Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect

Most empirical evidence suggests that the Fisher effect, stating that inflation and nominal interest rates should cointegrate with a unit slope on inflation, does not hold, a finding at odds with many theoretical models. This paper argues that these results can be attributed in part to the low power of univariate tests, and that the use of panel data can generate more powerful tests. For this purpose, we propose two new panel cointegration tests that can be applied under very general conditions, and that are shown by simulation to be more powerful than other existing tests. These tests are applied to a panel of quarterly data covering 20 OECD countries between 1980 and 2004. The evidence suggest that the Fisher effect cannot be rejected once the panel evidence on cointegration has been taken into account. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A panel bootstrap cointegration test

This paper proposes a bootstrap test for the null hypothesis of cointegration in panel data. The test is general enough to allow for dependence both within and between the cross-sectional units, and is shown to work well in small samples. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Panel cointegration tests with deterministic trends and structural breaks

This paper proposes Lagrange multiplier (LM) based tests for the null hypothesis of no cointegration in panel data. The tests are general enough to allow for heteroskedastic and serially correlated errors, individual specific time trends, and a single structural break
in both the intercept and slope of each regression, which may be located different dates for different individuals. The limiting distributions of the test statistics are derived, and are found to be standard normal and free of nuisance parameters under the null. In
particular, the distributions are found to be invariant not only withrespect to trend and structural break, but also with respect to the presence of stochastic regressors. A small Monte Carlo study is also conducted to investigate the small-sample properties of the tests. The results reveal that the tests have small size distortions and good power even in very small samples.

New simple tests for panel cointegration

In this paper, two new simple residual-based panel data tests are proposed for the null of no cointegration. The tests are simple because they do not require any correction for the temporal dependencies of the data. Yet they are able to accommodate individual specific short-run dynamics, individual specific intercept and trend terms, and individual specific slope parameters. The limiting distributions of the tests are derived and are shown to be free of nuisance parameters. The Monte Carlo results in this paper suggest that the asymptotic results are borne out well even in very small samples. Copyright © Taylor & Francis, Inc.

Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher hypothesis

Recent empirical studies suggest that the Fisher hypothesis, stating that inflation and nominal interest rates should cointegrate with a unit parameter on inflation, does not hold, a finding at odds with many theoretical models. This paper argues that these results can be explained in part by the low power inherent in univariate cointegration tests and that the use of panel data should generate more powerful tests. In doing so, we propose two new panel cointegration tests, which are shown by simulation to be more powerful than other existing tests. Applying these tests to a panel of monthly data covering the period 1980:1 to 1999:12 on 14 OECD countries, we find evidence supportive of the Fisher hypothesis.

Mixed signals among tests for panel cointegration

In this paper, we study the effect that different serial correlation adjustment methods can have on panel cointegration testing. As an example, we consider the very popular tests developed by Pedroni [Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 61, 653670., Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econometric Theory 20, 597-625.]. Results based on both simulated and real data suggest that different adjustment methods can lead to significant variations in test outcome, and thus also in the conclusions. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Output and labor productivity in organized manufacturing: a panel cointegration analysis for India

One of the policy puzzles faced in India during the last two and half decades has been the weak association between output and labor markets, particularly in the manufacturing sector. In this research, we investigate the long-run relationship between output, labor productivity and real wages in the case of organized manufacturing. We adjust the measure of labor productivity incorporating bottlenecks, such as lack of infrastructure, access to external finance, and labor regulations, which all may influence labor market outcomes. Using panel data from seventeen manufacturing industries, we establish long-run dynamics for the output-labor productivity-real wages series over a period of nearly three decades. We employ recently developed panel unit root and cointegration tests for cross-sectional dependence to incorporate heterogeneity across industries. Long-run elasticities are generally found to be low for labor productivity compared to real wages due to the changes in manufacturing output. There are variations across industries within the manufacturing sector for the effects of the labor market on manufacturing output. In some industries, lower wages are associated with higher output, and the reason for the positive relationship in other industries could be due to workers' bargaining power.

Panel multi-predictor test procedures with an application to emerging market sovereign risk

As a response to the inefficient practices and possibly misleading inferences resulting from the unit-by-unit application mostly found in the literature, the current paper develops a block bootstrap based panel predictability test procedure that accommodates multiple predictors. As an empirical illustration we consider emerging market sovereign risk where data are usually available across multiple countries, and local and global predictors. The results, which are in agreement with the existing literature on the determinants of sovereign risk, suggest that the global predictors are best and that the predictive ability of the local predictors is limited, at best.

On the estimation and testing of predictive panel regressions

Hjalmarsson (2010) considers an OLS-based estimator of predictive panel regressions that is argued to be mixed normal under very general conditions. In a recent paper, Westerlund et al. (2016) show that while consistent, the estimator is generally not mixed normal, which invalidates standard normal and chi-squared inference. The purpose of the present paper is to study the consequences of this theoretical result in small samples, which is done using both simulated and real data.

Persistent and contemporaneous effects of job stressors on mental health: a study testing multiple analytic approaches across 13 waves of annually collected cohort data

OBJECTIVES: This study investigated the extent that psychosocial job stressors had lasting effects on a scaled measure of mental health. We applied econometric approaches to a longitudinal cohort to: (1) control for unmeasured individual effects; (2) assess the role of prior (lagged) exposures of job stressors on mental health and (3) the persistence of mental health.

METHODS: We used a panel study with 13 annual waves and applied fixed-effects, first-difference and fixed-effects Arellano-Bond models. The Short Form 36 (SF-36) Mental Health Component Summary score was the outcome variable and the key exposures included: job control, job demands, job insecurity and fairness of pay.

RESULTS: Results from the Arellano-Bond models suggest that greater fairness of pay (β-coefficient 0.34, 95% CI 0.23 to 0.45), job control (β-coefficient 0.15, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.20) and job security (β-coefficient 0.37, 95% CI 0.32 to 0.42) were contemporaneously associated with better mental health. Similar results were found for the fixed-effects and first-difference models. The Arellano-Bond model also showed persistent effects of individual mental health, whereby individuals' previous reports of mental health were related to their reporting in subsequent waves. The estimated long-run impact of job demands on mental health increased after accounting for time-related dynamics, while there were more minimal impacts for the other job stressor variables.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that the majority of the effects of psychosocial job stressors on a scaled measure of mental health are contemporaneous except for job demands where accounting for the lagged dynamics was important.

Panel stationary tests against changes in persistence

In this paper we propose new panel tests to detect changes in persistence. The test statistics are used to test the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a change in persistence from I(0) to I(1), from I(1) to I(0), and in an unknown direction. The limiting null distributions of the tests are derived and evaluated in small samples by means of Monte Carlo simulations. An empirical illustration is also provided.

Aid effectiveness on accumulation: a meta study

The AEL (aid effectiveness literature) studies the macroeconomic effects of development aid using cross-country or panel data econometrics. It contains 97 papers of which 43 study whether development aid leads to increasing accumulation. The aggregate results of the 43 studies are that aid increases investment with about 25% of the aid, while most of the remaining 75% of the effect is crowded out by a fall in savings. However, these aggregate results are so variable that it is dubious if accumulation rises.

Economic freedom and economic growth: Does specification make a difference?

In this paper we apply meta-analytic techniques to the literature on the impact of economic freedom on economic growth and find an overall positive direct association between economic freedom and economic growth. A positive indirect effect of economic freedom on economic growth through the stimulation of physical capital is also identified. However, the literature is affected by specification bias with respect to controls for physical capital. The omission of physical capital results in larger estimates of the economic freedom–economic growth association. Further, the use of panel data leads to smaller estimates of the impact of economic freedom on economic growth. The meta-analysis is confirmed by primary cross-sectional and panel data analysis of 82 countries for the period 1970–1999.

Directors' remuneration and performance in Australian banking

This paper explores the relationship between directors' pay and performance within Australian banking, using panel data for the 1992-2005 period. The relationship between CEO pay and performance is investigated also. Several earnings models are estimated, using different dependent variables, alternate measures of performance and different estimation techniques. The results indicate an absence of a contemporaneous relationship between directors' pay and bank performance, and no association with prior year performance. However, there is a more distant pay-performance relationship, with total directors' pay having a robust positive association with earnings per share lagged two years, as well as with ROE lagged two years. The other key determinants of directors' pay in Australian banking are bank specific managerial policies, lags in the administration of pay, bank size, directors' age and directors' stock ownership. In contrast to total directors' pay, the evidence confirms a strong positive and direct association between CEO remuneration and prior year bank performance. The pay-performance association is stronger and more direct for CEO remuneration than it is for total directors' remuneration. The responsiveness of CEO pay with respect to bank performance appears to have increased over time.

Directors' remuneration and performance in the Australian banking sector

This paper explores the links between directors' pay and performance within the Australian banking sector using panel data for the 1993-2004 period. The links between CEOs' pay and performance is investigated also. Several earnings models are estimated and different estimation techniques are used. The results indicate that there is no link between directors' pay and firm performance with a one year lag. However, there is a more distant payperformance link, with directors' pay influenced by shareholders' returns with a three year lag. The other key determinants of directors' pay in the Australian banking sector are bank specific managerial policies, lags in the administration of pay, bank size and board composition. A clear and strong positive and direct association between CEO remuneration and performance is established.