Traffic fatalities and public sector corruption

Traffic accidents result in 1 million deaths annually worldwide, though the burden is disproportionately felt in poorer countries. Typically, fatality rates from disease and accidents fall as countries develop. Traffic deaths, however, regularly increase with income, at least up to a threshold level, before declining. While we confirm this by analyzing 1,356 country-year observations between 1982 and 2000, our purpose is to consider the role played by public sector corruption in determining traffic fatalities. We find that such corruption, independent of income, plays a significant role in the epidemics of traffic fatalities that are common in relatively poor countries.

Well-being achievement in Pacific Asia

The world has undergone rapid and tremendous change in recent decades. While many nations have achieved ever-higher per capita incomes, and higher well-being according to traditional measures, they have also experienced profound internal change. This change has lead to widespread concerns regarding social exclusion, human security, levels of personal satisfaction and happiness. Other countries have faired much less well, as according to many well-being measures they are worse off than they were 10 or 20 years ago. Life expectancies, for example, have fallen dramatically in many countries and are likely to fall substantially in others. The incidence of income poverty is higher today in many countries than it was ten years ago. Worldwide, more than a billion people currently live on less than one dollar per day. Social science research on living standards, human well-being and quality of life has come a long way over recent years, altering in response to changing global conditions, new research priorities, new conceptualisations and improved data resources. Twenty five years ago, national well-being achievement comparisons relied very heavily, and in some circles exclusively, on measures of income per capita. The same exercise would today be based a range of indicators, including summary measures of human well-being such as the well-known Human Development Index (UNDP, 2005). This is consistent with the commonly accepted view that human well-being is best treated as a multidimensional concept along the lines advocated by Sen (1985, 1993), Stewart (1985), Doyal & Gough (1991), Ramsay (1992), Cummins (1996), Narayan et al. (2000) or Nussbaum (2000) and others, as summarised in Alkire (2002). This view tends not to reject the relevance of income based or economic measures per se, simply positing that there is more to well-being achievement than simply increasing incomes. The widespread acceptance that well-being is multidimensional has more recently been accompanied by another important recognition. This relates not so much to current levels of well-being, but to the likelihood of declines in future levels. This recognition has spawned a rapidly growing literature on what is now termed as ‘vulnerability’. The vulnerability literature has primarily been concerned with the likelihood of individuals falling below the poverty line, be it defined in terms of income, consumption or health. Among the influential early vulnerability studies are Ravallion (1998), Jalan & Ravallion (1998) and Dercon & Krishnan (1999), each of which distinguished between transient and chronic poverty.

Vulnerability, trade, financial flows and state failure in small island developing states

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are very different to other developing countries. Relative to GDP they have the highest levels of foreign trade and aid receipts of all developing countries. Remittances from abroad are a far more important source of income for SIDS, and some depend very heavily on export revenues. The quality of governance varies tremendously among SIDS, they are over-represented among countries classified as fragile states and many are prone to state failure. These and other factors combine to make SIDS highly vulnerable to external economic shocks. Achieving development in SIDS is as a consequence an especially complex task that requires an understanding of the roles played by aid, trade, remittances and governance in these countries. This paper looks at these issues, along with providing various stylised facts about SIDS. In so doing it serves as a background and broad contextual setting for the papers that follow in this Special Issue on 'Fragility and Development in Small Island Developing States'.

Foreign aid, wage inequality and welfare for a small open economy with tourism

While the welfare effect of foreign aid has been extensively analyzed, the impact on the distribution of income has received less attention. At the same time, there has been recent work on tourism where it is complementary to aid in improving welfare.By combining these two strands, this paper concentrates on wage inequality in developing countries.We find that an increase in aid in the form of tied aid can lower the relative price of nontraded goods. The rent extracted from tourists declines, reducing welfare of domestic residents. In addition, the fall in the nontradable price can widen the wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers.Thus, increased foreign aid may have detrimental effects on national welfare and the distribution of income. Rising wage inequality is confirmed by numerical simulations.

The ALP after 2004

In 2004, for the first time in the two decades for which Australian Election Study (AES) data has become available, more blue-collar workers cast their primary vote for the Coalition parties than for Labor. Blue-collar support for Labor had partially recovered under Beazley in 1998 and 2001 following its dramatic drop under Keating in 1996 but it dropped to even lower levels under Latham in 2004. This paper analyses AES survey data, the actual voting results in each federal electorate and the demographic characteristics of those electorates to discuss the nature of Labor’s latest national election defeat and the reasons for it. There is considerable disagreement among commentators as to whether Labor has lost the last four national elections because it has failed to reconnect with its traditional voter base; or because it has failed to go beyond that base. Much of the disagreement centres on how blue-collar workers are to be understood. Are they ‘battlers’ and victims of ‘globalisation’ or have they become prosperous, upwardly-mobile and ‘aspirational’? Related questions include whether the most salient issues for blue-collar voters are economic, or cultural; and whether the most important inequalities in Australian society should be measured in terms of income; or occupation; or geographic location (including degree of distance from the inner-city). This paper analyses the policies presented in the 2004 election and engages with informed journalistic analyses, and contributions from past and present politicians, in addition to the work of political scientists, to help make sense of precisely where and why Labor lost support in 2004 and the implications this has for future ALP policy and strategy. The paper also contributes to the longer-term debates about the reasons for Howard’s electoral ascendancy since 1996; and the role and constituency of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party.

An agent-based approach to value theory and wealth distribution in economics

Any attempt to model an economy requires foundational assumptions about the relations between prices, values and the distribution of wealth. These assumptions exert a profound influence over the results of any model. Unfortunately, there are few areas in economics as vexed as the theory of value. I argue in this paper that the fundamental problem with past theories of value is that it is simply not possible to model the determination of value, the formation of prices and the distribution of income in a real economy with analytic mathematical models. All such attempts leave out crucial processes or make unrealistic assumptions which significantly affect the results. There have been two primary approaches to the theory of value. The first, associated with classical economists such as Ricardo and Marx were substance theories of value, which view value as a substance inherent in an object and which is conserved in exchange. For Marxists, the value of a commodity derives solely from the value of the labour power used to produce it - and therefore any profit is due to the exploitation of the workers. The labour theory of value has been discredited because of its assumption that labour was the only ‘factor’ that contributed to the creation of value, and because of its fundamentally circular argument. Neoclassical theorists argued that price was identical with value and was determined purely by the interaction of supply and demand. Value then, was completely subjective. Returns to labour (wages) and capital (profits) were determined solely by their marginal contribution to production, so that each factor received its just reward by definition. Problems with the neoclassical approach include assumptions concerning representative agents, perfect competition, perfect and costless information and contract enforcement, complete markets for credit and risk, aggregate production functions and infinite, smooth substitution between factors, distribution according to marginal products, firms always on the production possibility frontier and firms’ pricing decisions, ignoring money and credit, and perfectly rational agents with infinite computational capacity. Two critical areas include firstly, the underappreciated Sonnenschein-Mantel- Debreu results which showed that the foundational assumptions of the Walrasian general-equilibrium model imply arbitrary excess demand functions and therefore arbitrary equilibrium price sets. Secondly, in real economies, there is no equilibrium, only continuous change. Equilibrium is never reached because of constant changes in preferences and tastes; technological and organisational innovations; discoveries of new resources and new markets; inaccurate and evolving expectations of businesses, consumers, governments and speculators; changing demand for credit; the entry and exit of firms; the birth, learning, and death of citizens; changes in laws and government policies; imperfect information; generalized increasing returns to scale; random acts of impulse; weather and climate events; changes in disease patterns, and so on. The problem is not the use of mathematical modelling, but the kind of mathematical modelling used. Agent-based models (ABMs), objectoriented programming and greatly increased computer power however, are opening up a new frontier. Here a dynamic bargaining ABM is outlined as a basis for an alternative theory of value. A large but finite number of heterogeneous commodities and agents with differing degrees of market power are set in a spatial network. Returns to buyers and sellers are decided at each step in the value chain, and in each factor market, through the process of bargaining. Market power and its potential abuse against the poor and vulnerable are fundamental to how the bargaining dynamics play out. Ethics therefore lie at the very heart of economic analysis, the determination of prices and the distribution of wealth. The neoclassicals are right then that price is the enumeration of value at a particular time and place, but wrong to downplay the critical roles of bargaining, power and ethics in determining those same prices.

I have to want to do it : gaining 'voluntary' compliance with fear, guilt, and shame appeals in social marketing campaigns

This paper presents results from a qualitative study of income support recipients with regard to how they feel about advertising which overtly appeals to their sense of fear, guilt and shame. The motivation of the study was to provide formative research for a social marketing campaign designed to increase compliance with income reporting requirements. This study shows that negative appeals with this group of people are more likely to invoke self-protection and inaction rather than an active response such as volunteering to comply. Social marketers need to consider the use fear, guilt and shame to gain voluntary compliance as the study suggests that there has been an overuse of these negative appeals. While more formative research is required, the future research direction aim would be to develop an instrument to measure the impact of shame on prosocial decision-making; particularly in the context of social networks rather than the wider society.

The association between socioeconomic status and osteoporotic fracture in population-based adults : a systematic review

Summary : Although socioeconomic status (SES) is inversely related to most diseases, this systematic review showed a paucity of good quality data examining influences of SES on osteoporotic fracture to confirm this relationship. Further research is required to elucidate the issue and any underlying mechanisms as a necessary precursor to considering intervention implications.

Introduction : The association between socioeconomic status (SES) and musculoskeletal disease is little understood, despite there being an inverse relationship between SES and most causes of morbidity. We evaluated evidence of SES as a risk factor for osteoporotic fracture in population-based adults.

Methods : Computer-aided search of Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, and PsychINFO from January 1966 until November 2007 was conducted. Identified studies investigated the relationship between SES parameters of income, education, occupation, type of residence and marital status, and occurrence of osteoporotic fracture. A best-evidence synthesis was used to summarize the results.

Results : Eleven studies were identified for inclusion, which suggested a lack of literature in the field. Best evidence analysis identified strong evidence for an association between being married/living with someone and reduced risk of osteoporotic fracture. Limited evidence exists of the relationship between occupation type or employment status and fracture, or for type of residence and fracture. Conflicting evidence exists for the relationship between osteoporotic fracture and level of income and education.

Conclusion : Limited good quality evidence exists of the role SES might play in osteoporotic fracture. Further research is required to identify whether a relationship exists, and to elucidate underlying mechanisms, as a necessary precursor to considering intervention implications.

Probabilistic models over ordered partitions with applications in document ranking and collaborative filtering

Ranking is an important task for handling a large amount of content. Ideally, training data for supervised ranking would include a complete rank of documents (or other objects such as images or videos) for a particular query. However, this is only possible for small sets of documents. In practice, one often resorts to document rating, in that a subset of documents is assigned with a small number indicating the degree of relevance. This poses a general problem of modelling and learning rank data with ties. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic generative model, that models the process as permutations over partitions. This results in super-exponential combinatorial state space with unknown numbers of partitions and unknown ordering among them. We approach the problem from the discrete choice theory, where subsets are chosen in a stagewise manner, reducing the state space per each stage significantly. Further, we show that with suitable parameterisation, we can still learn the models in linear time. We evaluate the proposed models on two application areas: (i) document ranking with the data from the recently held Yahoo! challenge, and (ii) collaborative filtering with movie data. The results demonstrate that the models are competitive against well-known rivals.

Associations between adverse social position and bone mineral density in women aged 50 years or older: data from the Manitoba bone density program

The authors examined the independent contribution of income to low bone mineral density in women aged 50 years and older. A significant dose–response association was observed between low income and low (bone mineral density) BMD, which was not explained by clinical risk factors or osteoporotic treatment in the year prior.

The association between social disadvantage and osteoporosis is attracting increased attention; however, little is known of the role played by income. We examined associations between income and bone mineral density (BMD) in 51,327 women aged ≥50 years from Manitoba, Canada.

The association between socio-economic position and diet quality in Australian adults

Objective: We aimed to investigate the association between multiple measures of socio-economic position (SEP) and diet quality, using a diet quality index representing current national dietary guidelines, in the Australian adult population. Design: Cross-sectional study. Linear regression analyses were used to estimate the association between indicators of SEP (educational attainment, level of income and area-level disadvantage) and diet quality (measured using the Dietary Guideline Index (DGI)) in the total sample and stratified by sex and age (≤55 years and >55 years). Setting: A large randomly selected sample of the Australian adult population. Subjects: Australian adults (n 9296; aged ≥25 years) from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study. Results: A higher level of educational attainment and income and a lower level of area-level disadvantage were significantly associated with a higher DGI score, across the gradient of SEP. The association between indicators of SEP and DGI score was consistently stronger among those aged ≤55 years compared with their older counterparts. The most disadvantaged group had a DGI score between 2 and 5 units lower (depending on the marker of SEP) compared with the group with the least disadvantage. Conclusions: A higher level of SEP was consistently associated with a higher level of diet quality for all indicators of SEP examined. In order to reduce socio-economic inequalities in diet quality, healthy eating initiatives need to act across the gradient of socio-economic disadvantage with a proportionate focus on those with greater socio-economic disadvantage.

Successful Australian general practitioner doctoral candidates 2005-14

Aims/objectives:Appointment to higher academic positions and success in high prestige research grantsIn Australia requires the possession of a research based doctorate. With the expandingNeeds of general practice can we meet the need for suitably qualified applicants?Using a variety of public domain databases Australian GPs who lodged a doctoral thesis in a University library from 1 Jan 2005 to 31 Dec 2014 were identified.Content:In this time 73 of the current 32,000 registered general practitioners had doctoral thesis accepted; 48 of these were in the first five years.Median time for thesis submission is around 25 years after the primary medical qualification.Relevance/impact:The capability to expand GP academic departments and research output in Australia is hampered by low GP doctoral completion rates. Doctorates are achieved in a late stage of a professional career limiting the research career lifespan. More research opportunities have been identified as attracting younger graduates to general practice.Discussion:There is an urgent need to provide more practical and financial support to younger GPs to enable them to undertake academic career development. A clear career pathway with some stability of income is also needed.

Economic growth and carbon emissions

In this paper, we investigate the dynamic relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for 181 countries. We propose a new approach based on the cross-correlation estimates to understand how economic growth and CO2 emissions are related. Our proposal is that if there is a positive cross-correlation between the current level of income and the past level of CO2 emissions and a negative cross-correlation between the current level of income and the future CO2 emissions, then CO2 emissions will decline with an increase in income over time, consistent with the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. Our main findings can be summarized as follows. First, for 21 out of 181 countries (12%), there is clear evidence supporting the EKC hypothesis. Second, we ask whether a rise in income reduces emissions in the future. We find that for 49 countries (27%), income growth will reduce emissions in the future.

Shopping for schools or shopping for peers : public schools and catchment area segregation

Market theory positions the consumer as a rational choice actor, making informed schooling choices on the basis of ‘hard’ evidence of relative school effectiveness. Yet there are concerns that parents simply choose schools based on socio-demographic characteristics, thus leading to greater social segregation and undercutting the potential of choice to drive quality improvements. In this paper we explore segregation by examining catchment areas for a range of public high schools in a specific middle-class urban area. We focus on socio-demographic characteristics, including levels of income, country of birth and religion affiliation, in order to explore residential segregation according to public high school catchment areas. Our data suggests distinct residential segregation between catchment areas for each public school within our dataset, particularly for the schools deemed to be popular and rejected, that may pose risks for broader equity concerns. We argue that, in contrast to market theory, even more affluent and active choosers are not equipped with information on the programmatic quality of their different school options, but instead may be relying on socio-demographic characteristics of schools—through surrogate information about the urban spaces that the schools occupy—in order to choose peer groups, if not programs, for their children.