124 resultados para Ergodic Rates


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In this paper, we apply several variants of the EGARCH model to examine the role of depreciation of the Indian rupee on India's stock market returns using daily data. Our findings suggest that volatility persistence has been high; depreciation of the rupee has increased volatility; and asymmetric volatility confirms that negative shocks generate more volatility than positive shocks. We also find that an appreciation of the Indian rupee over the 2002 to 2006 has generated more returns and less volatility.

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We investigate the time-series properties of Australian and New Zealand real interest rates within a Markov-switching framework. This enables us to identify characteristics in real interest rate behavior hitherto unacknowledged. We find that rates switch between alternative stationary regimes characterized by differing means, speeds of mean-reversion and volatility. For New Zealand, high rates of inflation increase the probability of remaining in a regime characterized by a faster speed of adjustment. Further application of this methodology considers the real interest rate differential between Australia and New Zealand and points to differing regimes based on volatility rather than persistence.

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This article applies Granger causality tests to examine the relationship between seven different categories of property crime and violent crime against the person, male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings in Australia from 1964 to 2001 within a cointegration and vector error correction framework. It is found that fraud, homicide and motor vehicle theft are cointegrated with male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings. However, there is no evidence of a long-run relationship between either break and enter, robbery, serious assault or stealing with male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings.

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This article examines the long-run and short-run relationship between China's real exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves and the real interest rate differential between China and the United States using monthly data from 1980 to 2002. Extensive testing for unit roots allowing for up to two structural breaks in the trend indicates that the variables are not integrated of the same order. Thus, the bounds testing approach to cointegration is used, which finds that there is a single long-run relationship between the three variables. In the long run the real exchange rate has a statistically significant positive effect on foreign exchange reserves. The coefficient on the real interest rate differential is also positive, but is statistically insignificant. In the short-run it is found that the relationship between the real exchange rate, real interest rate differential and foreign exchange reserves is non-monotonic.

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Physiological response to extreme fasting in subantarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus tropicalis) pups: metabolic rates, energy reserve utilization, and water fluxes. Am J Physiol Regul Integr Comp Physiol 297: R1582–R1592, 2009. First published September 23, 2009; doi:10.1152/ajpregu.90857.2008.— Surviving prolonged fasting requires various metabolic adaptations, such as energy and protein sparing, notably when animals are simultaneously engaged in energy-demanding processes such as growth. Due to the intermittent pattern of maternal attendance, subantarctic fur seal pups have to repeatedly endure exceptionally long fasting episodes throughout the 10-mo rearing period while preparing for nutritional independence. Their metabolic responses to natural prolonged fasting (33.4 ± 3.3 days) were investigated at 7 mo of age. Within 4–6 fasting days, pups shifted into a stage of metabolic economy characterized by a minimal rate of body mass loss (0.7%/day) and decreased resting metabolic rate  (5.9 ± 0.1 ml O2 ·kg-1·day-1) that was only 10% above the level predicted for adult terrestrial mammals. Field metabolic rate (289 ± 10 kJ·kg-1 ·day-1) and water influx (7.9 ± 0.9 ml·kg-1 ·day-1) were also among the lowest reported for any young otariid, suggesting minimized energy allocation to behavioral activity and thermoregulation. Furthermore, lean tissue degradation was dramatically reduced. High initial adiposity (>48%) and predominant reliance on lipid catabolism likely contributed to the exceptional degree of protein sparing attained. Blood chemistry supported these findings and suggested utilization of alternative fuels, such as β-hydroxybutyrate and de novo synthesized glucose from fat-released glycerol. Regardless of sex and body condition, pups tended to adopt a convergent strategy of extreme energy and lean body mass conservation that appears highly adaptive for it allows some tissue growth during the repeated episodes of prolonged fasting they experience throughout their development.

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The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) project in Australia provided both data and theoretical framework for this investigation of regional differences in entrepreneurial activity within Australia and the factors that might underlie such differences.

This study found that entrepreneurial activity as measured by participation in business start-ups varied significantly between 11 defined regions of Australia. Factors found to be associated with high start-up activity were personal acquaintance with someone who had recently started a business (strong and statistically significant) and the perception of good opportunities for starting a business locally (indicative only). Participation rate by age range across region varied widely. Sample size precluded more in-depth analysis.

The study indicates a need for a research program designed to produce data and analysis that might be constructively shared by those who wish to foster entrepreneurship in Australia.

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The air electrode, which reduces oxygen (O2), is a critical component in energy generation and storage applications such as fuel cells and metal/air batteries. The highest current densities are achieved with platinum (Pt), but in addition to its cost and scarcity, Pt particles in composite electrodes tend to be inactivated by contact with carbon monoxide (CO) or by agglomeration. We describe an air electrode based on a porous material coated with poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) (PEDOT), which acts as an O2 reduction catalyst. Continuous operation for 1500 hours was demonstrated without material degradation or deterioration in performance. O2 conversion rates were comparable with those of Pt-catalyzed electrodes of the same geometry, and the electrode was not sensitive to CO. Operation was demonstrated as an air electrode and as a dissolved O2 electrode in aqueous solution.

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The residential market in Melbourne is often referred to as the ‘auction capital of the world’ with approximately 30-35% of housing transfers undertaken via the auction process, most of which are conducted on the weekend and then reported in the media the following day. The most quoted measurement of auction success is via the clearance rate which simply indicates the proportion of signed contracts of sale within the auction process. At the same time the clearance rate can have a relatively large variance where the residential market can traditionally range from very good (i.e. a high clearance rate) to very poor (i.e. a low clearance rate). The subsequent effect on the market can directly increase or decrease demand, predominantly based only on this single measure of the perceived level of auction clearance rates only.

This paper examines the concept of the auction clearance rates and the heavy reliance on the only one measure of success (i.e. the clearance rates), regardless of other variables. The emphasis is placed on the auction clearance rate as one measure of demand in the housing market but within the context of the definition of market value i.e. willing buyer-willing seller. This is supported by a discussion about other variables including the asking price, the auction process itself, marketing considerations and seasonal adjustments. The findings provide an insight into how to correctly interpret the auction clearance rate in the context of the overall supply-demand interactions. Whilst the auction process is clearly an integral part of the residential transfer process it is essential that the auction clearance rate is used with caution and also in conjunction with other variables.

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Season ticket holders (STHs) are vital to professional sport club revenue and are purported to be the most loyal and involved of fans. Nonrenewal (churn) rates among STHs, however, often exceed 20%. Low member satisfaction, poor onfield performance and low game attendance have all been posited as explanations of high churn rates, but rarely empirically examined. The research reported here employed a unique study of over 4,500 STHs, incorporating both survey research and measures of actual behavior, to determine which variables best explain and predict churn within two professional sport teams. A variety of analytical techniques all suggest that the key variables predicting churn are length of relationship and the number of games attended. New, low attending STHs are over five times more likely to churn than long-term, frequent attendees. Typical management practice is to run reward schemes designed to increase attendance and encourage renewal. The results of this study suggest that fundamental differences in the way new, low attending members evaluate the season ticket product may render those schemes ineffective. Shifting the focus of these STHs toward the intangibles of the product, such as stronger feelings of involvement, a sense of community and increased patron worth, could be more effective at reducing churn.

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The current study examines sexual and violent reoffence rates for a sample of 2474 sexual offenders over an average of 15 years following release from prison. Reoffence rates are reported as a function of the offenders' victim type and level of risk as assessed by the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale, a computer scored measure of relevant historical risk factors. Observed sexual recidivism rates for offenders with child victims, adult victims, and mixed victims were quite similar. Results indicate that offenders with exclusively female child victims not only showed a lower rate of sexual reoffending, but that the reoffence rates were relatively low across all levels of actuarial risk. In contrast, those with male child victims and adult victims showed a pronounced escalation of reoffence rates as actuarial risk increased. Results also indicated that adult victim offenders are less consistent in the victim type of their reoffences, with 37% sexually reoffending against child victims. Finally, combined rates of sexual and violent reoffending were particularly high for those with adult victim sexual offence histories. Risk assessment and public policy implications are discussed.