The implied convenience yield of precious metals: safe haven versus industrial usage

During a financial crisis, investors find it convenient to hold gold (Gd) as a safe haven. But during good economic times, manufacturing firms find it convenient to stockpile platinum (Pl), palladium (Pd) and especially silver (Si), for industrial usages. We have three related objectives. First, we examine the nature of cross-market interactions among the convenience yields (cy_it) of {Gd, Pl, Pd, Si}, which are implied from cost-of-carry relations. Second, we test if the more influential cy_it of certain precious metals are also affecting the return, volatility and/or volume dynamics of other precious metals. Third, we analyze if the cy_it of gold is enhanced (diluted) during (after) the Asian and Global financial crises. We find, consistent with our propositions, that during crisis period, gold’s cy_it provides incremental information to the volatility series of {Gd, Pl, Pd, Si}. But during good economic times, it is silver’s cy_it that has the most influence on the return series across {Gd, Pl, Pd, Si}. This is not surprising given that Si has the largest proportion of industrial usage among the four metals.

Three essays on stock returns and inflation - Australian evidence

Results of this thesis suggest that a significant negative relation between stock returns and inflation identified in Australia during ‘inflation targeting’ is mainly due to an incidence of ‘flight to safety’. Furthermore, the impact of inflation news on stock returns is industry-sector dependent. Specifically, in Australia rising inflation seems to be good news for Financials, but bad news for Materials.

Response of inflation to shocks: new evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries

In this paper, we investigate whether or not the inflation rate of 17 Sub-Saharan African countries can be modelled as a stationary process. We achieve this goal through using univariate and panel stationarity tests for data over the period 1966 to 2002. We use the Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (KPSS, 1992) univariate test and allow for multiple structural breaks. We find that except for Burkina Faso, Burundi and Gambia, the inflation rate is stationary for the rest of the 14 countries. We then apply the panel version of the KPSS test, developed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2005), which accounts for multiple structural breaks. We find strong evidence of panel stationarity of the inflation rate. However, for a panel consisting of Burkina Faso, Burundi and Gambia, we could not find evidence that the inflation rate is stationary. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Is there really a unit root in the inflation rate? More evidence from panel data models

Time series unit root evidence suggests that inflation is nonstationary. By contrast, when using more powerful panel unit root tests, Culver and Papell (1997) find that inflation is stationary. In this article, we test the robustness of this result by applying a battery of recent panel unit root tests. The results suggest that the stationarity of inflation holds even after controlling for cross-sectional dependence and structural change.

Inflation tax in the lab: a theoretical and experimental study of competitive search equilibrium with inflation

In this paper we measure the effect of the inflation tax on economic activity and welfare within a controlled setting.To do so,we develop a model of price posting and monetary exchange with inflation and finite populations.The model,which provides a game–theoreticfoundation to Rocheteau and Wright(2005)'s competitive search monetary equilibrium, is used to derive theoretical propositions regarding the effects of inflation in thisenvironment, which we test with a laboratory experiment that closely implements the theoretical framework.We find that the inflation tax is harmful – with cash holdings, production and welfare all falling as inflation rises – and that its effect is relatively larger at low inflation rates than at higher rates.For instance,for inflation rates between 0%and5%, welfare in the two markets we consider (2[seller] 2[buyer] and 3 2) falls by roughly 1 percent for each percentage–point rise in inflation, compared with 0.4 percent over the range from 5% to 30%.Our findings lead us to conclude that the impact of the inflation tax should not be underestimated, even under low inflation.

Credit quality implied momentum profits for Islamic stocks

Using a sample of Asia-Pacific Islamic stocks we show that momentum profits exist regardless of the credit quality of stocks. A portfolio of low credit quality stocks earns 4.68% per annum more than a portfolio of high credit quality stocks. Market risk factors explain all momentum profits, suggesting that profits are compensation for risks. Post-holding period analysis suggests strong evidence of return reversal, consistent with the behavioral hypothesis. Our main results are also robust to sub-samples of data characterized by the recent global financial crisis and to Islamic and non-Islamic based market risk factors.