Forecasting construction demand : a vector error correction model with dummy variables

Modelling the level of demand for construction is vital in policy formulation and implementation as the construction industry plays an important role in a country’s economic development process. In construction economics, research efforts on construction demand modelling and forecasting are various, but few researchers have considered the impact of global economy events in construction demand modelling. An advanced multivariate modelling technique, namely the vector error correction (VEC) model with dummy variables, was adopted to predict demand in the Australian construction market. The results of prediction accuracy tests suggest that the general VEC model and the VEC model with dummy variables are both acceptable for forecasting construction economic indicators. However, the VEC model that considers external impacts achieves higher prediction accuracy than the general VEC model. The model estimates indicate that the growth in population, changes in national income, fluctuations in interest rates and changes in householder expenditure all play significant roles when explaining variations in construction demand. The VEC model with disturbances developed can serve as an experimentation using an advanced econometrical method which can be used to analyse the effect of specific events or factors on the construction market growth.

Increase in poorer students

Universities have swung open their doors to the country's poor, who are the fastest growing student demographic, Senate estimates has heard.

In the wake of the global financial crisis and publicity over universities' recruitment push, university enrolments are up 10 per cent overall this year, federal education officials have reported.

The level of representative underwriting and the underwriting costs of REIT SEOs

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate factors influencing the underwriting discount for US Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Seasoned Equity Offerings (SEOs).

Design/methodology/approach – The study provides new evidence on determinants of underwriting discounts with a comprehensive dataset of 783 US REIT SEOs from 1996 until June 2010. Ordinary least squares regressions are performed to estimate the effect of the level of representative underwriting along with other potential factors on underwriting discounts.

Findings – The study complements the well-documented notion of the economies of scale in SEO underwriting discounts. The equally (value) weighted underwriting discounts averaged 4.21 per cent (4.10 per cent) with a declining trend over time. The findings of this study show the statistically and economically significant negative effect of the level of representative underwriting on the underwriting discounts, as well as the significance of the structure of underwriting syndicate in determining the underwriting discounts. The findings suggest that issuers can minimize the costs of raising secondary equity capital by optimally allocating the underwriting business among the underwriters.

Originality/value – This paper adds to the international REIT SEO literature by exploring new evidence behind underwriting discounts. The study includes data before and after the REIT Modernization Act 1999 and during the recent global financial crisis period.

Reflections on teaching business ethics

The start of the twenty-first century witnessed a number of company scandals and ethical breaches that have brought to the forefront community feelings of anguish and disgust towards large companies in addition to spawning more legislation aimed at avoiding a repeat of these collapses. The question that arises is whether the past measures (including legislation) have worked, given the recent Global Financial Crisis (GFC) as it has raised more questions than it has answered. Against this backdrop, we need to consider whether business ethics can be taught to a person irrespective of their age? Should we as community members, customers, shareholders of today give up on the current senior managers who are mostly representatives of the baby boomers and concentrate on increasing ethical awareness of our current undergraduate students (at least of Generation Y and Z)? If we proceed with this argument as being both valuable and also possible, the next step is to consider the ways by which to teach business ethics to a group of students and this aim is the focus of the chapter.

Relationship-based procurement methods for public infrastructure – the way forward

Public infrastructure is crucial to promote and sustain a sustainable economic growth and a health community. A large amount of capital investment is generally required in infrastructure projects that motivate the involvement of the private sector in the delivery process. Various relationship-based procurement methods have been attempted to maximize value-for-money. In this paper, the problems and challenges that relationship-based procurement methods have been facing are explored. A particular focus is placed on the challenges for the public-private partnership (PPP) model. Possible strategies for adapting the PPP models in the post-Global Financial Crisis era are proposed and discussed. In addition, the challenges facing alliancing, which is one of the other important relationship-based procurement methods, are also examined. Views on infrastructure procurement in the future were sought from industry professionals via interviews and are reported in this paper as well.

Recession-oscopy : can universities be the light at the end?

This paper paints the philosophical and ethical backdrop to some of the issues raised in Australian Universities’ Review vol. 53, no. 2. It links academic performance pay; the measurement of research output; and the astonishing pay levels of vice chancellors to the present global financial crisis. These are explained as part of a general malaise of institutions, which has its roots in the early Enlightenment. Drawing from semioticians Charles Sanders Peirce and John Deely it uses the terms ideoscopy and cenoscopy to characterise the hijacking of unwarranted scientific status for much of the way our world is managed. But crisis can lead to opportunity. Consequently, the paper points to the glaring opportunity for thinkers who can articulate the present situation in a way which could avert disaster.

The direct costs of raising external equity capital for US REIT IPOs

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the total direct costs of raising external equity capital for US real estate investment trust (REIT) initial public offerings (IPOs).

Design/methodology/approach – The study provides recent evidence on total direct costs for a comprehensive dataset of 125 US REIT IPOs from 1996 until June 2010. A multivariate OLS regression is performed to determine significant factors influencing the level of total direct costs and also underwriting fees and non-underwriting direct expenses.

Findings – The study finds economies of scale in total direct costs, underwriting fees and non-underwriting expenses. The equally (value) weighted average total direct costs are 8.33 percent (7.52 percent), consisting of 6.49 percent (6.30 percent) underwriting fees and 1.87 percent (1.22 percent) non-underwriting direct expenses. The study finds a declining trend of total direct costs for post 2000 IPOs which is attributed to the declining trend in both underwriting fees and non-underwriting direct expenses. Offer size is a critical determinant for both total direct costs and their individual components and inversely affects these costs. The total direct costs are found significantly higher for equity REITs than for mortgage REITs and are also significantly higher for offers listed in New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Underwriting fees appear to be negatively influenced by the offer price, the number of representative underwriters involved in the issue, industry return volatility and the number of potential specific risk factors but positively influenced by prior quarter industry dividend yield and ownership limit identified in the prospectus. After controlling for time trend, the paper finds REIT IPOs incur higher non-underwriting direct expenses in response to higher industry return volatility prior to the offer.

Originality/value – This paper adds to the international REIT IPO literature by exploring a number of new influencing factors behind total direct costs, underwriting fees and non-underwriting direct expenses. The study includes data during the recent GFC period.

Initial public offerings of energy companies

This study analyses 158 energy company initial public offerings (IPOs) in Australia from January 1994 to December 2010, including the period of the global financial crisis (GFC). The study finds that energy company IPOs had an average 22.0 % underpricing and that those IPOs that sought to raise more equity capital and engaged underwriters had lower underpricing. There is also evidence that suggests energy company IPOs that offered options to their underwriters had higher underpricing returns, effectively cancelling the lower underpricing effect of the underwriting itself. The energy IPOs that raised equity capital after the 2007/8 global financial crisis do not appear to have offered on average, significantly different underpricing returns to their investors compared to those energy IPOs that raised capital prior to this GFC period. The findings of this study offer insights for issuers who seek to lower underpricing, for underwriters involved in the capital raising and for investors who are looking to invest in Australian energy company IPOs.

Mutually assured destruction or co-dependence? The G20 and the UN

The G20 forum has acted to crystallise important changes in the architecture of global governance emerging since the 1970s. This has seen the locus of power shift away from the United Nations (UN) System as smaller and poorer states become increasingly adept at exercising their power within UN structures. Yet it is too simple to set the G20 against the UN, for example as minilateralism versus multilateralism. While the UN seems increasingly constrained and less relevant, it is not about to disappear. Moreover, we argue there are two significant obstacles to the G20 claiming the mantle of dominant global governance institution. First, that minilateralism is still a form of multilateralism, and ultimately subject to the same problems with the generation of consensus if extended, as in the G20, to include sufficiently diverse state members for a claim of legitimacy. Second, its emergence from the Global Financial Crisis and historical focus on financial governance means its agenda is excessively narrow at a time when food and environmental crises command similar global political significance. We conclude by considering some of the different elements of the emerging G20/UN dynamic, and whether this emerging dialectic can enhance prospects for wide ranging reforms to global trade, finance and economic structures that are currently incapable of functioning sustainably or preventing wide scale famine.

Dynamic currency hedging for international stock portfolios

The paper studies dynamic currency risk hedging of international stock portfolios using a currency overlay. A dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) multivariate GARCH model is employed to estimate time-varying covariance among stock market returns and currency returns. The conditional covariance is then used in the estimation of risk-minimizing conditional hedge ratios. The study considers seven developed economies over the period January 2002 to April 2010 and estimates daily conditional hedge ratios for portfolios of various stock market combinations. Conditional hedging is shown to dominate traditional static hedging and unconditional hedging in terms of risk reduction both in-sample and out-of-sample, especially during the recent global financial crisis. Conditional hedging also proves to consistently reduce portfolio risk for various levels of foreign investments.

Innovative approaches to land acquisition and conservation management : the case of Fish River Station, Northern Territory

There has been a dramatic increase in the area that is within the National Reserve System since 2000 – from around 60 million hectares to around 100 million in 2008. This dramatic increase can be attributed to Indigenous Protected Areas and the acquisition of private or leasehold land for either addition to the public protected area estate or management as private protected areas. This growth has also been strategic, increasingly the reservation status of the most underreserved bioregions. However, the reality is the land acquisition has slowed since the global financial crisis of the late 2000s and this has led to new models with different partners coming to the fore. This chapter highlights one of those new models – the acquisition of Fish River Station in the Northern Territory for conservation.

A-REIT rights issues

Purpose – This is the first REIT paper to seek to empirically examine potential influencing factors on the discounts and underwriting fees of Australian REIT rights issues.

Design/methodology/approach – Using a methodology similar to Owen and Suchard, and Armitage, a sample of 62 A-REIT rights issues during 2001-2009 is analyzed. A variety of potential factors influencing discounts and underwriting fees are explored.

Findings – Over A$20 billion was raised by A-REIT rights issues during 2001-2009 (this around three times that raised through A-REIT initial public offerings during the same period). The mean offer price was discounted around 9.5 percent from the current market price and underwriting fees averaged 2.9 percent of gross proceeds raised – both substantially less than for industrial rights issues. The standard deviation of daily returns for the past year appears to influence the percentage discount offered to subscribers. This volatility was particularly noticeable in 2008 and 2009, during the global financial crisis, where new issues were discounted substantially so as to raise equity to repay debt. This historical risk variable appears paramount in determining the discounts to subscribers and fees to underwriters.

Practical implications – A-REITs seeking to minimize the discounts offered to subscribers and to minimize their underwriting costs with rights issue equity capital raisings must first minimize their share price volatility.

Originality/value – This paper adds to the international costs of capital raising literature of REITs by examining such costs with A-REIT rights issues and is the first paper to examine factors influencing these costs.

An investigation into the drivers of Australian REIT merger and acquisition announcements

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to use Australian Real Estate Investment Trust (A-REIT) data to empirically examine potential influencing factors on A-REITs becoming a bidder or a target in the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) area.

Design/methodology/approach – This study uses logistic regression analysis to investigate the odds of publically traded A-REITs being either a bidder or a target as a function of a number of financial and corporate governance variables.

Findings – Prior research in the US REIT M&A area has shown that target size is inversely related to takeover likelihood; in contrast, the authors’ Australian results show that size has a positive impact. Prior research on share price and asset performance has shown that underperformance increases the odds of an entity becoming a target, but this paper’s results further support these findings and provide confirmation of the inefficient management hypothesis. For acquirers it was found that leverage, cash balances, management structure, the level of shares held by related parties and the global financial crisis have an important impact on bidder likelihood.

Practical implications – Given that the literature suggests that investors can earn significant positive abnormal returns by owning targets, but incur significant abnormal losses by owning bidders, at announcement, this study will be useful to fund managers and other investors in A-REITs by investigating the characteristics of those firms that become targets and bidders.

Originality/value – This paper adds to the recent US REIT M&A literature by examining the second biggest REIT market in the world and reporting a number of factors that might influence A-REITs to become targets or bidders.