Are shocks to real output permanent or transitory? Evidence from a panel of Pacific Island countries

Panel unit root and stationarity tests without structural breaks suggest that for eight Pacific island economies real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita contains a unit root. The panel stationarity test that accommodates structural change in the trend function, however, finds evidence in favour of regimewise trend stationarity. This result points to the importance of taking structural breaks into account. The finding implies that, for the period considered, the permanent secular component of output is dominated by transitory fluctuations accompanied by infrequent changes in the trend function. The only exceptions are Fiji and Kiribati, for which individual stationarity tests with multiple structural breaks suggest that real GDP per capita contains a unit root.

Impact of past and future residential housing development patterns on energy demand and related emissions

The continued outward growth from a central business district has been the dominant characteristic of most cities in Australia. However, this feature is seen as unsustainable and alternative scenarios to contain the outward growth are being proposed. Melbourne is currently grappling with this issue while simultaneously trying to reduce per capita greenhouse gas emissions. Housing size, style and its location are the three principal factors which determine the emissions from the residential sector. This paper describes a methodology to assess the combined impact of these factors on past and possible future forms of residential development in Melbourne. The analysis found that the location of the housing and its size are the dominant factors determining energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.

Energy and greenhouse gas emissions implications of alternative housing types for Australia

Many cities around the world are looking for ways to reduce their per capita greenhouse gas emissions. The outward growth of cities from a central business district, typical of many cities around the world, is often seen as working against this goal and as unsustainable. This is especially the case in circumstances where this growth is not supported by the necessary infrastructure, often resulting in an increase in the use of private transport. However, alternative scenarios to contain the outward growth are being proposed. This paper provides a comparison of the energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions between typical detached outer-suburban housing currently being built in Australia's major cities and inner-city and -suburban apartments, which are increasingly seen as a legitimate alternative to the housing that is currently being built on our outer city fringes. By analysing the energy demand associated with the construction and operation of each housing type and for occupant travel it was found that the location of the housing and its size are the dominant factors determining energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. The findings from this analysis provide useful information for policy-makers in planning the development of our cities into the future, when faced with a growing population and an increasing need to minimise greenhouse gas emissions.

A nonlinear approach to testing the unit root null hypothesis : an application to international health expenditures

In this article, we examine the unit root null hypothesis for per capita total Health Expenditures (HEs), per capita private HEs and per capita public HEs for 29 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. The novelty of our work is that we use a new nonlinear unit root test that allows for one structural break in the data series. We find that for around 45% of the countries, we are able to reject the unit root hypothesis for each of the three HE series. Moreover, using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that our proposed unit root model has better size and power properties than the widely used Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) and Lagrange Multiplier (LM) type tests.

Why is Chinese provincial output diverging?

In a recent paper Pedroni and Yao (2006) present strong evidence suggesting that Chinese provincial per-capita output is diverging, a result that goes against the Chinese government’s goal of a balanced wealth-creation across provinces. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the reasoning behind this finding. Our main result is that the divergence does exist, even when new data and more advanced methods of analysis are used. We also find that it has both an idiosyncratic and a common component. Hence, the increased per-capita output inequalities observed at the provincial level is due to both province-specific disparities and to disparities between groups of provinces.

The importance of extinguishing secondhand smoke

Government policies have enormous influence on the health of nations. Arguably, this is illustrated most vividly with tobacco control. However, smoking continues to be a global problem and the major cause of preventable death. The countries with the highest per-capita smoking prevalence rates include (alphabetically) Bangladesh (20.9% of adults), Brazil (16.2% of adults), China (31.4% of adults), Germany (27.2% of adults), India (32.7% of men, 1.4% of women), Indonesia (34.5% of adults), Japan (43.3% of men and 12% of women), the Russian Federation (60.4% of men, 15.5% of women), Turkey (34.6%), and the United States(23.2%).1 Prevalence rates among younger people vary, but in the United States, 18.4% of youths still smoke.

Towards a standardised methodology for estimating alcohol-caused death, injury and illness in Australia

Two key methodological issues underlying different methods for calculating estimates of the number of alcohol-caused deaths are identified and recommendations suggested for future work.

1. How to adjust alcohol aetiologic fractions across time and place to reflect different levels of risky drinking. A common approach is outlined for both acute and chronic alcohol-related conditions. In the absence of consistent, reliable and regionally specific measures of the prevalence of risky alcohol consumption from national surveys, the use of per capita consumption data as a means of adjusting alcohol population aetiologic fractions over time and across regions is recommended.

2. Whether abstainers or low-risk drinkers should be used as the reference group when assessing the impact of alcohol consumption and how the resulting information is best presented. It is recommended that when abstainers are used as the reference group, the costs and benefits for both 'low-risk' and 'risky/high-risk' drinking should be identified. Using this approach, it was estimated that for Australia in 1998 there was a net benefit of 5,100 lives saved due to low-risk drinking, while there was a net loss of 2,737 lives due to risky/high-risk drinking. On its own, the figure of a net saving of 2,363 lives per year is a simplistic and potentially misleading picture of alcohol as a net benefit to public health and safety. For public health communications, there is still value in providing estimates using the low-risk drinking contrast, of the number of lives saved if risky/high-risk drinkers all became low-risk drinkers (n=3,292 in 1998). The use of the abstinence contrast, however, allows the more complex picture of alcohol's impact on public health to be apparent, e.g. including the estimated 1,505 deaths associated with low-risk drinking (mostly from cancer).

From cholera outbreaks to pandemics : the role of poverty and inequality

Cholera and other diarrheal diseases are the second leading cause of death among the poor globally. The tragedy of this statistic is that it need not be the case. Unlike many afflictions, the impact of cholera can be greatly reduced, if not eliminated, through the provision of clean water services. This begs the question of why such provision is absent in much of the world. It is our contention that the provision of clean water services is an increasing function of both a country's level of income and income equality. We test these hypotheses by analyzing 1,032 annual observations arising from 55 relatively poor countries between the years 1980 and 2002. In the primary part of the analysis, we find that providing clean water is, as predicted, an increasing function of income and equality. Following this, and consistent with the existing epidemiological research on cholera, we find that both the numbers of cases and deaths resulting from a given cholera outbreak are strongly and negatively related to the provision of clean water.

Urban growth in arid environments : developing water sustainability indicators for Abu Dhabi (UAE)

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) face a serious water problem. It has a very dry climate, high evaporation rate, combined with large water consumption from fast growing population, economic activities and uncontrolled uses of water for irrigation. Currently, UAE has one of the largest water footprints in the world. Groundwater is overexploited. Waste water is increasingly being treated to supply non-drinking water, but it still cover a small proportion of the demand. Desalination of sea water is the main source of potable water in UAE, but the high economic cost of desalination, its intensive energy demand and the adverse effects of its effluents on the marine life are a major concern. Other factors contributing to the problem are the focus of water management policies on keep supplying the growing demand for water, the increase of the per capita water consumption, and the free water charge for most of population. This research goal is to develop a water sustainability set of indicators for the challenging context of UAE. This paper presents the first stage of the research. Based on a review of the literature, the proposed framework involves 19 indicators, divided into four categories: water availability; water quality; water use efficiency; and policy and governance. Using an integrated cause-effect approach (DSR - Driving force, State, Response), the indicators were related in terms of their interdependencies, with a holistic view of the city water cycle. A preliminary test of the indicators to Abu Dhabi as a case study allowed an evaluation of the main 'Driving force' on the system, such as the scarcity of water due to natural constraints of the region, and increasing water consumption patterns of modern society; an assessment of the current 'state', which is under serious water stress. Also it indicated some potential 'responses', such as implementing policies for increasing efficient use.

The determinants of economic growth versus genuine progress in South Korea

This paper examines whether the drivers of economic growth are the same as those for genuine progress in the case of South Korea. Using data covering the period 1970–2005, the paper first constructs a Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI). An empirical model is then specified and estimated using growth in GDP per capita and growth in the GPI per capita as dependent variables. Results indicate that while physical capital, research and development, exports, and inflation are all important in determining growth in GDP per capita, only physical capital is a driver of genuine progress. These findings highlight the need for policymakers to identify and target other determinants of genuine progress to improve the well-being of South Koreans, rather than focus attention on traditional sources of economic growth.

Lessons from the greenest city

In 2007, the City of Växjö in Sweden was voted the greenest city in Europe. Over an 18-year period, greenhouse gas emissions per resident have been reduced by 41%. How has Växjö achieved this impressive result and are there any lessons that could be transferred to Australian cities? This paper describes research which compares Växjö with the Victorian City of Ballarat. The research shows that per capita emissions for Ballarat are 133% higher than those in Växjö. Upgrading the typical Ballarat home to a 6-star rating, and installing a gas-boosted solar water heater and 4.0 kW PV system on the roof could reduce per capita emissions to similar levels to those in Växjö.

Does coloniality improve foraging efficiency and nestling provisioning? A field experiment in the wild Zebra Finch

The foraging benefits of coloniality, whereby colony members exchange information about food location, have been suggested as a primary factor influencing the evolution of coloniality. However, despite its longstanding popularity, this hypothesis has rarely been tested experimentally. Here, we conducted a field experiment in the wild Zebra Finch Taeniopygia guttata to test whether colonial birds are better at finding food than solitary individuals. We manipulated food patch location and directly measured foraging activity of many colonial and solitary parents at those patches using an electronic monitoring system. We provided nesting sites in excess to alleviate nest site competition and manipulated brood size to eliminate the possible correlation between brood size, nesting density, and individual quality (including foraging activity). We found that solitary birds found experimental food patches first, closely followed by colonial birds. Moreover, solitary parents adjusted the amount of food per nestling to experimental brood size, whereas colonial parents did not, although overall, nestlings were fed more per capita in colonial than in solitary nests. In addition, brood size and, to a lesser extent, nesting density negatively affected nestling growth. Therefore, with the effect of provisioning rate, sibling competition, and cost of coloniality combined, nestling mass was not affected by the brood manipulation in solitary nests, whereas nestlings were lighter in enlarged than in reduced broods in colonies. Our results therefore suggest that individuals settling in solitary nests were intrinsically better foragers and more optimal parents. While they do not invalidate the possibility of information transfer at colonies, our findings highlight the importance of considering settlement bias in future studies and add to the existing evidence that the effects of nesting density on fitness are both complex and multiple.

An international survey of toric contact lens prescribing

To characterize toric contact lens prescribing worldwide. Up to 1,000 survey forms were sent to contact lens fitters in up to 39 countries between January and March every year for 5 consecutive years (2007–2011). Practitioners were asked to record data relating to the first 10 contact lens fits or refits performed after receiving the survey form. Only data for toric and spherical soft lens fits were analyzed. Survey data collected since 1996 were also analyzed for 7 nations to assess toric lens fitting trends since that time. Data were collected in relation to 21,150 toric fits (25%) and 62,150 spherical fits (75%). Toric prescribing ranged from 6% of lenses in Russia to 48% in Portugal. Compared with spherical fittings, toric fittings can be characterized as follows: older age (29.8 ± 11.4 years vs. 27.6 ± 10.8 years for spherical lenses); men are overrepresented (38% vs. 34%); greater proportion of new fits (39% vs. 32%); use of silicone hydrogel lenses (49% vs. 39%); and lower proportion of daily disposable lenses (14% vs. 28%). There has been a continuous increase in toric lens prescribing between 1996 and 2011. The proportion of toric lens fits was positively related to the gross domestic product at purchasing power parity per capita for year 2011 (r2 = 0.21; P=0.004). At the present time, in the majority of countries surveyed, toric soft contact lens prescribing falls short of that required to correct clinically significant astigmatism (≥0.75 diopters) in all lens wearers.

An international survey of daily disposable contact lens prescribing

The aim was to determine the extent of daily disposable contact lens prescribing worldwide and to characterise the associated demographics and fitting patterns. Up to 1,000 survey forms were sent to contact lens fitters in up to 40 countries between January and March every year for five consecutive years (2007 to 2011). Practitioners were asked to record data relating to the first 10 contact lens fits or refits performed after receiving the survey form. Survey data collected since 1996 were also analysed for seven nations to assess daily disposable lens fitting trends since that time. Data were collected in relation to 97,289 soft lens fits, of which 23,445 (24.1 per cent) were with daily disposable lenses and 73,170 (75.9 per cent) were with reusable lenses. Daily disposable lens prescribing ranged from 0.6 per cent of all soft lenses in Nepal to 66.2 per cent in Qatar. Compared with reusable lens fittings, daily disposable lens fittings can be characterised as follows: older age (30.0 ± 12.5 versus 29.3 ± 12.3 years for reusable lenses); males are over-represented; a greater proportion of new fits versus refits; 85.9 per cent hydrogel; lower proportion of toric and presbyopia designs and a higher proportion of part-time wear. There has been a continuous increase in daily disposable lens prescribing between 1996 and 2011. The proportion of daily disposable lens fits (as a function of all soft lens fits) is positively related to the gross domestic product at purchasing power parity per capita (r(2) = 0.55, F = 46.8, p < 0.0001). The greater convenience and other benefits of daily disposable lenses have resulted in this modality capturing significant market share. The contact lens field appears to be heading toward a true single-use-only, disposable lens market.

Energy consumption at the state level: the unit root null hypothesis from Australia

In this paper, our goal is to examine the unit root null hypothesis in energy consumption for Australian states and territory. We consider sectoral energy consumption for Australia and its six states and one territory using time series data for the period 1973-2007. This is the first study that does this. Generally, except for some cases in South Australia, we find strong support that shocks to energy consumption have a temporary effect on energy consumption in Australia. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.