Measuring underreporting and under-ascertainment in infectious disease datasets: a comparison of methods

 Background: Efficient and reliable surveillance and notification systems are vital for monitoring public health and disease outbreaks. However, most surveillance and notification systems are affected by a degree of underestimation (UE) and therefore uncertainty surrounds the 'true' incidence of disease affecting morbidity and mortality rates. Surveillance systems fail to capture cases at two distinct levels of the surveillance pyramid: from the community since not all cases seek healthcare (under-ascertainment), and at the healthcare-level, representing a failure to adequately report symptomatic cases that have sought medical advice (underreporting). There are several methods to estimate the extent of under-ascertainment and underreporting. Methods. Within the context of the ECDC-funded Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE)-project, an extensive literature review was conducted to identify studies that estimate ascertainment or reporting rates for salmonellosis and campylobacteriosis in European Union Member States (MS) plus European Free Trade Area (EFTA) countries Iceland, Norway and Switzerland and four other OECD countries (USA, Canada, Australia and Japan). Multiplication factors (MFs), a measure of the magnitude of underestimation, were taken directly from the literature or derived (where the proportion of underestimated, under-ascertained, or underreported cases was known) and compared for the two pathogens. Results: MFs varied between and within diseases and countries, representing a need to carefully select the most appropriate MFs and methods for calculating them. The most appropriate MFs are often disease-, country-, age-, and sex-specific. Conclusions: When routine data are used to make decisions on resource allocation or to estimate epidemiological parameters in populations, it becomes important to understand when, where and to what extent these data represent the true picture of disease, and in some instances (such as priority setting) it is necessary to adjust for underestimation. MFs can be used to adjust notification and surveillance data to provide more realistic estimates of incidence. © 2014 Gibbons et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Protocol for a randomised controlled trial of a web-based healthy relationship tool and safety decision aid for women experiencing domestic violence (I-DECIDE)

BACKGROUND: Domestic violence is a serious problem affecting the health and wellbeing of women globally. Interventions in health care settings have primarily focused on screening and referral, however, women often may not disclose abuse to health practitioners. The internet offers a confidential space in which women can assess the health of their relationships and make a plan for safety and wellbeing for themselves and their children. This randomised controlled trial is testing the effectiveness of a web-based healthy relationship tool and safety decision aid (I-DECIDE). Based broadly on the IRIS trial in the United States, it has been adapted for the Australian context where it is conducted entirely online and uses the Psychosocial Readiness Model as the basis for the intervention. METHODS/DESIGN: In this two arm, pragmatic randomised controlled trial, women who have experienced abuse or fear of a partner in the previous 6 months will be computer randomised to receive either the I-DECIDE website or a comparator website (basic relationship and safety advice). The intervention includes self-directed reflection exercises on their relationship, danger level, priority setting, and results in an individualised, tailored action plan. Primary self-reported outcomes are: self-efficacy (General Self-Efficacy Scale) immediately after completion, 6 and 12 months post-baseline; and depressive symptoms (Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale, Revised, 6 and 12 months post-baseline). Secondary outcomes include mean number of helpful actions for safety and wellbeing, mean level of fear of partner and cost-effectiveness. DISCUSSION: This fully-automated trial will evaluate a web-based self-information, self-reflection and self-management tool for domestic violence. We hypothesise that the improvement in self-efficacy and mental health will be mediated by increased perceived support and awareness encouraging positive change. If shown to be effective, I-DECIDE could be easily incorporated into the community sector and health care settings, providing an alternative to formal services for women not ready or able to acknowledge abuse and access specialised services. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Trial registered on 15(th) December 2014 with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12614001306606.

A practical guide to the application of the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria

The newly developed IUCN Red List of Ecosystems is part of a growing toolbox for assessing risks to biodiversity, which addresses ecosystems and their functioning. The Red List of Ecosystems standard allows systematic assessment of all freshwater, marine, terrestrial and subterranean ecosystem types in terms of their global risk of collapse. In addition, the Red List of Ecosystems categories and criteria provide a technical base for assessments of ecosystem status at the regional, national, or subnational level. While the Red List of Ecosystems criteria were designed to be widely applicable by scientists and practitioners, guidelines are needed to ensure they are implemented in a standardized manner to reduce epistemic uncertainties and allow robust comparisons among ecosystems and over time. We review the intended application of the Red List of Ecosystems assessment process, summarize 'best-practice' methods for ecosystem assessments and outline approaches to ensure operational rigour of assessments. The Red List of Ecosystems will inform priority setting for ecosystem types worldwide, and strengthen capacity to report on progress towards the Aichi Targets of the Convention on Biological Diversity. When integrated with other IUCN knowledge products, such as the World Database of Protected Areas/Protected Planet, Key Biodiversity Areas and the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, the Red List of Ecosystems will contribute to providing the most complete global measure of the status of biodiversity yet achieved.

Establishing IUCN red list criteria for threatened ecosystems

The potential for conservation of individual species has been greatly advanced by the International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) development of objective, repeatable, and transparent criteria for assessing extinction risk that explicitly separate risk assessment from priority setting. At the IV World Conservation Congress in 2008, the process began to develop and implement comparable global standards for ecosystems. A working group established by the IUCN has begun formulating a system of quantitative categories and criteria, analogous to those used for species, for assigning levels of threat to ecosystems at local, regional, and global levels. A final system will require definitions of ecosystems; quantification of ecosystem status; identification of the stages of degradation and loss of ecosystems; proxy measures of risk (criteria); classification thresholds for these criteria; and standardized methods for performing assessments. The system will need to reflect the degree and rate of change in an ecosystem's extent, composition, structure, and function, and have its conceptual roots in ecological theory and empirical research. On the basis of these requirements and the hypothesis that ecosystem risk is a function of the risk of its component species, we propose a set of four criteria: recent declines in distribution or ecological function, historical total loss in distribution or ecological function, small distribution combined with decline, or very small distribution. Most work has focused on terrestrial ecosystems, but comparable thresholds and criteria for freshwater and marine ecosystems are also needed. These are the first steps in an international consultation process that will lead to a unified proposal to be presented at the next World Conservation Congress in 2012.

Sacrificial girls : a case study of the impact of streaming and setting on gender reform

This article reports on research funded by the Australian Research Council to investigate school responses to gender equity. It addresses the efforts of a disadvantaged school to tackle what they perceived to be gender inequalities, but in the process of constructing a top-set and bottom-set/ stream class they are developing new forms of old inequalities and new forms of inequalities. This research indicates that despite popular assertions that girls’ education has become the priority of schools and education systems, girls are being further disadvantaged through attempts to implement market strategies coupled with gender reform agendas grounded in liberal notions of equity and relying on unsophisticated notions of affirmative action. In addition, this study highlights the extent to which a media-driven debate about boys’ education has influenced the constitution of boys as the ‘new disadvantaged’ with the capacity to determine the nature of gender reform agendas and programmes in schools.

A failed fall prevention study in an acute care setting: lessons from the swamp

Designing and implementing fall intervention studies in acute care settings presents researchers with a number of challenges. To date, there are no fall prevention interventions that have unequivocal empirical support in these settings. Based on the best available evidence a multistrategy fall prevention program was implemented using a pretest–post-test design over a 12-month period. The results indicated no reduction in the fall rate. Contrary to the expected result, the fall rate increased post the implementation of the multistrategy fall prevention program. To assist other researchers understand the contextual and methodological barriers to conducting fall prevention research in acute care settings, this paper discusses the difficulties experienced in this study.

Safety attitudes and beliefs of junior Australian football players

Objectives: To describe the safety attitudes and beliefs of junior (aged 16–18 years) Australian football players.

Setting: Six Victorian Football League Under 18 (VFL U18) clubs in Victoria, Australia.

Methods: Cross sectional survey. Altogether 103 players completed a self report questionnaire about their safety beliefs and perceptions of support when injured, across three contexts in which they played: VFL U18 club, local club, and school.

Results: Although only 6% believed it was safe to play with injuries, 58% were willing to risk doing so. This increased to almost 80% when players perceived that their chances of being selected to play for a senior elite team would be adversely affected if they did not play. There were significant differences in the perceived level of support for injured players and in the ranking of safety as a high priority across the three settings. In general, the VFL U18 clubs were perceived as providing good support for injured players and giving a high priority to safety issues, but local clubs and particularly schools were perceived to address these issues less well.

Conclusions: Junior Australian football players have certain beliefs and perceptions in relation to injury risk that have the potential to increase injuries. These negative beliefs need to be addressed in any comprehensive injury prevention strategy aimed at these players.

Patterns and demographic predictors of 5-year weight change in a multi-ethnic cohort of men and women in Australia

Objective: This study investigated 5-year trends in body weight, overweight and obesity and their association with sociodemographic variables in a large, multi-ethnic community sample of Australian adults.  Design: This prospective population study used baseline and 5-year follow-up data from participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS). Setting: Population study in Melbourne, Australia. Subjects: In total, 12 125 men and 17 674 women aged 35–69 years at baseline. Results: Mean 5-year weight change in this sample was +1.58 (standard deviation (SD) 4.82) kg for men and +2.42 (SD 5.17) kg for women. Younger (35–44 years) men and, in particular, women gained more weight than older adults and were at highest risk of major weight gain ($5 kg) and becoming overweight. Risk of major weight gain and associations between demographic variables and weight change did not vary greatly by ethnicity. Education level showed complex associations with weight outcomes that differed by sex and ethnicity. Multivariate analyses showed that, among men, higher initial body weight was associated with decreased likelihood of major weight gain, whereas among women, those initially overweight or obese were about 20% more likely to experience major weight gain than underweight or healthy weight women. Conclusions: Findings of widespread weight gain across this entire population sample, and particularly among younger women and women who were already overweight, are a cause for alarm. The prevention of weight gain and obesity across the entire population should be an urgent public health priority. Young-to-mid adulthood appears to be a critical time to intervene to prevent future weight gain.

Food cost and availability in a rural setting in Australia

Introduction: The burden of chronic diseases is rapidly increasing worldwide. In  Australia rural populations have a greater burden of disease. Chronic diseases are largely preventable with diet as a key risk factor. With respect to diet-related chronic disease, dietary risk may be due to poor food access, namely, poor availability and/or the high cost of healthy food. It is likely that poor food access is an issue in rural areas. Objective: To assess food access in rural south-west (SW) Victoria, Australia.

Methods: A total of 53 supermarkets and grocery stores in 42 towns participated in a survey of food cost and availability in the rural area of SW Victoria. The survey assessed availability and cost of a Healthy Food Access Basket (HFAB) which was designed to meet the nutritional needs of a family of 6 for 2 weeks.

Results: Seventy-two percent of the eligible shops in SW Victoria were surveyed. The study found that the complete HFAB was significantly more likely to be available in a town with a chain-owned store (p<0.00). The complete HFAB was less likely to be available from an independently owned store in a town with only one grocery shop (p<0.004). The average cost of the HFAB across SW Victoria was AU$380.30 ± $25.10 (mean ± SD). There was a mean range in difference of cost of the HFAB of $36.92. In particular, high variability was found in the cost of fruits and vegetables.

Conclusions: Cost and availability of healthy food may be compromised in rural areas. Implications: Improvements in food access in rural areas could reduce the high burden of disease suffered by rural communities.

Age related motivational segmentation of wine consumption in a hospitality setting

The wine industry is a multi-billion product value category worldwide with a significant part being sales through hospitality service providers. Although wine sales add considerably to the profitability of many restaurants, hotels, bars and other hospitality establishments, few studies have been conducted into wine purchasing behaviour within hospitality settings. This study identifies the factors that influence consumers to purchase wine and attempts to demonstrate how the basic demographic characteristic of age is a useful variable for segmentation purposes. The study reveals that there are six dominant factors that influence wine purchasing behaviour and that significant differences in purchase motivation exist between three age segments, 18 to 25 years, 26 to 34 years and 34+years. The results of this research have significant implications for hospitality operators who, with a basic knowledge of the demographic characteristics of their guests, can develop marketing strategies to maximise the sale of wine and wine products

The relationship between patient blood pathology values and patient falls in an acute-care setting : a retrospective analysis

Few studies have investigated the relationship between patient falls and patient blood pathology values, which can reveal objective information about the health and nutritional status of a patient. It could be that some abnormal values are associated with patients that fall. The objectives of the current study were to determine whether blood pathology values were different in patients who fell compared to patients who did not fall, and whether there was a difference in the type and number of currently documented risk factors for falls found for patients who fell compared to patients who did not fall. A retrospective audit of patient incident reports and medical records was conducted in an acute-care hospital for 220 patients who fell and who did not fall. Faller and non-faller patients were matched by casemix type and length of stay. Findings revealed a significant relationship between patients who fell and the variables of age, confusion status and alkaline phosphatase blood values.

Population health and wellbeing: identifying priority areas for Victorian children

Background
Population health information, collected using soundly-designed methodologies, is essential to inform policy, research, and intervention programs. This study aimed to derive policy-oriented recommendations for the content of a health and wellbeing population survey of children 0–12 years living in Victoria, Australia.

Results
Qualitative interviews were conducted with 54 academic and policy stakeholders, selected to encompass a wide breadth of expertise in areas of public health and inter-sectoral organisations relevant to child health outcomes, including universities, government and non-government agencies across Victoria. These stakeholders were asked to provide advice on strategic priorities for child health information (data) using a structured interview technique. Their comments were summarised and the major themes were extracted. The priority areas of health and wellbeing recommended for regular collection include obesity and its determinants, pregnancy and breastfeeding, oral health, injury, social and emotional health and wellbeing, family environment, community, health service utilisation, illness, and socioeconomic position. Population policy questions for each area were identified.

Conclusion
In contrast to previous population survey programs nationally and internationally, this study sought to extract contemporary policy-oriented domains for inclusion in a strategic program of child health data collection, using a stakeholder consultation process to identify key domains and policy information needs. The outcomes are a rich and relevant set of recommendations which will now be taken forward into a regular statewide child health survey program.