Savings behaviour in Fiji : an empirical assessment using the ARDL approach to cointegration

Purpose – This paper aims to delineate the short- and long-run relationships between savings, real interest rate, income, current account deficits (CADs) and age dependency ratio in Fiji using cointegration and error correction models over the period 1968-2000.

Design/methodology/approach – The recently developed bounds testing approach to cointegration is used, which is applicable irrespective of whether the underlying variables are integrated of order one or order zero. Given the small sample size in this study, appropriate critical values were extracted from Narayan. To estimate the short- and long-run elasticities, the autoregressive distributed-lag model is used.

Findings – In the short- and long-run: a 1 per cent increase in growth rate increases savings by over 0.07 and 0.5 per cent, respectively; a 1 per cent increase in the CAD reduces savings rate by 0.01 and 0.02 per cent, respectively; and the negative coefficient on the real interest rate implies that the income effect dominates the substitution effect, while in the short-run the total effect of the real interest rate is positive, implying that the substitution effect dominates the income effect.

Originality/value – This paper makes the first attempt at estimating the savings function for the Fiji Islands. Given that Fiji's capital market is poorly developed, the empirical findings here have direct policy relevance.

Identifying linkages between generations and the property market : the effect on residential and retail property

In the analysis of property markets, especially the retail and residential sectors, increasing importance is being given to the role of demography. The impact of economic influences such as interest rate movements, inflation and changes in the labour market are well documented and although these variables are clearly important. they do not incorporate the changing characteristics of the local inhabitants who actually generate the demand. However, demography can provide an invaluable insight into retail and residential property trends, especially over the long term, and are assisted by reliable population datasets with a relatively high level of detail. For example, the emergence of the 'baby boom' generation and the trend towards geographical relocation had a substantial effect on demand for retail and housing products, although little consideration has been given to the effect from the subsequent cohorts, namely generations X,Y and Z. This paper examines the role of demography when researching property markets, with the focus placed on demographic shifts. It discusses trends in arange of demographic variables that have been observed in society. In addition, it highlights linkages with property markets, especially residential and retail property, and draws inferences for long term trends.The study concludes that when conducting research into property markets. it is essential to have a thorough understanding of various demographic variables to predict how they affect demand. An appreciation of the drivers behind generations will assist property researchers to identify future needs, and the subsequent effect this will have on community development involving retail and residential property.

Identifying linkages between generations and community development: the effect on residential and retail property

In the analysis of property markets, especially the retail and residential sectors, increasing importance is being given to the role of demography. The impact of economic influences such as interest rate movements, inflation and changes in the labour market are well documented and although these variables are clearly important, they do not incorporate the changing characteristics of the local inhabitants who actually provide the demand. However, demography can provide an invaluable insight into retail and residential property trends, especially over the long term, and are assisted by reliable population datasets with a relatively high level of detail. For example, the emergence of the 'baby boom' generation shift had a substantial effect on demand for retail and housing products, although little consideration has been given to the effect from the subsequent cohorts, namely generations X, Y and Z.

This paper examines the role of demography when researching property markets, with the focus placed on demographic shifts. It discusses trends in a range of demographic variables that have been observed in society. In addition, it highlights linkages with property markets, especially residential and retail property, and draws inferences for long term trends. The study concludes that when conducting research into property markets, it is essential to have a thorough understanding of various demographic variables to predict how they affect demand. An appreciation of the drivers behind generations will assist property researchers to identify future needs, and the subsequent effect this will have on community development involving retail and residential property.

Modelling money demand for a panel of eight transitional economies

In this article, we estimate money demand functions for a panel of eight transitional economies, using quarterly data for the period 1995:01 1995 to 2005:03. We find that real M1 and real M2 and their determinants, namely real income and short-term domestic interest rate, are cointegrated, both for individual countries as well as for the panel. Long-run elasticities suggest that consistent with theory, real income positively and nominal interest rate negatively impact real money demand. Our test for panel Granger causality suggests short-run bidirectional causality between M1 and M2 and their determinants. Finally, our tests for stability of the money demand functions reveal more cases of unstable money demand functions when M2 is used as a proxy for money demand.

Does monetary policy matter in a less developed economy? Evidence from Bangladesh

This paper explores the role of monetary policy in the context of a less developed economy. Monetary transmission mechanisms in less developed economies can be quite different from an industrialized economy, as unlike industrialized countries, these economies are characterized by the small size of organized financial markets, limited substitutability between money and other assets and weak fiscal and monetary institutions. We utilize the Structural VAR approach to analyze the monetary transmission process and impacts of monetary policy on different macro variables in Bangladesh. Monetary policy shocks are identified using non-recursive contemporaneous restrictions, which are based on the Central Bank's reaction function and the structure of the economy. We found strong evidence for the interest rate channel of monetary policy in Bangladesh. Our findings indicate that monetary policy shocks are important sources of fluctuations in the rate of interest, output and prices. Expansionary monetary policies are found to be harmful for achieving price stability in Bangladesh, as they not only increase the prices permanently, but also make the price level more volatile. We also found the evidence of a long lasting effect of monetary policy on output, which suggests that contractionary policy measures may create sustained recession in Bangladesh.

The underpricing of US REIT IPOs : 1996–2010

This study examines the underpricing cost of 123 US REIT IPOs over the period 1996 until June 2010, including the period of the global financial crisis. The study uses OLS multivariate regression to determine some potential factors behind underpricing. The underpricing cost of raising REIT external equity averaged 3.18% using an equal weighting for each of the 123 REIT IPOs. The study finds offer size is positively related to underpricing. A value weighted approach finds that underpricing averages 4.67% and suggests larger offer size is an important determinant for leaving more money on the table. Higher reputation underwriters, the industry differentiated auditor and post offer ownership structure negatively influence underpricing. The study documents declining underpricing over time with the period of 2007–2010 experiencing negative underpricing (overpricing) during the global financial crisis (GFC). Offers during the hot periods of 1997 and 2004 and the office/industrial property type were more highly underpriced. The 10-year treasury interest rate is identified as another significant positive determinant of underpricing.

Volatility transmission between stock and bond markets : evidence from US and Australia

This paper investigates the cross-market informational dependence between these assets under disparate interest rate conditions of the U.S and Australia. With conditional variance as a proxy for volatility, we use the BEKK – a matricular decomposition of the bivariate GARCH (1,1) model to examine the cross-market contemporaneous effect of information arrival. Applying the model to the stock and bond indices of both countries, we find evidence of volatility spillover, thereby supporting the notion of informational dependence between each market

An analysis of Fiji's monetary policy transmission

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the monetary policy transmission mechanism for the Fiji Islands using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model for the period 1975 to 2005.

Design/methodology/approach – The SVAR model investigates how a monetary policy shock – defined as a temporary and exogenous rise in the short-term interest rate – affects real and nominal macro variables; namely real output, prices, exchange rates, and money supply.

Findings – The results suggest that a monetary policy shock statistically significantly reduces output initially, but then output is able to recover to its pre-shock level. A monetary policy shock generates inflationary pressure, leads to an appreciation of the Fijian currency and reduces the demand for money. The paper also analysed the impact of a nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) shock (an appreciation) on real output and found that it leads to a statistically significant negative effect on real output.

Practical implications – The findings of this study should be of direct relevance to the research and policy work undertaken at the Reserve Bank of Fiji.

Originality/value – For a small economy, such as Fiji, where monetary policy is key to sustainable macroeconomic management, this is the first paper that undertakes a dynamic analysis of monetary policy transmission. The paper uses time series data over three decades and builds a structural VAR model, rooted in theory. This paper will be of direct relevance to the Reserve Bank of Fiji. The approach and model proposed will also be useful for applied monetary policy researchers in other developing countries where inflation rate targeting is a key element of the monetary policy setting.

Is it really good to annuitize?

Although rational consumers without bequest motives are better off investing exclusively with annuitized instruments in partial equilibrium, we demonstrate the welfare effect of annuitization is ambiguous in general equilibrium on account of pecuniary externalities. Absent institutional constraints like prices and budgets, the optimal consumption rule would have marginal utility increase at the preferential discount rate. In a rational competitive equilibrium where households fully annuitize, the growth rate of marginal utility will be the discount rate minus the interest rate, resulting in a consumption profile that is too flat. Accidental bequests transfer wealth from the old to the young, steepening the consumption profile and yielding a better equilibrium. If households are restricted to Keynesian consumption functions, the optimal irrational equilibrium with standard preferences can replicate observed consumption and macroeconomic behavior, and the equilibrium without annuities delivers higher utility than the equilibrium with annuities. Whereas preceding papers have merely hypothesized that households might engage in socially optimal, yet irrational behavior, the failure of households to annuitize is a real-world example of this. Policymakers should not take steps to encourage more annuitization by the public.

The shadow economy as an equilibrium outcome

We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model of tax evasion where agents choose to report some of their income. Unreported income requires using a payment method that avoids recordkeeping in some markets-cash. Trade using cash to avoid taxes is the 'shadow economy' in our model. We then calibrate our model using money, interest rate and GDP data to back out the size of the shadow economy for a sample of countries and compare our measures to traditional reduced form estimates. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.

Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect

Most empirical evidence suggests that the Fisher effect, stating that inflation and nominal interest rates should cointegrate with a unit slope on inflation, does not hold, a finding at odds with many theoretical models. This paper argues that these results can be attributed in part to the low power of univariate tests, and that the use of panel data can generate more powerful tests. For this purpose, we propose two new panel cointegration tests that can be applied under very general conditions, and that are shown by simulation to be more powerful than other existing tests. These tests are applied to a panel of quarterly data covering 20 OECD countries between 1980 and 2004. The evidence suggest that the Fisher effect cannot be rejected once the panel evidence on cointegration has been taken into account. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

It's the economy : the effect of macroeconomic variables of the rate of suicide

Background. There are a large number of factors mediating suicide. Many studies have searched for a direct causal relationship between economic hardship and suicide, however, findings have been varied.

Method. Suicide data was obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the period between January 1968 and August 2002. These were correlated with a suite of macroeconomic data including housing loan interest rates, unemployment rates, days lost to industrial disputes, Consumer Price Index, gross domestic product, and the Consumer Sentiment Index.

Results. A total of 51 845 males and 16 327 females committed suicide between these dates. There were significant associations between suicide rates and eleven macroeconomic indicators for both genders in at least one age range. Data was divided into male and female and five age ranges and pooled ages. Analyses were conducted on these 132 datasets resulting in 80 significant findings. The data was generally stronger for indices measuring economic performance than indices measuring consumers’ perceptions of the state of the economy. A striking difference between male and female trends was seen. Generally, male suicide rates increased with markers of economic adversity, while the opposite pattern was seen in females. There were significantly different patterns in age-stratified data, with for example higher housing loan interest rates having a positive association with suicide in younger people and a negative association in older age groups.

Conclusion. Macroeconomic trends are significantly associated with suicide. The patterns in males and females are very different, and there are further substantial age-related differences.

Mild and cost-effective synthesis of iron fluoride-graphene nanocomposites for high-rate Li-ion battery cathodes

Exploring high performance cathode materials is essential to realize the adoption of Li-ion batteries for application in electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles. FeF3, as a typical iron-based fluoride, has been attracting considerable interest due to both the high electromotive force value of 2.7 V and the high theoretical capacity of 237 mA h g_1 (1e_ transfer). In this study, we report a facile lowtemperature solution phase approach for synthesis of uniform iron fluoride nanocrystals on reduced graphene sheets stably suspended in ethanol solution. The resulting hybrid of iron fluoride nanocrystals and graphene sheets showed high specific capacity and high rate performance for iron fluoride type cathode materials. High stable specific capacity of about 210 mA h g_1 at a current density of 0.2 C was achieved, which is much higher than that of LiFePO4 cathode material. Notably, these iron fluoride/ nanocomposite cathode materials demonstrated superior rate capability, with discharge capacities of 176, 145 and 113 mA h g_1 at 1, 2 and 5 C, respectively.

Great 'app-eal' but not there yet: a review of iPhone nutrition applications relevant to child weight management

Aims: There is increasing interest in the use of smartphone applications (apps) for delivering child obesity management interventions and supporting lifestyle behaviour change; however, there has been very little academic research on their development. Our aim is to review nutrition-related apps designed for children currently available in Australia for their usefulness in education or support behavioural interventions for child obesity. Methods: Apps available for download in iTunes Australia between 2 April and 3 June 2013 which were suitable for children >12 years were identified. Key words were chosen to identify apps applicable to children, focusing on nutrition. Results: A total of 27 apps were included. Most apps (24/27) were not based on evidence-informed recommendations. A third of apps were developed in the USA (n = 10; 37%) and were free (67%), nine apps required upfront payment, with a mean cost of $A2.80 (range $A0.99-$A7.49). The most common nutrition features were the promotion of energy balance (n = 12 apps) and guidance on appropriate portion size (n = 15). The most common behaviour change feature was goal setting (n = 15). The five apps that scored most highly against the characteristics reviewed were: Calorie Counter Pro by My Net Diary, Weight Watchers, Swap It Don't Stop It, Control My Weight by CalorieKing and Rate What I Ate-Photo Diet Tracker. Conclusions: Very few apps were identified that could be used in education or support behavioural interventions for child obesity. There is a need to harness this technology and evaluate the applicability and use within childhood obesity research interventions.

Initial medication adherence-review and recommendations for good practices in outcomes research: an ISPOR medication adherence and persistence special interest group report

Background: Positive associations between medication adherence and beneficial outcomes primarily come from studying filling/consumption behaviors after therapy initiation. Few studies have focused on what happens before initiation, the point from prescribing to dispensing of an initial prescription. Objective: Our objective was to provide guidance and encourage high-quality research on the relationship between beneficial outcomes and initial medication adherence (IMA), the rate initially prescribed medication is dispensed. Methods: Using generic adherence terms, an international research panel identified IMA publications from 1966 to 2014. Their data sources were classified as to whether the primary source reflected the perspective of a prescriber, patient, or pharmacist or a combined perspective. Terminology and methodological differences were documented among core (essential elements of presented and unpresented prescribing events and claimed and unclaimed dispensing events regardless of setting), supplemental (refined for accuracy), and contextual (setting-specific) design parameters. Recommendations were made to encourage and guide future research. Results: The 45 IMA studies identified used multiple terms for IMA and operationalized measurements differently. Primary data sources reflecting a prescriber's and pharmacist's perspective potentially misclassified core parameters more often with shorter/nonexistent pre- and postperiods (1-14 days) than did a combined perspective. Only a few studies addressed supplemental issues, and minimal contextual information was provided. Conclusions: General recommendations are to use IMA as the standard nomenclature, rigorously identify all data sources, and delineate all design parameters. Specific methodological recommendations include providing convincing evidence that initial prescribing and dispensing events are identified, supplemental parameters incorporating perspective and substitution biases are addressed, and contextual parameters are included.