Submission to the New Zealand Parliamentary Inquiry : New Zealand Convention Centre Bill 2013

The Bill outlines the overarching purpose of the NZICC Agreement ‘to provide economic benefits to New Zealanders’. It is really a form of PPP (Public Private Partnership) where the beneficiaries are said to be the Crown and SkyCity but the real payment comes from the losses of the (mainly) community members who will gamble on the expanded facilities outlined in the Agreement. The Howeth International Convention and Exhibition Centre study (2009) established a clear business case for an international convention centre; with an optimistic benefit-cost ratio of 1.433 (which translates into a benefit to the economy of $1.433
for ever $1 spent). Aside from the short-term stimulus to jobs of the construction phase, a convention centre with capacity for 1000 delegates would create about 800 new jobs and attract up to 35 additional conferences of between 150 and 2500 delegates per year (an additional 22,000 additional international visitors and more than 200,000 extra visitor days, worth approximately $85.4 million in tourism-related expenditure per year15. It is therefore questionable as to why this venture needs to be captured by gambling interests, which will also dictate the location. This points to the efficacy of a non-casino provider being able to tender for establishment of an International Convention Centre that could be run profitably without being part of the for-profit model based on expanded gambling machines/revenue.

Least squares learning and the US Treasury bill rate

Understanding how agents formulate their expectations about Fed behavior is important for market participants because they can potentially use this information to make more accurate estimates of stock and bond prices. Although it is commonly assumed that agents learn over time, there is scant empirical evidence in support of this assumption. Thus, in this paper we test if the forecast of the three month T-bill rate in the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is consistent with least squares learning when there are discrete shifts in monetary policy. We first derive the mean, variance and autocovariances of the forecast errors from a recursive least squares learning algorithm when there are breaks in the structure of the model. We then apply the Bai and Perron (1998) test for structural change to a forecasting model for the three month T-bill rate in order to identify changes in monetary policy. Having identified the policy regimes, we then estimate the implied biases in the interest rate forecasts within each regime. We find that when the forecast errors from the SPF are corrected for the biases due to shifts in policy, the forecasts are consistent with least squares learning. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Game of Tropes: the Orientalist tradition in the Works of G.R.R. Martin

George R.R. Martin's A Song of Ice and Fire novels (and their television adaption, Game of Thrones) have become arguably the most well known fantasy epic of the last decade. However, the world of A Song of Ice and Fire conforms to many of the same Orientalist tropes that have dominated Western literature since the popularisation of the 'Arabian fantasy' in the 18th and 19th centuries and its subsequent perpetuation in film and television. Derivative imaginings of the real world Middle East are commonly reflected in non-Earthly fantasy worlds and Martin's work incorporates this standard vision of the Eastern Other. Owing to its popularity, the A Song of Ice and Fire series represents a significant reinforcement of Orientalist stereotypes and proves that fantasy locations have significant power to cement these ideas in the popular imagination. Moreover, the negative portyal of the East in these works supports Said's argument that the Orient is an invention of the West, and that our depiction of the Other is a means of framing our own cultural superiority.

Lynsey Martin: A case study in 1970s Australian experimental animation

Lynsey Martin’s short experimental Animations remain largely unknown internationally. His graphic 16mm films Approximately Water (4 minutes 1972), Whitewash (1973, 4 minutes), Interview (25 minutes 1973) and Leading Ladies (1975 5 minutes) are analysed for their technique and cultural position, artifacts of a productive if marginalized period of artist made films. These graphic films stand as critical works at the heart experimental filmmaking in Australia and speak through their design and production method to current trends in digital media. Martin’s work includes the use of collage and its erasure, the grain of the photographic image and handpainting and drawing imagery directly on the film surface. Martin deals with the graphic and material elements of the filmstrip, the nature of filmic movement and the nature of photography in public space. For martin his films deal with films deal abstraction and illusionism, elements of chance, the deconstruction of film language, the diary film and process as content. These films stand as historic aesthetic traces of an immediate hands-on approach to image making that came into crisis in Australia through the disappearance of technical education in the 1980s when Martin taught graphic design in technical schools.

Corrigendum to “Least squares learning and the US treasury bill rate” [Econ. Syst. 38 (2014) 194–204]

Understanding how agents formulate their expectations about Fed behavior is important for market participants because they can potentially use this information to make more accurate estimates of stock and bond prices. Although it is commonly assumed that agents learn over time, there is scant empirical evidence in support of this assumption. Thus, in this paper we test if the forecast of the three month T-bill rate in the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) is consistent with least squares learning when there are discrete shifts in monetary policy. We first derive the mean, variance and autocovariances of the forecast errors from a recursive least squares learning algorithm when there are breaks in the structure of the model. We then apply the Bai and Perron (1998) test for structural change to a forecasting model for the three month T-bill rate in order to identify changes in monetary policy. Having identified the policy regimes, we then estimate the implied biases in the interest rate forecasts within each regime. We find that when the forecast errors from the SPF are corrected for the biases due to shifts in policy, the forecasts are consistent with least squares learning.

Climate-related spatial and temporal variation in bill morphology over the past century in Australian parrots

Aim: Allen's rule posits that the appendages of endothermic organisms will be larger in warmer climates to allow for dumping of heat loads. Given a link between appendage size and climate, we tested the prediction that climate change has driven the evolution of larger bills in birds, resulting in measurable changes over the recent past. Location: Australia. Methods: We explored geographical and temporal variation in bill surface area of five Australian parrot species to determine whether individuals from warmer climates have larger bills, and whether there have been increases in bill surface area over time, consistent with climatic warming. Measurements were obtained from museum specimens dating from 1871 to 2008. These data were then related to geographical location, collection date and locality-specific climate data, in order to construct and compare models of spatio-temporal and climate-related variation in bill morphology. Results: There have been increases in bill surface area in mulga parrots (Psephotus varius), gang-gang cockatoos (Callocephalon fimbriatum), red-rumped parrots (Psephotus haematonotus) and male crimson rosellas (Platycercus elegans), equating to a c. 4-10% increase in bill surface area since 1871. Average maximum summer temperature in the 5 years prior to specimen collection also positively predicted bill surface area in mulga parrots, red-rumped parrots and crimson rosellas, consistent with Allen's rule. With the exception of red-rumped parrots, however, models with geographical location and year of collection were still better predictors of bill surface area than local climate at the date of collection. Main conclusions: Our analysis provides evidence that four species of parrot have exhibited adaptive change in bills over the past century potentially mitigating the thermal stress caused by climatic warming. Although consistent with the predicted effects of climate change, the temporal patterns we observe may have additional causes, however, such as changes in primary productivity, habitat or food availability.