A simple parametric method for reducing sample sizes in gut passage time trials

Seed dispersal is now regularly analyzed using spatially explicit models, relying in part on frugivore gut passage times to produce model outputs. In determining species-specific gut passage times, there is a trade-off in sample size between minimizing collection effort and maintaining statistical reliability. Here we demonstrate that a two-parameter lognormal parametric distribution reliably fits empirical gut passage time distributions and is easily parameterized using relatively small data sets of approximately 30 defecations. We suggest this approach as a statistically reliable substitute for larger empirical gut passage data sets in seed dispersal modeling, and also as a way of using published gut passage data sets to parameterize new models.

Modeling intelligent agents for web-based information gathering

The recent emergence of intelligent agent technology and advances in information gathering have been the important steps forward in efficiently managing and using the vast amount of information now available on the Web to make informed decisions. There are, however, still many problems that need to be overcome in the information gathering research arena to enable the delivery of relevant information required by end users. Good decisions cannot be made without sufficient, timely, and correct information. Traditionally it is said that knowledge is power, however, nowadays sufficient, timely, and correct information is power. So gathering relevant information to meet user information needs is the crucial step for making good decisions. The ideal goal of information gathering is to obtain only the information that users need (no more and no less). However, the volume of information available, diversity formats of information, uncertainties of information, and distributed locations of information (e.g. World Wide Web) hinder the process of gathering the right information to meet the user needs. Specifically, two fundamental issues in regard to efficiency of information gathering are mismatch and overload. The mismatch means some information that meets user needs has not been gathered (or missed out), whereas, the overload means some gathered information is not what users need. Traditional information retrieval has been developed well in the past twenty years. The introduction of the Web has changed people's perceptions of information retrieval. Usually, the task of information retrieval is considered to have the function of leading the user to those documents that are relevant to his/her information needs. The similar function in information retrieval is to filter out the irrelevant documents (or called information filtering). Research into traditional information retrieval has provided many retrieval models and techniques to represent documents and queries. Nowadays, information is becoming highly distributed, and increasingly difficult to gather. On the other hand, people have found a lot of uncertainties that are contained in the user information needs. These motivate the need for research in agent-based information gathering. Agent-based information systems arise at this moment. In these kinds of systems, intelligent agents will get commitments from their users and act on the users behalf to gather the required information. They can easily retrieve the relevant information from highly distributed uncertain environments because of their merits of intelligent, autonomy and distribution. The current research for agent-based information gathering systems is divided into single agent gathering systems, and multi-agent gathering systems. In both research areas, there are still open problems to be solved so that agent-based information gathering systems can retrieve the uncertain information more effectively from the highly distributed environments. The aim of this thesis is to research the theoretical framework for intelligent agents to gather information from the Web. This research integrates the areas of information retrieval and intelligent agents. The specific research areas in this thesis are the development of an information filtering model for single agent systems, and the development of a dynamic belief model for information fusion for multi-agent systems. The research results are also supported by the construction of real information gathering agents (e.g., Job Agent) for the Internet to help users to gather useful information stored in Web sites. In such a framework, information gathering agents have abilities to describe (or learn) the user information needs, and act like users to retrieve, filter, and/or fuse the information. A rough set based information filtering model is developed to address the problem of overload. The new approach allows users to describe their information needs on user concept spaces rather than on document spaces, and it views a user information need as a rough set over the document space. The rough set decision theory is used to classify new documents into three regions: positive region, boundary region, and negative region. Two experiments are presented to verify this model, and it shows that the rough set based model provides an efficient approach to the overload problem. In this research, a dynamic belief model for information fusion in multi-agent environments is also developed. This model has a polynomial time complexity, and it has been proven that the fusion results are belief (mass) functions. By using this model, a collection fusion algorithm for information gathering agents is presented. The difficult problem for this research is the case where collections may be used by more than one agent. This algorithm, however, uses the technique of cooperation between agents, and provides a solution for this difficult problem in distributed information retrieval systems. This thesis presents the solutions to the theoretical problems in agent-based information gathering systems, including information filtering models, agent belief modeling, and collection fusions. It also presents solutions to some of the technical problems in agent-based information systems, such as document classification, the architecture for agent-based information gathering systems, and the decision in multiple agent environments. Such kinds of information gathering agents will gather relevant information from highly distributed uncertain environments.

Selection of working correlation structure and best model in GEE analyses of longitudinal data

The Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) method is one of the most commonly used statistical methods for the analysis of longitudinal data in epidemiological studies. A working correlation structure for the repeated measures of the outcome variable of a subject needs to be specified by this method. However, statistical criteria for selecting the best correlation structure and the best subset of explanatory variables in GEE are only available recently because the GEE method is developed on the basis of quasi-likelihood theory. Maximum likelihood based model selection methods, such as the widely used Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), are not applicable to GEE directly. Pan (2001) proposed a selection method called QIC which can be used to select the best correlation structure and the best subset of explanatory variables. Based on the QIC method, we developed a computing program to calculate the QIC value for a range of different distributions, link functions and correlation structures. This program was written in Stata software. In this article, we introduce this program and demonstrate how to use it to select the most parsimonious model in GEE analyses of longitudinal data through several representative examples.

Habitat suitability for marine fishes using presence-only modelling and multibeam sonar

Improved access to multibeam sonar and underwater video technology is enabling scientists to use spatially-explicit, predictive modelling to improve our understanding of marine ecosystems. With the growing number of modelling approaches available, knowledge of the relative performance of different models in the marine environment is required. Habitat suitability of 5 demersal fish taxa in Discovery Bay, south-east Australia, were modelled using 10 presence-only algorithms: BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, ENFA (distance geometric mean [GM], distance harmonic mean [HM], median [M], area-adjusted median [Ma], median + extremum [Me], area-adjusted median + extremum [Mae] and minimum distance [Min]), and MAXENT. Model performance was assessed using kappa and area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operator characteristic. The influence of spatial range (area of occupancy) and environmental niches (marginality and tolerance) on modelling performance were also tested. MAXENT generally performed best, followed by ENFA-GM and -HM, DOMAIN, BIOCLIM, ENFA-M, -Min, -Ma, -Mae and -Me algorithms. Fish with clearly definable niches (i.e. high marginality) were most accurately modelled. Generally, Euclidean distance to nearest reef, HSI-b (backscatter), rugosity and maximum curvature were the most important variables in determining suitable habitat for the 5 demersal fish taxa investigated. This comparative study encourages ongoing use of presence-only approaches, particularly MAXENT, in modelling suitable habitat for demersal marine fishes.

On the effective mechanical properties of fluid-saturated composites : a homogenization approach

Composites containing saturated fluid are widely distributed in nature, such as saturated rocks, colloidal materials and biological cells. In the study to determine effective mechanical properties of fluid-saturated composites, a micromechanical model and a multi-scale homogenization-based model are developed. In the micromechanical model the internal fluid pressure is generated by applying eigenstrains in the domain of the fluid phase and the explicit expressions of effective bulk modulus and shear modulus are obtained. Meanwhile a multi-scale homogenization theory is employed to develop the homogenization-based model on determination of effective properties at the small scale in a unit cell level. Applying the two proposed approaches, the effects of the internal pressure of hydrostatic fluid on effective properties are further investigated.

Climate change impacts and adaptation in Bangladesh : an agent-based approach

Bangladesh exemplifies the complex challenges facing densely populated coastal regions. The
pressures on the country are immense: around 145 million people live within an area of just 145,000 sq-km at
the confluence of three major river systems: the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. While progress
has been made, poverty remains widespread, with around 39% of children under five malnourished. Most of
its land-mass lies below 10m above sea level with considerable areas at sea level, leading to frequent and
prolonged flooding during the monsoons. Sea level rise is leading to more flooding as storm surges rise off
higher sea levels, pushing further inland. Higher sea levels also result in salt-water intrusion into freshwater
coastal aquifers and estuaries, contaminating drinking water and farmland. Warmer ocean waters are also
expected to lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical storms.
Bangladesh depends on the South Asian summer monsoon for most of its rainfall which is expected to
increase, leading to more flooding. Climate scientists are also concerned about the stability of monsoon and
the potential for it to undergo a nonlinear phase shift to a drier regime. Bangladesh faces an additional
hydrological challenge in that the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers both rise in the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau
region, where glaciers are melting rapidly. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
concluded that rapid melting is expected to increase river flows until around the late-2030s, by which time
the glaciers are expected to have shrunk from their 1995 extent of 500,000 sq-km to an expected 100,000 sqkm.
After the 2030s, river flows could drop dramatically, turning the great glacier-fed rivers of Asia into
seasonal monsoon-fed rivers. The IPCC concluded that as a result, water shortages in Asia could affect more
than a billion people by the 2050s. Over the same period, crop yields are expected to decline by up to 30% in
South Asia due to a combination of drought and crop heat stress. Bangladesh is therefore likely to face
substantial challenges in the coming decades.
In order to adequately understand the complex, dynamic, spatial and nonlinear challenges facing Bangladesh,
an integrated model of the system is required. An agent-based model (ABM) permits the dynamic
interactions of the economic, social, political, geographic, environmental and epidemiological dimensions of
climate change impacts and adaptation policies to be integrated via a modular approach. Integrating these
dimensions, including nonlinear threshold events such as mass migrations, or the outbreak of conflicts or
epidemics, is possible to a far greater degree with an ABM than with most other approaches.
We are developing a prototype ABM, implemented in Netlogo, to examine the dynamic impacts on poverty,
migration, mortality and conflict from climate change in Bangladesh from 2001 to 2100. The model employs
GIS and sub-district level census and economic data and a coarse-graining methodology to allow model
statistics to be generated on a national scale from local dynamic interactions. This approach allows a more
realistic treatment of distributed spatial events and heterogeneity across the country. The aim is not to
generate precise predictions of Bangladesh’s evolution, but to develop a framework that can be used for
integrated scenario exploration. This paper represents an initial report on progress on this project. So far the
prototype model has demonstrated the desirability and feasibility of integrating the different dimensions of
the complex adaptive system and, once completed, is intended to be used as the basis for a more detailed
policy-oriented model.

Intake rates, stochasticity, or onset of spring : what aspects of food availability affect spring migration patterns in Pink-footed Geese Anser brachyrhynchus?

Long-distance bird migration consists of several flight episodes interrupted by a series of resting and refuelling periods on stopover sites. We assessed the role of food availability as the determinant of staging decisions focusing on the following three aspects of food availability: intake rates, stochasticity in intake rates and onset of spring. Using stochastic dynamic modelling, we investigated their impact on staging times and expected fitness. Subsequently, we compared relations in the use of the stopover sites as predicted by the model with empirical data of the Svalbard-breeding population of Pink-footed Goose Anser brachyrhynchus collected in the period 1990–2002. Our results indicate that, for the case of Pink-footed Geese, spring phenology determines a major part of the migration schedule. In contrast to our expectations, intake rates were generally only of minor importance; however, when approaching the breeding grounds their significance increased. Expected fitness at arrival on the breeding grounds showed that the geese can compensate for changes in a broad range of food availability and also cope with varying degrees of stochasticity. However, declining intake rates at the last stopover site or very late onsets of spring clearly decreased fitness. As predicted by the model, the use of stopover sites was interdependent – from empirical data we derived negative relationships between the staging durations of subsequent sites. These results lend credit to an integrated spatially explicit approach focussing on multiple stopover site characteristics when attempting to improve our understanding of bird migration.

3D particle-based cell modelling for haptic microrobotic cell injection

Introducing haptic interface to conduct microrobotic intracellular injection has many beneficial implications. In particular, the haptic device provides force feedback to the bio-operator's hand. This paper introduces a 3D particle-based model to simulate the deformation of the cell membrane and corresponding cellular forces during microrobotic cell injection. The model is based on the kinematic and dynamic of spring – damper multi particle joints considering visco-elastic fluidic properties. It simulates the indentation force feedback as well as cell visual deformation during the microinjection. The model is verified using experimental data of zebrafish embryo microinjection. The results demonstrate that the developed cell model is capable of estimating zebrafish embryo deformation and force feedback accurately.

Comparing towed and baited underwater video techniques for assessing temperate marine fishes

Accurate estimates of fish species occurrence are important to any species’ assessments and distribution model. With increasing emphasis on nondestructive sampling, underwater video techniques are commonly used without a thorough understanding of their advantages and disadvantages. This study compared data collected from baited remote underwater stereo-video systems (stereo BRUVS) and towed-video systems to determine; (1) the differences between these video techniques in terms of fish assemblages, functional groups (i.e. pelagic carnivore, epibenthic carnivore/omnivore or herbivore) and observability (i.e. conspicuous or cryptic), and (2) what impact do these two techniques have on the interpretation of spatially-explicit, predictive models. We found stereo BRUVS and towedvideo techniques recorded very different assemblages, functional groups and observability categories across structurally complex benthic biological habitats (i.e. macroalgae dominated habitats). However, as the habitat complexity became less (e.g. seagrass and areas with no visible macro-biota) both techniques appeared to provide similar fish assemblage information. We also found considerable differences in the predicted extents of habitat suitability between the two video techniques.

Strong population genetic structure and its management implications in the mud carp Cirrhinus molitorella, an indigenous freshwater species subject to an aquaculture and culture-based fishery

This study investigated population genetic structure and diversity of mud carp Cirrhinus molitorella, a species widely used in aquaculture and culture-based fisheries in China and Mekong River riparian countries. Seven newly developed and one published microsatellite DNA markers were used to analyse samples from six wild locations, four hatchery broodstocks and one farmed site from the Mekong, Red and Pearl Rivers. Significant genetic structure was detected in C. molitorella, with isolation-by-distance being a strong force in the Mekong. Pair-wise F_ST, Fisher's exact tests for population differentiation, permutation tests and individual-based structure analysis all support the recognition of a sample originating from Toul Krasaing Lake (Cambodia) and one between Kratie and Stung Treng (Cambodia) as distinct from the remainder of the sampled range. Samples from the main upper Mekong and the Nam Khan River were significantly differentiated, but on a time scale inferred to be short (i.e. by genetic drift, not sufficient for evolution of new microsatellite alleles). The Mekong stock of C. molitorella was strongly differentiated from those from the Red and Pearl Rivers, inferred to be on an evolutionary time scale. Finer-scale sampling is warranted to further improve the understanding of genetic interactions among fish from the Mekong and its tributaries. Detailed studies on the ecology of C. molitorella (e.g. migration pathways and preferred spawning habitats) would provide useful information to explain the patterns of genetic structure detected here, and deepen insights about evolutionary distinctiveness of the population units.

Tuberculosis associated with household crowding in a developed country

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains an important infectious disease in New Zealand (NZ) and globally, but risk factors for transmission are still poorly understood. This research aimed to identify whether household crowding contributes to TB transmission in NZ.

Methods: This ecological study used TB surveillance and census data to calculate TB incidence rates by census area unit (CAU). Census data were used to determine CAU characteristics including proportion of household crowding (a bedroom deficit of one or more), proportion of population who are migrants born in high-TB-incidence countries, median household income, and deprivation level. A negative binomial regression model was used to estimate the association between TB incidence and household crowding.

Results: The analysis included 1898 notified TB cases for the 2000–4 period. Univariate analysis showed TB incidence at the CAU level was associated with household crowding, for the total population and for all ethnic and age groups. After adjusting for the covariates of household income, existing TB burden, and proportion of migrants from high-TB-incidence countries, multivariate analysis showed statistically significant associations between TB incidence and household crowding. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) was 1.05 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.08) in the total population and 1.08 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.12) for NZ-born people <40 years.

Conclusion: At the CAU level, TB incidence in NZ is associated with household crowding. An individual-based study (e.g. case–control) in recently infected cases (detected by molecular epidemiology techniques) is suggested to complement these findings. Reducing or eliminating household crowding could decrease TB incidence in NZ and globally.

The impact of divergent historical and cultural factors on convergence in global communication practice

Communication practice is increasingly converging around globally consistent approaches and techniques shaped by both globalisation and globalising communications technologies. However, this paper argues, national and regional practice histories and cultural characteristics have shaped, and continue to shape, practice in individual markets. The paper analyses the extent of that these divergent histories and cultures have shaped the structure and practices of the public relations industry in Australia and other countries. The paper challenges the common assumptions about public relations development and industry practice having developed from a predominantly US-based model progressively disseminated globally. It traces the history of public relations in Australia, counter-pointing its distinctive origins, to the US-origin thesis. It also examines the impact of demography and diverse national culture on industry shape and practice, comparing the Australian industry to that of other industries around the world. It uses mini-case studies of campaigns in specific countries to assess the extent to which they are culturally-bound by historical and cultural differences and the extent to which they are capable of being transferred or adapted to individual markets. For instance, assumptions about globally-consistent brand identities are contradicted by McDonalds’ branding practices in markets such as Canada and Japan. The paper also discusses how emerging market PR industries are being shaped by distinctive and divergent cultures and development paths and may create new structural and practice models as the emerging economies becoming dominant internationally. The authors suggest that history and cultural diversity continue, and will continue to, shape national and regional practices.

Investigation of process dynamics and control of polystyrene batch reactor using hybrid model

The effects of operating conditions such as initiator and monomer concentration as well as reactor temperature of polymerization reactors are studied in this work. A recently developed hybrid model for polystyrene batch reactor is utilized in simulation study. The simulation results reveal the sensitivity of polymer properties and monomer conversion to variation of process operating conditions. In the second phase of this study, the optimization problem involving minimum time optimal temperature policy is considered for control study. An advanced neural network-based model predictive controller (NN-MPC) is designed and tested online. The experimental studies reveal that the developed controller is able to track the optimal setpoint with a minor oscillation and overshoot.

Formulation and simulation of a 3D mechanical model of embryos for microinjection

The understanding of cell manipulation, for example in microinjection, requires an accurate model of the cells. Motivated by this important requirement, a 3D particlebased mechanical model is derived for simulating the deformation of the fish egg membrane and the corresponding cellular forces during microrobotic cell injection. The model is formulated based on the kinematic and dynamic of spring- damper configuration with multi-particle joints considering the visco-elastic fluidic properties. It simulates the indentation force feedback as well as cell visual deformation during microinjection. A preliminary simulation study is conducted with different parameter configurations. The results indicate that the proposed particle-based model is able to provide similar deformation profiles as observed from a real microinjection experiment of the zebrafish embryo published in the literature. As a generic modelling approach is adopted, the proposed model also has the potential in applications with different types of manipulation such as micropipette cell aspiration.

The impact of divergent historical and cultural factors on convergence in global communication practice

Communication practice is increasingly converging around globally consistent approaches and techniques shaped by both globalisation and globalising communications technologies. However, this paper argues, national and regional practice histories and cultural characteristics have shaped, and continue to shape, practice in individual markets. The paper analyses the extent of that these divergent histories and cultures have shaped the structure and practices of the public relations industry in Australia and other countries. The paper challenges the common assumptions about public relations development and industry practice having developed from a predominantly US-based model progressively disseminated globally. It traces the history of public relations in Australia, counterpointing its distinctive origins, to the US-origin thesis. It also examines the impact of demography and diverse national culture on industry shape and practice, comparing the Australian industry to that of other industries around the world. It uses mini-case studies of campaigns in specific countries to assess the extent to which they are culturally bound by historical and cultural differences and the extent to which they are capable of being transferred or adapted to individual markets. For instance, assumptions about globally consistent brand identities are contradicted by McDonald’s’ branding practices in markets such as Canada and Japan. The paper also discusses how emerging market PR industries are being shaped by distinctive and divergent cultures and development paths and may create new structural and practice models as the emerging economies becoming dominant internationally. The authors suggest that history and cultural diversity continue, and will continue to, shape national and regional practices.