Methodological shifts in ratio-based modelling of corporate collapse

The year 1968 saw a major shift from univariate to multivariate methodological approaches to ratio-based modelling of corporate collapse. This was facilitated by the introduction of a new statistical tool called Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA). However, it did not take long before other statistical tools were developed. The primary objective for developing these tools was to enable deriving models that would at least do as good a job asMDA, but rely on fewer assumptions. With the introduction of new statistical tools, researchers became pre-occupied with testing them in signalling collapse. lLTUong the ratio-based approaches were Logit analysis, Neural Network analysis, Probit analysis, ID3, Recursive Partitioning Algorithm, Rough Sets analysis, Decomposition analysis, Going Concern Advisor, Koundinya and Purl judgmental approach, Tabu Search and Mixed Logit analysis. Regardless of which methodological approach was chosen, most were compared to MDA. This paper reviews these various approaches. Emphasis is placed on how they fared against MDA in signalling corporate collapse.

A comprehensive formal ranking of the popularity of financial ratios in multivariate modeling of corporate collapse

This paper provides a fonnal ranking of the popularity of financial ratios in modeling corporate collapse. The analysis identified 48 financial ratios and ranked them according to their usefulness as portrayed in 53 studies that have utilized such ratios in modeling corporate collapse. The methodologies adopted in those studies are predominantly of the "multivariate" type. The 53 studies extend from 1966 to 2002, inclusive.

Corporate governance failure and its impact on National Australia Bank's performance

The National Australia Bank (NAB) is the largest financial services institution listed on the Australian stock exchange and is within the 30 most profitable financial services organisation in the world. In January 2004, the bank disclosed to the public that it had identified losses relating to unauthorised trading in foreign currency options amounting to AUD360 million. This foreign exchange debacle was classified as operational risk, the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed processes, people, or systems and reiterated the importance of corporate governance for banks. Concurrent issues of National Australia Bank’s AUD4.1 billion loss on US HomeSide loans in 2001, the degree of strength of their risk management practices and lack of auditor independence, were raised by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in 2004, reinforcing the view that corporate governance had not been given the priority it deserved over a number of years. This paper will assess and critically analyse the impact of corporate governance failure by management and Board of Directors on NAB’s performance over the years 2001-2005.

A dynamic ratio-based model for signalling corporate collapse

The recognition of behavioural elements in finance has caused major shifts in the analytic framework pertaining to ratio-based modeling of corporate collapse. The modeling approach so far has been based on the classical rational theory in behavioural economics, which assumes that the financial ratios (i.e., the predictors of collapse) are static over time. The paper argues that, in the absence of rational economic theory, a static model is flawed, and that a suitable model instead is one that reflects the heuristic behavioural framework, which is what characterises behavioural attributes of company directors and in turn influences the accounting numbers used in calculating the financial ratios. This calls for a dynamic model: dynamic in the sense that it does not rely on a coherent assortment of financial ratios for signaling corporate collapse over multiple time periods. This paper provides empirical evidence, using a data set of Australian publicly listed companies, to demonstrate that a dynamic model consistently outperforms its static counterpart in signaling the event of collapse. On average, the overall predictive power of the dynamic model is 86.83% compared to an average overall predictive power of 69.35% for the static model.

Performing on boards: the link between governance and corporate reputation in nonprofit arts boards

This paper is built on the hypothesis that good governance and reputation are inextricably linked. It takes the governance of performing arts organizations in Queensland, Australia as a case study, and focuses on the role of the nonprofit arts board and its practices of governance and measures of effectiveness. Because of the financial constraints under which arts companies operate, their sustainability relies on audiences and on government or corporate support. The reputation of the company flows from the board's capacity to manage finances, stakeholders and mission. In-depth interviews with board chairs and general managers revealed that strong management systems and rigorous financial reporting are the drivers of good governance. Innovation in product development and artistic excellence are secondary in reputation to these measures. The paper proposes a model of good governance for arts boards.

Mad hatter's corporate tea party

This paper aims to provide an insight into the corporate greed and consequent corporate collapses of companies such as HIH, One.Tel and Harris Scarfe in Australia, while concurrently, Enron, WorldCom and other companies were attracting the attention of the accounting profession, the regulators and the general public in the USA. It is argued that the rise in economic rationalism and the related increased materialism of both the public and company directors and managers, fed the corporate excesses that resulted in spectacular corporate collapses, including one of the world’s largest accounting firms. The opportunistic behaviour of directors, and managers and the lack of transparency and integrity in corporations, was compounded by the failure of the corporate watch-dogs, such as auditors and regulators, to protect the public interest. If the history of bad corporate behaviour is not to be repeated, the religion of materialism needs to be recognised and addressed, to ensure any corporate governance reforms proposed for the future will be effective.

Further evidence on the corporate use of derivatives in Australia : the case of foreign currency and interest rate instruments

In a recent issue of this journal Nguyen and Faff (2002) reported on an empirical exploration of the motives behind the aggregate use of financial derivatives by Australian companies. Employing the same sample of firms, the current paper extends their analysis to investigate similar issues, this time focussing separately on foreign currency and interest rate derivatives. At a specific level, our results reveal the following. A firm is more likely to use foreign currency derivatives if it is large and has more debt in its capital structure. Interest rate derivatives, on the other hand, are more likely to be used if a firm is larger, more levered, more liquid and pays higher dividends. These results are consistent with existing hedging theories. Market to book value (proxying growth opportunities), however, portrays an inconsistent relationship with the likelihood of interest rate derivative usage. When it comes to the extent of usage, a firm uses foreign currency derivatives more extensively if it is smaller, pays higher dividends and has more debt. Similarly, interest rate derivatives are used more extensively to address a high level of debt and a high dividend payout policy. At a general level, the current study confirms the core finding of Nguyen and Faff (2002), namely, that Australian companies use derivatives with a view to value maximisation.