Improving the cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular disease prevention in Australia : a modelling study

Background : Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Like many countries, Australia is currently changing its guidelines for cardiovascular disease prevention from drug treatment for everyone with 'high blood pressure' or 'high cholesterol', to prevention based on a patient's absolute risk. In this research, we model cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular disease prevention with blood pressure and lipid drugs in Australia under three different scenarios: (1) the true current practice in Australia; (2) prevention as intended under the current guidelines; and (3) prevention according to proposed absolute risk levels. We consider the implications of changing to absolute risk-based cardiovascular disease prevention, for the health of the Australian people and for Government health sector expenditure over the long term.

Methods : We evaluate cost-effectiveness of statins, diuretics, ACE inhibitors, calcium channel blockers and beta-blockers, for Australian men and women, aged 35 to 84 years, who have never experienced a heart disease or stroke event. Epidemiological changes and health care costs are simulated by age and sex in a discrete time Markov model, to determine total impacts on population health and health sector costs over the lifetime, from which we derive cost-effectiveness ratios in 2008 Australian dollars per quality-adjusted life year.

Results : Cardiovascular disease prevention based on absolute risk is more cost-effective than prevention under the current guidelines based on single risk factor thresholds, and is more cost-effective than the current practice, which does not follow current clinical guidelines. Recommending blood pressure-lowering drugs to everyone with at least 5% absolute risk and statin drugs to everyone with at least 10% absolute risk, can achieve current levels of population health, while saving $5.4 billion for the Australian Government over the lifetime of the population. But savings could be as high as $7.1 billion if Australia could match the cheaper price of statin drugs in New Zealand.

Conclusions : Changing to absolute risk-based cardiovascular disease prevention is highly recommended for reducing health sector spending, but the Australian Government must also consider measures to reduce the cost of statin drugs, over and above the legislated price cuts of November 2010.

Which interventions offer best value for money in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease?

Background
Despite many decades of declining mortality rates in the Western world, cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of death worldwide. In this research we evaluate the optimal mix of lifestyle, pharmaceutical and population-wide interventions for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Methods and Findings
In a discrete time Markov model we simulate the ischaemic heart disease and stroke outcomes and cost impacts of intervention over the lifetime of all Australian men and women, aged 35 to 84 years, who have never experienced a heart disease or stroke event. Best value for money is achieved by mandating moderate limits on salt in the manufacture of bread, margarine and cereal. A combination of diuretic, calcium channel blocker, ACE inhibitor and low-cost statin, for everyone with at least 5% five-year risk of cardiovascular disease, is also cost-effective, but lifestyle interventions aiming to change risky dietary and exercise behaviours are extremely poor value for money and have little population health benefit.

Conclusions
There is huge potential for improving efficiency in cardiovascular disease prevention in Australia. A tougher approach from Government to mandating limits on salt in processed foods and reducing excessive statin prices, and a shift away from lifestyle counselling to more efficient absolute risk-based prescription of preventive drugs, could cut health care costs while improving population health.

Australia's health 2006 : the tenth biennial report of the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare

The report shows that Australians generally have good health and are privileged to have a range of health care services available to them. There are stark exceptions to this that can be confronting—even if well-known already—notably the generally much poorer health status of Indigenous Australians.

Health care service provider and funding arrangements are both increasingly complex and increasingly costly to both individuals and taxpayers. A continuing challenge is how to balance both the complementary and competitive perspectives of government and non-government agencies, professional groups, and small businesses. Overall, national expenditure on health was 9.7% of GDP in 2003–04; and average health expenditure per person has grown by an average 3.8% each year between 1997–98 to 2002–03. Expenditure on aids and appliances, health research and pharmaceuticals contributed more to this growth than other areas.

While the ageing of the population is having a significant impact on the number and type of health care services delivered, high quality services for children continue to be a priority. Australia’s health 2006 has a special chapter focusing on children and their health. The chapter highlights the fact that while our children are generally very healthy, there are concerns that their ongoing health could be affected by more and more of them becoming overweight or obese. Levels of diabetes are now rising among our children and it is a continuing concern that asthma and mental health problems affect so many of them.

Australia's health 2004 : the ninth biennial report of the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare

Australia's Health 2004 is the ninth biennial health report of the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. It is the nation's authoritative source of information on patterns of health and illness, determinants of health, the supply and use of health services, and health services expenditure. The report also includes a special chapter on the health of older Australians. Australia's Health 2004 is an essential reference and information resource for all Australians with an interest in health.

Australia's health 2002 : the eighth biennial report of the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare

Australia's Health 2002 is the eighth biennial health report of the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. It is the nation's authoritative source of information on patterns of health and illness, determinants of health, the supply and use of health services, and health service costs and performance. Australia's Health 2002 is an essential reference and information resource for all Australians with an interest in health.

Australia's health 2000 : the seventh biennial report of the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare

Australia's Health 2000 is the seventh biennial health report of the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. It is the nation's authoritative source of information on patterns of health and illness, determinants of health, the supply and use of health services, and health services costs and performance.This 2000 edition serves as a summary of Australia's health record at the end of the twentieth century. In addition, a special chapter is presented on changes in Australia's disease profile over the last 100 years.Australia's Health 2000 is an essential reference and information source for all Australians with an interest in health.

Stores healthy options project in remote indigenous communities (SHOP@RIC): a protocol of a randomised trial promoting healthy food and beverage purchases through price discounts and in-store nutrition education

Background
Indigenous Australians suffer a disproportionate burden of preventable chronic disease compared to their non-Indigenous counterparts – much of it diet-related. Increasing fruit and vegetable intakes and reducing sugar-sweetened soft-drink consumption can reduce the risk of preventable chronic disease. There is evidence from some general population studies that subsidising healthier foods can modify dietary behaviour. There is little such evidence relating specifically to socio-economically disadvantaged populations, even though dietary behaviour in such populations is arguably more likely to be susceptible to such interventions.

This study aims to assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of a price discount intervention with or without an in-store nutrition education intervention on purchases of fruit, vegetables, water and diet soft-drinks among remote Indigenous communities.

Methods/Design
We will utilise a randomised multiple baseline (stepped wedge) design involving 20 communities in remote Indigenous Australia. The study will be conducted in partnership with two store associations and twenty Indigenous store boards. Communities will be randomised to either i) a 20% price discount on fruit, vegetables, water and diet soft-drinks; or ii) a combined price discount and in-store nutrition education strategy. These interventions will be initiated, at one of five possible time-points, spaced two-months apart. Weekly point-of-sale data will be collected from each community store before, during, and for six months after the six-month intervention period to measure impact on purchasing of discounted food and drinks. Data on physical, social and economic factors influencing weekly store sales will be collected in order to identify important covariates. Intervention fidelity and mediators of behaviour change will also be assessed.

Discussion
This study will provide original evidence on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of price discounts with or without an in-store nutrition education intervention on food and drink purchasing among a socio-economically disadvantaged population in a real-life setting.