A panel error correction approach to explore spatial correlation patterns of the dominant housing market in Australian capital cities

Purpose - A panel error correction model has been developed to investigate the spatial correlation patterns among house prices. This paper aims to identify a dominant housing market in the ripple down process. Design/methodology/approach - Seemingly unrelated regression estimators are adapted to deal with the contemporary correlations and heterogeneity across cities. Impulse response functions are subsequently implemented to simulate the spatial correlation patterns. The newly developed approach is then applied to the Australian capital city house price indices. Findings - The results suggest that Melbourne should be recognised as the dominant housing market. Four levels were classified within the Australian house price interconnections, namely: Melbourne; Adelaide, Canberra, Perth and Sydney; Brisbane and Hobart; and Darwin. Originality/value - This research develops a panel regression framework in addressing the spatial correlation patterns of house prices across cities. The ripple-down process of house price dynamics across cities was explored by capturing both the contemporary correlations and heterogeneity, and by identifying the dominant housing market.

Measurement error causes scale-dependent threshold erosion of biological signals in animal movement data

Recent advances in telemetry technology have created a wealth of tracking data available for many animal species moving over spatial scales from tens of meters to tens of thousands of kilometers. Increasingly, such data sets are being used for quantitative movement analyses aimed at extracting fundamental biological signals such as optimal searching behavior and scale-dependent foraging decisions. We show here that the location error inherent in various tracking technologies reduces the ability to detect patterns of behavior within movements. Our analyses endeavored to set out a series of initial ground rules for ecologists to help ensure that sampling noise is not misinterpreted as a real biological signal. We simulated animal movement tracks using specialized random walks known as Lévy flights at three spatial scales of investigation: 100-km, 10-km, and 1-km maximum daily step lengths. The locations generated in the simulations were then blurred using known error distributions associated with commonly applied tracking methods: the Global Positioning System (GPS), Argos polar-orbiting satellites, and light-level geolocation. Deviations from the idealized Lévy flight pattern were assessed for each track after incrementing levels of location error were applied at each spatial scale, with additional assessments of the effect of error on scale-dependent movement patterns measured using fractal mean dimension and first-passage time (FPT) analyses. The accuracy of parameter estimation (Lévy μ, fractal mean D, and variance in FPT) declined precipitously at threshold errors relative to each spatial scale. At 100-km maximum daily step lengths, error standard deviations of ≥10 km seriously eroded the biological patterns evident in the simulated tracks, with analogous thresholds at the 10-km and 1-km scales (error SD ≥ 1.3 km and 0.07 km, respectively). Temporal subsampling of the simulated tracks maintained some elements of the biological signals depending on error level and spatial scale. Failure to account for large errors relative to the scale of movement can produce substantial biases in the interpretation of movement patterns. This study provides researchers with a framework for understanding the limitations of their data and identifies how temporal subsampling can help to reduce the influence of spatial error on their conclusions.

Prevalence of visual impairment and uncorrected refractive error - report from a Canadian urban population-based study

The prevalence of visual impairment due to uncorrected refractive error has not been previously studied in Canada. A population-based study was conducted in Brantford, Ontario. The target population included all people 40 years of age and older. Study participants were selected using a randomized sampling strategy based on postal codes. Presenting distance and near visual acuities were measured with habitual spectacle correction, if any, in place. Best corrected visual acuities were determined for all participants who had a presenting distance visual acuity of less than 20/25. Population weighted prevalence of distance visual impairment (visual acuity <20/40 in the better eye) was 2.7% (n = 768, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8–4.0%) with 71.8% correctable by refraction. Population weighted prevalence of near visual impairment (visual acuity <20/40 with both eyes) was 2.2% (95% CI 1.4–3.6) with 69.1% correctable by refraction. Multivariable adjusted analysis showed that the odds of having distance visual impairment was independently associated with increased age (odds ratio, OR, 3.56, 95% CI 1.22–10.35; ≥65 years compared to those 39–64 years), and time since last eye examination (OR 4.93, 95% CI 1.19–20.32; ≥5 years compared to ≤2 years). The same factors appear to be associated with increased prevalence of near visual impairment but were not statistically significant. The majority of visual impairment found in Brantford was due to uncorrected refractive error. Factors that increased the prevalence of visual impairment were the same for distance and near visual acuity measurements.

Canadian uncorrected refractive error

Uncorrected refractive error is the leading cause of visual impairment in the world. In Canada there are potentially 2 million people with visual impairment that could be corrected by simply wearing glasses or contact lenses. This number will double in the next 20 years due to Canada’s rapidly ageing population. Visual impairment can seriously affect quality of life. People with vision problems are more likely to fall, have a higher risk of fractures and other injuries, and they may be more likely to limit or stop driving. Visual impairment is also an independent risk factor for increased mortality in older persons.

Market effects on forecasting construction prices using vector error correction models

Construction price forecasting is an essential component to facilitate decision-making for construction contractors, investors and related financial institutions. Construction economists are increasingly interested in seeking a more analytical method to forecast construction prices. Although many studies have focused on construction price modelling and forecasting, few have considered the impacts of large-scale economic events and seasonality. In this study, an advanced multivariate modelling technique, namely the vector correction (VEC) model with dummy variables, was employed. The impacts of global economic events and seasonality are factored into the model to forecast the construction price in the Australian construction market. Research findings suggest that both long-run and dynamic short-term causal relationships exist among the price and levels of supply and demand in the construction market. These relationships drive the construction price and supply and demand, which interact with one another as a loop system. The reliability of forecasting models was examined by the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the Theil's inequality coefficient U tests. The test results suggest that the conventional VEC model and the VEC model with dummy variable are both acceptable for forecasting the construction price, while the VEC model considering external impacts achieves higher prediction accuracy than the conventional VEC model. © 2014 © 2014 Taylor & Francis.

A new interpolation error expansion based reversible watermarking algorithm considering the human visual system

Reversible watermarking has merged over the past few years as a promising solution for copyright protection, especially for applications like remote sensing, medical imaging and military applications which require lossless recovery of the host media. In this paper, we aim to extend the additive interpolation error expansion technique in [16]. We will consider the human visual system (HVS) to improve the embedding rate while maintaining the image visual quality. To this end, the just noticeable difference (JND) is used to embed more watermark bits. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can improve the embedding rate while preserving the image visual quality. © 2014 IEEE.

A panel vector error correction approach to forecasting demand in regional construction markets

Reliable forecasting as to the level of aggregate demand for construction is of vital importance to developers, builders and policymakers. Previous construction demand forecasting studies mainly focused on temporal estimating using national aggregate data. The construction market can be better represented by a group of interconnected regions or local markets rather than a national aggregate, and yet regional forecasting techniques have rarely been applied. Furthermore, limited research has applied regional variations in construction markets to construction demand modelling and forecasting. A new comprehensive method is used, a panel vector error correction approach, to forecast regional construction demand using Australia’s state-level data. The links between regional construction demand and general economic indicators are investigated by panel cointegration and causality analysis. The empirical results suggest that both long-run and causal links are found between regional construction demand and construction price, state income, population, unemployment rates and interest rates. The panel vector error correction model can provide reliable and robust forecasting with less than 10% of the mean absolute percentage error for a medium-term trend of regional construction demand and outperforms the conventional forecasting models (panel multiple regression and time series multiple regression model). The key macroeconomic factors of construction demand variations across regions in Australia are also presented. The findings and robust econometric techniques used are valuable to construction economists in examining future construction markets at a regional level.

Implementation of an audit with feedback knowledge translation intervention to promote medication error reporting in health care: a protocol.

BACKGROUND: Health professionals strive to deliver high-quality care in an inherently complex and error-prone environment. Underreporting of medical errors challenges attempts to understand causative factors and impedes efforts to implement preventive strategies. Audit with feedback is a knowledge translation strategy that has potential to modify health professionals' medical error reporting behaviour. However, evidence regarding which aspects of this complex, multi-dimensional intervention work best is lacking. The aims of the Safe Medication Audit Reporting Translation (SMART) study are to: 1. Implement and refine a reporting mechanism to feed audit data on medication errors back to nurses 2. Test the feedback reporting mechanism to determine its utility and effect 3. Identify characteristics of organisational context associated with error reporting in response to feedback METHODS/DESIGN: A quasi-experimental design, incorporating two pairs of matched wards at an acute care hospital, is used. Randomisation occurs at the ward level; one ward from each pair is randomised to receive the intervention. A key stakeholder reference group informs the design and delivery of the feedback intervention. Nurses on the intervention wards receive the feedback intervention (feedback of analysed audit data) on a quarterly basis for 12 months. Data for the feedback intervention come from medication documentation point-prevalence audits and weekly reports on routinely collected medication error data. Weekly reports on these data are obtained for the control wards. A controlled interrupted time series analysis is used to evaluate the effect of the feedback intervention. Self-report data are also collected from nurses on all four wards at baseline and at completion of the intervention to elicit their perceptions of the work context. Additionally, following each feedback cycle, nurses on the intervention wards are invited to complete a survey to evaluate the feedback and to establish their intentions to change their reporting behaviour. To assess sustainability of the intervention, at 6 months following completion of the intervention a point-prevalence chart audit is undertaken and a report of routinely collected medication errors for the previous 6 months is obtained. This intervention will have wider application for delivery of feedback to promote behaviour change for other areas of preventable error and adverse events.