SAS macros for point and interval estimation of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for non-proportional and proportional hazards Weibull models

Aims and objectives  For prediction of risk of cardiovascular end points using survival models the proportional hazards assumption is often not met. Thus, non-proportional hazards models are more appropriate for developing risk prediction equations in such situations. However, computer program for evaluating the prediction performance of such models has been rarely addressed. We therefore developed SAS macro programs for evaluating the discriminative ability of a non-proportional hazards Weibull model developed by Anderson (1991) and that of a proportional hazards Weibull model using the area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Method  Two SAS macro programs for non-proportional hazards Weibull model using Proc NLIN and Proc NLP respectively and model validation using area under ROC curve (with its confidence limits) were written with SAS IML language. A similar SAS macro for proportional hazards Weibull model was also written.

Results  The computer program was applied to data on coronary heart disease incidence for a Framingham population cohort. The five risk factors considered were current smoking, age, blood pressure, cholesterol and obesity. The predictive ability of the non-proportional hazard Weibull model was slightly higher than that of its proportional hazard counterpart. An advantage of SAS Proc NLP in terms of the example provided here is that it provides significance level for the parameter estimates whereas Proc NLIN does not.

Conclusion  The program is very useful for evaluating the predictive performance of non-proportional and proportional hazards Weibull models.

The intriguing and forgotten international exchanges in the master plan for the reconstruction of Skopje

At 5:17AM on Friday 26 July 1963, Skopje was struck by an earthquake, which in 17 seconds destroyed approximately 75% of the urban fabric, and changed the course of its history from an unknown town to a city of international focus. Immediate actions and a formidable level of local organization; an unprecedented pouring in of aid from the other Yugoslav republics and from individual nations and organisations; and a monumental role for the United Nations in the co-ordination of international , architectural and urban planning expertise for the city's large-scale and long-term reconstruction, laid the foundation for what has been called 'a precise Marxist revolutionary situation' .1 The detail of the paper concerns Stage 4, Replanning 1963 to 1966 of the planning strategy that was organised into five stages, and has a major interest in the invited United Nations (UN) international competition ~o redesign approximately two square kilometres of the city centre.2 Action is associated with activity as productivity, but in Skopje added to this were symbolic human acts and heroic action such that its inhabitants regained their city and importantly a new position as city in the world.

Inflation dynamics and New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Australia

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) is a standard model in the analysis of inflation dynamics. For the Australian economy, this study establishes the empirical evidence that the NKPC can explain the process of inflation dynamics and the price-setting mechanism. The trade shocks, such as the real exchange rate and the terms of trade, play an important role in inflation dynamics.

Kenzo Tange's forgotten master plan for the reconstruction of Skopje

After the 1963 earthquake, which is said to have destroyed seventy-five per cent of the urban fabric, Skopje, capital city of the Republic of Macedonia (then in Yugoslavia) became a centre of architectural activity. The United Nations held a limited competition for the reconstruction of Skopje, inviting four foreign firms and four Yugoslavian firms to participate. Tange's submission received sixty per cent of the first prize, co-operating with Yugoslav architects to develop the design idea. What can this project tell us about modernism re-inscribed in Japan, and the kinds of internationalism that the United Nations constructed? Japanese Metabolism, of which Tange was a pioneer, heralded Japan as a new centre for innovation in architecture; a new nationalism re-oriented the suffering after Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Tange developed and realised in Skopje the striking planning ideas he began in his Tokyo Bay proposal. This article examines Tange's master plan for Skopje. It argues that his key elements, the City Wall and the City Gate, exemplify Tange's drive for a new vision in the context of destruction, and that these remain definitive elements today even in the context of a messy transition from a communist to a capitalist society.

Internationalisation of vocational education and training: an adapting curve for teachers and learners

Competency-based training and training packages are mandatory for Australian vocational education and training (VET). VET qualifications are designed to provide learners with skills, knowledge, and attributes required for Australian workplaces. Yet, toward the end of December 2011, there were 171,237 international student enrolments in the Australian vocational education sector.

VET currently ranks second behind the university sector by volume of international student enrolments in Australia. The flow of international students into Australian vocational education, their diverse learning characteristics, and their different acquired values have created new challenges as well as possibilities for teachers to transform their pedagogic practices and contribute to reshaping the pedagogy landscape in vocational education.

Drawing on interviews with 50 teachers from VET institutes in three states of Australia, this article discusses the emergence of international vocational education pedagogy that enables international students and indeed all learners to develop necessary skills, knowledge, and attributes in response to the new demands of the changing workplace context and global skills and knowledge mobility.

This article addresses a number of important issues concerning the interrelationship of international pedagogy and learner-centered education, notions of productive and inclusive pedagogies, transnational skills mobility, cultural diversity, and internationalization within the context of the Australian VET sector. Finally, the significance of these issues to educational providers and teachers across different educational levels and national contexts is discussed.