A mathematical model for the spread of Strepotococcus pneumoniae with transmission dependent on serotype

We examine a mathematical model for the transmission of Streptococcus Pneumoniae amongst young children when the carriage transmission coefficient depends on the serotype. Carriage means pneumococcal colonization. There are two sequence types (STs) spreading in a population each of which can be expressed as one of two serotypes. We derive the differential equation model for the carriage spread and perform an equilibrium and global stability analysis on it. A key parameter is the effective reproduction number R e. For R e ≤ 1,  there is only the carriage-free equilibrium (CFE) and the carriage will die out whatever be the starting values. For R e > 1, unless the effective reproduction numbers of the two STs are equal, in addition to the CFE there are two carriage equilibria, one for each ST. If the ST with the largest effective reproduction number is initially present, then in the long-term the carriage will tend to the corresponding equilibrium.

A mathematical model for the spread of streptococcus pneumoniae with transmission due to sequence type

This paper discusses a simple mathematical model to describe the spread of Streptococcus pneumoniae. We suppose that the transmission of the bacterium is determined by multi-locus sequence type. The model includes vaccination and is designed to examine what happens in a vaccinated population if MLSTs can exist as both vaccine and non vaccine serotypes with capsular switching possible from the former to the latter. We start off with a discussion of Streptococcus pneumoniae and a review of previous work. We propose a simple mathematical model with two sequence types and then perform an equilibrium and (global) stability analysis on the model. We show that in general there are only three equilibria, the carriage-free equilibrium and two carriage equilibria. If the effective reproduction number Re is less than or equal to one, then the carriage will die out. If Re > 1, then the carriage will tend to the carriage equilibrium corresponding to the multi-locus sequence type with the largest transmission parameter. In the case where both multi-locus sequence types have the same transmission parameter then there is a line of carriage equilibria. Provided that carriage is initially present then as time progresses the carriage will approach a point on this line. The results generalize to many competing sequence types. Simulations with realistic parameter values confirm the analytical results.

Community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus transmission in households of infected cases : a pooled analysis of primary data from three studies across international settings

Diverse strain types of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) cause infections in community settings worldwide. To examine heterogeneity of spread within households and to identify common risk factors for household transmission across settings, primary data from studies conducted in New York (USA), Breda (The Netherlands), and Melbourne (Australia) were pooled. Following MRSA infection of the index patient, household members completed questionnaires and provided nasal swabs. Swabs positive for S. aureus were genotyped by spa sequencing. Poisson regression with robust error variance was used to estimate prevalence odds ratios for transmission of the clinical isolate to non-index household members. Great diversity of strain types existed across studies. Despite differences between studies, the index patient being colonized with the clinical isolate at the home visit (P < 0·01) and the percent of household members aged <18 years (P < 0·01) were independently associated with transmission. Targeted decolonization strategies could be used across geographical settings to limit household MRSA transmission.

Visualization of HIV-1 interactions with penile and foreskin epithelia: clues for female-to-male HIV transmission

To gain insight into female-to-male HIV sexual transmission and how male circumcision protects against this mode of transmission, we visualized HIV-1 interactions with foreskin and penile tissues in ex vivo tissue culture and in vivo rhesus macaque models utilizing epifluorescent microscopy. 12 foreskin and 14 cadaveric penile specimens were cultured with R5-tropic photoactivatable (PA)-GFP HIV-1 for 4 or 24 hours. Tissue cryosections were immunofluorescently imaged for epithelial and immune cell markers. Images were analyzed for total virions, proportion of penetrators, depth of virion penetration, as well as immune cell counts and depths in the tissue. We visualized individual PA virions breaching penile epithelial surfaces in the explant and macaque model. Using kernel density estimated probabilities of localizing a virion or immune cell at certain tissue depths revealed that interactions between virions and cells were more likely to occur in the inner foreskin or glans penis (from local or cadaveric donors, respectively). Using statistical models to account for repeated measures and zero-inflated datasets, we found no difference in total virions visualized at 4 hours between inner and outer foreskins from local donors. At 24 hours, there were more virions in inner as compared to outer foreskin (0.0495 +/- 0.0154 and 0.0171 +/- 0.0038 virions/image, p = 0.001). In the cadaveric specimens, we observed more virions in inner foreskin (0.0507 +/- 0.0079 virions/image) than glans tissue (0.0167 +/- 0.0033 virions/image, p<0.001), but a greater proportion was seen penetrating uncircumcised glans tissue (0.0458 +/- 0.0188 vs. 0.0151 +/- 0.0100 virions/image, p = 0.099) and to significantly greater mean depths (29.162 +/- 3.908 vs. 12.466 +/- 2.985 μm). Our in vivo macaque model confirmed that virions can breach penile squamous epithelia in a living model. In summary, these results suggest that the inner foreskin and glans epithelia may be important sites for HIV transmission in uncircumcised men.