Analysis of circadian rhythms from online communities of individuals with affective disorders

The circadian system regulates 24 hour rhythms in biological creatures. It impacts mood regulation. The disruptions of circadian rhythms cause destabilization in individuals with affective disorders, such as depression and bipolar disorders. Previous work has examined the role of the circadian system on effects of light interactions on mood-related systems, the effects of light manipulation on brain, the impact of chronic stress on rhythms. However, such studies have been conducted in small, preselected populations. The deluge of data is now changing the landscape of research practice. The unprecedented growth of social media data allows one to study individual behavior across large and diverse populations. In particular, individuals with affective disorders from online communities have not been examined rigorously. In this paper, we aim to use social media as a sensor to identify circadian patterns for individuals with affective disorders in online communities.We use a large scale study cohort of data collecting from online affective disorder communities. We analyze changes in hourly, daily, weekly and seasonal affect of these clinical groups in contrast with control groups of general communities. By comparing the behaviors between the clinical groups and the control groups, our findings show that individuals with affective disorders show a significant distinction in their circadian rhythms across the online activity. The results shed light on the potential of using social media for identifying diurnal individual variation in affective state, providing key indicators and risk factors for noninvasive wellbeing monitoring and prediction.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery. METHODS: We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values. FINDINGS: 292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland. INTERPRETATION: Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A note on the use of the LLC panel unit root test

One of the single most cited studies within the field of nonstationary panel data analysis is that of LLC (Levin et al. in J Econom 98:1 - 24, 2002), in which the authors propose a test for a common unit root in the panel. Using both theoretical arguments and simulation evidence, we show that this test can be misleading unless it is based on the same bandwidth selection rule used by LLC. © Springer-Verlag 2008.

The effect of recursive detrending on panel unit root tests

This paper analyzes the properties of panel unit root tests based on recursively detrended data. The analysis is conducted while allowing for a (potentially) non-linear trend function, which represents a more general consideration than the current state of affairs with (at most) a linear trend. A new test statistic is proposed whose asymptotic behavior under the unit root null hypothesis, and the simplifying assumptions of a polynomial trend and iid errors are shown to be surprisingly simple. Indeed, the test statistic is not only asymptotically independent of the true trend polynomial, but also is in fact unique in that it is independent also of the degree of the fitted polynomial. However, this invariance property does not carry over to the local alternative, under which it is shown that local power is a decreasing function of the trend degree. But while power does decrease, the rate of shrinking of the local alternative is generally constant in the trend degree, which goes against the common belief that the rate of shrinking should be decreasing in the trend degree. The above results are based on simplifying assumptions. To compensate for this lack of generality, a second, robust, test statistic is proposed, whose validity does not require that the trend function is a polynomial or that the errors are iid.

The asymptotic distribution of the CADF unit root test in the presence of heterogeneous AR(p) errors

The CADF test of Pesaran (J Appl Econ 22:265–312, 2007) are among the most popular univariate tests for cross-section correlated panels around. Yet, the existing asymptotic analysis of this test statistic is limited to a model in which the errors are assumed to follow a simple AR(1) structure with homogenous autoregressive coefficients. One reason for this is that the model involves an intricate identification issue, as both the serial and cross-section correlation structures of the errors are unobserved. The purpose of the current paper is to tackle this issue and in so doing extend the existing analysis to the case of AR((Formula presented.)) errors with possibly heterogeneous coefficients.

A note on the pooling of individual panic unit root tests

One of the most cited studies in recent years within the field of nonstationary panel data analysis is that of Bai and Ng (2004), in which the authors propose PANIC, a new framework for analyzing the nonstationarity of panels with idiosyncratic and common components. The problem is that the asymptotic validity of PANIC as a platform for constructing pooled panel unit root tests based on averaging is not fully proven. This paper provides the required results, whose usefulness is verified through simulations. © 2009 Cambridge University Press.

Noncommunicable disease prevention and control in Mongolia: a policy analysis

BACKGROUND: Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are the major global cause of morbidity and mortality. In Mongolia, a number of health policies have been developed targeting the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases. This paper aimed to evaluate the extent to which NCD-related policies introduced in Mongolia align with the World Health Organization (WHO) 2008-2013 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. METHODS: We conducted a review of policy documents introduced by the Government of Mongolia from 2000 to 2013. A literature review, internet-based search, and expert consultation identified the policy documents. Information was extracted from the documents using a matrix, mapping each document against the six objectives of the WHO 2008-2013 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs and five dimensions: data source, aim and objectives of document, coverage of conditions, coverage of risk factors and implementation plan. 45 NCD-related policies were identified. RESULTS: Prevention and control of the common NCDs and their major risk factors as described by WHO were widely addressed, and policies aligned well with the objectives of the WHO 2008-2013 Action Plan for the Global Strategy for the Prevention and Control of NCDs. Many documents included explicit implementation or monitoring frameworks. It appears that each objective of the WHO 2008-2013 NCD Action Plan was well addressed. Specific areas less well and/or not addressed were chronic respiratory disease, physical activity guidelines and dietary standards. CONCLUSIONS: The Mongolian Government response to the emerging burden of NCDs is a population-based public health approach that includes a national multisectoral framework and integration of NCD prevention and control policies into national health policies. Our findings suggest gaps in addressing chronic respiratory disease, physical activity guidelines, specific food policy actions restricting sales advertising of food products, and a lack of funding specifically supporting NCD research. The neglect of these areas may hamper addressing the NCD burden, and needs immediate action. Future research should explore the effectiveness of national NCD policies and the extent to which the policies are implemented in practice.

Disentangling the cause of a catastrophic population decline in a large marine mammal

Considerable uncertainties often surround the causes of long-term changes in population abundance. One striking example is the precipitous decline of southern sea lions (SSL; Otariaflavescens) at the Falkland Islands, from 80 555 pups in the mid 1930s to just 5506 pups in 1965. Despite an increase in SSL abundance over the past two decades, the population has not recovered, with the number of pups born in 2014 (minimum 4443 pups) less than 6% of the 1930s estimate. The order-of-magnitude decline is primarily attributed to commercial sealing in Argentina. Here, we test this established paradigm and alternative hypotheses by assessing (1) commercial sealing at the Falkland Islands, (2) winter migration of SSL from the Falkland Islands to Argentina, (3) whether the number of SSL in Argentina could have sustained the reported level of exploitation, and (4) environmental change. The most parsimonious hypothesis explaining the SSL population decline was environmental change. Specifically, analysis of 160 years of winter sea surface temperatures revealed marked changes, including a period of warming between 1930 and 1950 that was consistent with the period of SSL decline. Sea surface temperature changes likely influenced the distribution or availability of SSL prey and impacted its population dynamics. We suggest that historical harvesting may not always be the "smoking gun" as is often purported. Rather, our conclusions support the growing evidence for bottom-up forcing on the abundance of species at lower trophic levels (e.g., plankton and fish) and resulting impacts on higher trophic levels across a broad range of ecosystems.

Marine object detection using background modelling and blob analysis

Monitoring marine object is important for understanding the marine ecosystem and evaluating impacts on different environmental changes. One prerequisite of monitoring is to identify targets of interest. Traditionally, the target objects are recognized by trained scientists through towed nets and human observation, which cause much cost and risk to operators and creatures. In comparison, a noninvasive way via setting up a camera and seeking objects in images is more promising. In this paper, a novel technique of object detection in images is presented, which is applicable to generic objects. A robust background modelling algorithm is proposed to extract foregrounds and then blob features are introduced to classify foregrounds. Particular marine objects, box jellyfish and sea snake, are successfully detected in our work. Experiments conducted on image datasets collected by the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed technique.

Human threats to sandy beaches: a meta-analysis of ghost crabs illustrates global anthropogenic impacts

Beach and coastal dune systems are increasingly subjected to a broad range of anthropogenic pressures that on many shorelines require significant conservation and mitigation interventions. But these interventions require reliable data on the severity and frequency of adverse ecological impacts. Such evidence is often obtained by measuring the response of 'indicator species'.Ghost crabs are the largest invertebrates inhabiting tropical and subtropical sandy shores and are frequently used to assess human impacts on ocean beaches. Here we present the first global meta-analysis of these impacts, and analyse the design properties and metrics of studies using ghost-crabs in their assessment. This was complemented by a gap analysis to identify thematic areas of anthropogenic pressures on sandy beach ecosystems that are under-represented in the published literature.Our meta-analysis demonstrates a broad geographic reach, encompassing studies on shores of the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans, as well as the South China Sea. It also reveals what are, arguably, two major limitations: i) the near-universal use of proxies (i.e. burrow counts to estimate abundance) at the cost of directly measuring biological traits and bio-markers in the organism itself; and ii) descriptive or correlative study designs that rarely extend beyond a simple 'compare and contrast approach', and hence fail to identify the mechanistic cause(s) of observed contrasts.Evidence for a historically narrow range of assessed pressures (i.e., chiefly urbanisation, vehicles, beach nourishment, and recreation) is juxtaposed with rich opportunities for the broader integration of ghost crabs as a model taxon in studies of disturbance and impact assessments on ocean beaches. Tangible advances will most likely occur where ghost crabs provide foci for experiments that test specific hypotheses associated with effects of chemical, light and acoustic pollution, as well as the consequences of climate change (e.g. species range shifts).

Functional genomic analysis of systemic cell division regulation in legumes

Legumes develop root nodules from pluripotent stem cells in the rootpericycle in response to mitogenic activation by a decorated chitin-likenodulation factor synthesized in Rhizobium bacteria. The soybean genes encoding the receptor for such signals were cloned using map-based cloning approaches. Pluripotent cells in the root pericycle and the outer or inner cortex undergo repeated cell divisions to initiate a composite nodule primordium that develops to a functional nitrogen-fixing nodule. The process itself is autoregulated, leading to the characteristic nodulation of the upper root system. Autoregulation of nodulation (AON) in all legumes is controlled in part by a leucine-rich repeat receptor kinase gene (GmNARK). Mutations of GmNARK, and its other legume orthologues, result in abundant nodulation caused by the loss of a yet-undefined negative nodulation repressor system. AON receptor kinases are involved in perception of a long distance, root-derived signal, to negatively control nodule proliferation. GmNARK and LjHAR1 are expressed in phloem parenchyma. GmNARK kinase domain interacts with Kinase Associated Protein Phosphatase (KAPP). NARK gene expression did not mirror biological NARK activity in nodulation control, as q-RT-PCR in soybean revealed high NARK expression in roots, root tips, leaves, petioles, stems and hypocotyls, while shoot and root apical meristems were devoid of NARK RNA. High through-put transcript analysis in soybean leaf and root indicated that major genes involved in JA synthesis or response are preferentially down-regulated in leaf but not root of wild type, but not NARK mutants, suggesting that AON signaling may in part be controlled by events relating to hormone metabolism. Ethylene and abscisic acid insensitive mutants of L. japonicus are described. Nodulation in legumes has significance to global economies and ecologies, as the nitrogen input into the biosphere allows food, feed and biofuel production without the inherent costs associated with nitrogen fertilization [1]. Nodulation involves the production of a new organ capable of nitrogen fixation [2] and as such is an excellent system to study plant – microbe interaction, plant development, long distance signaling and functional genomics of stem cell proliferation [3, 4]. Concerted international effort over the last 20 years, using a combination of induced mutagenesis followed by gene discovery (forward genetics), and molecular/biochemical approaches revealed a complex developmental pathway that ‘loans’ genetic programs from various sources and orchestrates these into a novel contribution. We report our laboratory’s contribution to the present analysis in the field.

The influence of various seat design parameters: a computational analysis

Nowadays, low back pain becomes a common healthcare problem. Poor or unsuitable seat design is related to the discomfort and other healthcare problems of users. The aim of this study is to investigate the influence of seat design variables on the compressive loadings of lumbar joints. A basis that includes a musculoskeletal human body model and a chair model has been developed using LifeMOD Biomechanics Modeller. Inverse and forward dynamic simulations have been performed for various seat design parameters. The results show that the inclination of backrest and seat pan may or may not decrease the compressive spinal joint forces, depending on other conditions. The medium-level height and depth of seat pan and the medium-level and high-level height of backrest are found to cause the minimum compressive loads on lumbar joints. This work contributes to a better understanding of sitting biomechanics and provides some useful guidelines for seat design.