The Samuelson hypothesis in futures markets : an analysis using intraday data

This paper considers the Samuelson hypothesis, which argues that the futures price volatility increases as the futures contract approaches its expiration. Utilizing intraday data from 20 futures markets in six futures exchanges, we find strong support for the Samuelson hypothesis in agricultural futures. However, the Samuelson hypothesis does not hold for other futures contracts. We also provide supporting evidence that the ‘negative covariance’ hypothesis is the key factor for the empirical support of the Samuelson hypothesis. In addition, our findings remain largely unaltered even after we control for seasonality and liquidity effects.

Realized volatility and correlation in grain futures markets: testing for spillover effects

Fluctuations in commodity prices are a major concern to many market participants. This paper uses realized volatility methods to calculate daily volatility and correlation estimates for three grain futures prices (corn, soybean, and wheat). The realized volatility estimates exhibit properties consistent with the stylized facts observed in earlier studies. According to daily realized correlations and regression coefficients, the spot returns from the three grain futures are positively related. The realized estimates are then used to evaluate the degree of volatility transmission across grain futures prices. The impulse response analysis is conducted by fitting the vector autoregressive model to realized volatility and correlation estimates, using the bootstrap method for statistical inference. The results indicate that rich dynamic interactions exist among the volatilities and correlations across the grain futures markets.

The trading dynamics of close-substitute futures markets : evidence of margin policy spillover effects

Volatility spillover is well documented among closely related securities. I investigate the relationship between margin policy and trading dynamics of the Nikkei 225 index futures markets of Osaka Securities Exchange (OSE) and Singapore Exchange (SGX). I find that OSE’s margin policy influences trading dynamics across both markets, although it is the less liquid SGX market that performs price discovery. This suggests that policy markers of close substitute markets should coordinate, or at least communicate policy intentions due to policy spillover. SGX’s market design facilitates price discovery, suggesting that a microstructure framework capable of overcoming the liquidity entry barrier is of interest to any futures exchange contemplating contract proliferation.

Understanding cange in residential property markets: Mapping residency of employment data

The changing nature of residential housing markets is due to a large number of influences, although some have a larger effect than others do on house values. Whilst it is extremely difficult to completely disaggregate all influencing factors, it is possible to highlight areas that have a strong relationship with property – one of these is residency of employment. This research investigates these links between residential housing markets as measured by the level of house prices and residency of employment as measured by industry sector employment. It focuses on Local Government Areas in the State of Victoria, Australia and examines change over a ten year period between 1991 and 2001 using census and house price information. It is supported by data sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Victorian Government’s Valuer General’s Office. The analysis also considers changes in these employment sectors from Australia’s overall perspective, as well as comparison with changes in Victoria’s overall residency of employment trends. It is assisted by a spatial representation of three 'shift-share' components and property values with the support of a geographical information system (GIS).

The cyclical nature of residential housing markets

Cycles are an integral part of most capitalist societies. They are openly acknowledged and researched in certain real estate segments, such as the commercial office market. Although the 'seven year cycle' is often discussed in regards to residential real estate, there has been relatively little research undertaken in this area. Therefore this paper seeks to fill this void by commencing an investigation into residential housing market cycles. It commences with an overview of established theories in cycle research. An analysis of a large number of Brisbane suburbs over an extended time period was then undertaken using Fourier Analysis. The results suggested cycles were observed in a number of Brisbane suburbs, with consideration also given to differences in spatial patterns and property values.

Factors influencing the rent vs. buy decision - implications for housing markets

This paper considers recent trends in regards to home ownership versus renting in the Australia housing market.

Investigating residential property markets using employment data

The changing nature of residential housing markets is due to a large number of influences, although some factors have a larger effect than others on house values. Whilst it is extremely difficult to completely disaggregate all influencing factors, it is possible to highlight areas that have a strong relationship with property – one of these is employment. Due to the growing importance between housing affordability and the capacity to meet the cost of living the form of regular mortgage repayments or rent, there are clear links between the cost of housing and the ability to pay for the housing product.

The research investigates the links between residential housing markets as measured by the level of house prices and employment as measured by industry sector employment. It focuses on Local Government Areas in the State of Victoria, Australia and examines change over a ten year period between 1991 and 2001 using census and house price information. It is supported by data sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics and the Victorian Government’s Valuer General’s Office. The analysis also considers changes in these employment sectors from Australia’s overall perspective, as well as comparison with changes in Victoria’s overall employment trends. It is assisted by a spatial representation of three shiftshare components and property values with the assistance of a geographical information system (GIS).

Economic transition and commercial property markets : China and Poland

This paper discusses the economic transition and the property market emergence in transition economies. It compares the Chinese property market with the Polish market. It preliminarily examines market emergence and maturity in the context of economic transition, comparing the transitions with the emphasis placed on commercial property markets especially their formation and behaviour. Supply and demand for commercial space in China and Poland are also contrasted. As commercial property market behaviour is somewhat driven by market structure formation process and the business cycle, the transition has provided a “common ground” that enables similarities between the property markets in China and Poland. The challenge for state intervention is mainly due to the agency problem which is also a problem in mature markets; it appears that transitional economies do share common features in their emerging property markets. This paper suggests state intervention in market formation and emergence is necessary and essential. However the actual formation and behaviour of property markets have some distinctive characteristics. Value or implication of the study include: knowing the stage of market emergence is essential for making investment decisions, especially when identifying markets with varying backgrounds. This paper is also relevant to policy-makers in the process of facilitating transitions in emerging markets.

Wireless broadcast encryption based on smart cards

Wireless broadcasting is an efficient way to broadcast data to a large number of users. Some commercial applications of wireless broadcasting, such as satellite pay-TV, desire that only those users who have paid for the service can retrieve broadcast data. This is often achieved by broadcast encryption, which allows a station securely to broadcast data to a dynamically changing set of privileged users through open air. Most existing broadcast encryption schemes can only revoke a pre-specified number of users before system re-setup or require high computation, communication and storage overheads in receivers. In this paper, we propose a new broadcast encryption scheme based on smart cards. In our scheme, smart cards are used to prevent users from leaking secret keys. Additionally, once an illegally cloned smart card is captured, our scheme also allows tracing of the compromised smart card by which illegal smart cards are cloned, and can then revoke all cloned smart cards. The new features of our scheme include minimal computation needs of only a few modular multiplications in the smart card, and the capability to revoke up to any number of users in one revocation. Furthermore, our scheme is secure against both passive and active attacks and has better performance than other schemes.

Healthy markets - healthy people/ : reforming health care in Cambodia

Health care reform has been described as a global epidemic. This thesis deals with nature and experience of health care reform in developing countries. Increasing privatisation, economic transition, and structural adjustment have provided the context for health system changes. Different approaches to reform have been developed by international organisations such as the World Bank, WHO and UNICEF. What has driven national health care reforms? Are such policies really appropriate to developing countries? Has a consensus now emerged in relation to international health policy? Has a new health care ‘model’ appeared? The study of health care reform in Cambodia is a timely opportunity to investigate the implementation of health care reform under extreme conditions. These conditions include a legacy of genocide, long-term conflict, political isolation, and economic transition. This case study uses both qualitative and quantitative methods and multiple sources of data to analyse the reform program. The study reinforces the conclusion that, under conditions of extreme poverty, market based reforms are likely to have limited positive impact. Rather, understanding the cultural conditions that determine demand, delivering health care of a satisfactory quality, providing appropriate incentives for health practitioners, and supporting services with adequate public funding are the prerequisites for improved service delivery and utilisation. Cambodia's strategy of integrated district health service development and universal population coverage may provide an instructive example of reform. Emerging policy issues identified by this case study include the fundamental role of equity in service provision, the influence of the social determinants of health and illness and interest in the appropriate use of evidence in international health policy-making.

Household composition and housing expenditures in rental-occupied and owner-occupied markets

This article examines the relationship between household compositions and housing expenditures in rental-occupied and owner-occupied markets. The author finds that renters allocate their budget proportionately between housing and nonhousing goods for an additional household member, leaving the budget share of housing expenditures unchanged. For homeowners, nevertheless, an extra member implies a reduction in housing expenditures as a share of total budget. Although age and gender compositions turn out to be significant in determining the budget share of housing expenditures for renters, they play no major role for homeowners. And although an increase in the number of working members for renters significantly reduces the share of budget spent on housing, it has no significant impact for their owner counterparts. Moreover, keeping total expenditures constant, the main income source of the head of the household does not make any difference in terms of resource allocation across housing and nonhousing goods for both renters and owners.

Sources of liquidity commonality, asymmetric information and ownership structure in emerging markets : evidence from the Chinese stock market

Xinwei Zheng examines if common factors of liquidity can be determined by ownership structure measured by asymmetric information in an emerging market that has adopted an order-driven trading system. Using China as a case for the study, I select a broad sample of stocks from two separate Chinese stock exchanges to measure and
analyse the relationship. My empirical evidence seems significant and pervasive. These findings about the Chinese stock market provide useful pointers for understanding commonality in emerging economies and shed critical light
on a new dimension of the working of emerging markets.