Toward the standardization of venture capital investment evaluation : decision criteria for rating investee business plans

This study examined the criteria used by venture capitalists to evaluate business plans in order to make investment decisions. A literature survey revealed two competing theories: “espoused criteria” where evaluation decisions are based on what venture capitalists say are the decisive factors; versus the use of “known attributes” that successful ventures actually possess. Brunswik’s Lens Model from Social Judgment Theory guided an empirical investigation of several different evaluation methods based on information contained in 129 business plans submitted for venture capital over a 3 year period. Data evaluation culminated in the comparison of the percentage of correct decisions (“hit-rate”) for each method. We found that decisions based on the known attributes of successful ventures have significantly better hit-rates than decisions made using espoused criteria. Discussion centred on the goal of achieving consistency in the conduct of venture analysis. Process standardization can aid in the achievement of consistency. Future research will both deepen and broaden insights.

A systematic approach to writing and rating entrepreneurial business plans

This investigation provides the predicate for an intended series of studies in the field of Venture Capital deal screening. At issue is the use of theory-based standards for systematic creation and assessment of entrepreneurial business plans. A systems based approach guided synthesis of research-based principles contained in the literature. Results culminated in the formal articulation and operationalization of 10 principles in the form of a questionnaire (entitled EBPAR, for ‘entrepreneurial business plan evaluation regime’). The instrument can serve dual duty as a guide for writing and a regime for rating Entrepreneurial Business Plans. Discussion focused on utility of the assessment regime and future research directions.

Ageing mallee eucalypt vegetation after fire : insights for successional trajectories in semi-arid mallee ecosystems

A critical requirement in the ecological management of fire is knowledge of the age-class distribution of the vegetation. Such knowledge is important because it underpins the distribution of ecological features important to plants and animals including retreat sites, food sources and foraging microhabitats. However, in many regions, knowledge of the age-class distribution of vegetation is severely constrained by the limited data available on fire history. Much fire-history mapping is restricted to post-1972 fires, following satellite imagery becoming widely available. To investigate fire history in the semi-arid Murray Mallee region in southern Australia, we developed regression models for six species of mallee eucalypt (Eucalyptus oleosa F.Muell. ex. Miq. subsp. oleosa, E. leptophylla F.Muell. ex. Miq., E. dumosa J. Oxley, E. costata subsp. murrayana L. A. S. Johnson & K. D. Hill, E. gracilis F.Muell. and E. socialis F.Muell. ex. Miq.) to quantify the relationship between mean stem diameter and stem age (indicated by fire-year) at sites of known time since fire. We then used these models to predict mean stem age, and thus infer fire-year, for sites where the time since fire was not known. Validation of the models with independent data revealed a highly significant correlation between the actual and predicted time since fire (r = 0.71, P < 0.001, n = 88), confirming the utility of this method for ageing stands of mallee eucalypt vegetation. Validation data suggest the models provide a conservative estimate of the age of a site (i.e. they may under-estimate the minimum age of sites >35 years since fire). Nevertheless, this approach enables examination of post-fire chronosequences in semi-arid mallee ecosystems to be extended from 35 years post-fire to over 100 years. The predicted ages identified for mallee stands imply a need for redefining what is meant by ‘old-growth’ mallee, and challenges current perceptions of an over-abundance of ‘long-unburnt’ mallee vegetation. Given the strong influence of fire on semi-arid mallee vegetation, this approach offers the potential for a better understanding of long-term successional dynamics and the status of biota in an ecosystem that encompasses more than 250 000 km² of southern Australia.

Fire management for biodiversity conservation : key research questions and our capacity to answer them

Knowing how species respond to fire regimes is essential for ecologically sustainable management. This axiom raises two important questions: (1) what knowledge is the most important to develop and (2) to what extent can current research methods deliver that knowledge? We identify three areas of required knowledge: (i) a mechanistic understanding of species’ responses to fire regimes; (ii) knowledge of how the spatial and temporal arrangement of fires influences the biota; and (iii) an understanding of interactions of fire regimes with other processes. We review the capacity of empirical research to address these knowledge gaps, and reveal many limitations. Manipulative experiments are limited by the number and scope of treatments that can be applied, natural experiments are limited by treatment availability and confounding factors, and longitudinal studies are difficult to maintain, particularly due to unplanned disturbance events. Simulation modelling is limited by the quality of the underlying empirical data and by uncertainty in how well model structure represents reality. Due to the constraints on large-scale, long-term research, the potential for management experiments to inform adaptive management is limited. Rather than simply recommending adaptive management, we define a research agenda to maximise the rate of learning in this difficult field. This includes measuring responses at a species level, building capacity to implement natural experiments, undertaking simulation modelling, and judicious application of experimental approaches. Developing ecologically sustainable fire management practices will require sustained research effort and a sophisticated research agenda based on carefully targeting appropriate methods to address critical management questions.

Resolving conflicts in fire management using decision theory: asset-protection versus biodiversity conservation

Agencies charged with nature conservation and protecting built-assets from fire face a policy dilemma because management that protects assets can have adverse impacts on biodiversity. Although conservation is often a policy goal, protecting built-assets usually takes precedence in fire management implementation. To make decisions that can better achieve both objectives, existing trade-offs must first be recognized, and then policies implemented to manage multiple objectives explicitly. We briefly review fire management actions that can conflict with biodiversity conservation. Through this review, we find that common management practices might not appreciably reduce the threat to built-assets but could have a large negative impact on biodiversity. We develop a framework based on decision theory that could be applied to minimize these conflicts. Critical to this approach is (1) the identification of the full range of management options and (2) obtaining data for evaluating the effectiveness of those options for achieving asset protection and conservation goals. This information can be used to compare explicitly the effectiveness of different management choices for conserving species and for protecting assets, given budget constraints. The challenge now is to gather data to quantify these trade-offs so that fire policy and practices can be better aligned with multiple objectives

Valuation and sustainability : are rating tools enough?

The lack of sufficient financial drivers are preventing significant investment in sustainability because stakeholders have only very limited ability to measure the sustainability of the building or understand the impact upon the value. Valuers are unable to indicate or clarify whether sustainability is affecting market value as there is an absence of detailed market evidence, sales data and lease transactions of sustainable building. Leaving both Valuers and other stakeholders uncertain of the value implication as there is no reliable evidence as to whether sustainable buildings are feasible (Lutzkendorf and Lorenz, 2005). One of the key barriers is the confusion evident in the industry particularly the measurement of sustainability in commercial property. Although a range of environmental rating tools exist for buildings globally in commercial property, the synergy between these tools and identification of the relationship between the measurement and market value is inherently blurred due to the unique nature of the compilation of points attributed in the rating tools for sustainability or energy certificates in commercial property. The paper examines the challenges that face the Valuation profession in assessing the impact of sustainability on market value.

The validity and internal structure of the bipolar depression rating scale (BDRS): data from a clinical trial of N-acetylcysteine as adjunctive therapy in bipolar disorder

Background: The phenomenology of unipolar and bipolar disorders differ in a number of ways, such as the presence of mixed states and atypical features. Conventional depression rating instruments are designed to capture the characteristics of unipolar depression and have limitations in capturing the breadth of bipolar disorder.

Method: The Bipolar Depression Rating Scale (BDRS) was administered together with the Montgomery Asberg Rating Scale (MADRS) and Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS) in a double-blind randomised placebo-controlled clinical trial of N-acetyl cysteine for bipolar disorder (N = 75).

Results: A factor analysis showed a two-factor solution: depression and mixed symptom clusters. The BDRS has strong internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.917), the depression cluster showed robust correlation with the MADRS (r = 0.865) and the mixed subscale correlated with the YMRS (r = 0.750).

Conclusion: The BDRS has good internal validity and inter-rater reliability and is sensitive to change in the context of a clinical trial.

Distribution, ecology and conservation of small mammals in fire-prone landscapes

Management of fire for biodiversity conservation is a global issue. This research provides new insights into the distribution of mammals in fire-prone eco-systems. A key outcome of this thesis is that understanding the role of fire over broad spatial scales and long time periods will benefit ecological and conservation management.