Predicting future ecological degradation based on modelled thresholds

Threshold models are becoming important in determining the ecological consequences of our actions within the environment and have a key role in setting bounds on targets used by natural resource managers. We have been using thresholds and related concepts adapted from the multiple stable-states literature to model ecosystem response in the Coorong, the estuary for Australia’s largest river. Our modelling approach is based upon developing a state-and-transition model, with the states defined by the biota and the transitions defined by a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis of the environmental data for the region. Here we explore the behaviour of thresholds within that model. Managers tend to plan for a set of often arbitrarily-derived thresholds in their natural resource management. We attempt to assess how the precision afforded by analyses such as CART translates into ecological outcomes, and explicitly trial several approaches to understanding thresholds and transitions in our model and how they might be relevant for management. We conclude that the most promising approach would be a mixture of further modelling (using past behaviour to predict future degradation) in conjunction with targeted experiments to confirm the results. Our case study of the Coorong is further developed, particularly for the modelling stages of the protocol, to provide recommendations to improve natural resource management strategies that are currently in use.

Top predators as biodiversity regulators : the dingo Canis lupus dingo as a case study

Top-order predators often have positive effects on biological diversity owing to their key functional roles in regulating trophic cascades and other ecological processes. Their loss has been identified as a major factor contributing to the decline of biodiversity in both aquatic and terrestrial systems. Consequently, restoring and maintaining the ecological function of top predators is a critical global imperative. Here we review studies of the ecological effects of the dingo Canis lupus dingo, Australia's largest land predator, using this as a case study to explore the influence of a top predator on biodiversity at a continental scale. The dingo was introduced to Australia by people at least 3500 years ago and has an ambiguous status owing to its brief history on the continent, its adverse impacts on livestock production and its role as an ecosystem architect. A large body of research now indicates that dingoes regulate ecological cascades, particularly in arid Australia, and that the removal of dingoes results in an increase in the abundances and impacts of herbivores and invasive mesopredators, most notably the red fox Vulpes vulpes. The loss of dingoes has been linked to widespread losses of small and medium-sized native mammals, the depletion of plant biomass due to the effects of irrupting herbivore populations and increased predation rates by red foxes. We outline a suite of conceptual models to describe the effects of dingoes on vertebrate populations across different Australian environments. Finally, we discuss key issues that require consideration or warrant research before the ecological effects of dingoes can be incorporated formally into biodiversity conservation programs.

Towards a framework for implementing individual funding based on an Australian case study

Although individual funding is increasingly being used around the globe as a mechanism to fund social care, its implementation is proving to be problematic and implementation strategies are not well developed. This paper proposes a framework for the successful introduction and implementation of individual funding programs based on the analysis of data collected in a qualitative case study conducted in an Australian not-for-profit disability agency over a 4-year period from 2003 to 2007. Data were gathered through participant observation and interviews with program participants and managers, and the findings were validated with those involved. Bronfenbrenner’s ecological systems theory is used to analyze the findings from a micro, meso, exo, and macro perspective. The following factors were found to be important for successful implementation: the meaningful involvement of the person with disability in decision-making; adequate resources; access to information and appropriate supports; suitable activities being available; knowledge of policies and procedures; policies ensuring oversight and responsible accountability; employment conditions for workers being safeguarded; and support for staff and managers to adjust to their new roles. Knowledge of effective implementation strategies is important for disability agencies and for governments promoting individual funding because this radically different funding arrangement requires new implementation strategies.

Traditional environmental knowledge and community perceptions in sustaining the forest environment : case study of Minahasa ethnic community in the surrounding of Lake Tondano, North Sulawesi - Indonesia

The idea of sustainable development is distinct from the idea of restoring or conserving nature. This concept is embedded in the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development (1992) which Indonesia and several countries around the world have signed. Sustainable development seeks to interlace humans and nature, while restoration (especially at the large scale) often allows nature to be addressed separately, sometimes out of remorse for the damage caused by humans. In terms of attaining sustainable natural resource development, the opportunities offered by traditional ecological knowledge documentation are considered essential in enabling the achievement of sustainability because most of these Indigenous and/or local communities are situated in areas where many species have been historically cultivated and used in a sustainable way for thousands of years. The skill and techniques of these local communities can provide valuable information for the global community to evaluate current environmental policies. Such research and evaluation is often robustly and best undertaken through ethnoecological methodological paradigms. This paper examines the traditional environment knowledge of the Minahasan ethnic community, who live in the surrounds of Lake Tondano in the North Sulawesi, together with the Minahasan conscious and unconscious actions in conserving their forest ecology in addition to their knowledge of culture about forest protection in the region. In particular, contemporary use of traditional environmental knowledge is examined in terms of its relevance to in traditional resource management and land use planning, as avenues to better curate and manage natural resources through informed regional planning strategies and mechanisms.

Correlates of socio-economic inequalities in women’s television viewing : a study of intrapersonal, social and environmental mediators

Introduction

Socio-economically disadvantaged women are at a greater risk of spending excess time engaged in television viewing, a behavior linked to several adverse health outcomes. However, the factors which explain socio-economic differences in television viewing are unknown. This study aimed to investigate the contribution of intrapersonal, social and environmental factors to mediating socio-economic (educational) inequalities in women's television viewing.
Methods

Cross-sectional data were provided by 1,554 women (aged 18-65) who participated in the 'Socio-economic Status and Activity in Women study' of 2004. Based on an ecological framework, women self-reported their socio-economic position (highest education level), television viewing, as well as a number of potential intrapersonal (enjoyment of television viewing, preference for leisure-time sedentary behavior, depression, stress, weight status), social (social participation, interpersonal trust, social cohesion, social support for physical activity from friends and from family) and physical activity environmental factors (safety, aesthetics, distance to places of interest, and distance to physical activity facilities).
Results

Multiple mediating analyses showed that two intrapersonal factors (enjoyment of television viewing and weight status) and two social factors (social cohesion and social support from friends for physical activity) partly explained the educational inequalities in women's television viewing. No physical activity environmental factors mediated educational variations in television viewing.
Conclusions

Acknowledging the cross-sectional nature of this study, these findings suggest that health promotion interventions aimed at reducing educational inequalities in television viewing should focus on intrapersonal and social strategies, particularly providing enjoyable alternatives to television viewing, weight-loss/management information, increasing social cohesion in the neighborhood and promoting friend support for activity.

Is a perceived supportive physical environment important for self-reported leisure time physical activity among socioeconomically disadvantaged women with poor psychosocial characteristics? An observational study

Background Over the past decade, studies and public health interventions that target the physical environment as an avenue for promoting physical activity have increased in number. While it appears that a supportive physical environment has a role to play in promoting physical activity, social-ecological models emphasise the importance of considering other multiple levels of influence on behaviour, including individual (e.g. self-efficacy, intentions, enjoyment) and social (e.g. social support, access to childcare) factors (psychosocial factors). However, not everyone has these physical activity-promoting psychosocial characteristics; it remains unclear what contribution the environment makes to physical activity among these groups. This study aimed to examine the association between the perceived physical environment and self-reported leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) among women living in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas demonstrating different psychosocial characteristics.

Methods In 2007–8, 3765 women (18–45 years) randomly selected from low socioeconomic areas in Victoria, Australia, self-reported LTPA, and individual, social and physical environmental factors hypothesised within a social-ecological framework to influence LTPA. Psychosocial and environment scores were created. Associations between environment scores and categories of LTPA (overall and stratified by thirds of perceived environment scores) were examined using generalised ordered logistic regression.

Results Women with medium and high perceived environment scores had 20-38% and 44-70% greater odds respectively of achieving higher levels of LTPA than women with low environment scores. When stratified by thirds of psychosocial factor scores, these associations were largely attenuated and mostly became non-significant. However, women with the lowest psychosocial scores but medium or high environment scores had 76% and 58% higher odds respectively of achieving ≥120 minutes/week (vs. <120 minutes/week) LTPA.

Conclusions Acknowledging the cross-sectional study design, the findings suggest that a physical environment perceived to be supportive of physical activity might help women with less favourable psychosocial characteristics achieve moderate amounts of LTPA (i.e. ≥120 minutes/week). This study provides further support for research and public health interventions to target perceptions of the physical environment as a key component of strategies to promote physical activity.

Food policy development in the Australian state of Victoria : a case study of the Food Alliance

This article explores the development of a food policy body called the Food Alliance and the role of the organization in encouraging the development of food policy that integrates health and ecological issues. The Food Alliance is located within the Australian state of Victoria. A policy triangle is used as a framework to describe and analyse the work of the Food Alliance. Lessons are drawn about effective strategies for influencing integrated food policy. This occurs in a context where food policy typically favours powerful industry and agricultural interests and where relationships between the health and environmental sectors are in their infancy. The implications for planning and organizing a state-wide food policy are explored from the perspective of policy and the ways in which this can be influenced through working with key stakeholders.

Towards healthy and sustainable food consumption: an Australian case study

Objective To articulate a healthy and sustainable (H&S) diet; outline key health and environmental sustainability principles that can be applied in the selection of foods for inclusion in such a diet; and describe a methodology with which to assess the availability and affordability of a H&S food basket.

Design We synthesized publically available evidence on the environmental impact of different foods from academic, government, industry and non-government sources and constructed a hypothetical H&S equivalent of the typical Australian diet. Based on this, we constructed a weekly H&S food basket for a household of two adults and two children.

Setting Australia.

Subjects Australian populations.

Results The H&S diet is based on three overarching principles: (i) any food that is consumed above a person's energy requirement represents an avoidable environmental burden in the form of greenhouse gas emissions, use of natural resources and pressure on biodiversity; (ii) reducing the consumption of discretionary food choices, which are energy-dense and highly processed and packaged, reduces both the risk of dietary imbalances and the use of environmental resources; and (iii) a diet comprising less animal- and more plant-derived foods delivers both health and ecological benefits.

Conclusions We have focused on the articulation of a H&S diet not to facilitate ‘policy drift’ to focus on individual dietary choice, but rather to provide evidence to extend dietary guideline recommendations so as to integrate environmental considerations within the scope of food and health policy advice in Australia and elsewhere.

Correlates of change in adults’ television viewing time : a four-year follow-up study

Purpose: Adults tend to increase their television (TV) viewing time as they age, but little is known about attributes associated with change in TV viewing over time. This study examined individual, social, and environmental correlates of change in TV viewing time for 4 yr.

Methods: Adult participants (n = 897) from a longitudinal epidemiological study in Adelaide, Australia, reported TV viewing time at baseline (2003–2004) and at follow- up (2007–2008). Generalized linear modeling was used to examine correlates of change in TV viewing time.

Results: The mean TV viewing time increased from 112 to 116 min·d-1 from baseline to follow-up. Adjusted for TV viewing time at baseline, having a tertiary education was associated with a 13% lower TV time at follow-up (P = 0.007). Each additional hour of occupational and transport physical activity at baseline was associated with a 2% and 7% lower TV viewing at follow-up (P = 0.031 and P = 0.023, respectively). For men, an additional hour of domestic physical activity was associated with a 7% higher TV viewing time at follow-up (P = 0.006). A significant neighborhood walkability × working status interaction (P = 0.035) indicated that, for those who were not working, living in a highly walkable neighborhood was associated with a 23% lower TV viewing time at follow-up (P = 0.003).

Conclusions: Adults with lower educational attainment, adults with lower occupational and transport physical activity, men with higher domestic physical activity, and nonworking adults living in lowly walkable neighborhoods were at higher risk of increase in TV viewing time. Interventions should target multiple variables at the individual, social, and environmental levels to address age-related increases in TV viewing time.

Home based business in suburban peripheral regions and government policy: a case study of Casey, Melbourne, Australia

Home based businesses (HBB) are increasingly becoming an alternative to salaried employment. This research explores the potential for HBB to contribute significantly to the economic development of peripheral metropolitan centres. Without economic development, these centres remain dormitory suburbs with unresolved associated social and ecological issues. By mapping the diversity and limitations of HBB in the City of Casey, an outer suburban peripheral area of Melbourne, Australia, this study aims to evaluate what exists and the response by governments at all levels to further business development. This study finds that the role of government is restricted to broad initial start-ups, with no programs or support for the type of innovative HBB that need to be husbanded and encouraged to grow outside of the narrow confines of their home base.

Descriptive analysis of landings during international netball competition: enhancing ecological validity of laboratory testing environments

Non-contact landings have been identified as a common activity associated with injury in netball. Investigating injury risk factors during landing via laboratory-based analysis warrants the performance of sportspecific landing tasks with the inclusion of “game- like” factors to enhance ecological validity of testing protocols. Understanding how players perform landing tasks in a competitive environment is, therefore, essential.

The purpose of this study was to perform a descriptive analysis of in-game landings performed by netball players, with regard to the landing techniques used and game events surrounding these landings; with the intent of providing information to enhance the ecological validity of laboratory-based testing environments. Landings were categorised according to landing technique and game events surrounding the landing.

Educational inequalities in TV viewing among older adults: a mediation analysis of ecological factors

Background
Television (TV) viewing, a prevalent leisure-time sedentary behaviour independently related to negative health outcomes, appears to be higher in less educated and older adults. In order to tackle the social inequalities, evidence is needed about the underlying mechanisms of the association between education and TV viewing. The present purpose was to examine the potential mediating role of personal, social and physical environmental factors in the relationship between education and TV viewing among Australian 55–65 year-old adults.

Methods
In 2010, self-reported data was collected among 4082 adults (47.6% men) across urban and rural areas of Victoria, for the Wellbeing, Eating and Exercise for a Long Life (WELL) study. The mediating role of personal (body mass index [BMI], quality of life), social (social support from family and friends, social participation at proximal level, and interpersonal trust, social cohesion, personal safety at distal level) and physical environmental (neighbourhood aesthetics, neighbourhood physical activity environment, number of televisions) factors in the association between education and TV viewing time was examined using the product-of-coefficients test of MacKinnon based on multilevel linear regression analyses (conducted in 2012).

Results
Multiple mediating analyses showed that BMI (p ≤ 0.01), personal safety (p < 0.001), neighbourhood aesthetics (p ≤ 0.01) and number of televisions (p ≤ 0.01) partly explained the educational inequalities in older adult’s TV viewing. No proximal social factors mediated the education-TV viewing association.

Conclusions
Interventions aimed to reduce TV viewing should focus on personal (BMI) and environmental (personal safety, neighbourhood aesthetics, number of televisions) factors, in order to overcome educational inequalities in sedentary behaviour among older adults.

State body dissatisfaction and social interactions : an experience sampling study

To date, there has been limited empirical scrutiny of the correlates and consequences of day-to-day state body dissatisfaction fluctuations within naturalistic contexts. We used ecological momentary assessment (a form of naturalistic observation) to evaluate whether state body dissatisfaction was concurrently and/or prospectively associated with occurrence and quality of social interactions. Women (N = 121), aged 18 to 40, completed a brief trait-based survey and then nominated a 7-day period within which to receive seven text messages daily, at random intervals, prompting them to complete measures of body dissatisfaction at that moment. If they were currently or had recently engaged in social interactions, they were also asked to fill out questions rating the quality of these interactions (operationalized in terms of enjoyment of, and control in, the interaction). Findings suggest that the relationship between state body dissatisfaction and aspects of social interactions is complex and may vary over time. Cross-sectionally, state body dissatisfaction and social interaction quality were negatively associated. Prospectively, however, body dissatisfaction predicted subsequent avoidance of social interactions. Interestingly, when women chose to avoid social interactions, their body dissatisfaction worsened, yet when they did engage in social interactions, they reported improved body satisfaction. Importantly, the links between state body dissatisfaction and social interactions may be moderated by body mass index and trait body satisfaction levels. Potential mechanisms underlying the association between state body dissatisfaction and quality and quantity of social interactions are discussed, and future research avenues are proposed to further understand their inter-relation.

How well do predators adjust to climate-mediated shifts in prey distribution? A study on Australian water pythons

Climate change can move the spatial location of resources critical for population viability, and a species' resilience to such changes will depend upon its ability to flexibly shift its activities away from no-longer-suitable sites to exploit new opportunities. Intuition suggests that vagile predators should be able to track spatial shifts in prey availability, but our data on water pythons (Liasis fuscus) in tropical Australia suggest a less encouraging scenario. These pythons undergo regular long-range (to >10 km) seasonal migrations to follow flooding-induced migrations by their prey (native dusky rats, Rattus colletti). However, when an extreme flooding event virtually eliminated rats for a three-year period, the local pythons did not disperse despite the presence of abundant rats only 8 km away; instead, many pythons starved to death. This inflexibility suggests that some vagile species that track seasonally migrating prey may do so by responding to habitat attributes that have consistently predicted prey availability over evolutionary time, rather than reacting to proximate cues that signal the presence of prey per se. A species' vulnerability to climate change will be increased by an inability to shift its activities away from historical sites toward newly favorable areas.