Expert systems modeling for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation in agricultural systems at regional level

Australian agriculture is very susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, with major shifts in temperature and rainfall projected. In this context, this paper describes a research methodology for assessing potential climate change impacts on, and formulating adaptation options for, agriculture at regional level. The methodology was developed and applied in the analysis of climate change impacts on key horticultural commodities—pome fruits (apples and pears), stone fruits (peaches and nectarines) and wine grapes—in the Goulburn Broken catchment management region, State of Victoria, Australia. Core components of the methodology are mathematical models that enable to spatially represent the degree of biophysical land suitability for the growth of agricultural commodities in the region of interest given current and future climatic conditions. The methodology provides a sound analytic approach to 1) recognise regions under threat of declines in agricultural production due to unfolding climatic changes; 2) identify alternative agricultural systems better adapted to likely future climatic conditions and 3) investigate incremental and transformational adaptation actions to improve the problem situations that are being created by climate change.

Expert in my pocket: creating first person POV videos to enhance mobile learning

Worldwide, there has been a rapid increase in both the use of mobile technologies as a conduit for student learning and the use of wearable cameras to record sporting and recreational activities. The Expert in My Pocket project (EiMP) has combined these two technologies to produce a repository of freely available short videos and supporting materials to enhance student development of psychomotor clinical skills. The videos are presented from a first person point of view (1PPOV) with expert health professionals ‘thinking aloud’ as they demonstrate selected skills. Research indicates that students and educators overwhelmingly support the concept of EiMP videos and more importantly value the 1PPOV as an authentic view. This paper demonstrates the techniques and equipment employed to produce these videos, which consisted of a chest or head mounted GoPro camera operated via an iPad. Additionally, the paper explains another innovative feature, Quick Response (QR) Codes, that when linked to the videos placed on equipment assists with “just in time” mobile learning.

Psychologists as expert witnesses in Australian courtrooms

Mental health professionals assist Australian courts and tribunals with explanations about human behaviour and mental processes related to offending behaviour. Contrary to other witnesses who are only allowed to give evidence in relation to what they directly heard or saw, mental health professionals are allowed to express opinions because they are recognised as expert witnesses with specialised knowledge. However, in Australia at least, little is known about how these expert witnesses are chosen and how they meet the requirements of possessing “specialised knowledge”. In this article, we provide a brief history of expert witnesses in the courtroom, including the use of psychologists as expert witnesses. We then highlight some of the concerns that legal professionals have raised about psychologists as expert witnesses in the limited number of studies that have been conducted in Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Finally, we raise questions about how psychologists are chosen to be expert witnesses in Australia and introduce directions for future research.

The Therapist as Client as Expert

`I enjoyed this book, and think that it should find a grateful and attentive readership in the practical field as well as being a central text in academic settings.

Use of expert knowledge to elicit population trends for the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus)

Aim: The koala is a widely distributed Australian marsupial with regional populations that are in rapid decline, are stable or have increased in size. This study examined whether it is possible to use expert elicitation to estimate abundance and trends of populations of this species. Diverse opinions exist about estimates of abundance and, consequently, the status of populations. Location: Eastern and south-eastern Australia Methods: Using a structured, four-step question format, a panel of 15 experts estimated population sizes of koalas and changes in those sizes for bioregions within four states. They provided their lowest plausible estimate, highest plausible estimate, best estimate and their degree of confidence that the true values were contained within these upper and lower estimates. We derived estimates of the mean population size of koalas and associated uncertainties for each bioregion and state. Results: On the basis of estimates of mean population sizes for each bioregion and state, we estimated that the total number of koalas for Australia is 329,000 (range 144,000-605,000) with an estimated average decline of 24% over the past three generations and the next three generations. Estimated percentage of loss in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia was 53%, 26%, 14% and 3%, respectively. Main conclusions: It was not necessary to achieve high levels of certainty or consensus among experts before making informed estimates. A quantitative, scientific method for deriving estimates of koala populations and trends was possible, in the absence of empirical data on abundances.

Expert teachers’ discursive moves in science classroom interactive talk

It is well established that teacher-student interactive talk is critically important in supporting students to reason and learn in science. Teachers’ discursive moves in responding to student input are keys to developing and supporting a rich vein of interactive discussion. While initiation-response-evaluation (IRE) sequences have been shown to dominate science classroom discourse patterns worldwide, teacher ‘prompts’ are important for opening up opportunities for reasoning and higher level learning. This paper describes the analysis of video sequences for five expert elementary teachers across three countries to develop a coding scheme for these teachers’ ‘discursive moves’ to guide and respond to student inputs, that unpacks more completely the strategies they use to develop interactive discussion. The analysis showed varied patterns of knowledge transaction, with teacher discursive moves serving three broad purposes: to elicit and acknowledge student responses, to clarify and to extend student ideas. The patterns of talk were also related to the dialogic-authoritative distinction in analysis of talk, to show that this distinction is only clear for particular types of expert practice. While the particular moves teachers use vary across parts of lessons we argue that they are revealing of teachers’ particular beliefs and of systemic constraints, and that there exist patterns in the use of the discursive categories that capture how expert teachers build deeper level knowledge in classroom interactive talk. We describe ways in which the analysis can inform science teacher education and the professional learning of teachers of science.

Providing culturally appropriate mental health first aid to an Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander adolescent: development of expert consensus guidelines

BACKGROUND: It is estimated that the prevalence of mental illness is higher in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adolescents compared to non-Aboriginal adolescents. Despite this, only a small proportion of Aboriginal youth have contact with mental health services, possibly due to factors such as remoteness, language barriers, affordability and cultural sensitivity issues. This research aimed to develop culturally appropriate guidelines for anyone who is providing first aid to an Australian Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander adolescent who is experiencing a mental health crisis or developing a mental illness.

METHODS: A panel of Australian Aboriginal people who are experts in Aboriginal youth mental health, participated in a Delphi study investigating how members of the public can be culturally appropriate when helping an Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander adolescent with mental health problems. The panel varied in size across the three sequential rounds, from 37-41 participants. Panellists were presented with statements about cultural considerations and communication strategies via online questionnaires and were encouraged to suggest additional content. All statements endorsed as either Essential or Important by ≥ 90% of panel members were written into a guideline document. To assess the panel members' satisfaction with the research method, participants were invited to provide their feedback after the final survey.

RESULTS: From a total of 304 statements shown to the panel of experts, 194 statements were endorsed. The methodology was found to be useful and appropriate by the panellists.

CONCLUSION: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Youth mental health experts were able to reach consensus about what the appropriate communication strategies for providing mental health first aid to an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander adolescent. These outcomes will help ensure that the community provides the best possible support to Aboriginal adolescents who are developing mental illnesses or are in a mental health crisis.

Helping someone with problem drinking: mental health first aid guidelines - a Delphi expert consensus study.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol is a leading risk factor for avoidable disease burden. Research suggests that a drinker's social network can play an integral role in addressing hazardous (i.e., high-risk) or problem drinking. Often however, social networks do not have adequate mental health literacy (i.e., knowledge about mental health problems, like problem drinking, or how to treat them). This is a concern as the response that a drinker receives from their social network can have a substantial impact on their willingness to seek help. This paper describes the development of mental health first aid guidelines that inform community members on how to help someone who may have, or may be developing, a drinking problem (i.e., alcohol abuse or dependence). METHODS: A systematic review of the research and lay literature was conducted to develop a 285-item survey containing strategies on how to help someone who may have, or may be developing, a drinking problem. Two panels of experts (consumers/carers and clinicians) individually rated survey items, using a Delphi process. Surveys were completed online or via postal mail. Participants were 99 consumers, carers and clinicians with experience or expertise in problem drinking from Australia, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Items that reached consensus on importance were retained and written into guidelines. RESULTS: The overall response rate across all three rounds was 68.7% (67.6% consumers/carers, 69.2% clinicians), with 184 first aid strategies rated as essential or important by > or =80% of panel members. The endorsed guidelines provide guidance on how to: recognize problem drinking; approach someone if there is concern about their drinking; support the person to change their drinking; respond if they are unwilling to change their drinking; facilitate professional help seeking and respond if professional help is refused; and manage an alcohol-related medical emergency. CONCLUSION: The guidelines provide a consensus-based resource for community members seeking to help someone with a drinking problem. Improving community awareness and understanding of how to identify and support someone with a drinking problem may lead to earlier recognition of problem drinking and greater facilitation of professional help seeking.

How should adjudicators deal with expert reports in Australia?

Since its introduction in to Australia fifteen years ago, statutory adjudication has become increasingly used by parties seeking to recover payment claims which are large in amount and technically and legally complex in nature. This has inevitably led to the formalisation of the adjudication process with parties often submitting, amongst other documents, expert witness reports to support their arguments. The increase in documentation that an adjudicator must consider poses a threat to the integrity of the adjudicator’s determination. This paper adopts a ‘black letter’ approach to distil the law concerning the way in which adjudicators should deal with expert reports, and reveals there are many pitfalls that an adjudicator should be aware of. Moving forward, this paper seeks to inform the PhD study of the lead author which eventually aims to formulate a roadmap with recommendations that may be applied to help optimise the various Australian adjudication schemes for the determination of large and/or complex payment claims.

An obligate beach bird selects sub-, inter- and supra-tidal habitat elements

Few habitat models are available for widespread, obligate, high-energy sandy shore vertebrates, such as the Eastern Hooded Plover Thinornis cucullatus cucullatus. We examined habitat attributes which determined the difference between sites where plovers breed and randomly-selected absence sites (determined from long-term systematic monitoring). A variety of habitat variables were derived from aerial photography and bathymetric and terrestrial Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) data. Logistic regression against eight candidate variables, in a model selection framework, revealed considerable support for four variables with respect to explaining the presence of breeding territories. In particular, the amount of unvegetated dune and foredune which was unvegetated, and the amount of intertidal and sub-tidal reef were positively associated with the presence of breeding territories. Thus, plovers apparently select certain habitat in which to breed, involving sub-tidal, intertidal and supra-tidal habitat elements. The model also helps explain the virtual absence of breeding plovers from long sections of superficially suitable habitat, such as the fourth longest continuous beach in the world.

Cost and feasibility of a barrier to halt the spread of invasive cane toads in arid Australia: incorporating expert knowledge into model-based decision-making

1. Active engagement with practitioners is a crucial component of model-based decision-making in conservation management; it can assist with data acquisition, improve models and help narrow the 'knowing-doing' gap.
2. We worked with practitioners of one of the worst invasive species in Australia, the cane toad Rhinella marina, to revise a model that estimates the effectiveness of landscape barriers to contain spread. The original model predicted that the invasion could be contained by managing artificial watering points on pastoral properties, but was initially met with scepticism by practitioners, in part due to a lack of engagement during model development.
3. We held a workshop with practitioners and experts in cane toad biology. Using structured decision-making, we elicited concerns about the original model, revised its structure, updated relevant input data, added an economic component and found the most cost-effective location for a barrier across a range of fixed budgets and management scenarios. We then conducted scenario analyses to test the sensitivity of management decisions to model revisions.
4. We found that toad spread could be contained for all of the scenarios tested. Our modelling suggests a barrier could cost $4·5 M (2015 AUD) over 50 years for the most likely landscape scenario. The incorporation of practitioner knowledge into the model was crucial. As well as improving engagement, when we incorporated practitioner concerns (particularly regarding the effects of irrigation and dwellings on toad spread), we found a different location for the optimal barrier compared to a previously published study (Tingley et al. 2013).
5. Synthesis and applications. Through engagement with practitioners, we turned an academic modelling exercise into a decision-support tool that integrated local information, and considered more realistic scenarios and constraints. Active engagement with practitioners led to productive revisions of a model that estimates the effectiveness of a landscape barrier to contain spread of the invasive cane toad R. marina. Benefits also include greater confidence in model predictions, improving our assessment of the cost and feasibility of containing the spread of toads.