Do retail option traders know better about market volatility?

This paper examines the informational content and predictive power of implied volatility over different forecasting horizons in a sample of European covered warrants traded in the Hong Kong and Singapore markets. The empirical results show that time-series-based volatility forecasts outperform implied volatility forecast as predictors of future volatility. The finding also suggests that implied volatility is biased and informationally inefficient and that covered warrants are typically overvalued. The results are attributable to the fact that, in Hong Kong and Singapore, the covered warrants markets are dominated by retail investors who tend to use covered warrants' leverage to speculate on the price movements of the underlying assets rather than to express their view on volatility. Arbitrage is not possible in the markets as short-selling of covered warrants is prohibited.

Estimating exchange rate responsiveness to shocks

The goal of this paper is to examine the importance of permanent and transitory shocks using a more efficient trend-cycle decomposition of the real exchange rate series. Our main contribution is that in measuring the impact of shocks, we not only impose common trend restrictions but also common cycle restrictions. We later confirm, through a post sample forecasting exercise, the efficiency gains from imposing common cycle restrictions. Our results indicate that permanent shocks are responsible for the bulk of the real exchange rate variations for Japan, Italy, Germany, France, and the UK vis-à-vis the US dollar over short horizons. For Canada, however, transitory shocks are dominant over the short horizon. In sum, while for Japan, France, and Italy, around 15% of the variation in real exchange rate is due to transitory shocks, for Canada, Germany and the UK, over 25% of the variations over the short horizon are due to transitory shocks. Thus, we claim that the role of transitory shocks should not be ignored.

Do permanent shocks explain income levels? a common cycle-common trend analysis of regional income levels for China

In this paper, we analyse per capita income levels of China's three main regions: the western region, the eastern region and the central region using common cycle and common trend tests. Our main contribution is that we impose the common cycle and common trend restrictions in decomposing shocks into permanent and transitory components. We find that: (i) there is evidence for two cointegrating relationships and one common cycle; and (ii) the variance decomposition analysis of shocks provides evidence that over short horizons, permanent shocks play a large role in explaining variations in regional per capita incomes.

Phenomenon of ordinariness in nursing

This phenomenological research aimed to illuminate the nature and effects of ordinariness in nursing and to discover whether the phenomenon enhanced the nursing encounter. The researcher worked as a participant observer with six registered nurses in a Professorial Nursing Unit. Following each interaction, the researcher wrote her impressions in a personal-professional journal and audiotaped conversations with the respective nurses and patients to gain their impressions. Using a theoretical framework of the phenomenological concepts of lived experience, Dasein, Being-in-the-world and fusion of horizons as an underpinning methodology, an initial hermeneutical analysis and interpretation of the impressions generated qualities and activities indicative of the aspects of the phenomenon of ordinariness in nursing. The second phase of the analysis and interpretation sought to illuminate the nature of the phenomenon itself. Eight actualities of the nature of the phenomenon emerged: 'allowingness,' 'straightforwardness,' 'self-likeness,' 'homeliness,' 'favourableness,' 'intuneness,' 'lightheartedness' and 'connectedness.' These actualities were described in relation to the phenomenon of interest. The effects of the phenomenon were the creative potential to enhance the nursing encounter and included many and various effects of facilitation, fair play, familiarity, family, favouring, feelings, fun and friendship. The research found that nurses and patients shared a common sense of humanity, which enhanced the nursing encounter. Within the context of caring, the nurses were ordinary people, perceived as being extraordinarily effective, by the very ways in which their humanness shone through their knowledge and skills, to make their whole being with patients something more than just professional helping. The shared sense of ordinariness between nurses and patients made them as one in then- humanness and created a special place, in which the relative strangeness of the experience of being in a health care setting, could be made familiar and manageable.

Latest Guadalupian brachiopods from the Guadalupian/Lopingian boundary GSSP section at Penglaitan in Laibin, Guangxi, South China and implications for the timing of the pre-Lopingian crisis

A brachiopod fauna comprising nine species in eight genera from three closely spaced stratigraphic horizons of the same stratigraphic section is described for the first time from the Laibin Limestone in the uppermost part of the Maokou Formation in the Guadalupian/Lopingian (G/L) GSSP section at Penglaitan, Guangxi Autonomous Region, South China. The brachiopod assemblages are bracketed between two conodont zones: Jinogondolella xuanhanensis Zone below and Jinogondolella granti Zone above and, therefore, they can be safely assigned to the latest Capitanian in age. However, all but one of the nine brachiopod species from the Laibin Limestone carry strong early Lopingian (Wuchiapingian) aspect. Thus, the discovery of this brachiopod fauna not only suggests that some Lopingian brachiopod species had already appeared in the late Guadalupian (Capitanian); more importantly, it has also highlighted the fact that both the previously noted pre-Lopingian life crisis (or end-Guadalupian or Middle Permian mass extinction) and Lopingian recovery/radiation actually occurred in late Capitanian times, sometime before the G/L chronostratigraphic boundary. So far, the Penglaitan GSSP section provides the highest-resolution disappearance patterns of different fossil groups around the G/L boundary.

An initiative to address the gender imbalance in tertiary IT studies

Gender imbalance in the IT sector is a problem with few females choosing information technology (IT) as a career. This paper describes an initiative conducted in Victoria, Australia, that aimed to expand the career horizons of secondary school girls aged 14 to 18 by showing them the range of career opportunities available in information technology. The event was a two day showcase where industry speakers from a wide variety of areas within the sector spoke about their careers. The event participants - students and their accompanying teachers - were surveyed. Both students and teachers indicated that the Showcase had been a worthwhile event that had made them much more aware of some of the career options available in the IT sector. The most significant finding was that after the event a considerable percentage of the students indicated that they would consider a career in IT, when only about half of those surveyed indicated that they had considered IT beforehand.

Pennsylvanian brachiopods from the Geumcheon-Jangseong formation, Pyeongan supergroup, Taebaeksan Basin, Korea

We provide the first detailed systematic taxonomy and paleoecological investigation of late Paleozoic brachiopod faunas from Korea. Specifically, we focus on the brachiopods from the Geumcheon-Jangseong Formation, the lower part of the Pyeongan Supergroup in the Taebaeksan Basin. The formation yields a variety of marine invertebrate fossils, including brachiopods, molluscs, echinoderms, corals, fusulinids, and conodonts. Diverse brachiopods are described from six siliciclastic horizons of the formation at three localities, including 23 species belonging to 20 genera with two new species: Rhipidomella parva n. sp. and Stenoscisma wooi n. sp. Three brachiopod assemblages of the late Moscovian (Pennsylvanian) age are recognized based on their species compositions and stratigraphic distributions, namely the Choristites, Rhipidomella, and Hustedia assemblages. The brachiopod faunal composition varies within each assemblage as well as between the Assemblages, most likely reflecting local paleoenvironmental and hence paleoecological differences. The Choristites Assemblage includes relatively large brachiopods represented by Derbyia, Choristites, and Stenoscisma and may have inhabited open marine to partly restricted marine environments, whereas the Rhipidomella and Hustedia Assemblages consist of a small number of small-sized brachiopods living in lagoonal environments. The Choristites Assemblage shows a close affinity with Moscovian brachiopod assemblages in the eastern Paleo-Tethys regions, especially the Brachythyrina lata–Choristites yanghukouensis–Echinoconchus elegans Assemblage of North China, whereas the Rhipidomella and Hustedia assemblages both exhibit strong endemism.

Integrated modelling of cost-effective siting and operation of flow-control infrastructure for river ecosystem conservation

Wetland and floodplain ecosystems along many regulated rivers are highly stressed, primarily due to a lack of environmental flows of appropriate magnitude, frequency, duration, and timing to support ecological functions. In the absence of increased environmental flows, the ecological health of river ecosystems can be enhanced by the operation of existing and new flow-control infrastructure (weirs and regulators) to return more natural environmental flow regimes to specific areas. However, determining the optimal investment and operation strategies over time is a complex task due to several factors including the multiple environmental values attached to wetlands, spatial and temporal heterogeneity and dependencies, nonlinearity, and time-dependent decisions. This makes for a very large number of decision variables over a long planning horizon. The focus of this paper is the development of a nonlinear integer programming model that accommodates these complexities. The mathematical objective aims to return the natural flow regime of key components of river ecosystems in terms of flood timing, flood duration, and interflood period. We applied a 2-stage recursive heuristic using tabu search to solve the model and tested it on the entire South Australian River Murray floodplain. We conclude that modern meta-heuristics can be used to solve the very complex nonlinear problems with spatial and temporal dependencies typical of environmental flow allocation in regulated river ecosystems. The model has been used to inform the investment in, and operation of, flow-control infrastructure in the South Australian River Murray.

Expanding horizon (Reykjavík)

Expanding horizons (Reykjavík) (2012-2013) is part of an ongoing series of interactive net-art/installation works that explores the space of the horizon line. Produced with time-lapse photography, animated movements, and playing with perception, this work explores how the vastness of a horizon line can be captured, compressed and re-presented for viewers to align with as an artwork

Prediction intervals for short-term wind farm power generation forecasts

Quantification of uncertainties associated with wind power generation forecasts is essential for optimal management of wind farms and their successful integration into power systems. This paper investigates two neural network-based methods for direct and rapid construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for short-term forecasting of power generation in wind farms. The lower upper bound estimation and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainties associated with forecasts. The effectiveness and efficiency of these two general methods for uncertainty quantification is examined using twenty four month data from a wind farm in Australia. PIs with a confidence level of 90% are constructed for four forecasting horizons: five, ten, fifteen, and thirty minutes. Quantitative measures are applied for objective evaluation and unbiased comparison of PI quality. Demonstrated results indicate that reliable PIs can be constructed in a short time without resorting to complicate computational methods or models. Also quantitative comparison reveals that bootstrap PIs are more suitable for short prediction horizon, and lower upper bound estimation PIs are more appropriate for longer forecasting horizons.

Death and life at the cinematic beach

In this article, I will examine the ways in which the beach and its shoreline is designated as both a mortal and immortal location in cinema. On the one hand, I will suggest that the beach and the shoreline can bring death to those who visit it temporarily or who go there to claim it as a permanent home of their own. The beach creates a set of narrative and aesthetic possibilities for tragic endings, murderous encounters, physical and existential suicides, and spectacular battles between opposing forces to take place. The dangerous beach, then, is locatable as a site that participates in, and helps enact, loss and the death wishes of those who come to contemplate endings, kill or fight on its shifting sands, watery edges and lost horizons. On the other hand, the beach and its shoreline will be understood as a liminal place and space, where regeneration possibilities are enacted. In cinema, death at the beach and its shoreline may not always be the end but a new start beyond the life of the frame. At the beach, within the coastal water, mortality becomes immortality, flesh and body becomes transcendence and spirit, and the death of one self can lead to the (re)birth of another.

Common trends and common cycles in stock markets

In this paper we examine the role of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining variations in the S&P 500, Dow Jones and the NASDAQ. Our modeling technique involves imposing both common trend and common cycle restrictions in extracting the variance decomposition of shocks. We find that: (1) the three stock price indices are characterized by a common trend and common cycle relationship; and (2) permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in stock prices over short horizons.

Return-based style analysis in Australian funds

This study applies return-based style analysis to a sample of Australian managed and superannuation funds, seeking to compare their asset allocation strategies across different style groups. Style analysis is performed using a rolling window estimation technique. As expected, riskier fund classes are more exposed to the riskier benchmarks. Further, differences in institutional and legal settings lead the managers of managed and superannuation funds to invest differently, with the latter employing a more conservative investment strategy despite having longer investment horizons.

Singing in La Voce Della Luna Italian women's choir in Melbourne, Australia

Australia is a country of ongoing migration that embraces diversity, creative expression and cultural activity. Membership of community music groups by older people can enhance life quality, and may provide a space through which cultural and linguistic identity may be shared and celebrated. This qualitative phenomenological case study explores engagement by older members of La Voce Della Luna, an Italian women’s community choir based in Melbourne, Victoria. This article presents one case study from a larger ongoing research project, Well-being and ageing: community, diversity and the arts in Victoria. In this study, data were gathered from documentary sources and by individual and focus group semi-structured interviews in 2013. Employing interpretative phenomenological analysis two significant themes emerged: Social connection and combatting isolation; and New horizons: music-making and social justice. This article describes how active music for older women provides opportunities to learn new skills, new ideas, and create for themselves a resilient community.

Exploring and expressing Italian musical heritage in Melbourne (Australia): a women’s community choir

Australia comprises many cultures, ethnicities, and languages. Belonging to community music groups by older people can enhance quality of life, offer a sense fulfilment, and provide a space through which cultural and linguistic identity may be shared and celebrated. This qualitative case study explores engagement by older members of La Voce Della Luna, an Italian women’s community choir based in Melbourne, Victoria. Older Australians, particularly those from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds frequently rely on voluntary community arts organisations to enhance quality of life. Singing together can provide ways for individuals and communities to express themselves, build community identity, improve quality of life, and celebrate cultural heritage. The members of the choir know that under their inspiring conductor they would learn new songs, new languages and new ways of performing. Their music director saw that the women’s singing together opened new horizons of social engagement and new ideas such as social justice and women’s rights.
This case is from the larger ongoing joint research project (2008 ongoing), Well-being and ageing: community, diversity and the arts in Victoria. Data were gathered from documentary sources and by individual and focus group semi-structured interviews (2013) and were analysed using interpretative phenomenological analysis. Significant themes emerged: social connection and combatting isolation, the maintenance and transmission of cultural heritage, and opening horizons about music making and social justice. This paper demonstrates that active music making makes it possible for older women to learn new skills, new ideas, and create for themselves a resilient community.