Risk assessment of child-victim sex offenders for extended supervision in New Zealand

Recently enacted legislation in New Zealand, the Parole (Extended Supervision) Amendment Act 2004, allows for the imposition of up to 10 years of supervision in the community for child-victim sex offenders following their release from prison. The Act requires reports to be written specifically assessing the risk of sexual re-offending against children. This study examined the application of actuarial measures used by the New Zealand Department of Corrections in these assessments, including a computer-scored instrument based on static factors (the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale; ASRS) and a clinically-based judgement of dynamic risk factors (the SONAR). It was expected that a conservative approach would be taken in making recommendations for or against extended periods of supervision, such that a high score on either measure would predict a recommendation for extended supervision. It was found, however, that a more individualized approach was often taken, whereby a baseline assessment of risk as predicted by the ASRS was adjusted by clinicians based on SONAR ratings. Implications for the practice of risk assessment in sexual re-offending are discussed.

Sex offender risk assessment : consideration of human rights in community protection legislation

ObjectivesRisk assessments provided to judicial decision makers as a part of the current generation of legislation for protecting the public from sexual offenders can have a profound impact on the rights of individual offenders. This article will identify some of the human rights issues inherent in using the current assessment procedures to formulate and communicate risk as a forensic expert in cases involving civil commitment, preventive detention, extended supervision, or special conditions of parole. MethodBased on the current professional literature and applied experience in legal proceedings under community protection laws in the United States and New Zealand, potential threats to the rights of offenders are identified. Central to these considerations are issues of the accuracy of current risk assessment measures, communicating the findings of risk assessment appropriately to the court, and the availability of competent forensic mental health professionals in carrying out these functions. The role of the forensic expert is discussed in light of the competing demands of protecting individual human rights and community protection. ConclusionActuarial risk assessment represents the best practice for informing judicial decision makers in cases involving sex offenders, yet these measures currently demonstrate substantial limitations in predictive accuracy when applied to individual offenders. These limitations must be clearly articulated when reporting risk assessment findings. Sufficient risk assessment expertise should be available to provide a balanced application of community protection laws.

Risk of sexual recidivism as a function of age and actuarial risk

The study of risk for sexual recidivism has undergone substantial development in recent years. The foundation for advances in this area has been the use of actuarial measures to identify subgroups of offenders with different observed rates of sexual re-offending over time. An unresolved issue within this research area has been the moderating function of age in the assessment of risk. The current study examined sexual re-offending as a function of age and actuarial risk in a large sample of sexual offenders released from prison between 1990 and 2004. There was an overall decrease in the rate of sexual re-offending over the age of 50. However, a small group of offenders from the higher actuarial risk categories of the older age groups continued to re-offend at higher rates than their lower-risk peers.

Anthropometric risk factors for patellar tendon injury among volleyball players

Objective: Abnormal imaging in the patellar tendon reveals pathology that is often associated with knee pain. Anthropometric measures of body size and mass, such as height, weight and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), have been individually associated with abnormal imaging. The aim of this study was to investigate the anthropometric factors that have the strongest relationship with abnormal imaging in volleyball players.

Methods: Height, weight, body mass index (BMI), waist girth, hip girth and WHR were measured in a cohort of 113 competitive volleyball players (73 men, 40 women). The univariate (ANOVA) and multivariable (discriminant function analysis) association between abnormal imaging and these anthropometric factors were investigated.

Results: No significant association was found in the female volleyball players. A significant univariate association was observed between abnormal imaging and heavier weight, greater BMI, larger waist and hip girth and larger WHR in the male volleyball players. Waist girth was the only factor that retained this association in a multivariable model (p<0.05).

Conclusions: Men with a waist girth greater than 83 cm seem to be at greater risk of developing patellar tendon pathology. There may be both mechanical and biochemical reasons for this increased risk.

Validity and reliability of measures of television viewing time and other non-occupational sedentary behaviour of adults : a review

Time spent in non-occupational sedentary behaviours (particularly television viewing time) is associated with excess adiposity and an increased risk of metabolic disorders among adults; however, there are no reviews of the validity and reliability of assessing these behaviours. This paper aims to document measures used to assess adults' time spent in leisure-time sedentary behaviours and to review the evidence on their reliability and validity. Medline, CINAHL and Psych INFO databases and reference lists from published papers were searched to identify studies in which leisure-time sedentary behaviours had been measured in adults. Sixty papers reporting measurement of at least one type of leisure-time sedentary behaviour were identified. Television viewing time was the most commonly measured sedentary behaviour. The main method of data collection was by questionnaire. Nine studies examined reliability and three examined validity for the questionnaire method of data collection. Test–retest reliabilities were predominantly moderate to high, but the validity studies reported large differences in correlations of self-completion questionnaire data with the various referent measures used. To strengthen future epidemiological and health behaviour studies, the development of reliable and valid self-report instruments that cover the full range of leisure-time sedentary behaviour is a priority.

Fractal analysis of bone texture : a screening tool for stress fracture risk?

Background The aim of this study was to identify specific bone characteristics of stress fracture (SF) cases in sportswomen. To date, no tool is able to distinguish individuals who are at risk, limiting preventive measures.

Material and methods We investigated the skeletal system of sportswomen who did sustain SF in the past (n = 19) and compared it with that of female controls (C) with a similar sporting history but without any fracture history (n = 20).

Bone mass and body composition were measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Bone micro-architecture was investigated by calcaneal ultrasound and fractal analysis of calcaneus radiographic images. Oestradiol levels were measured by E.I.A, and IGF-1 by R.I.A. Menstrual characteristics, nutrient intake, and training were assessed using questionnaires.

Results The result of the fractal analysis, expressed by the Hmean parameter, was significantly lower in the SF group, reflecting a more complex structure of the trabecular micro-architectural organization (P < 0·005). Body mass index (BMI) at birth was also found to be lower in the SF cases as compared with their C (P < 0·03).

Multivariate analysis revealed that the fractal parameter Hmean, bone mineral content (BMC) at Ward's triangle and the BMI at birth correctly assigned 84·85% of the female athletes into their respective SF or C groups (P = 0·001).

Conclusion These results suggest that the fractal parameter and the BMI at birth may be able to identify female athletes most at risk for this overuse bone injury, as their low indexes might reflect a greater skeletal sensitivity.

The money laundering risk posed by low-risk financial products in South Africa : findings and guidelines

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the level and nature of criminal abuse of financial products that are classified as posing a low anti-money laundering/combating of financing of terrorists (AML/CFT) risk in South Africa to determine the effectiveness of the simplified due diligence measures that apply to these products.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper presents empirical research on the views of bank officials and law enforcement officials regarding the criminal abuse of South African financial products that are subject to simplified customer due diligence controls.

Findings – South Africa's AML/CFT laws allow certain deposit-taking institutions and money remitters to implement simplified customer due diligence measures in relation to specific low-risk products that are mainly designed to allow previously unbanked persons to access financial services. The paper finds that the products have been abused by criminals but that the incidence of such abuse and the amounts involved are low. The paper investigates possible weaknesses in the current system that allow limited criminal abuse to occur. It concludes with a number of guidelines that emerge from the study and are of value to regulators that wish to implement a similar system.

Originality/value – The South African AML/CFT scheme in relation to low-risk products is of interest to many international regulators that are grappling with the interplay between effective AML/CFT controls and the impact of strict controls on the ability of socially and economically excluded persons to access appropriate financial services. This paper provides evidence that appropriately designed controls can facilitate financial inclusion while limiting the risk of criminal abuse.

Waist circumference, waist-hip ratio and BMI and their correlation with cardiovascular risk factors in Australian adults

Objectives. To compare body mass index (BMI), waist circumference and waist–hip ratio (WHR) as indices of obesity and assess the respective associations with type 2 diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidaemia.

Design and setting. A national sample of 11 247 Australians aged ≥25 years was examined in 2000 in a cross-sectional survey.

Main outcome measures. The examination included a fasting blood sample, standard 2-h 75-g oral glucose tolerance test, blood pressure measurements and questionnaires to assess treatment for dyslipidaemia and hypertension. BMI, waist circumference and WHR were measured to assess overweight and obesity.

Results. The prevalence of obesity amongst Australian adults defined by BMI, waist circumference and WHR was 20.8, 30.5 and 15.8% respectively. The unadjusted odds ratio for the fourth vs. first quartile of each obesity measurement showed that WHR had the strongest relationship with type 2 diabetes, dyslipidaemia (women only) and hypertension. Following adjustment for age, however, there was little difference between the three measures of obesity, with the possible exceptions of hypertension in women, where BMI had a stronger association, and dyslipidaemia in women and type 2 diabetes in men, where WHR was marginally superior.

Conclusions. Waist circumference, BMI and WHR identified different proportions of the population, as measured by both prevalence of obesity and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. Whilst WHR had the strongest correlations with CVD risk factors before adjustment for age, the three obesity measures performed similarly after adjustment for age. Given the difficulty of using age-adjusted associations in the clinical setting, these results suggest that given appropriate cut-off points, WHR is the most useful measure of obesity to use to identify individuals with CVD risk factors.

Risk factors for female sexual dysfunction in the general population : exploring factors associated with low sexual function and sexual distress

Introduction. No previous population-based studies have used validated instruments to measure female sexual dysfunction (FSD) in Australian women across a broad age range.
Aim. To estimate prevalence and explore factors associated with the  components of FSD.
Main Outcome Measures. Sexual Function Questionnaire measured low sexual function. Female Sexual Distress Scale measured sexual distress.
Methods. Multivariate analysis of postal survey data from a random sample of 356 women aged 20–70 years.
Results. Low desire was more likely to occur in women in relationships for 20–29 years (odds ratio 3.7, 95% confidence intervals 1.1–12.8) and less likely in women reporting greater satisfaction with their partner as a lover (0.3, 0.1–0.9) or who placed greater importance on sex (0.1, 0.03–0.3). Low genital arousal was more likely among women who were perimenopausal (4.4, 1.2–15.7), postmenopausal (5.3, 1.6–17.7), or depressed (2.5, 1.1–5.3), and was less likely in women taking hormone therapy (0.2, 0.04–0.7), more educated (0.5, 0.3–0.96), in their 30s (0.2, 0.1–0.7) or 40s (0.2, 0.1–0.7), or placed greater importance on sex (0.2, 0.05–0.5). Low orgasmic function was less likely in women who were in their 30s (0.3, 0.1–0.8) or who placed greater importance on sex (0.3, 0.1–0.7). Sexual distress was positively associated with depression (3.1, 1.2–7.8) and was inversely associated with better communication of sexual needs (0.2, 0.05–0.5). Results were adjusted for other covariates including age, psychological, socioeconomic, physiological, and relationship factors.
Conclusions. Relationship factors were more important to low desire than age or menopause, whereas physiological and psychological factors were more important to low genital arousal and low orgasmic function than relationship factors. Sexual distress was associated with both psychological and relationship factors.

Dyslipidaemia in rural Australia : prevalence, awareness, and adherence to treatment guidelines in the Greater Green Triangle risk factor study

Objectives: To determine population lipid profiles, awareness of hyperlipidaemia and adherence to Australian lipid management guidelines.
Design and setting: Population survey in rural south-eastern Australia, 2004–2006.
Participants: Stratified random sample from the electoral roll. Data from 1274 participants (40%) aged 25–74 years were analysed.
Main outcome measures: Population mean total, low-density lipoprotein and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TC, LDL-C and HDL-C) and triglyceride (TG) concentrations, prevalence of dyslipidaemia, and treatment according to 2001 and 2005 Australian guideline target levels.
Results: Population-adjusted mean TC, TG, LDL-C and HDL-C concentrations were 5.38 mmol/L (95% CI, 5.30–5.45), 1.50 mmol/L (95% CI, 1.43–1.56), 3.23 mmol/L (95% CI, 3.16–3.30) and 1.46 mmol/L (95% CI, 1.44–1.49), respectively. Prevalence of hypercholesterolaemia (TC > 5.5 mmol/L or on treatment) was 48%. Lipid-lowering medication use was reported by 12%. Seventy-seven of 183 participants with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) or diabetes were untreated, and of the 106 treated, 59% reached the target LDL-C. Of those without CVD or diabetes already treated, 38% reached target LDL-C, and 397 participants at high absolute risk did not receive primary prevention. Ninety-five per cent of treated individuals with CVD or diabetes and 86% of others treated had cholesterol measured in the previous year. Sixty-nine per cent of individuals at low risk aged over 45 years had their cholesterol measured within the previous 5 years.
Conclusions: A comprehensive national strategy for lowering mean population cholesterol is required, as is better implementation of absolute risk management guidelines — particularly in rural populations.

Importance of assessing family dysfunction in conjunction with standardised measures when treating substance abuse

In this thesis, the link between substance abuse and family dysfunction is examined, and an argument is made for the assessment of family dysfunction when treating clients with substance abuse issues. Family dysfunction has been associated with a broad range of problems in children (e.g., low self esteem, increased risk of child abuse) through to adolescence and adulthood (e.g., increased risk of mental disorders such as depressive disorders, substance abuse disorders, and personality disorders) (Kaplan & Sadock, 1998). It is not the purpose of this thesis to suggest that family dysfunction causes substance abuse but rather to highlight that family dysfunction can in some cases place the individual at greater risk of substance abuse. Therefore, in order to understand the reasons why substance abuse developed and how it is maintained in the present requires the assessment of family dysfunction. Further, the importance of assessing the role and impact that family dysfunction may have had on the client, may help to better understand the nature and extent of substance abuse so that relevant and appropriate treatment goals for change may be set, progress monitored, and risk of relapse reduced. Chapter 1 provides a brief introduction to this thesis, and Chapter 2 is a review of the literature on the impact of family dysfunction including poor parental attachment and supervision, neglect, physical and sexual abuse, in adolescence and adulthood. Four case studies are presented to illustrate how family dysfunction and substance abuse may be related, thus highlighting the importance of assessing family dysfunction when treating substance abuse clients. All of the case studies include an individual with a substance abuse disorder (namely heroin) but they are diverse in terms of the types and extent of family dysfunction. The final chapter discusses the case studies in relation to the literature reviewed. Lastly, it gives consideration to the implication of a history of family dysfunction, and how it may impact negatively on treatment and therefore prognosis.

Effects of strength, flexibility and moderate intensity cardiovascular exercise on measures of fitness in sedentary women

The maintenance of functional physical fitness across the lifespan depends upon the presence or absence of disease, injury, and the level of habitual physical activity. The prevalence of sedentariness rises with increasing age culminating in 31% of elderly women being classified as leading a sedentary lifestyle. Exercise prescription that involves easily accomplished physical activity may result in the maintenance of mobility into old age through a reduction in the risk of premature death and disablement from cardiovascular disease and a reduction in the risk of falls and injuries from falls. It may be that short bouts of physical activity are more appealing to the sedentary and to those in full time employment than longer bouts, and it may be that short bouts of exercise, performed three times per day, can improve physical fitness. The purpose of this study was therefore to examine the problem: Does exercise session duration, initial cardiovascular fitness, and age group effect changes in functional physical fitness in sedentary women training for strength, flexibility and aerobic fitness? Twenty-three, sedentary women aged between 19 and 54 years who were employed at a major metropolitan hospital undertook six weeks of moderate intensity physical activity in one of two training groups. Participants were randomly allocated to either short duration (3 x 10 minute), or long duration (30 minute), exercise groups. The 3 x 10 minute group (n=13), participated in three, 10 minute sessions per day separated by at least 2 hours, 3 days per week. The 30 minute group (n=10), participated in three 30 minute sessions per week. The total amount of work was similar, with an average of 129 and 148 kcal training day for the 3 x 10 minute and 30 minute groups, respectively. The training program incorporated three walking and stair climbing courses for aerobic conditioning, a series of eleven static stretches for joint flexibility, and isotonic and isometric strength exercises for lower and upper body muscular strength. Measures of functional strength, functional flexibility and cardiovascular fitness were assessed prior to training, and immediately following the six week exercise program. A two way analysis of variance (Group x Time) was used to examine the effect of training and group on the dependent variables. The level of significance, 0.05 was adopted for all statistical tests. Mean hand grip strength showed for both groups no significant change over time for the 3 x 10 minute group (30.7kg to 31.7kg) and 30 minute group (30.2kg to 32.4kg). Leg strength showed a trend for improvement (p=0.098) in both the 3 x 10 minute and 30 minute training groups representing a 15% and 18% improvement, respectively. Combined right and left neck rotation significantly improved in the 3 x 10 minute group (82.8° to 92.0°) and 30 minute group (82.5° to 91.5°). Wrist flexion and extension improved significantly in 3 out of the 4 measurements. Left wrist flexion improved significantly by an average of 7.0% for the 3 x 10 minute and 4.9% for the 30 minute group. Right and left wrist extension improved significantly in the 3 x 10 minute and 30 minute training groups (5.9% and 6.8%, respectively). Hip and spine flexibility improved 3.4cm (35.2cm to 38.6cm) in the 3 x 10 minute group, and 6.6cm (37.4cm to 44.0cm) in the 30 minute group. There was a significant improvement in cardiovascular fitness for both groups representing a 22% improvement in the 3 x 10 minute group (27.2 to 33.2 ml kg min), and a 25% improvement in the 30 minute group (27.5 to 34.4 ml -kg min). No significant difference was shown in the degree of improvement in cardiovascular fitness over six weeks of training for subjects of either low or moderate initial aerobic fitness. Grip strength showed no significant changes over time for either the young-aged (19-35 years) or middle-aged (36-54 years) groups. Leg strength showed a trend for improvement (p=0.093) in the young-aged group (63.5kg to 71.9kg) and middle-aged group (69.3kg to 85.8kg). Neck rotation flexibility improved a similar amount in both the young and middle aged groups representing an improvement of 9.9° and 8.0° respectively. There was significant improvement in two of the four measures of wrist flexibility. Hip and spine flexibility was significantly greater in the young-aged group compared to the middle-aged group (38.5cm and 30.7cm, respectively). There was a significant improvement in hip and spine flexibility over the six week training program representing an increase in reach of 6.5cm for the young age group and 4.9cm for the older group. The middle-aged subjects had significantly lower cardiovascular fitness than their younger peers, scoring 22.8 and 30.7 ml -kg min, respectively. Cardiovascular fitness improved a similar amount in both age groups representing a significant improvement of 23.8% and 28.1% for the younger-aged and middle-aged subjects, respectively. The findings of this study suggest that short bouts of exercise may be equally as effective as longer bouts of exercise for improving the flexibility and cardiovascular components of functional physical fitness in sedentary young and middle aged women. Additionally short bouts of exercise may be more attractive than longer bouts of exercise for the beginning exerciser as they may more easily fit into the busy lifestyle encountered by many people in today's society. Sedentary young and middle-aged women should benefit from static flexibility exercises designed to improve and/or maintain functional flexibility and thus maintain mobility and reduce the incidence of muscular injury. Regular, brisk walking, incorporating some stair climbing, is likely to be beneficial in improving cardiovascular health and perhaps also in improving leg strength, thereby helping to improve and maintain functional physical fitness for both young and middle-aged sedentary women.

Media reports of heroin overdose spates: public health messages, moral panics or risk advertisements?

This article reports on an investigation of the public health utility of media messages concerning spates (temporal clusters) of heroin-related overdose (HOD) from the perspective of some injecting drug users (IDUs). In-depth qualitative interviews were carried out with a convenience sample of 60 IDUs, in the setting of two Needle and Syringe Programs in an Australian regional city (Geelong) between April and May 2000. Very few interviewees reported that they had personally experienced a spate of overdoses. None of the interviewees reported communicating the existence of a killer batch to other IDUs. No interviewees reported having changed either their injecting practices or the amount of heroin they used following such a media alert. Indeed, a substantial minority of the interviewees reported seeking out these stronger batches and participant narratives illustrate that, for a substantial group of interviewees, the media reporting of a hypothetical 'killer batch' of heroin may have implications for their drug-seeking and health-related behaviour. It was found that the accuracy of information available to IDUs is mixed and that the flow of information within this social network was slow. Findings demonstrate that media reporting of killer batches of heroin has little value as a public health strategy and provide an example of how some activities that are proposed as public health measures may in fact have the opposite effect.

Performance evaluation and improved risk control philosophies for drinking water systems

World-wide, water is the single most used substance by humans every day. Water is also the major cause of illness and death in many countries including the affluent nations. Through this research, new risk control philosophies from catchment to consumers are highlighted. This thesis is about identifying the hazards, evaluating the risks and implementing controls to protect public health from drinking water.

Relationships between measures of fitness, physical activity, body composition and vascular function in children

Background : The prevalence of obesity and physical inactivity in Western countries has increased rapidly. Both are modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Atherosclerosis begins in childhood and endothelial dysfunction is its earliest detectable manifestation.

Methods : We assessed flow-mediated dilation (FMD) in 129 children (75 female; 10.3 + 0.3 yrs; 54 male; 10.4; 0.3 yrs). FMD was normalised for differences in the eliciting shear rate stimulus between subjects (SR_AUC). Fitness was assessed as peak oxygen uptake during an incremental treadmill exercise test (VO₂peak). Body composition was measured using a dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) scan. Physical activity (PA) was assessed using Actigraph accelerometers. The cohort was split into tertiles according to FMD% and also FMD% corrected for SR_AUC to gain insight into the determinants of vascular function.

Results : Across the cohort, significant correlations were observed between FMD%/SR_AUC and DEXA percentage fat (r = −0.23, p = 0.009) and percentage lean mass (r = 0.21, p = 0.008), and also with PA performed at moderate-to-high intensity (r = 0.363, p = 0.001). For children in the lowest FMD%/SR_AUC tertile, a stronger relationship with all PA measures was observed, particularly with high intensity PA (r = 0.572, P = 0.003). Regression analysis revealed that high intensity PA was the only predictor of impaired FMD%/SR_AUC.

Conclusions : These data suggest that traditional risk factors for CHD in adult populations impact upon vascular function in young people. Furthermore, it appears that individuals with impaired FMD may benefit from performing high intensity PA, whereas no relationships exist between FMD and lower intensities of PA or between PA and FMD in those subjects who possess preserved vascular function a priori.