Identifying determinants of demand for construction using an econometric approach

Economic variation and its effects on construction demand have received a great deal of attention in construction economics studies. An understanding of future trends in demand for construction could influence investment strategies for a variety of parties, including construction developers, suppliers, property investors and financial institutions. This paper derives the determinants of demand for construction in Australia using an econometric approach to identify and evaluate economic indicators that affect construction demand. The forecasting contribution of different determinants of economic indicators and their categories to the demand for construction are further estimated. The results of this empirical study suggest that changes in consumer’s expectation, income and production, and demography and labour force are closely correlated with the movement of construction demand; and 14 economic indicators are identified as the determinants for construction demand. It was found that the changes in construction price, national income, size of population, unemployment rate, value or export, household expenditure and interest rates play key roles in explaining future variations in the demand for construction in Australia. Some “popular” macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, established house price and bank loans produced inconclusive results.

Should credit default swap issuers be subject to prudential regulation?

Credit default swaps (CDSs) contributed significantly to and exacerbated the recent global financial crisis. As a result of the major role that CDSs played, this paper argues that CDS issuers should be subject to prudential regulation, in order to improve systemic stability in the financial system. Three reasons are put forward for this proposition. First, CDSs are functionally equivalent to insurance and so should be regulated in a consistent manner. Secondly, CDSs perform the economic function of assuming credit risk, and so should be prudentially regulated in the same way as other financial institutions which assume credit risk. Finally, CDSs have the potential to contribute to systemic instability in the financial system, and prudential regulation would reduce this risk.

Bailouts, monitoring, and penalties: an integrated framework of government policies to manage the too-big-to-fail problem

This paper discusses optimal government bailout policy where the costs of systemic failures and moral hazard problems are considered. We find that a three-tiered bailout policy that includes an ex post monitoring and bailout scheme for financial institutions with large systemic impacts ('too big to fail') is optimal. The optimal policy also requires a randomized bailout for medium-impact institutions ('Constructive Ambiguity'), and no bailout for institutions that have only minimal systemic consequences ('too small to save'). However, in a volatile, innovative market environment where individual institutions may know more than the government regulator, monitoring error could contribute to risk taking, leaving the government regulator to always play a 'catch-up' role in revising policy. Moreover, the optimal bailout policy may not be time-consistent: institutions not deemed 'too big to fail' may still have an incentive to take excessive risks and expect to be bailed out in case of insolvency, primarily due to the short-term orientation of the government. Finally, because an institution's systemic cost affects the probability of a bailout, we show that the boundary of an institution may be extended by the government subsidy.

Profit orientation of microfinance institutions and provision of financial capital to business start-ups

This article examines whether the profit orientation of a microfinance institution (MFI) affects its decision to extend loans to business start-ups. Based on information from 198 MFIs in 65 countries, we show that for-profit MFIs are less likely to provide financial capital to business start-ups than their not-for-profit counterparts. This results from the adoption of a dominant ‘commercial’ logic by for-profit MFIs, which motivates them to maximize profit by extending loans to less risky ventures with mature projects. In contrast, a dominant ‘development’ logic motivates not-for-profit MFIs to alleviate poverty through supporting the creation of new ventures. The use of a propensity score matching technique to correct for any potential endogeneity problem provides us with greater confidence that the suggested association is not a spurious correlation.

Financial accounting reforms in the Australian public sector: an episode in institutional thinking

In recent years in Australia, accounting regulations have been developed that require the adoption of commercial accounting and reporting practices by public-sector organisations, including the recognition of cultural, heritage and scientific collections as assets by non-profit cultural organisations. The regulations inappropriately apply traditional accounting concepts of accountability and performance, notwithstanding that the primary objectives of many of the organisations affected are not financial. This study examines how this was able to occur within the ideas outlined in Douglas’s (1986) How Institutions Think. The study provides evidence to demonstrate that the development; promotion, and defense of the detailed accounting regulations were each constrained by institutional thinking and, as a result, only certain questions were asked and many problems and issues associated with the regulations were not addressed. Thus, it seeks to further our understanding of the nature and limits of change in accounting and the role of institutions in promoting and defending changes to accounting practice.

Understanding what microfinance institutions need to address to aid poverty alleviation, social inclusion and human development

Poverty, in its most basic form can be defined as a deprivation of well-being. It is an issue that has been evident in society for centuries and a concern for government policy makers and more recently for non-government organizations (NGOs). In this paper, we consider how management approaches to resolving the dilemma of poverty can be advanced by drawing on two major areas in the development arena associated with poverty, namely, ‘social exclusion’ and ‘the human development paradigm’. We put forward the argument that for groups of people where social disintegration has already occurred, only structural interventions coupled with a social development mechanism will achieve the desired effect. One method for achieving this is through the use of microfinance programs which provide a broad range of financial services to the poor and low-income households as well as to micro-enterprises. This paper contributes to both management practice and theory by developing a theoretical model that microfinance institutions need to do to aid both ‘human development’ and ‘social inclusion’ processes for the socially excluded and poor.

Financial accounting and library collections : the bottom line

The valuation and depreciation of library collections is an increasing challenge in the context of financial accounting requirements. The depreciation implications of major collection management strategies have become of increasing concern to Deakin University library in regard to accrual accounting reporting procedures. Changes to library collections, such as the transition to online journals, are moving the financial value of library collections from capital to operating budgets. Major collection management projects such as weeding print assets can have unexpected implications for depreciation and library budgets. Gratis publication acquisitions can also significantly affect valuation and depreciation. Many other libraries are facing similar challenges and this paper will incorporate a range of experiences and practices.

There appears to be little consistency across libraries in how collections are valued and accounting procedures can differ greatly across institutions. The seemingly arbitrary and often questionable nature of financial policies in relation to library collections can create problems for libraries when used to inform decision making and budgets. Libraries increasingly need to work in partnership with financial managers to ensure the financial reporting requirements do not result in adverse implications for collections and budgets and that the capacity of the library to meet its strategic objectives is not impeded. This paper explores the issues and challenges facing many libraries and outlines some strategies to assist library managers in dealing with this financial conundrum

Client identification and money laundering control : perspectives on the Financial Intelligence Centre Act 38 of 2001

The Financial Intelligence Centre Act 38 of 2001 (FICA) compels certain persons and institutions (defined as "accountable institutions'') to identify and verify the identity of a new client before any transaction may be concluded or any business relationship is established.1 Accountable institutions are listed in schedule ¹ to FICA and include banks, brokers, financial advisers, insurance companies, attorneys and estate agents. This duty to identify new clients came into effect on 30 June 2003. However, FICA also requires a similar procedure to be followed in respect of all current clients. Current clients are those with whom an accountable institution had business relationships on 30 June 2003.² After 30 June 2004 an institution may not conclude a transaction in the course of its business relationship with an unidentified current client, until it has established and verified that client's identity as prescribed. An institution that concludes any transaction in contravention of this prohibition, commits an offence and is liable to a fine not exceeding R10 million or to imprisonment of up to 15 years.³

The majority of accountable institutions and their clients failed to meet the June 2004 current client identification deadline.4 This failure posed serious economic and legal risks. With a few days to spare, the minister of finance granted a partial and temporary exemption in respect of these requirements. This article explores the statutory scheme for identification and re-identification of clients and some of the practical problems that were encountered. The June 2004 exemptions from these requirements are also considered and proposals for law reform are made.

The discussion of the FICA identification scheme necessitates the following brief overview of the international and South African money laundering control framework.

1 s 21(1) of FICA.
2 s 21(2) of FICA. See also s 82(2)(b).
3 s 46(2) of FICA read with s 68(1) of FICA.

Implementing FATF standards in developing countries and financial inclusion : findings and guidelines

This report, emanating from a project commissioned by the FIRST Initiative, considers the impact of the implementation of Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (CFT) controls on financial inclusion in five countries (Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, Pakistan and South Africa). Based on these findings, it develops a set of guidelines to assist the authorities in developing countries to design effective AML/CFT regimes that are compliant with Financial Action Task Force (FATF) standards and supports financial inclusion.
The report and guidelines will be of benefit to countries striving towards the dual goals of protecting their institutions against money laundering and the financing of terrorism as well as extending financial inclusion, irrespective of whether protective measures are being considered in the process of implementing or amending AML/CFT controls to meet the Forty Nine Recommendations of the FATF or in order to meet other, related international requirements, such as those set out in the 2000 United Nations Convention on Transnational Organised Crime or the 2003 United Nations Convention Against Corruption.
The project was supervised and guided by a steering committee consisting of representatives from the FIRST Management Unit, World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID), the Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP), the South African National Treasury, the FinMark Trust and Professor Nikos Passas, an acknowledged world expert on AML/CFT standards and implementation.

Education and training institutions : building social capital for regional development

Education and training institutions from schools through to universities have a vital role in supporting development in regional Australia. The interaction between these institutions and their rural communities influences the social capital of the community and the extent to which the community is a learning community, willing and able to manage change to the community’s advantage.

There are benefits to be had from a collaborative approach to planning and delivering training. This approach is consistent with theories of social capital that emphasise the crucial part played by networks, values and trust in generating superior outcomes for individuals, communities and regions. Research has found that education and training is most effective in building social capital and learning communities were there is attention to customising or targeting education and training provision to local needs. The key to matching provision with local needs, particularly in the more rural and remote areas, is collaboration and partnerships. Partners can be regional organisations, other educational institutions, businesses and government. The factors that enhance the effectiveness of the collaborations and partnerships are the elements of social capital: networks, shared values and trust, and enabling leadership.

Networks are most effective where there were opportunities and structures for interaction, which can be termed interactional infrastructure, that foster networks within the region, and networks that extended outside the region. Interactional infrastructure includes regional forums, committee structures, consultative processes and opportunities for informal discussion addressing the issues of education, training and employment in a community or region. Better outcomes are evident when there is an interactional infrastructure that is resourced with financial, physical and human resources of sufficient quantity and quality. Collaborations provide access to a greater range of external resources through extended external networks. Effective networks and shared visions, values and trust among the partners in a collaboration, are fostered by enabling leaders. Educational institutions are well placed to supply the ‘human infrastructure’ that makes collaborations and partnerships work, including enabling leadership.

Attention to factors associated with the quality of social capital, especially interactional infrastructure including leadership, shared vision and values and networks within and external to the community, can be expected to improve the effectiveness of education and training outcomes. More importantly, a collaborative approach to planning for education and training in rural regions will build the capacity of regions and their constituent communities to develop and change by building social capital resources. Leadership is an important driver of processes that build community and regional capacity and ultimately produce social and economic benefits through regional development. Educational providers in rural regions are well placed to act as enabling leaders.

The money laundering risk posed by low-risk financial products in South Africa : findings and guidelines

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the level and nature of criminal abuse of financial products that are classified as posing a low anti-money laundering/combating of financing of terrorists (AML/CFT) risk in South Africa to determine the effectiveness of the simplified due diligence measures that apply to these products.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper presents empirical research on the views of bank officials and law enforcement officials regarding the criminal abuse of South African financial products that are subject to simplified customer due diligence controls.

Findings – South Africa's AML/CFT laws allow certain deposit-taking institutions and money remitters to implement simplified customer due diligence measures in relation to specific low-risk products that are mainly designed to allow previously unbanked persons to access financial services. The paper finds that the products have been abused by criminals but that the incidence of such abuse and the amounts involved are low. The paper investigates possible weaknesses in the current system that allow limited criminal abuse to occur. It concludes with a number of guidelines that emerge from the study and are of value to regulators that wish to implement a similar system.

Originality/value – The South African AML/CFT scheme in relation to low-risk products is of interest to many international regulators that are grappling with the interplay between effective AML/CFT controls and the impact of strict controls on the ability of socially and economically excluded persons to access appropriate financial services. This paper provides evidence that appropriately designed controls can facilitate financial inclusion while limiting the risk of criminal abuse.

Financial inclusion and financial integrity : aligned incentives?

A large percentage of the population in developing countries saves, remits money or accesses credit using informal financial services. Financial inclusion initiatives aim to expand the reach and attractiveness of formal financial services. Recently, the Financial Action Task Force embraced financial inclusion as complementary to anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing as it enhances financial transparency. Analyzing preliminary data from FinScope surveys on eight African countries we argue that an increase in access to formal services does not automatically imply an immediate and corresponding reduction of usage of informal services, especially as many individuals use informal and formal services in parallel. We consider customer trade-offs regarding the use of formal and informal services especially considering transparency as a potential disincentive to use formal services. The alignment of financial inclusion and integrity will fail where customers are apprehensive about increased transparency.

Financial integration: the role of tradable and non-tradable goods

This paper examines the potential benefits of financial integration focusing on the role of tradable and non-tradable goods. We construct a new country-level index for tradability of output using disaggregate sector level data on output, imports and exports. Cross-country regressions show that for the overall sample, there is a weak positive interaction of tradibility of output and financial integration. When we focus on those countries within a middle range of institutional development, and thus within the middle range of income per capita, for these countries, the experience of integration is tempered significantly by increasing tradability of output. Sector-level regressions confirm the negative and significant interaction of trade and financial integration for this sample of countries.