Characteristics of Mentally Disordered Youth Referred to a Forensic Satellite Clinic for Violence Risk Assessment: A Case Control Study

There is a lack of appropriate services to manage youth with comorbid mental health problems and violence risks. To address this gap, we implemented a forensic satellite clinic in a youth mental health service. This paper characterises offending histories among 45 young patients referred to the clinic, and compares them with matched clinical controls (n = 45). Levels of prior risk taking and aggression were prominent among referred patients. Forensic cases and controls did not differ on demographic and clinical variables, with the exception of psychiatric inpatient admissions, which were higher among referred patients. Group differences were observed for prior offending variables (e.g., physical aggression), which were significantly higher among referred patients than controls. Findings suggest that referrals were made to the clinic based on challenging and aggressive behaviour rather than specific clinical characteristics. The role of specialist assessment, treatment and management of violence risks in youth mental health services are discussed.

Transitioning to routine breast cancer risk assessment and management in primary care: what can we learn from cardiovascular disease?

To capitalise on advances in breast cancer prevention, all women would need to have their breast cancer risk formally assessed. With ~85% of Australians attending primary care clinics at least once a year, primary care is an opportune location for formal breast cancer risk assessment and management. This study assessed the current practice and needs of primary care clinicians regarding assessment and management of breast cancer risk. Two facilitated focus group discussions were held with 17 primary care clinicians (12 GPs and 5 practice nurses (PNs)) as part of a larger needs assessment. Primary care clinicians viewed assessment and management of cardiovascular risk as an intrinsic, expected part of their role, often triggered by practice software prompts and facilitated by use of an online tool. Conversely, assessment of breast cancer risk was not routine and was generally patient- (not clinician-) initiated, and risk management (apart from routine screening) was considered outside the primary care domain. Clinicians suggested that routine assessment and management of breast cancer risk might be achieved if it were widely endorsed as within the remit of primary care and supported by an online risk-assessment and decision aid tool that was integrated into primary care software. This study identified several key issues that would need to be addressed to facilitate the transition to routine assessment and management of breast cancer risk in primary care, based largely on the model used for cardiovascular disease.

Violence risk assessment in psychiatric patients in China: a systematic review

Objectives: The aim of this study was to undertake a systematic review on violence risk assessment instruments used for psychiatric patients in China.

Methods: A systematic search was conducted from 1980 until 2014 to identify studies that used psychometric tools or structured instruments to assess aggression and violence risk. Information from primary studies was extracted, including demographic characteristics of the samples used, study design characteristics, and reliability and validity estimates.

Results: A total of 30 primary studies were identified that investigated aggression or violence; 6 reported on tools assessing aggression while an additional 24 studies reported on structured instruments designed to predict violence. Although measures of reliability were typically good, estimates of predictive validity were mostly in the range of poor to moderate, with only 1 study finding good validity. These estimates were typically lower than that found in previous work for Western samples.

Conclusion: There is currently little evidence to support the use of current violence risk assessment instruments in psychiatric patients in China. Developing more accurate and scalable approaches are research priorities.

Improving risk assessment in schizophrenia: epidemiological investigation of criminal history factors

Background : Violence risk assessment in schizophrenia relies heavily on criminal history factors.

Aims : To investigate which criminal history factors are most strongly associated with violent crime in schizophrenia.

Method : A total of 13 806 individuals (8891 men and 4915 women) with two or more hospital admissions for schizophrenia were followed up for violent convictions. Multivariate hazard ratios for 15 criminal history factors included in different risk assessment tools were calculated. The incremental predictive validity of these factors was estimated using tests of discrimination, calibration and reclassification.

Results : Over a mean follow-up of 12.0 years, 17.3% of men (n = 1535) and 5.7% of women (n = 281) were convicted of a violent offence. Criminal history factors most strongly associated with subsequent violence for both men and women were a previous conviction for a violent offence; for assault, illegal threats and/or intimidation; and imprisonment. However, only a previous conviction for a violent offence was associated with incremental predictive validity in both genders following adjustment for young age and comorbid substance use disorder.

Conclusions : Clinical and actuarial approaches to assess violence risk can be improved if included risk factors are tested using multiple measures of performance.

How parents manage the risk of child sexual abuse: a grounded theory

The aim of this study is to understand how parents manage the risk of child sexual abuse, including prevention as well as early intervention and detection strategies. Using a social constructivist theoretical foundation and grounded theory methods, qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted with Australian parents between 2006 and 2008. Based on the data, a balance theory was developed, which explains how parents attempt to balance the type of information given to children in order to protect their children from sexual abuse without scaring them as well as how parents manage sexual boundary crossing incidents experienced by their children in the context of complex social relationships. Implications for prevention programs as well as reporting of child sexual abuse are discussed.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian metaregression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

iPrevent®: a tailored, web-based, decision support tool for breast cancer risk assessment and management

We aimed to develop a user-centered, web-based, decision support tool for breast cancer risk assessment and personalized risk management. Using a novel model choice algorithm, iPrevent(®) selects one of two validated breast cancer risk estimation models (IBIS or BOADICEA), based on risk factor data entered by the user. Resulting risk estimates are presented in simple language and graphic formats for easy comprehension. iPrevent(®) then presents risk-adapted, evidence-based, guideline-endorsed management options. Development was an iterative process with regular feedback from multidisciplinary experts and consumers. To verify iPrevent(®), risk factor data for 127 cases derived from the Australian Breast Cancer Family Study were entered into iPrevent(®), IBIS (v7.02), and BOADICEA (v3.0). Consistency of the model chosen by iPrevent(®) (i.e., IBIS or BOADICEA) with the programmed iPrevent(®) model choice algorithm was assessed. Estimated breast cancer risks from iPrevent(®) were compared with those attained directly from the chosen risk assessment model (IBIS or BOADICEA). Risk management interventions displayed by iPrevent(®) were assessed for appropriateness. Risk estimation model choice was 100 % consistent with the programmed iPrevent(®) logic. Discrepant 10-year and residual lifetime risk estimates of >1 % were found for 1 and 4 cases, respectively, none was clinically significant (maximal variation 1.4 %). Risk management interventions suggested by iPrevent(®) were 100 % appropriate. iPrevent(®) successfully integrates the IBIS and BOADICEA risk assessment models into a decision support tool that provides evidence-based, risk-adapted risk management advice. This may help to facilitate precision breast cancer prevention discussions between women and their healthcare providers.

Combining clinical judgement and formalised risk assessment techniques in anaesthesiology : lessons from bushfire emergency management

The underlying thinking in bushfire management has much to offer anaesthetists. Although it is imperative to develop improved methods of predicting the risk of perioperative patient morbidity and mortality, we must avoid them being used in a way that can undermine both individual clinical judgment on a case-by-case basis and the effectivenessof the methods themselves. This requires all concerned to be aware of the reliability and validity of the algorithms used to provide such predictions as well as the quality of the data upon which they are based. Like fire behaviour analysts, anaesthetists should still be free to trust their knowledge, expertise and experience. When experienced fire fighters sense a conflict between what the evidence on the ground is telling them and what a predictive fire map is saying, they use their understanding of limitations of the fire analysts’ predictions to inform their own professional judgment.

Asset identification in information security risk assessment: A business practice approach

Organizations apply information security risk assessment (ISRA) methodologies to systematically and comprehensively identify information assets and related security risks. We review the ISRA literature and identify three key deficiencies in current methodologies that stem from their traditional accountancy-based perspective and a limited view of organizational "assets". In response, we propose a novel rich description method (RDM) that adopts a less formal and more holistic view of information and knowledge assets that exist in modern work environments. We report on an in-depth case study to explore the potential for improved asset identification enabled by the RDM compared to traditional ISRAs. The comparison shows how the RDM addresses the three key deficiencies of current ISRAs by providing: 1) a finer level of granularity for identifying assets, 2) a broader coverage of assets that reflects the informal aspects of business practices, and 3) the identification of critical knowledge assets.

Risk of sexual recidivism as a function of age and actuarial risk

The study of risk for sexual recidivism has undergone substantial development in recent years. The foundation for advances in this area has been the use of actuarial measures to identify subgroups of offenders with different observed rates of sexual re-offending over time. An unresolved issue within this research area has been the moderating function of age in the assessment of risk. The current study examined sexual re-offending as a function of age and actuarial risk in a large sample of sexual offenders released from prison between 1990 and 2004. There was an overall decrease in the rate of sexual re-offending over the age of 50. However, a small group of offenders from the higher actuarial risk categories of the older age groups continued to re-offend at higher rates than their lower-risk peers.

Sexual and violent recidivism by offender type and actuarial risk : reoffending rates for rapists, child molesters and mixed-victim offenders

The current study examines sexual and violent reoffence rates for a sample of 2474 sexual offenders over an average of 15 years following release from prison. Reoffence rates are reported as a function of the offenders' victim type and level of risk as assessed by the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale, a computer scored measure of relevant historical risk factors. Observed sexual recidivism rates for offenders with child victims, adult victims, and mixed victims were quite similar. Results indicate that offenders with exclusively female child victims not only showed a lower rate of sexual reoffending, but that the reoffence rates were relatively low across all levels of actuarial risk. In contrast, those with male child victims and adult victims showed a pronounced escalation of reoffence rates as actuarial risk increased. Results also indicated that adult victim offenders are less consistent in the victim type of their reoffences, with 37% sexually reoffending against child victims. Finally, combined rates of sexual and violent reoffending were particularly high for those with adult victim sexual offence histories. Risk assessment and public policy implications are discussed.

Dynamic risk and sexual offending: the conundrum of assessment

The potential to reduce sexual victimisation, promote community safety, and decrease incarceration costs has resulted in considerable progress in terms of how we understand and predict sexual recidivism. And yet, the past decade has seen a degree of fragmentation emerge as research attention has shifted away from relative risk prediction (with its focus on static risk factors) to the identification of factors capable of reducing risk through intervention (i.e. dynamic risk). Although static and dynamic risk are often treated as orthogonal constructs [Beech, A. R., & Craig, L. A. (2012). The current status of static and dynamic factors in sexual offender risk assessment. Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research, 4(4), 169–185. doi:10.1108/17596591211270671], there are arguments to support a claim that the two are in fact functionally related [see Ward, T. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime & Law (in this issue); Ward, T., & Beech, A. R. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: A theoretical dead-end? Psychology, Crime & Law, 21(2), 100–113. doi:10.1080/1068316X.2014.917854]. This discussion clearly affects how we assess dynamic risk. This review considered several commonly used methods of assessment and the evidence offered for their predictive accuracy. Of note were differences in the predictive accuracy of single psychometric measures versus composite scores of dynamic risk domains and the conventions used for establishing effect sizes for risk assessment tools.

Contextualizing risk in the assessment of intellectually disabled individuals

In this article we examine the idea of expanding structured clinical judgement from primarily offender variables to a broader framework in which environmental (including staff) variables are given equal consideration in a comprehensive risk appraisal conducted for risk management purposes of intellectually disabled individuals. It is posited that only by contextualizing the individual's risk within environmental variables can an accurate portrayal of current dynamic risk (and hence the management of that risk) be construed.

Assessment of community reintegration planning for sex offenders

Poor planning for reintegrating child molesters from prison to the community is a likely risk factor for sexual recidivism. The quality of reintegration planning was retrospectively measured for groups of recidivist (n = 30) and nonrecidivist (n = 30) child molesters who were individually matched on static risk level and time since release. Recidivists had significantly poorer reintegration planning scores than nonrecidivists, consistent with a previous study by the authors. Data from both studies were combined (total N = 141), and survival analyses showed that poor reintegration planning predicted an increased rate of recidivism. Accommodation, employment, and social support planning combined to predict recidivism, with predictive validity comparable to static risk models (area under the curve = .71). Summing these items yielded a scale of reintegration planning quality that differentiated well between recidivists and nonrecidivists and may have practical utility for risk assessment as an adjunct to static models.