The unintended consequences of simplifying the sea: making the case for complexity

Many over-exploited marine ecosystems worldwide have lost their natural populations of large predatory finfish and have become dominated by crustaceans and other invertebrates. Controversially, some of these simplified ecosystems have gone on to support highly successful invertebrate fisheries capable of generating more economic value than the fisheries they replaced. Such systems have been compared with those created by modern agriculture on land, in that existing ecosystems have been converted into those that maximize the production of target species. Here, we draw on a number of concepts and case-studies to argue that this is highly risky. In many cases, the loss of large finfish has triggered dramatic ecosystem shifts to states that are both ecologically and economically undesirable, and difficult and expensive to reverse. In addition, we find that those stocks left remaining are unusually prone to collapse from disease, invasion, eutrophication and climate change. We therefore conclude that the transition from multispecies fisheries to simplified invertebrate fisheries is causing a global decline in biodiversity and is threatening global food security, rather than promoting it.

Outcropping reef ledges drive patterns of epibenthic assemblage diversity on cross-shelf habitats

Seafloor habitats on continental shelf margins are increasingly being the subject of worldwide conservation efforts to protect them from human activities due to their biological and economic value. Quantitative data on the epibenthic taxa which contributes to the biodiversity value of these continental shelf margins is vital for the effectiveness of these efforts, especially at the spatial resolution required to effectively manage theseecosystems. We quantified the diversity of morphotype classes on an outcropping reef system characteristic of the continental shelf margin in the Flinders Commonwealth Marine Reserve, southeastern Australia. The system is uniquely characterized by long linear outcropping ledge features in sedimentary bedrock that differ markedly from the surrounding low-profile, sand-inundated reefs. We characterize a reef system harboring rich morphotype classes, with a total of 55 morphotype classes identified from the still images captured by an autonomous underwater vehicle. The morphotype class Cnidaria/Bryzoa/Hydroid matrix dominated the assemblages recorded. Both a and b diversitydeclined sharply with distance from nearest outcropping reef ledge feature. Patterns of the morphotype classes were characterized by (1) morphotype turnover at scales of 5 to 10s m from nearest outcropping reef ledge feature, (2) 30 % of morphotype classes were recordedonly once (i.e. singletons), and (3) generally low levels of abundance (proportion cover) of the component morphotype class. This suggests that the assemblages in this region contain a considerable number of locally rare morphotype classes. This study highlights the particular importance of outcropping reef ledge features in this region, as they provide a refuge against sediment scouring and inundation common on the low profile reef that characterizes this region. As outcropping reef features, they represent a small fraction of overall reef habitat yet contain much of the epibenthic faunal diversity. This study has relevance to conservation planning for continental shelf habitats, as protecting a single, or few, areas of reef is unlikely to accurately represent the geomorphic diversity of cross-shelf habitats and the morphotype diversity that is associated with these features. Equally, whendesigning monitoring programs these spatially-discrete, but biologically rich outcropping reef ledge features should be considered as distinct components in stratified sampling designs.

Economic analysis of a community-based falls prevention program

Objectives: To undertake a cost–benefit analysis of ‘Stay on Your Feet’, a community-based falls prevention program targeting older people at all levels of risk in New South Wales, Australia. Hospital separations were monitored in the intervention region, a control region and for the state of New South Wales as a whole. Changing admission patterns over the intervention period were used to assess the impact of the program.

Methods: Cost–benefit analysis compared the costs of the program with two estimates of savings from avoided hospital admissions. The first compared the cost of hospital admissions in the intervention region to a control region of similar demographics, while the second compared hospital utilization in the intervention region with the state of New South Wales as a whole using falls-related hospital diagnosis related group (DRG) codes.

Results: The total direct costs of the program were estimated at A$781 829. Both methods identified clear overall net benefits ranging from A$5.4 million for avoided hospitalizations alone to A$16.9 million for all avoided direct and indirect costs. The confidence intervals around these estimates were small. The average overall benefit to cost ratio for the intervention as a whole was 20.6:1.

Conclusions: These findings suggest that well-designed community-based interventions targeting falls prevention among older people are highly cost effective and a wise investment for all levels of government. The models used are conservative and are likely to underestimate the real benefit of the intervention, which may have lasted for some time beyond the life of the program.

The economic analysis of prevention in mental health programs

This article introduces the role economics can play in deciding whether programs designed to prevent mental disorders, which carry large disease and economic burdens, are a worthwhile use of limited healthcare resources. Fortunately, preventive interventions for mental disorders exist; however, which interventions should be financed is a common issue facing decision makers, and economic evaluation can provide answers. Unfortunately, existing economic evaluations of preventive interventions have limited applicability to local healthcare contexts. An approach to priority setting largely based on economic techniques— Assessing Cost-Effectiveness (ACE)—has been developed and used in Australia to answer questions regarding the economic credentials of competing interventions. Eleven preventive interventions for mental disorders and suicide, mostly psychological in nature, have been evaluated using this approach, with many meeting the criteria of good value for money. Interventions targeting the prevention of suicide, adult and childhood depression, childhood anxiety, and early psychosis have particular merit.

The impact of court delays on the prosecutor and the defendant: an economic analysis

One important aspect of the economic theory of criminal court delay is to understand how the prosecutor and the defendant make their decisions, and how these respond to changes in trial delay. If both parties jointly maximise expected utility, trial delay may increase or decrease the number of trials, depending upon the decision makers' attitudes towards risk. The main policy implication is that providing the criminal courts with more resources in the form of additional judges and court capacity may lengthen the trial queue rather than shorten it. This is a counterintuitive result contrary to popular belief.

Court delays and the defendant behaviour: an economic analysis

Court delays are consistently criticised as being inimical to social welfare. However, the theoretical basis for this assertion is not well established in the law and economics literature. As a first step, very little is known about the impact of court delay on the defendant's optimal plea decision. If the defendant is rational in the sense of inter temporally optimising, court delay may increase or decrease the probability of a trial depending on the defendant's bail status. Some empirical support for this theoretical proposition is found using data on plea behaviour for a selection of cases heard in NSW Australia.

Analysis of the potential and problems of new institutional economics for third world development

Purpose – The aim of this paper is to provide a critical evaluation of the potential of new institutional economics (NIE) in third world development.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper reviews various theories under NIE from both conceptual and empirical perspectives. It then reviews the various definitions of institutions and show that institutions are essential to overcome problems of information and uncertainty.

Findings – The review finds that weak institutions can undermine development and hence governments in developing countries should strengthen their institutions to provide greater scope for efficient functioning of markets. Where the market does not work owing to high transactions costs, traditional institutions of collective action and group decision making can work and hence need to be recognised.

Research limitations/implications – The major implications of the paper is that in developing countries, a clear understanding of various institutions such as user groups, inter-linked credit markets, rotational irrigation etc. is needed before they are replaced or modified by other institutions. The main limitations of NIE are that there can be capture by elites of various institutional innovations in rural areas, and that it does not explicitly consider income distribution and uncertainty which are glossed over and hence remain areas for future research.

Originality/value – This paper critically reviews the various institutional environments that developing countries face in addressing development issues.

Economic indicator comparisons of international real estate sectors using the OECD input-output database

With its growing share in national economies, the real estate sector has been considered a vital contributor of economic development. Research efforts are needed in order to gain a better comprehension of the national specificities of the real estate sector and to identify its role in economic development. Due to limited comparable data, the economic indicators of real estate sectors are hard to compare between different countries. This paper aims to explore the quantitative interdependence amongst the real estate sector and other industries in developed economies using input-output analysis, and to investigate their significant linkages. Based on the recently published Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) input-output database at constant prices, the analysis focuses on the real estate's escalating role in terms ofshares in gross output, value added and gross national product. With emphasis on the relative role of manufacturing, construction and services inputs, this paper also highlights the strengths of the push and pull of the real estate sector.

Doping in sport: an economic analysis

This paper examines the impact of various regulatory policies on the decision to dope by athletes. The analysis suggests that punishment schemes involving lump-sum fines and bans, which are commonly used to control doping, create biases, and do not achieve their goal of levelling the playing field. Under plausible assumptions, these schemes are more likely to control doping for risk averse athletes compared to risk neutral ones, poorer athletes compared to their wealthier counterparts, and athletes with high earning potentials relative to those with lower potential. A marginal penalty scheme where athletes are fined based on the quantity of dope detected eliminates these biases, and emerges as a superior policy for levelling the playing field.

The value of information in an agency model with moral hazard

I show that the principal and the agent may each prefer that the principal or the agent has imperfect information about the principal's technology in a principal-agent environment with moral hazard. Principals expend considerable resources on data cumulation and analysis. However, such investments in information acquisition are benecial only if the agent will know that the principal is not ignorant or it allows the principal to implement a dierent action. When the principal is perfectly informed about her technology, the agent prefers to be ignorant. In addition, the value of perfect information for the agency is negative if the principal would implement the same action with either possible technology. I also investigate the dierences between ex ante and ex post contracting, and the ramications of the principal being ignorant or potentially ignorant about the technology. Finally, I determine if the principal's utility varies continuously with the degree of informativeness of the agent about the principal's technology. In this vein, I determine whether the agent's uncertainty may make the principal better o if she has the less informative technology.

Does the Triple P-Positive Parenting Program provide value for money?

Objective: The aim of the present study was to investigate the economic case for the implementation of the Triple P-Positive Parenting Program on a population basis in Queensland, Australia, in order to reduce the prevalence of conduct disorder in children. Method: Threshold analysis was undertaken together with a limited cost-effectiveness analysis. Results: The Triple P-Positive Parenting Program is a dominant intervention; that is, it costs less than the amount it saves, until the reduction in prevalence falls below 7% where net costs become positive. Conclusions: Triple P is likely to be a worthwhile use of limited health funds. The economic case is promising, but further research is required to confirm the study results.

Analysis of forest policy using multi-attribute value theory

Contents:
1. Role of multi-criteria decision making in natural resource management /​ Gamini Herath and Tony Prato
2. Analysis of forest policy using multi-attribute value theory /​ Jayanath Ananda and Gamini Herath
3. Comparing Riparian revegetation policy options using the analytic hierarchy process /​ M. E. Qureshi and S. R. Harrison
4. Managing environmental and health risks from a lead and zinc smelter : an application of deliberative multi-criteria evaluation /​ Wendy Proctor, Chris McQuade and Anne Dekker
5. Multiple attribute evaluation of management alternatives for the Missouri River System /​ Tony Prato
6. Multi-criteria decision analysis for integrated watershed management /​ Zeyuan Qiu
7. Fuzzy multiple attribute evaluation of agricultural systems /​ Leonie A. Marks and Elizabeth G. Dunn
8. Multi-criteria decision support for energy supply assessment /​ Bram Noble
9. Seaport development in Vietnam : evaluation using the analytic hierarchy process /​ Tran Phuong Dong and David M. Chapman
10. Valuing wetland aquatic resources using the analytic hierarchy process /​ Premachandra Wattage and Simon Mardle
11. Multiple attribute evaluation for national park management /​ Tony Prato
12. The future of MCDA in natural resource management : some generalizations /​ Gamini Herath and Tony Prato.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of screening for lung cancer with low dose spiral CT (computed tomography) in the Australian setting

Introduction:
Low dose spiral computed tomography (CT) is a sensitive screening tool for lung cancer that is currently being evaluated in both non-randomised studies and randomised controlled trials.
Methods:
We conducted a quantitative decision analysis using a Markov model to determine whether, in the Australian setting, offering spiral CT screening for lung cancer to high risk individuals would be cost-effective compared with current practice. This exploratory analysis was undertaken predominantly from the perspective of the government as third-party funder. In the base-case analysis, the costs and health outcomes (life-years saved and quality-adjusted life years) were calculated in a hypothetical cohort of 10,000 male current smokers for two alternatives: (1) screen for lung cancer with annual CT for 5 years starting at age 60 year and treat those diagnosed with cancer or (2) no screening and treat only those who present with symptomatic cancer.
Results:
For male smokers aged 60–64 years, with an annual incidence of lung cancer of 552 per 100,000, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $57,325 per life-year saved and $105,090 per QALY saved. For females aged 60–64 years with the same annual incidence of lung cancer, the cost-effectiveness ratio was $51,001 per life-year saved and $88,583 per QALY saved. The model was used to examine the relationship between efficacy in terms of the expected reduction in lung cancer mortality at 7 years and cost-effectiveness. In the base-case analysis lung cancer mortality was reduced by 27% and all cause mortality by 2.1%. Changes in the estimated proportion of stage I cancers detected by screening had the greatest impact on the efficacy of the intervention and the cost-effectiveness. The results were also sensitive to assumptions about the test performance characteristics of CT scanning, the proportion of lung cancer cases overdiagnosed by screening, intervention rates for benign disease, the discount rate, the cost of CT, the quality of life in individuals with early stage screen-detected cancer and disutility associated with false positive diagnoses. Given current knowledge and practice, even under favourable assumptions, reductions in lung cancer mortality of less than 20% are unlikely to be cost-effective, using a value of $50,000 per life-year saved as the threshold to define a “cost-effective” intervention.
Conclusion:
The most feasible scenario under which CT screening for lung cancer could be cost-effective would be if very high-risk individuals are targeted and screening is either highly effective or CT screening costs fall substantially.

Ecotourism in Costa Rica: an economic framework of analysis

Costa Rica is a small Central American nation that has gained an international reputation as a leader in environmental conservation. This has formed the base for its highly successful and lucrative small-scale ecotourism industry. However, there are threats from high rates of deforestation and expanding large scale tourism that is trading on strong environmental credentials. This paper sets out an ecologically sustainable economic framework to firstly examine the Costa Rican experience, and then analyse lessons for general policy development of any ecotourism industry. The analysis is conducted from a political economy perspective on the trade-offs between small-scale and large-scale tourism.