An econometric analysis of the determinants of fertility for China, 1952-2000

This study investigates the determinants of the fertility rate in China over the 1952-2000 period. Consistent with theory, the key explanatory variables in our fertility model are real per capita income, infant mortality rate, female illiteracy and female labour force participation rates. The long-run results and the test for cointegration are based on the Johansen (1988) and Johansen & Juselius (1990) approach. Our long-run results conform to theory in that all variables appear with their expected signs, and the dummy variable used to capture the effects of the family planning policy indicates that in the years of the policy, fertility rates have been falling by around 10-12%. Our results suggest that socio-economic development - consistent with the traditional structural hypothesis - played a key role in China's fertility transition.

Individual, social and environmental determinants of participation in physical activity for prostate cancer survivors

Participation in physical activity helps prostate cancer survivors to cope with the side effects of treatment, enhances quality of life and decreases the risks of many of the comorbidities to which survivors are highly susceptible. Prostate cancer survivors, however, are less likely than other cancer survivors (e.g., breast and colorectal) to increase physical activity after diagnosis. Interventions have been only modestly successful at increasing participation in physical activity for prostate cancers survivors and more research is needed to increase our understanding of the determinants of physical activity for this group. Using a social ecological framework, this qualitative research sought to examine the individual, social and environmental determinants of participation in physical activity for prostate cancer survivors. In-depth interviews were conducted with 20 survivors of prostate cancer aged between 35 and 75 years. Participants were drawn from a public and a private health service and from a range of treatment types. We are currently collecting data for this study and preliminary themes will be discussed at the conference (abstract will be updated once findings are known).

Affective determinants of treatment engagement in violent offenders

Affective factors are likely to play a major role in determining the extent to which offenders are able to engage with, and benefit from, treatment. In this article, it is argued that the relationship between affect and treatment engagement may be understood in three ways: the access the client has to emotional states, the ability to express such states, and the willingness of the client to do this in the therapeutic session. It is suggested that affective determinants of treatment readiness can be understood with reference tomodels of emotional regulation and that attention to these affective factors in the early stages of treatment is likely to promote engagement, reduce attrition, and consequently improve treatment outcomes for violent offenders.

Occupational and non-occupational physical activity and the social determinants of physical activity : results from the Health Survey for England

Background: This article aims to examine the relative contribution of occupational activity to English adults’ meeting of government recommendations for physical activity (PA).

Methods: Data were extracted from a cross-sectional survey of householders in the UK via the Health Survey for England.¹ In total, 14,018 adult participants were included in the analysis. Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine the odds of achieving PA recommendations with and without including occupational activity and to examine the contribution of gender and social and demographic characteristics.

Results: When occupational PA was included, 36% of men and 25% of women were active at the recommended level. Once occupational PA was removed, these proportions were 23% and 19%, respectively. These results were socially patterned, most notably by age and gender.

Conclusions: Occupational PA provides a substantial contribution to those meeting the government target for PA.

Modifiable determinants of youth violence in Australia and the United States : a longitudinal study

Youth violence is a global problem. Few studies have examined whrther the prevalence or predictors of youth violence are similar in comparable Western countries like Australia and the United States (US). In the current article, analyses are conducted using two waves of data collected as part of a longitudinal study of adolescent development in approximately 4,000 students aged 12 to 16 years in Victoria, Australia and Washington State, US. Students completed a self-report survey of problem behaviours including violent behaviour, as well as risk and protective factors across five domains (individual, family, peer, school, community). Compared to Washington State, rates of attacking or beating another over the past 12 months were lower in Victoria for females in the first survey and higher for Victorian males in the follow-up survey. Preliminary analyses did not show state-specific predictors of violent behaviour. In the final multivariate analyses of the combined Washington State and Victorian samples, protective factors were being female and student emotion control. Risk factors were prior violent behaviour, family conflict, association with violent peers, community disorganisation, community norms favourable to drug use, school suspensions and arrests. Given the similarity of influential factors in North America and Australia, application of US early intervention and prevention programs may be warranted, with some tailoring to the Australian context.

Downside beta and the cross-sectional determinants of listed property trust returns

This study examines the importance of downside beta when seeking to explain variations in listed property trust (LPT) returns in Australia between 1993 and 2005. The results reveal that downside beta outperforms conventional beta and provides higher explanatory power to the cross-sectional LPT return variations. The results also indicate that investors only require a premium for downside risk. However, the explanatory power of downside beta has diminished once the co-kurtosis of LPTs is controlled. Interestingly, the results also reveal that by itself downside beta is unable to fully explain returns in line with strong evidence for momentum and book-to-market ratio. The findings provide additional insights for investors and real estate analysts into the pricing of LPTs.

Virulence determinants of infectious bursal disease virus

The very virulent (vv) pathotype of infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV) has spread rapidly throughout Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Although Australia is currently unaffected, there remains the potential for incursion of an exotic isolate. The aim of this study was to identify putative virulence determinants of IBDV to facilitate the development of improved diagnostic assays for detection and characterisation of vvIBDV isolates. Sequencing of Indonesian vvIBDV Tasik94 revealed a unique substitution [ A�¨S222] in the hypervariable region (HVR) of viral protein (VP) VP2, which did not appear to impinge on virulence or antigenicity. Phylogenetic analyses indicated that Tasik94 was closely related to Asian and European vvIBDV strains. Extensive alignment of deduced protein sequences across the HVR of VP2 identified residuesI242 I256 and I294 as putative markers of the vv phcnotype. Comparison of the pathology induced by mildly-virulent Australian IBDV 002/73 and Indonesian vvIBDV Tasik94, revealed that histological lesions in the spleen, thymus and bone marrow were restricted to Tasik94-infected birds, suggesting the enhanced pathogenicity of vvIBDV might be attributed to replication in non-bursal lymphoid organs. The biological significance of the VP2 HVR in virulence was assessed using recombinant viruses generated by reverse genetics. Both genomic segments of Australian IBDV 002/73, and recombinant segment A constructs in which the HVR of 002/73 was replaced with the corresponding region of either tissue culture-adapted virus or vvIBDV (Tasik94), were cloned behind T7 RNA polymerase promoter sequences. In vitro transcription/translation of each construct resulted in expression of viral proteins. Co-transfection of synthetic RNA transcripts initiated replication of both tissue culture-adapted parental and recombinant viruses, however attempts to rescue non-adapted viruses in specific-pathogen-free (SPF) chickens were unsuccessful. Nucleotide sequence variation in the HVR of VP2 was exploited for the development of a new diagnostic assay to rapidly detect exotic IBDV isolates, including vvIBDV, using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) amplification and Bmrl restriction enzyme digestion. The assay was capable of differentiating between endemic and exotic IBDV in 96% of 105 isolates sequenced to date.

Family food environments as determinants of children's eating : implications for obesity prevention

The prevalence of childhood obesity is escalating rapidly and it considered to be a major public health problem. Diet is a recognised precursor of fatness, and current evidence supports the premise that in Westernised countries, the dietary intakes of children are likely to be important in obesity genesis. However, we have a relatively poor understanding of the environments in which a child’s eating is learnt and maintained. Much of the existing work in this area is based on small-scale or experimental studies, or has been derived from homogeneous populations within the USA. Despite these limitations, there is evidence that aspects of the child’s family environment are likely to be important in determining obesity risk in children. This thesis examines the impact of the family food environment on a child’s eating through two related studies. The first study, titled the Children and Family Eating (CAFÉ) study comprised three phases. Phase one involved qualitative interviews with 17 parents of 5-6 year-old children to explore parental perceptions regarding those factors in a child’s environment believed to influence the development of their child’s eating habits. These interviews were used to inform the development of quantitative measures of the family food environment. The second phase involved the development of a Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) to assess dietary intake in 5-6 year-olds. The FFQ was informed by analysis of 1995 Australian National Nutrition Survey data. In the final phase the relationships between dietary intakes of 5-6 year-old children, and potential predictors of dietary intake were examined in a cross-sectional study of 560 families. Predictors included measures of: parental perceptions of the adequacy of their child’s diet; food availability and accessibility; child-feeding; the opportunities for parental modelling of food intake; a child’s television exposure; maternal Body Mass Index; and maternal education. Analysis of the CAFÉ data provides unique information regarding the relationships between a child’s family food environment and their food consumption. Models developed for a range of dietary outcomes considered to be predictive of increased risk for obesity, including total energy and fat intakes, vegetable variety, vegetable consumption, and high-energy (non-dairy) fluid consumption, explained between 11 and 20 percent of the variance in dietary intake. Two aspects of the family food environment, parental perception of a child’s dietary adequacy, and the total minutes of television viewed per day, were frequently found to be predictive of dietary outcomes likely to promote fatness in these children. The second study, titled the Parent Education and Support (PEAS) Feeding Intervention Study, was a prospective pre/post non-randomised intervention trial that assessed the impact of a feeding intervention to 240 first-time mothers of one-year-old children. This intervention focused on one aspect of the family food environment, child-feeding, which has been proposed as influential in the development of obesogenic eating behaviours. In this study, Maternal and Child Health Nurses (MCHNs), using a ‘Division of Responsibility’ model of feeding, taught parents to provide nutritious food at regular intervals and to let children decide if to eat and how much to eat. Thus parents were encourages to food their child without exerting pressure, or employing coercion or rewards (controlling behaviours). The aim was to influence parental attitudes and beliefs regarding child-feeding. Through the use of these feeding techniques, this intervention also aimed to increase the variety of fruits and vegetables a child consumed by teaching parents to persist with offering these foods, over the year of the intervention, in non-emotive environments. Fruits and vegetables were chosen in this intervention because they are likely to be protective in the development of obesity. Analysis of the PEAS data suggests that this low-level feeding intervention, delivered through existing Maternal and Child Health services, was modestly effective in changing parental attitudes and beliefs regarding the feeding of young children. Further, the validity of fruits offered to intervention group children increased. This thesis expands the existing knowledge base by providing a comprehensive analysis of the relative impact of aspects of the family environment on dietary intakes of 5-6 year-olds. Further, the analysis of a feeding intervention in first-time parents provides important insights regarding the potential to influence child-feeding and the impact this may have on the promotion of eating behaviours protective against obesity.

Determinants of Central bank independence and governance : problems and policy implications

Central bank independence and governance (CBIG) is a term subject to conflicting definitions and so its related studies are difficult to compare. This paper therefore focuses on developing of a more useable definition, and an index model identifying the determinants of independence and governance and their possible policy implications. It also examines various independence measurement tools such as ranking and index. The index model resulting centres on key central bank independence and corporate governance issues, such as, legal aspects, political aspects, price stability objective aspects, exchange rate policy aspects, monetary policy and deficit financing aspects and finally, transparency and accountability aspects.

A panel data analysis of the determinants of oil consumption : the case of Australia

The goal of this paper is to examine the determinants of oil consumption for a panel consisting of six Australian States and one territory, namely Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia, Western Australia, and the Northern territory, for the period 1985–2006. We find that oil consumption, oil prices and income are panel cointegrated. We estimate long-run elasticities and find that oil prices have had a statistically insignificant impact on oil consumption, while income has had a statistically significant positive effect on oil consumption.

Determinants of efficient risk allocation in privately financed public infrastructure projects in Australia

Risk allocation in privately financed public infrastructure projects, which are mainly referred to as public-private partnership (PPP) projects, is a challenging job due to the nature of incomplete contracting. An investigation into the mechanism that guides the formation of efficient risk allocation strategies is thus desirable. Drawing on the transaction cost economics and resource-based view of organizational capability, this paper has identified five main features of the transactions associated with risk allocation in PPP projects. They include partners’ risk management routine, partners’ risk management mechanism, partners’ cooperation history, risk management environmental uncertainty, and partners’ risk management commitment. For achieving cost efficiency, different risk allocation strategies may suit different conditions of the features. Accordingly, a theoretical framework and five hypotheses were proposed for testing. Data collected in an industrywide survey were analyzed using multiple linear regression technique. It was found that generally, the identified features are determinants in the decision-making process of efficient risk allocation. Therefore, the proposed theoretical framework provides both government and private agencies with not only a logical and holistic understanding of but also a support tool for decision making on risk allocation strategy in PPP projects. Study limitations and future research directions are also set out.