Expert systems modeling for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation in agricultural systems at regional level

Australian agriculture is very susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, with major shifts in temperature and rainfall projected. In this context, this paper describes a research methodology for assessing potential climate change impacts on, and formulating adaptation options for, agriculture at regional level. The methodology was developed and applied in the analysis of climate change impacts on key horticultural commodities—pome fruits (apples and pears), stone fruits (peaches and nectarines) and wine grapes—in the Goulburn Broken catchment management region, State of Victoria, Australia. Core components of the methodology are mathematical models that enable to spatially represent the degree of biophysical land suitability for the growth of agricultural commodities in the region of interest given current and future climatic conditions. The methodology provides a sound analytic approach to 1) recognise regions under threat of declines in agricultural production due to unfolding climatic changes; 2) identify alternative agricultural systems better adapted to likely future climatic conditions and 3) investigate incremental and transformational adaptation actions to improve the problem situations that are being created by climate change.

Ecological connectivity or barrier fence? Critical choices on the agricultural margins of Western Australia

Western Australia's State Barrier Fence represents a continuation of colonial era attitudes that considered kangaroos, emus and dingoes as 'vermin'. Recent plans to upgrade and extend the Barrier Fence have shown little regard for ecological impacts or statutory environmental assessment processes.

Gold and silver mining in the 16th and 17th centuries, land titles and agricultural productivity

Although agricultural productivity is critical for economic development very little is known about the causes of the large dispersion in agricultural productivity across the world. Microeconomic studies increasingly stress the lack of land rights in many poor countries as an important source of low productivity. This paper examines the role played by land titles in explaining differences in agricultural productivity for 93 countries. Using the per capita accumulated value of gold and silver production in the 16th and 17th centuries as instruments for land rights it is shown that enforcement of land titles is a significant source of agricultural productivity inequality across the world.

Acute human lethal toxicity of agricultural pesticides: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: agricultural pesticide poisoning is a major public health problem in the developing world, killing at least 250,000-370,000 people each year. Targeted pesticide restrictions in Sri Lanka over the last 20 years have reduced pesticide deaths by 50% without decreasing agricultural output. However, regulatory decisions have thus far not been based on the human toxicity of formulated agricultural pesticides but on the surrogate of rat toxicity using pure unformulated pesticides. We aimed to determine the relative human toxicity of formulated agricultural pesticides to improve the effectiveness of regulatory policy. METHODS AND FINDINGS: we examined the case fatality of different agricultural pesticides in a prospective cohort of patients presenting with pesticide self-poisoning to two clinical trial centers from April 2002 to November 2008. Identification of the pesticide ingested was based on history or positive identification of the container. A single pesticide was ingested by 9,302 patients. A specific pesticide was identified in 7,461 patients; 1,841 ingested an unknown pesticide. In a subset of 808 patients, the history of ingestion was confirmed by laboratory analysis in 95% of patients. There was a large variation in case fatality between pesticides-from 0% to 42%. This marked variation in lethality was observed for compounds within the same chemical and/or WHO toxicity classification of pesticides and for those used for similar agricultural indications. CONCLUSION: the human data provided toxicity rankings for some pesticides that contrasted strongly with the WHO toxicity classification based on rat toxicity. Basing regulation on human toxicity will make pesticide poisoning less hazardous, preventing hundreds of thousands of deaths globally without compromising agricultural needs. Ongoing monitoring of patterns of use and clinical toxicity for new pesticides is needed to identify highly toxic pesticides in a timely manner.

Cholinesterase Research Outreach Project (CROP): measuring cholinesterase activity and pesticide use in an agricultural community

BACKGROUND: Australian farmers and their workers are exposed to a wide variety of pesticides. Organophosphate (OP) insecticides are a widely used class of pesticide used for animal husbandry practices (Naphthalophos for sheep dipping, jetting and drench), crop production for pest control (Dimethoate) and in public health (Maldison for head lice). Acute poisonings with this class of insecticide are reported among agricultural workers and children around the globe, due to the inhibition of acetylcholinesterase (AChE). Less is known about chronic exposures. Regular monitoring of erythrocyte AChE will enable farmers to identify potential exposure to organophosphate insecticides and take action to reduce exposures and improve their health and safety practices. This study aims to assess and improve the integration of AChE monitoring into routine point of care health clinics, and provide farming and non-farming people with a link between their AChE activity and their household chemical and agrichemical use. METHODS/DESIGN: The research will target individuals who work on mixed farming enterprises and routinely using OPs (n = 50) and non-farmers (n = 30). Baseline data are collected regarding demographic, health conditions and behaviours, Kessler 10 (K10) scores, chemical use and personal protection. Baseline anthropometric measures include height, weight, hip and waist circumference, body fat analysis and, biochemical analysis of fasted total serum cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density cholesterol (LDL), high-density cholesterol (HDL) and blood glucose. Analysis of erythrocyte cholinesterase (EAChE) activity is also conducted using a finger prick test. Testing of EAChE is then repeated in all participants every 3 weeks for a maximum of three times over a period 10 weeks. Participants are provided with full feedback and counselling about their EAChE activity after each reading and a detailed summary provided to all participants at the completion of the study. Data will be analysed using repeated measures within a general linear model. DISCUSSION: This work will provide an evidence base and recommendations for the integration of EAChE monitoring into Australian rural health clinics, leading to research which will further quantify pesticide exposure both on the farm and in the home, highlighting the importance of sustaining and providing a safe work and home environment for farming communities. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ACTRN12613001256763.