Short-term load and wind power forecasting using neural network-based prediction intervals

Electrical power systems are evolving from today's centralized bulk systems to more decentralized systems. Penetrations of renewable energies, such as wind and solar power, significantly increase the level of uncertainty in power systems. Accurate load forecasting becomes more complex, yet more important for management of power systems. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in system operations. To quantify potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for the construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly introduced method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied and extended to develop PIs using NN models. A new problem formulation is proposed, which translates the primary multiobjective problem into a constrained single-objective problem. Compared with the cost function, this new formulation is closer to the primary problem and has fewer parameters. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Electrical demands from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia), as well as wind power generation from Capital Wind Farm, are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Comparative results show that the proposed method can construct higher quality PIs for load and wind power generation forecasts in a short time.

Characteristics and applications of energy storage system to power network - A review

Maintaining reliability and stability of a power systems in transmission and distribution level becomes a big challenge in present scenario. Grid operators are always responsible to maintain equilibrium between available power generation and demand of end users. Maintaining grid balance is a bigger issue, in case of any unexpected generation shortage or grid disturbance or integration of any renewable energy sources like wind and solar power in the energy mix. In order to compensate such imbalance and to facilitate more renewable energy sources with the grid, energy storage system (ESS) started to be playing an important role with the advancement of the state of the art technology. ESS can also help to get reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission by means of integrating more renewable energy sources to the grid. There are various types of Energy Storage (ES) technologies which are being used in power systems network from large scale (above 50MW) to small scale (up to 100KW). Based on the characteristics, each storage technology has their own merits and demerits. This paper carried out extensive review study and verifies merits and demerits of each storage technology and identifies the suitable technology for the future. This paper also has conducted feasibility study with the aid of E-SelectTM tool for various ES technologies in applications point of view at different grid locations. This review study helps to evaluate feasible ES technology for a particular electrical application and also helps to develop smart hybrid storage system for grid applications in efficient way.

Potentialities of renewable energy in Victoria, Australia

In utility power system, electricity demand is being covered largely by fossil fueled power generation, which contributes high level of GHG (greenhouse gas) emission and causes global warming worldwide. In order to reduce GHG emission level, most of the countries in the world targeting towards green energy that is power generation from RE (renewable energy) sources. In this paper, it is considered to study prospects of RE sources in particular, solar and wind in Victoria State which are abundant as compared to other sources of renewable. The wind and solar energy feasibility study and sensitivity analysis has been done for Victoria with the aid of HOMER (hybrid optimization model of electric renewable) simulation software. From the study, it has clearly evicted that wind energy combinational HPS (hybrid power system) has more contribution, and high potential than solar PV (photovoltaic) systems for a particular location. This study also investigates the influences of energy storage in the proposed HPS.

An optimized mean variance estimation method for uncertainty quantification of wind power forecasts

A statistical optimized technique for rapid development of reliable prediction intervals (PIs) is presented in this study. The mean-variance estimation (MVE) technique is employed here for quantification of uncertainties related with wind power predictions. In this method, two separate neural network models are used for estimation of wind power generation and its variance. A novel PI-based training algorithm is also presented to enhance the performance of the MVE method and improve the quality of PIs. For an in-depth analysis, comprehensive experiments are conducted with seasonal datasets taken from three geographically dispersed wind farms in Australia. Five confidence levels of PIs are between 50% and 90%. Obtained results show while both traditional and optimized PIs are hypothetically valid, the optimized PIs are much more informative than the traditional MVE PIs. The informativeness of these PIs paves the way for their application in trouble-free operation and smooth integration of wind farms into energy systems. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A novel fuzzy multi-objective framework to construct optimal prediction intervals for wind power forecast

The forecasting behavior of the high volatile and unpredictable wind power energy has always been a challenging issue in the power engineering area. In this regard, this paper proposes a new multi-objective framework based on fuzzy idea to construct optimal prediction intervals (Pis) to forecast wind power generation more sufficiently. The proposed method makes it possible to satisfy both the PI coverage probability (PICP) and PI normalized average width (PINAW), simultaneously. In order to model the stochastic and nonlinear behavior of the wind power samples, the idea of lower upper bound estimation (LUBE) method is used here. Regarding the optimization tool, an improved version of particle swam optimization (PSO) is proposed. In order to see the feasibility and satisfying performance of the proposed method, the practical data of a wind farm in Australia is used as the case study.

A novel distributed algorithm for power loss minimizing in Smart Grid

Because power generation of renewable resources are unstable and demands of the customers are time-varying, the supply power and demands of the customers are always unequal. To meet the demands of the customers, power is transmitted from primary power generation to secondary power generation. It will cause high power loss. To solve this problem, a distributed algorithm is proposed in this paper. By using the algorithm, the micro-grids are able to exchange power with their neighbors so as to minimize the total power losses of the smart grid. Moreover, communication overhead (bandwidth) is reduced, comparing with centralized algorithm. Through computer simulations, we demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can lead to near-optimal result for alleviating the average power loss per micro-grid and reduce the communication overhead significantly in contrast with the centralized approach.

A new fuzzy-based combined prediction interval for wind power forecasting

This paper makes use of the idea of prediction intervals (PIs) to capture the uncertainty associated with wind power generation in power systems. Since the forecasting errors cannot be appropriately modeled using distribution probability functions, here we employ a powerful nonparametric approach called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE) method to construct the PIs. The proposed LUBE method uses a new framework based on a combination of PIs to overcome the performance instability of neural networks (NNs) used in the LUBE method. Also, a new fuzzy-based cost function is proposed with the purpose of having more freedom and flexibility in adjusting NN parameters used for construction of PIs. In comparison with the other cost functions in the literature, this new formulation allows the decision-makers to apply their preferences for satisfying the PI coverage probability and PI normalized average width individually. As the optimization tool, bat algorithm with a new modification is introduced to solve the problem. The feasibility and satisfying performance of the proposed method are examined using datasets taken from different wind farms in Australia.

Performance analysis of a grid-connected PV system in LV distribution network

Over the past decade, the growing demand of Grid-connected photo voltaic (GCPV) system has been increasing due to an extensive use of renewable energy technologies for sustainable power generation and distribution. High-penetrated GCPV systems enhance the operation of the network by improving the voltage levels and reducing the active power losses along the length of the feeder. This paper aims to investigate the voltage variations and Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) of a typical GCPV system modelled in Power system simulator, PSS SINCAL with the change of level of PV integrations in a Low Voltage (LV) distribution network. Five different case studies are considered to investigate the impact of PV integrations on LV nodes and the corresponding voltage variations and harmonics. In addition, this paper also explores and benchmarks the voltage improvement techniques by implementing On Load Tap Changer (OLTC) with respective to the main transformer and addition of Shunt Capacitor (SC) at appropriate node points in LV network,

State of the art artificial intelligence-based MPPT techniques for mitigating partial shading effects on PV systems - a review

Given the considerable recent attention to distributed power generation and interest in sustainable energy, the integration of photovoltaic (PV) systems to grid-connected or isolated microgrids has become widespread. In order to maximize power output of PV system extensive research into control strategies for maximum power point tracking (MPPT) methods has been conducted. According to the robust, reliable, and fast performance of artificial intelligence-based MPPT methods, these approaches have been applied recently to various systems under different conditions. Given the diversity of recent advances to MPPT approaches a review focusing on the performance and reliability of these methods under diverse conditions is required. This paper reviews AI-based techniques proven to be effective and feasible to implement and very common in literature for MPPT, including their limitations and advantages. In order to support researchers in application of the reviewed techniques this study is not limited to reviewing the performance of recently adopted methods, rather discusses the background theory, application to MPPT systems, and important references relating to each method. It is envisioned that this review can be a valuable resource for researchers and engineers working with PV-based power systems to be able to access the basic theory behind each method, select the appropriate method according to project requirements, and implement MPPT systems to fulfill project objectives.

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A mutation-based evolving neural network model and its application to condition monitoring

Data analysis using intelligent systems is a key solution to many industrial problems. In this paper, a mutation-based evolving artificial neural network, which is based on an integration of the Fuzzy ARTMAP (FAM) neural network and evolutionary programming (EP), is proposed. The proposed FAMEP model is applied to detect and classify possible faults from a number of sensory signals of a circulating water system in a power generation plant. The efficiency of FAM-EP is assessed and compared with that of the original FAM network in terms of classification accuracy as well as network complexity. In addition, the bootstrap method is used to quantify the performance statistically. The results positively demonstrate the usefulness of FAM-EP in tackling data classification problems.

Condition monitoring and fault prediction via an adaptive neural network

This paper describes the application of an adaptive neural network, called Fuzzy ARTMAP (FAM), to handle fault prediction and condition monitoring problems in a power generation station. The FAM network, which is supplemented with a pruning algorithm, is used as a classifier to predict different machine conditions, in an off-line learning mode. The process under scrutiny in the power plant is the Circulating Water (CW) system, with prime attention to monitoring the heat transfer efficiency of the condensers. Several phases of experiments were conducted to investigate the `optimum' setting of a set of parameters of the FAM classifier for monitoring heat transfer conditions in the power plant.

An adaptive fuzzy min-max conflict-resolving classifier

This paper describes a novel adaptive network, which agglomerates a procedure based on the fuzzy min-max clustering method, a supervised ART (Adaptive Resonance Theory) neural network, and a constructive conflict-resolving algorithm, for pattern classification. The proposed classifier is a fusion of the ordering algorithm, Fuzzy ARTMAP (FAM) and the Dynamic Decay Adjustment (DDA) algorithm. The network, called Ordered FAMDDA, inherits the benefits of the trio, viz . an ability to identify a fixed order of training pattern presentation for good generalisation; stable and incrementally learning architecture; and dynamic width adjustment of the weights of hidden nodes of conflicting classes. Classification performance of the Ordered FAMDDA is assessed using two benchmark datasets. The performances are analysed and compared with those from FAM and Ordered FAM. The results indicate that the Ordered FAMDDA classifier performs at least as good as the mentioned networks. The proposed Ordered FAMDDA network is then applied to a condition monitoring problem in a power generation station. The process under scrutiny is the Circulating Water (CW) system, with prime attention to condition monitoring of the heat transfer efficiency of the condensers. The results and their implications are analysed and discussed.

A cascade genetic algorithm and particle swarm approach for solving unit commitment and economic dispatch problems

Positive Unit commitment and economic dispatch are two important decisions in thermal power generation scheduling. The tasks involve determination and allocation of power generation to thermal units that minimize the total power generation cost and satisfy the production constraints.This paper presents a cascade Genetic Algorithm and Particle Swarm Optimization (GA-PSO) approach for solving thermal power generation scheduling based on a layered matrix encoding structure.The proposed hybrid method is compared to layered matrix encoding GA using the thermal power generation problem given in Williams [1] to demonstrate its effectiveness in generating an optimal, cost-effective power generation schedule.The results showed that cascade GA-PSO outperformed the layered matrix encoding GA in minimizing the total power production cost for unit commitment and power dispatch problems.