Construction of optimal prediction intervals for load forecasting problems

Short-term load forecasting is fundamental for the reliable and efficient operation of power systems. Despite its importance, accurate prediction of loads is problematic and far remote. Often uncertainties significantly degrade performance of load forecasting models. Besides, there is no index available indicating reliability of predicted values. The objective of this study is to construct prediction intervals for future loads instead of forecasting their exact values. The delta technique is applied for constructing prediction intervals for outcomes of neural network models. Some statistical measures are developed for quantitative and comprehensive evaluation of prediction intervals. According to these measures, a new cost function is designed for shortening length of prediction intervals without compromising their coverage probability. Simulated annealing is used for minimization of this cost function and adjustment of neural network parameters. Demonstrated results clearly show that the proposed methods for constructing prediction interval outperforms the traditional delta technique. Besides, it yields prediction intervals that are practically more reliable and useful than exact point predictions.

Short term load forecasting using a hybrid neural network

Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is very important from the power systems grid operation point of view. STLF involves forecasting load demand in a short term time frame. The short term time frame may consist of half hourly prediction up to weekly prediction. Accurate forecasting would benefit the utility in terms of reliability and stability of the grid ensuring adequate supply is present to meet with the load demand. Apart from that it would also affect the financial performance of the utility company. An accurate forecast would result in better savings while maintaining the security of the grid. This paper outlines the STLF using a novel hybrid online learning neural network, known as the Gaussian Regression (GR). This new hybrid neural network is a combination of two existing online learning neural networks which are the Gaussian Adaptive Resonance Theory (GA) and the Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN). Both GA and GRNN implemented online learning, but each of them suffers from limitation. Originally GA is used for unsupervised clustering by compressing the training samples into several categories. A supervised version of GA is available, namely Gaussian ARTMAP (GAM). However, the GAM is still not capable on solving regression problem. On the other hand, GRNN is designed for solving real value estimation (regression) problem, but the learning process would involve of memorizing all training samples, hence high computational cost. The hybrid GR is considered an enhanced version of GRNN with compression ability while still maintains online learning properties. Simulation results show that GR has comparable prediction accuracy and has less prototype as compared to the original GRNN as well as the Support Vector Regression.

Smart grid

All over the world, electrical power systems are encountering radical change stimulated by the urgent need to decarbonize electricity supply, to swap aging resources and to make effective application of swiftly evolving information and communication technologies (ICTs). All of these goals converge toward one direction; ‘Smart Grid.’ The Smart Grid can be described as the transparent, seamless, and instantaneous two-way delivery of energy information, enabling the electricity industry to better manage energy delivery and transmission and empowering consumers to have more control over energy decisions. Basically, the vision of Smart Grid is to provide much better visibility to lower-voltage networks as well as to permit the involvement of consumers in the function of the power system, mostly through smart meters and Smart Homes. A Smart Grid incorporates the features of advanced ICTs to convey real-time information and facilitate the almost instantaneous stability of supply and demand on the electrical grid. The operational data collected by Smart Grid and its sub-systems will allow system operators to quickly recognize the best line of attack to protect against attacks, susceptibility, and so on, sourced by a variety of incidents. However, Smart Grid initially depends upon knowing and researching key performance components and developing the proper education program to equip current and future workforce with the knowledge and skills for exploitation of this greatly advanced system. The aim of this chapter is to provide a basic discussion of the Smart Grid concept, evolution and components of Smart Grid, environmental impacts of Smart Grid and then in some detail, to describe the technologies that are required for its realization. Even though the Smart Grid concept is not yet fully defined, the chapter will be helpful in describing the key enabling technologies and thus allowing the reader to play a part in the debate over the future of the Smart Grid. The chapter concludes with the experimental description and results of developing a hybrid prediction method for solar power which is applicable to successfully implement the ‘Smart Grid.’

Impacts of DG penetration in the Bamaga and Gununa isolated distribution networks

Isolated distribution systems are dispersed throughout regional Queensland to supply small isolated communities that are distant from the main supply grid. The costs of maintaining the electricity supply to these areas is costly; mainly due to the cost of diesel fuel. Furthermore, there is a community focus on climate change, and Ergon Energy aims to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels whilst optimising cost efficiencies and greenhouse gas emissions. The objective of this study is to examine the impacts of renewable energy sources in isolated power systems. For the locations studied, viable renewable energy sources have been integrated into these networks. Anticipated challenges and issues with the integration of the intermittent renewable energy sources were addressed, using mitigation techniques, including energy storage solutions. The investigation and findings demonstrated that network improvements can be achieved by an ideal level of renewable penetration, which has been the main focus of the project. The project involved the development and simulation of MATLAB Simulink and SINCAL models of the two isolated networks at Gununa and Bamaga. The subsequent analysis of these systems has shown a modest penetration level of renewables can be combined with energy storage solutions, which reduces fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions at these locations.

Construction of neural network-based prediction intervals for short-term electrical load forecasting

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is of great importance for control and scheduling of electrical power systems. The uncertainty of power systems increases due to the random nature of climate and the penetration of the renewable energies such as wind and solar power. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in datasets. To quantify these potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly proposed method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied to develop PIs using NN models. The primary multi-objective problem is firstly transformed into a constrained single-objective problem. This new problem formulation is closer to the original problem and has fewer parameters than the cost function. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Two case studies from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia) historical load datasets are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Demonstrated results show that the proposed method can construct high quality PIs for load forecasting applications.

Small-signal stability assessment of active distribution networks with dynamic loads

This paper investigates small-signal stability of a distribution system with distributed generator and induction motor load, as a dynamic element. The analysis is carried out over a distribution test system with different types of induction motor loads. The system is linearised by the perturbation method. Eigenvalues and participation factors are calculated to see the modal interaction of the system. The study indicates that load voltage dynamics significantly influence the damping of a newly identified voltage mode. This mode has frequency of oscillation between the electromechanical and subsynchronous oscillation of power systems. To justify the validity of the modal analysis time domain simulation is also carried out. Finally, significant parameters of the system that affect the damping and frequency of the oscillation are identified.

Enhancement of transient stability limit and voltage regulation with dynamic loads using robust excitation control

In stressed power systems with large induction machine component, there exist undamped electromechanical modes and unstable montonic voltage modes. This article proposes a sequential design of an excitation controller and a power system stabiliser (PSS) to stabilise the system. The operating region, with induction machines in stressed power systems, is often not captured using a linearisation around an operating point, and to alleviate this situation a robust controller is designed which guaruntees stable operation in a large region of operation. A minimax linear quadratic Gaussian design is used for the design of the supplementary control to automatic voltage regulators, and a classical PSS structure is used to damp electromechanical oscillations. The novelty of this work is in proposing a method to capture the unmodelled nonlinear dynamics as uncertainty in the design of the robust controller. Tight bounds on the uncertainty are obtained using this method which enables high-performance controllers. An IEEE benchmark test system has been used to demonstrate the performance of the designed controller

Prospects of renewable energy in semi-arid region

Continuous usage of fossil fuels and other conventional resources to meet the growing demand has resulted in in-creased energy crisis and greenhouse gas emissions. Hence, it is essential to use renewable energy sources for more reliable, effective, sustainable and pollution free transmission and distribution networks. Therefore, to facilitate large-scale integration of renewable energy in particular wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) energy, this paper presents the feasibility analysis for semi-arid climate and finds the most suitable places in North East region of Victoria for re-newable energy generation. For economic and environmental analysis, Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Re-newables (HOMER) has used to investigate the prospects of wind and solar energy considering the Net Present Cost (NPC), Cost of Energy (COE) and Renewable fraction (RF). Six locations are selected from North East region of Victo-ria and simulations are performed. From the feasibility analysis, it can be concluded that Mount Hotham is one of the most suitable locations for wind energy generation while Wangaratta is the most suitable location for solar energy generation. Mount Hotham is also the best suitable locations in North East region for hybrid power systems i.e., com-bination of both wind and solar energy generation.

Uncertainty handling using neural network-based prediction intervals for electrical load forecasting

The complexity and level of uncertainty present in operation of power systems have significantly grown due to penetration of renewable resources. These complexities warrant the need for advanced methods for load forecasting and quantifying uncertainties associated with forecasts. The objective of this study is to develop a framework for probabilistic forecasting of electricity load demands. The proposed probabilistic framework allows the analyst to construct PIs (prediction intervals) for uncertainty quantification. A newly introduced method, called LUBE (lower upper bound estimation), is applied and extended to develop PIs using NN (neural network) models. The primary problem for construction of intervals is firstly formulated as a constrained single-objective problem. The sharpness of PIs is treated as the key objective and their calibration is considered as the constraint. PSO (particle swarm optimization) enhanced by the mutation operator is then used to optimally tune NN parameters subject to constraints set on the quality of PIs. Historical load datasets from Singapore, Ottawa (Canada) and Texas (USA) are used to examine performance of the proposed PSO-based LUBE method. According to obtained results, the proposed probabilistic forecasting method generates well-calibrated and informative PIs. Furthermore, comparative results demonstrate that the proposed PI construction method greatly outperforms three widely used benchmark methods. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

A computational framework for uncertainty integration in stochastic unit commitment with intermittent renewable energy sources

The penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources (IRESs) into power grids has increased in the last decade. Integration of wind farms and solar systems as the major IRESs have significantly boosted the level of uncertainty in operation of power systems. This paper proposes a comprehensive computational framework for quantification and integration of uncertainties in distributed power systems (DPSs) with IRESs. Different sources of uncertainties in DPSs such as electrical load, wind and solar power forecasts and generator outages are covered by the proposed framework. Load forecast uncertainty is assumed to follow a normal distribution. Wind and solar forecast are implemented by a list of prediction intervals (PIs) ranging from 5% to 95%. Their uncertainties are further represented as scenarios using a scenario generation method. Generator outage uncertainty is modeled as discrete scenarios. The integrated uncertainties are further incorporated into a stochastic security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) problem and a heuristic genetic algorithm is utilized to solve this stochastic SCUC problem. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are implemented. Generation costs as well as different reserve strategies are discussed from the perspectives of system economics and reliability. Comparative results indicate that the planned generation costs and reserves are different from the realized ones. The stochastic models show better robustness than deterministic ones. Power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours.

A decentralised multi-agent approach to enhance the stability of smart microgrids with renewable energy

This paper presents the impact of large penetration of wind power on the transient stability through a dynamic evaluation of the critical clearing times (CCTs) by using intelligent agent-based approach. A decentralised multi-agent-based framework is developed, where agents represent a number of physical device models to form a complex infrastructure for computation and communication. They enable the dynamic flow of information and energy for the interaction between the physical processes and their activities. These agents dynamically adapt online measurements and use the CCT information for relay coordination to improve the transient stability of power systems. Simulations are carried out on a smart microgrid system for faults at increasing wind power penetration levels and the improvement in transient stability using the proposed agent-based framework is demonstrated.

A nonlinear adaptive backstepping approach for coordinated excitation and steam-valving control of synchronous generators

Steam-valving and excitation systems play an important role to maintain the transient stability of power systems with synchronous generators when power systems are subjected to large disturbances and sudden load changes. This paper presents a nonlinear adaptive backstepping approach for controlling excitation and steam-valving systems of synchronous generators. In this paper, the proposed excitation and steam-valving controllers are designed in a coordinated manner so that they can work under several and most severe operating conditions. Both excitation and steam-valving controllers are designed by considering some critical parameters as unknown. The effectiveness of the proposed coordinated control scheme is evaluated on a single machine infinite bus system under different operating conditions such as load changes and three-phase short circuit faults at the generator terminal. Finally, performance of the proposed scheme is compared to that of a similar nonlinear adaptive backstepping excitation controller without any coordination and simulation results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed one.

Integration of renewable generation uncertainties into stochastic unit commitment considering reserve and risk: a comparative study

The uncertainties of renewable energy have brought great challenges to power system commitment, dispatches and reserve requirement. This paper presents a comparative study on integration of renewable generation uncertainties into SCUC (stochastic security-constrained unit commitment) considering reserve and risk. Renewable forecast uncertainties are captured by a list of PIs (prediction intervals). A new scenario generation method is proposed to generate scenarios from these PIs. Different system uncertainties are considered as scenarios in the stochastic SCUC problem formulation. Two comparative simulations with single (E1: wind only) and multiple sources of uncertainty (E2: load, wind, solar and generation outages) are investigated. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are performed. Different generation costs, reserve strategies and associated risks are compared under various scenarios. Demonstrated results indicate the overall costs of E2 is lower than E1 due to penetration of solar power and the associated risk in deterministic cases of E2 is higher than E1. It implies the superimposed effect of uncertainties during uncertainty integration. The results also demonstrate that power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours, and that stochastic models are more robust than deterministic ones.

Renewable energy integration : challenges and solutions

This book presents different aspects of renewable energy integration, from the latest developments in renewable energy technologies to the currently growing smart grids. The importance of different renewable energy sources is discussed, in order to identify the advantages and challenges for each technology. The rules of connecting the renewable energy sources have also been covered along with practical examples. Since solar and wind energy are the most popular forms of renewable energy sources, this book provides the challenges of integrating these renewable generators along with some innovative solutions. As the complexity of power system operation has been raised due to the renewable energy integration, this book also includes some analysis to investigate the characteristics of power systems in a smarter way. This book is intended for those working in the area of renewable energy integration in distribution networks.