The effect of victim age on police authorisation of charges in cases of child sexual abuse

In the study, a cohort of 440 child sexual abuse cases were used to model the effect of victim age on police authorisation of charges. Linear and quadratic effects of age were modelled in a logistic regression that controlled for case characteristics and evidence. The quadratic effect of victim age was strengthened when control variables were included in the model and the linear effect of age was not significant in the final model. The results indicated that cases involving victims in middle childhood had a higher proportion of suspects charged than cases involving victims in early childhood and adolescence. Possible mediators of the relationship between victim age and charges were explored and it was found that cases with older victims had a higher prevalence of extra-familial abuse and suspect confessions, and these factors had a positive effect on the proportion of suspects charged. Possible explanations for the quadratic effect of victim age and mediation are discussed.

Police and prosecutors' perceptions of adult sexual assault evidence associated with case authorisation and conviction

This study examined the association between the quality of verbal evidence in cases of sexual assault reported by adults and professionals’ (police and prosecutor) ratings of the likelihood that the cases will result in a conviction at trial. Sixteen police detectives and 19 prosecutors (all specialists in sexual assault) each read two mock sexual offence briefs of evidence, one of a case involving rape of an adult and the other involving an adult reporting historical child sexual abuse. For each case type, two versions of the briefs were developed with regard to evidence quality, which varied according to the degree of elaboration in the responses by the witnesses and suspect, and contextual evidence. Participants rated the likelihood of proceeding with a case and conviction (on 10-point likert scales) and provided a rationale for their decisions. Almost all of the participants agreed that the cases would proceed to court. However, the likelihood of conviction was not associated with the likelihood of proceeding to court, or the evidence quality of the briefs. Differences were found in both the ratings of proceeding to court and conviction, and the factors underpinning the ratings across the two professional groups. The implications of the findings for police organisations are discussed.

Decline and re-expansion of an amphibian with high prevalence of chytrid fungus

The disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is a key driver of global amphibian declines. While chytridiomycosis can cause extinction, many susceptible species persist after an initial period of decline, albeit with reduced abundance and distribution. Emerging evidence indicates that amphibian abundance can recover within remnant populations, but to date, the capacity of amphibian populations to re-expand into historically occupied habitat has received limited research attention. We surveyed 145 sites in 2011 and 2012 to determine if populations of the whistling tree frog (Litoria verreauxii verreauxii) have re-expanded compared with historical data from 1975-1976, 1990 and 1996. L. v. verreauxii underwent a major range contraction likely caused by chytridiomycosis between the first two time periods. Populations have recently re-expanded, with 39 new sites colonised despite high prevalence of Bd. We suspect that changes in disease dynamics have resulted in the increased coexistence of L. v. verreauxii and Bd. Habitat attributes at sites that retained frogs for the duration of the study indicate that high quality habitat may contribute to buffering against population level effects of Bd. Colonised sites had more coarse woody debris, suggesting a possible habitat management strategy to encourage range expansion for this species. Given sufficient time and adequate source populations in high quality habitat, it is possible that other amphibian species may re-expand from chytridiomycosis-induced declines. This provides an impetus for the protection of historical, but currently unoccupied amphibian habitats and highlights the importance of maintaining high quality habitat to help species survive novel shocks such as pandemic diseases.

Identifying the characteristics of child sexual abuse cases that exit the criminal justice system before the forensic interview

Most child sexual abuse cases do not result in conviction; rather, they result in attrition at an earlier point in the system. Although research has looked at case characteristics associated with attrition at later stages of the system (i.e. the laying of charges and prosecution stages), to date, no research has studied the case characteristics associated with attrition as soon as a report has been made to authorities. The aim of this study was to determine the case characteristics (child complainant, suspect and additional case characteristics) associated with attrition when a case first enters the criminal justice system before a forensic interview is conducted. All child sexual abuse incidents reported to police in one jurisdiction of Australia in 2011 were examined. Three case characteristics were found to predict attrition: previous disclosure, abuse frequency and the child complainant’s age. Specifically, cases were more likely to result in attrition when the child had not previously disclosed the abuse to an adult, the abuse was a single incident rather than repeated, and a curvilinear relationship was found for child age. Cases involving children aged 7–12 years were less likely to result in attrition than cases involving younger (0–6 years) and older (13–15 years) children. This information should assist professionals and researchers in developing interventions to reduce the attrition when necessary during this early stage of the criminal justice system.

Identifying the characteristics of child sexual abuse cases associated with the child or child's parents withdrawing the complaint

Most child sexual abuse cases do not result in a full trial or guilty plea; rather, case attrition occurs at earlier stages of the criminal justice system. One reason for the attrition of these cases is the withdrawal of complaints, by children or their caregivers. The aim of the current study was to determine the case characteristics associated with complaint withdrawal in child sexual abuse cases by the child or his or her parents once a report has been made to authorities. All child sexual abuse incidents reported to authorities in one jurisdiction of Australia in 2011 were analyzed (N=659). A multinomial logistic regression was used to predict the following case outcomes: (1) withdrawn by the child or his or her parents, (2) exited for other reasons (e.g., the alleged offender was not identified, the child refused to be interviewed), and (3) resulted in a charge. Five predictors significantly added to the prediction of case outcome: child age, suspect gender, suspect age, child-suspect relationship, and abuse frequency. These results should contribute to the design of interventions in order to reduce complaint withdrawals if these withdrawals are not in the child's best interests.

Identifying diffusion sources in large networks: a community structure based approach

The global diffusion of epidemics, rumors and computer viruses causes great damage to our society. It is critical to identify the diffusion sources and promptly quarantine them. However, most methods proposed so far are unsuitable for large networks because of their computational cost and the complex spatiotemporal diffusion processes. In this paper, we develop a community structure based approach to efficiently identify diffusion sources in large networks. We first detect the community structure of a network and assign sensors on community bridge nodes to record diffusion dynamics. From the infection time of bridge sensors, we can determine the very first infected community from which the diffusion started and spread out to other communities. This, therefore, overcomes the scalability issue in source identification problems by narrowing the set of suspects down to the first infected community. Then, to accurately locate the diffusion source from suspects, we utilize an intrinsic feature of diffusion sources that the relative infection time of any node is linear with its effective distance from the diffusion source. Thus, for each suspect, we compute the correlation coefficient to measure the degree of linear dependence between sensors' relative infection times and their effective distances from the suspect, and consider the one with the greatest correlation coefficient as the source. We evaluate our approach in two large networks containing more than 300,000 nodes, which are collected from Twitter. The experiment results show that our method can identify diffusion sources with very high degree of accuracy. Especially when the average community size shrinks, the accuracy of our approach increases dramatically.

Introduction to perspectives on architectural design research

If something called ‘design research’ was to begin tomorrow, what might we want it to encompass: how designers design, how they learn to design, what the limits and shapers of design might be? What other aspects of architectural activity should it deal with? Minimally, there is a range of possible social, cultural and environmental matters which could be considered and which certainly impinge on questions of why designing is undertaken and who, or what, it is for. But, such issues were central prior to there being something called ‘design research’. In grumpier moments over two decades it has been tempting to suspect some architects of using the term to fashionably relabel what they do. Enriched accounts, such as the range offered in this book, are required to clarify whether or not it is a useful construct. Since I am a fabricator and make things (up) as a way of designing, let me engage in a little fabricating around design research: tales of its history, present context, and of ideas for its future.

Anticipating hope

It took an inordinate amount of time before I knew how to get on with writing this chapter. Of course, as often is the case, circumstances like a calendar deadline loomed and I no longer had the availability of leaving the task on the ‘to-do’ pile. But my hesitancy was, I suspect, the result of other considerations impacting on its completion. One of these was deciding on the content to include in the discussion and it was no mean feat to come to where I now am given the corpus of writing John Shotter has produced over the years. But on reflection, it was not until I realised I needed to write with someone/a group as an audience that I was able to proceed. In other words, it was not until I could place myself within conversation that I was able to begin.