A comparison of Australian rural and metropolitan cardiovascular risk and mortality: the Greater Green Triangle and North West Adelaide population surveys

Objectives:
Cardiovascular (CVD) mortality disparities between rural/regional and urban-dwelling residents of Australia are persistent. Unavailability of biomedical CVD risk factor data has, until now, limited efforts to understand the causes of the disparity. This study aimed to further investigate such disparities.

The impact of a team-based intervention on the lifestyle risk factor management practices of community nurses: outcomes of the community nursing SNAP trial

Background
Lifestyle risk factors like smoking, nutrition, alcohol consumption, and physical inactivity (SNAP) are the main behavioural risk factors for chronic disease. Primary health care is an appropriate setting to address these risk factors in individuals. Generalist community health nurses (GCHNs) are uniquely placed to provide lifestyle interventions as they see clients in their homes over a period of time. The aim of the paper is to examine the impact of a service-level intervention on the risk factor management practices of GCHNs.

Methods
The trial used a quasi-experimental design involving four generalist community nursing services in NSW, Australia. The services were randomly allocated to either an intervention group or control group. Nurses in the intervention group were provided with training and support in the provision of brief lifestyle assessments and interventions. The control group provided usual care. A sample of 129 GCHNs completed surveys at baseline, 6 and 12 months to examine changes in their practices and levels of confidence related to the management of SNAP risk factors. Six semi-structured interviews and four focus groups were conducted among the intervention group to explore the feasibility of incorporating the intervention into everyday practice.

Results
Nurses in the intervention group became more confident in assessment and intervention over the three time points compared to their control group peers. Nurses in the intervention group reported assessing physical activity, weight and nutrition more frequently, as well as providing more brief interventions for physical activity, weight management and smoking cessation. There was little change in referral rates except for an improvement in weight management related referrals. Nurses’ perception of the importance of ‘client and system-related’ barriers to risk factor management diminished over time.

Conclusions
This study shows that the intervention was associated with positive changes in self-reported lifestyle risk factor management practices of GCHNs. Barriers to referral remained. The service model needs to be adapted to sustain these changes and enhance referral.

Investigating the predictive ability of gait speed and quadriceps strength for incident falls in community-dwelling older women at high risk of fracture

Gait speed is a recommended geriatric assessment of physical performance, but may not be regularly examined in clinical settings. We aimed to investigate whether quadriceps strength tests demonstrate similar predictive ability for incident falls as gait speed in older women. We investigated 135 female volunteers aged mean±SD 76.7±5.0 years (range 70-92) at high risk of fracture. Participants completed gait speed assessments using the GAITRite Electronic Walkway System, and quadriceps strength assessments using a hand-held dynamometer (HHD). Participants reported incident falls monthly for 3.7±1.2 years. N=99 (73%) participants fell 355 times during the follow-up period (mean fall rate 83 per 100 person years). We observed a reduced odds ratio for multiple falls (0.83, 95% CI 0.70-0.98) and a reduced hazard ratio for time to first fall (0.90, 95% CI 0.83-0.98), according to quadriceps strength. There was also a significantly shorter time to first fall for those with low quadriceps strength (<7.0 kg; lowest tertile) compared with those with normal quadriceps strength (estimated means [95% CI] 1.54 [1.02, 2.06] vs. 2.23 [1.82, 2.64] years; P=0.019), but not for those with low (<1.0 m/s) vs. normal gait speed (P=0.15). Quadriceps strength is a significant predictor of incident falls over three years amongst community-dwelling older women at high risk of fracture. Quadriceps strength tests may be an acceptable alternative to gait speed for geriatric assessments of falls risk.

Predicting risk of suicide attempt using history of physical illnesses from electronic medical records

BACKGROUND: Although physical illnesses, routinely documented in electronic medical records (EMR), have been found to be a contributing factor to suicides, no automated systems use this information to predict suicide risk.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of physical illnesses on suicide risk, and develop a predictive model that captures this relationship using EMR data.

METHODS: We used history of physical illnesses (except chapter V: Mental and behavioral disorders) from EMR data over different time-periods to build a lookup table that contains the probability of suicide risk for each chapter of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes. The lookup table was then used to predict the probability of suicide risk for any new assessment. Based on the different lengths of history of physical illnesses, we developed six different models to predict suicide risk. We tested the performance of developed models to predict 90-day risk using historical data over differing time-periods ranging from 3 to 48 months. A total of 16,858 assessments from 7399 mental health patients with at least one risk assessment was used for the validation of the developed model. The performance was measured using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS: The best predictive results were derived (AUC=0.71) using combined data across all time-periods, which significantly outperformed the clinical baseline derived from routine risk assessment (AUC=0.56). The proposed approach thus shows potential to be incorporated in the broader risk assessment processes used by clinicians.

CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a novel approach to exploit the history of physical illnesses extracted from EMR (ICD-10 codes without chapter V-mental and behavioral disorders) to predict suicide risk, and this model outperforms existing clinical assessments of suicide risk.