The 1990's property cycle in Hainan

The continuous debate between the radical and the conservative approaches on which one is more suitable for a successful economic transition seems to be in favour of the latter. With the recent upswing in the property market in Hainan, the review of the 1990s property cycle in Hainan is linked with economic transition in China. A case study approach is used to establish the importance of the 1990s Hainan property cycle to the formation process of the Chinese property market system. The analytical framework is an integration of the theories of property cycles and economic transition, using the conceptual model of typical commercial property markets modified according to the historical settings in Hainan. It is found that the 1990s Hainan property cycle is unique in that the economic transition has been the key driving force. The structural imbalance caused by the equally imbalanced reform process in different sectors in Hainan has been proved an unsuccessful practice. By and large, the 1990s cycle in Hainan lasted for about 10 years and was state-driven. It was considered an experiment conducted by the state in testing the radical approach of economic transition in the property and urban land sectors. It is suggested that current knowledge of emerging commercial property markets, especially their cyclical behaviour, is limited at both theoretical and empirical levels. Evidence from the past 15 years seems to suggest that the structural and investment imbalance in the economic transition was the main cause of the high volatility in the Hainan property market in the 1990s. The emergence of a commercial property market seems to require choosing the right places to start reform with great caution on investment structure and the fundame ntals of the real economy. Eventually, it is essential to adopt a systematic view to assess and to make decision in the process of emergence of property cycles, based on the basic demand and supply patterns in a city’s transitional economy.

Economic transition and commercial property cycles in China

Drawn from a recently completed study, this paper aims at a better understanding of commercial property cycles in the transitional economy of China. It examines the behaviour of the property submarket system in China and considers structural changes in the socio-economic system as a primary factor in addressing the research problem. The study suggests that the underlying social and economic structure has greatly determined market behaviour. It finds that radical changes can alter the formal structure (the designed structure) of the market system, including the property market structure, but cannot alter the informal structure (i.e. the emergent structure) at the similar rate. As the study shows, cycles in the commercial property market in the economic transition is largely a key resulting feature of the continuous structural change both at formal and informal levels in a way that is often imbalanced and not always consistently changing together. The same situation also applies to the transformation of inner-city built form, which is featured by a delayed change of physical building stock against the space demand trend that is underpinned by the socio-economic transition. Put simply, there is a supply lag, mainly in the form of changing land use and building stock replacement, against economic change (the business cycle). This affects the level of effective demand for office space and hence becomes a major force in shaping current office cycles.

Crime rates, male youth unemployment and real income in Australia: evidence from Granger causality tests

This article applies Granger causality tests to examine the relationship between seven different categories of property crime and violent crime against the person, male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings in Australia from 1964 to 2001 within a cointegration and vector error correction framework. It is found that fraud, homicide and motor vehicle theft are cointegrated with male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings. However, there is no evidence of a long-run relationship between either break and enter, robbery, serious assault or stealing with male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings.

Can virtual world property be considered a digital good?

What types of goods should be considered digital goods? This paper discusses the question of whether virtual property, such as items available in virtual world environments like Linden Lab’s Second Life and Blizzard’s World of Warcraft, should be considered a valid digital good. The makeup of a virtual property items are explored in this paper and their key features compared and contrasted with that of digital goods. Common examples of digital goods include: electronic books, software, digital music and digital movies. These goods are considered a tangible commodity, that is they have an unlimited supply and secondly they are in a digital/binary form (a sequence of 1’s and 0s’). When looking at why a virtual property items should be included in the category of ‘digital goods’, it is important to consider how items in a virtual world come to exist and how the availability of these items are often controlled by publishers and developers. The aim of this paper is show that digital goods should not be limited to the traditional views such as electronic books, software, music and movies; but in fact the term ‘digital good’ should also include the active market of virtual property
items.

A multidiscipline approach to governing virtual property theft in virtual worlds

The crime of virtual property theft has become a serious problem in virtual worlds in recent years. Players of these games are repeatedly falling victim to this crime, with little or no repercussion for the offender. Virtual property often has a substantial real world monetary value and the theft of such items impacts greatly on victims. The problem of virtual property theft is complex, involving many legal, regulatory and technological factors. As such, trying to address this problem in a single dimension is not sufficient, each factor need to be addressed with a multidisciplinary approach. In addressing this problem, this paper provides a model for describing the issue of virtual property trading and the issues associated with virtual property theft. The paper also proposes an approach for handling virtual property theft based on improvements to laws related to virtual property and theft, improvements to the virtual world software components and better regulation from governments.

Virtual property theft detection framework

 The issue of virtual property theft in virtual worlds is a serious problem which has ramifications in both the real and virtual world. Virtual world users invest a considerable amount of time, effort and often money to collect virtual property items, only to have them stolen by thieves. Many virtual property thefts go undetected, with thieves often stealing virtual property items without resistance, leaving victims to discover the theft only after it has occurred. This paper presents the design of a detection framework that uses an algorithm for identifying virtual property theft at two key stages: account intrusion and unauthorized virtual property trades. Initial tests of this framework on a synthetic data set show an 80% detection rate with no false positives. This framework can allow virtual world developers to tailor and extend it to suit their specific virtual world software and provide an effective way of detecting virtual property theft while being a low maintenance, user friendly and cost effective.

Optimization of gaussian fuzzy membership functions and evaluation of the monotonicity property of fuzzy inference systems

In this paper, two issues relating to modeling of a monotonicity-preserving Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) are examined. The first is on designing or tuning of Gaussian Membership Functions (MFs) for a monotonic FIS. Designing Gaussian MFs for an FIS is difficult because of its spreading and curvature characteristics. In this study, the sufficient conditions are exploited, and the procedure of designing Gaussian MFs is formulated as a constrained optimization problem. The second issue is on the testing procedure for a monotonic FIS. As such, a testing procedure for a monotonic FIS model is proposed. Applicability of the proposed approach is demonstrated with a real world industrial application, i.e., Failure Mode and Effect Analysis. The results obtained are analysis and discussed. The outcomes show that the proposed approach is useful in designing a monotonicity-preserving FIS model.

Direct versus search engine traffic : an innovative approach to demand analysis in the property market

Purpose – The application of “Google” econometrics (Geco) has evolved rapidly in recent years and can be applied in various fields of research. Based on accepted theories in existing economic literature, this paper seeks to contribute to the innovative use of research on Google search query data to provide a new innovative to property research.

Design/methodology/approach – In this study, existing data from Google Insights for Search (GI4S) is extended into a new potential source of consumer sentiment data based on visits to a commonly-used UK online real-estate agent platform (Rightmove.co.uk). In order to contribute to knowledge about the use of Geco's black box, namely the unknown sampling population and the specific search queries influencing the variables, the GI4S series are compared to direct web navigation.

Findings – The main finding from this study is that GI4S data produce immediate real-time results with a high level of reliability in explaining the future volume of transactions and house prices in comparison to the direct website data. Furthermore, the results reveal that the number of visits to Rightmove.co.uk is driven by GI4S data and vice versa, and indeed without a contemporaneous relationship.

Originality/value – This study contributes to the new emerging and innovative field of research involving search engine data. It also contributes to the knowledge base about the increasing use of online consumer data in economic research in property markets.

Competency expectations for property professionals in Australia

Purpose – The aim of this paper is to identify the competency expectations for property
professionals in Australia. It further discusses differences in competency expectations between property professionals who have different professional backgrounds, such as valuers or non-valuers, and property professionals who work in different sectors or different-sized companies and who have differing amounts of experience. The competencies identified in this paper include knowledge areas, skills and attributes.

Design/methodology/approach – This paper presents the research findings of a questionnaire survey sent to Australian Property Institute members, which aimed to gather Australian property professionals’ views on the knowledge, skills and attributes required to perform their roles effectively.  The percentage of the respondents who provided different choices of given answers for each of the 31 knowledge areas, 20 skills and 21 attributes was identified and discussed. The professional backgrounds of the respondents were also identified to see whether these impact on competency expectations for property professionals. Content analysis was used to analyse written comments collected in the questionnaire.

Findings – The most important categories of knowledge, skill and attribute for Australian property professionals are valuation, effective written communication and practical experience, respectively.  The least important are international real estate, second language and creativity. Knowledge of rural valuation is very important in Australia, although this has not been mentioned in previous studies.  Professional backgrounds have a large influence on Australian property professionals’ views on knowledge requirements, but less so on skills and attributes.

Practical implications – The findings of this paper can be used as guidance for property professionals in their professional development plan. In addition, property course providers can use the research findings of this paper to inform their curriculum development and redesign.

Originality/value – This project is the first to identify the comprehensive competency expectations of property professionals as a whole in Australia. At the same time, it identifies differences in the competency expectations of property professionals who have different professional backgrounds.  Similar types of study have been conducted in the UK, the USA, Hong Kong and New Zealand but not yet in Australia. An understanding of the knowledge, skills and attributes required for property professionals is important for continuing professional development, curriculum development and the redesign of relevant property courses in order to maintain performance and competitiveness in the property sector.

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