A predictive model of avian natal dispersal distance provides prior information for investigating response to landscape change

1. Informative Bayesian priors can improve the precision of estimates in ecological studies or estimate parameters for which little or no information is available. While Bayesian analyses are becoming more popular in ecology, the use of strongly informative priors remains rare, perhaps because examples of informative priors are not readily available in the published literature.
2. Dispersal distance is an important ecological parameter, but is difficult to measure and estimates are scarce. General models that provide informative prior estimates of dispersal distances will therefore be valuable.
3. Using a world-wide data set on birds, we develop a predictive model of median natal dispersal distance that includes body mass, wingspan, sex and feeding guild. This model predicts median dispersal distance well when using the fitted data and an independent test data set, explaining up to 53% of the variation.
4. Using this model, we predict a priori estimates of median dispersal distance for 57 woodland-dependent bird species in northern Victoria, Australia. These estimates are then used to investigate the relationship between dispersal ability and vulnerability to landscape-scale changes in habitat cover and fragmentation.
5. We find evidence that woodland bird species with poor predicted dispersal ability are more vulnerable to habitat fragmentation than those species with longer predicted dispersal distances, thus improving the understanding of this important phenomenon.
6. The value of constructing informative priors from existing information is also demonstrated. When used as informative priors for four example species, predicted dispersal distances reduced the 95% credible intervals of posterior estimates of dispersal distance by 8-19%. Further, should we have wished to collect information on avian dispersal distances and relate it to species' responses to habitat loss and fragmentation, data from 221 individuals across 57 species would have been required to obtain estimates with the same precision as those provided by the general model.

Efficient cross-validation of the complete two stages in KFD classifier formulation

This paper presents an efficient evaluation algorithm for cross-validating the two-stage approach of KFD classifiers. The proposed algorithm is of the same complexity level as the existing indirect efficient cross-validation methods but it is more reliable since it is direct and constitutes exact cross-validation for the KFD classifier formulation. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is almost as fast as the existing fast indirect evaluation algorithm and the twostage cross-validation selects better models on most of the thirteen benchmark data sets.

A predictive model of avian natal dispersal distance provides prior information for investigating response to landscape change

1. Informative Bayesian priors can improve the precision of estimates in ecological studies or estimate parameters for which little or no information is available. While Bayesian analyses are becoming more popular in ecology, the use of strongly informative priors remains rare, perhaps because examples of informative priors are not readily available in the published literature.

2. Dispersal distance is an important ecological parameter, but is difficult to measure and estimates are scarce. General models that provide informative prior estimates of dispersal distances will therefore be valuable.

3. Using a world-wide data set on birds, we develop a predictive model of median natal dispersal distance that includes body mass, wingspan, sex and feeding guild. This model predicts median dispersal distance well when using the fitted data and an independent test data set, explaining up to 53% of the variation.

4. Using this model, we predict a priori estimates of median dispersal distance for 57 woodland-dependent bird species in northern Victoria, Australia. These estimates are then used to investigate the relationship between dispersal ability and vulnerability to landscape-scale changes in habitat cover and fragmentation.

5. We find evidence that woodland bird species with poor predicted dispersal ability are more vulnerable to habitat fragmentation than those species with longer predicted dispersal distances, thus improving the understanding of this important phenomenon.

6. The value of constructing informative priors from existing information is also demonstrated. When used as informative priors for four example species, predicted dispersal distances reduced the 95% credible intervals of posterior estimates of dispersal distance by 8-19%. Further, should we have wished to collect information on avian dispersal distances and relate it to species' responses to habitat loss and fragmentation, data from 221 individuals across 57 species would have been required to obtain estimates with the same precision as those provided by the general model.

Building genetic networks using relatedness information : a novel approach for the estimation of dispersal and characterization of group structure in social animals

Natal dispersal is an important life history trait driving variation in individual fitness, and therefore, a proper understanding of the factors underlying dispersal behaviour is critical to many fields including population dynamics, behavioural ecology and conservation biology. However, individual dispersal patterns remain difficult to quantify despite many years of research using direct and indirect methods. Here, we quantify dispersal in a single intensively studied population of the cooperatively breeding chestnut-crowned babbler (Pomatostomus ruficeps) using genetic networks created from the combination of pairwise relatedness data and social networking methods and compare this to dispersal estimates from re-sighting data. This novel approach not only identifies movements between social groups within our study sites but also provides an estimation of immigration rates of individuals originating outside the study site. Both genetic and re-sighting data indicated that dispersal was strongly female biased, but the magnitude of dispersal estimates was much greater using genetic data. This suggests that many previous studies relying on mark–recapture data may have significantly underestimated dispersal. An analysis of spatial genetic structure within the sampled population also supports the idea that females are more dispersive, with females having no structure beyond the bounds of their own social group, while male genetic structure expands for 750 m from their social group. Although the genetic network approach we have used is an excellent tool for visualizing the social and genetic microstructure of social animals and identifying dispersers, our results also indicate the importance of applying them in parallel with behavioural and life history data.

Genes and song : genetic and social connections in fragmented habitat in a woodland bird with limited dispersal

Understanding the processes leading to population declines in fragmented landscapes is essential for successful conservation management. However, isolating the influence of disparate processes, and dispersal in particular, is challenging. The Grey Shrike-thrush, Colluricincla harmonica, is a sedentary woodland-dependent songbird, with learned vocalizations whose incidence in suitable habitat patches falls disproportionally with decline in tree cover in the landscape. Although it has been suggested that gaps in tree cover might act as barriers to its dispersal, the species remains in many remnants of native vegetation in agricultural landscapes, suggesting that it may have responded to habitat removal and fragmentation by maintaining or even increasing dispersal distances. We quantified population connectivity of the Grey Shrike-thrush in a system fragmented over more than 120 years using genetic (microsatellites) and acoustic (song types) data. First, we tested for population genetic and acoustic structure at regional and local scales in search of barriers to dispersal or gene flow and signals of local spatial structuring indicative of restricted dispersal or localized acoustic similarity. Then we tested for effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on genetic and acoustic connectivity by fitting alternative models of mobility (isolation-by-distance [the null model] and reduced and increased movement models) across treeless vs. treed areas. Birds within 5 km of each other had more similar genotypes and song types than those farther away, suggesting that dispersal and song matching are limited in the region. Despite restricted dispersal detected for females (but not males), populations appeared to be connected by gene flow and displayed some cultural (acoustic) connectivity across the region. Fragmentation did not appear to impact greatly the dispersal of the Grey Shrike-thrush: none of the mobility models fit the genetic distances of males, whereas for females, an isolation-by-distance model could not be rejected in favor of the models of reduced or increased movement through treeless gaps. However, dissimilarities of the song types were more consistent with the model of reduced cultural connectivity through treeless areas, suggesting that fragmentation impedes song type sharing in the Grey Shrike-thrush. Our paper demonstrates that habitat fragmentation hinders important population processes in an Australian woodland bird even though its dispersal is not detectably impacted.

Analysis of the stages of change model of drug and alcohol treatment readiness among prisoners

A classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was applied to data for 237 male participants (M = 31.93 years, SD = 7.64) in a prison-based substance abuse treatment program to study the integrity of the Stages of Change model of treatment readiness. Using the Stages of Change Questionnaire (STOCQ), participants were assigned to Contemplation (102), Action (118), or Maintenance (17) groups. A CART analysis then examined differences in the overall group profiles on the basis of scores on the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking, the Situational Confidence Questionnaire, and the Carlson Psychological Survey. The assumption of discrete stages of change was not supported. Alternative models are suggested: one based on states of change and one on personality characteristics. A focus on equal attention to both cognitive and behavioral aspects of substance abuse treatment readiness is suggested.

How did this snail get here? Several dispersal vectors inferred for an aquatic invasive species

1. How species reach and persist in isolated habitats remains an open question in many cases, especially for rapidly spreading invasive species. This is particularly true for temporary freshwater ponds, which can be remote and may dry out annually, but may still harbour high biodiversity. Persistence in such habitats depends on recurrent colonisation or species survival capacity, and ponds therefore provide an ideal system to investigate dispersal and connectivity. 2. Here, we test the hypothesis that the wide distributions and invasive potential of aquatic snails is due to their ability to exploit several dispersal vectors in different landscapes. We explored the population structure of Physa acuta (recent synonyms: Haitia acuta, Physella acuta, Pulmonata: Gastropoda), an invasive aquatic snail originating from North America, but established in temporary ponds in Doñana National Park, southern Spain. In this area, snails face land barriers when attempting to colonise other suitable habitat. 3. Genetic analyses using six microsatellite loci from 271 snails in 21 sites indicated that (i) geographically and hydrologically isolated snail populations in the park were genetically similar to a large snail population in rice fields more than 15 km away; (ii) these isolated ponds showed an isolation-by-distance pattern. This pattern broke down, however, for those ponds visited frequently by large mammals such as cattle, deer and wild boar; (iii) snail populations were panmictic in flooded and hydrologically connected rice fields. 4. These results support the notion that aquatic snails disperse readily by direct water connections in the flooded rice fields, can be carried by waterbirds flying between the rice fields and the park and may disperse between ponds within the park by attaching to large mammals. 5. The potential for aquatic snails such as Physa acuta to exploit several dispersal vectors may contribute to their wide distribution on various continents and their success as invasive species. We suggest that the interaction between different dispersal vectors, their relation to specific habitats and consequences at different geographic scales should be considered both when attempting to control invasive freshwater species and when protecting endangered species.