Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): Is It a Curse or a Blessing for the Australian Home Loan Market? A Natural Experiment

The Australian home loan market has seen a significant and persistent boom over more than two decades. Theextant literature exploring the underlying factors explaining this boom has predominantly looked at thedemand side rather than the supply side. In this paper, we look at a major supply-side issue, the introductionof mortgage-backed securities and its likely impact on the home loan market. In doing so, we have developeda mathematical model that theorises this likely relationship. Our mathematical model predicts possibleexistence of an unstable equilibrium in the home loan market in the presence of mortgage-backed securities.We have subsequently backed up our theoretical exercise with sound empirical evidence acquired andanalysed as a natural experiment in the Australian scenario using quarterly market data on home loans andmortgage-backed securities data for a 36-year period from 1976 to 2012. Using unknown structural breaktests, we have identified significant breaks around late 1992 to mid-1995, clearly indicating that there weresignificant changes in the housing market due to the introduction of mortgage-backed securities in early1993. We have also performed a stability test confirming that under certain conditions this market canbecome unstable.

No news is not good news: evidence from the intra-day return volatility–volume relationship in Shanghai Stock Exchange

Through this research, we find that the asymmetric volatility phenomenon is reversed in the Shanghai Stock Exchange during bull markets. That is, volatility increases more with good news than with bad news. This evidence is inconsistent with the US markets. Further examination of this phenomenon reveals that the positive impact of good news on volatility is driven by the return-chasing behaviour of investors during bull markets. We also find that volatility increases after stock price declines in bear markets. After controlling for liquidity shifts, we observe similar patterns in volatility in both bull and bear markets. We posit that institutional and behavioural factors are the major driving forces of observed volatility patterns in the Chinese stock market.

Hierarchical analysis of avian re-nesting behavior: mean, across-individual, and intra-individual responses

© 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Anti-predator behavior is a key aspect of life history evolution, usually studied at the population (mean), or across-individual levels. However individuals can also differ in their intra-individual (residual) variation, but to our knowledge, this has only been studied once before in free-living animals. Here we studied the distances moved and changes in nest height and concealment between successive nesting attempts of marked pairs of grey fantails (Rhipidura albiscapa) in relation to nest fate, across the breeding season. We predicted that females (gender that decides where the nest is placed) should on average show adaptive behavioral responses to the experience of prior predation risk such that after an unsuccessful nesting attempt, replacement nests should be further away, higher from the ground, and more concealed compared with replacement nests after successful nesting attempts. We found that, on average, females moved greater distances to re-nest after unsuccessful nesting attempts (abandoned or depredated) in contrast to after a successful attempt, suggesting that re-nesting decisions are sensitive to risk. We found no consistent across-individual differences in distances moved, heights, or concealment. However, females differed by 53-fold (or more) in their intra-individual variability (i.e., predictability) with respect to distances moved and changes in nest height between nesting attempts, indicating that either some systematic variation went unexplained and/or females have inherently different predictability. Ignoring these individual differences in residual variance in our models obscured the effect of nest fate on re-nesting decisions that were evident at the mean level.

The effects of perceived organizational support, perceived supervisor support and intra‐organizational network resources on turnover intentions: A study of Chinese employees in multinational enterprises

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of perceived organizational support (POS), perceived supervisor support (PSS) and intra-organizational network resources on the turnover intentions of the Chinese employees of multinational enterprises. Design/methodology/approach: The study utilized structured equation modeling to analyze survey data from 437 Chinese employees of five multinational enterprises operating in the Chinese service sector. Findings: The study found that POS was positively related to affective organizational commitment, which in turn was negatively related to turnover intentions. A direct relationship was revealed between PSS and turnover intentions, as well as a mediated relationship through POS. In contrast, the relationship between intra-organizational network resources and turnover intentions was fully mediated through POS. Research limitations/implications: The cross sectional design is a limitation of the study. Another limitation regards the generalisability of the findings outside the specific research context. Future research should be extended to different geographical and organizational settings. Practical implications: In order to promote employee retention, multinational enterprises operating in China could start by carefully targeting visible support on offer to their employees. Improving supervisor support is a relatively inexpensive and practical measure compared to the costly alternatives such as improving employee compensation, training and career development. Organizations should also consider improving co-worker support schemes in the workplace which enable individuals to build up their network resources. Originality/value: The study provided evidence for both a direct relationship between PSS and turnover intentions and a mediated one via POS, confirming the generalisability of previous findings to the Chinese context. In addition it made an original contribution by establishing that POS fully, rather than partially mediated the relationship between intra-organizational network resources and turnover intentions. This suggests that Chinese employees attribute instrumental and expressive support from others in the organization as coming from the organization itself.

Herding behaviour in the Australian loan market and its impact on bank loan quality

We examine the effect of herding behaviour on the credit quality of bank loans in Australia. We find that bank herding varies with different types of loans. It tends to be more prevalent in owner-occupied housing loans and credit cards than other types of loans. During the global financial crisis period, herding in owner-occupied housing loans was most pronounced due to the flight-to-quality phenomenon in the housing sector. Furthermore, we find that the big four banks tend to herd more than smaller and regional banks. Bank herding behaviour is countercyclical, as it is negatively related to real GDP growth and the cost of funding but is positively related to market risk. Regulatory capital requirements may also encourage herding as banks are required to hold less risk-weighted capital for residential loans. Most importantly, bank herding is related to higher impaired assets and therefore lower loan quality. Our findings may have implications for policymakers and bank regulators.