Higher education, real income and real investment in China : evidence from Granger causality tests

This paper employs cointegration and error-correction modelling to test the causal relationship between real income, real investment and tertiary education using data for the People's Republic of China over the period 1952-1999. To proxy tertiary education we use higher education enrolments and higher education graduates in alternative empirical specifications. One of the paper's main findings is that real income, real investment and tertiary education are cointegrated when real investment is the dependent variable, but are not cointegrated when either tertiary education or real income is the dependent variable. We also extend the in-sample analysis to examine the decomposition of variance and impulse response functions.

Tests of measurement invariance failed to support the application of the "then-test"

Objective
The use of then-test (retrospective pre-test) scores has frequently been proposed as a solution to potential confounding of change scores because of response shift, as it is assumed that then-test and post-test responses are provided from the same perspective. However, this assumption has not been formally tested using robust quantitative methods. The aim of this study was to compare the psychometric performance of then-test/post-test with traditional pre-test/post-test data and assessing whether the resulting data structures support the application of the then-test for evaluations of chronic disease self-management interventions.

Study Design and Setting
Pre-test, post-test, and then-test data were collected from 314 participants of self-management courses using the Health Education Impact Questionnaire (heiQ). The derived change scores (pre-test/post-test; then-test/post-test) were examined for their psychometric performance using tests of measurement invariance.

Results
Few questionnaire items were noninvariant across pre-test/post-test, with four items identified and requiring removal to enable an unbiased comparison of factor means. In contrast, 12 items were identified and required removal in then-test/post-test data to avoid biased change score estimates.

Conclusion
Traditional pre-test/post-test data appear to be robust with little indication of response shift. In contrast, the weaker psychometric performance of then-test/post-test data suggests psychometric flaws that may be the result of implicit theory of change, social desirability, and recall bias.

UV-shielding ceramic nanoparticles synthesised by mechanochemcial processing

ZnO, TiO₂ and CeO₂ are known as UV-shielding ceramic materials that have advantages over organic UV absorbers for their photo-stability and non-hazardous nature to human bodies. However, they normally cause low transparency in the visible-light range due to light scattering by large particles, which is undesirable for many transparent UV-blocking applications in cosmetic and plastic industries. Light-scattering efficiency of particles can be drastically reduced by decreasing the particle sizes down below 100 nm. This paper reviews recent investigation on the synthesis of ZnO and CeO₂ nanoparticles by mechanochemical processing. The resulting particles had a significantly low degree of agglomeration, having mean particle sizes of ~ 25 nm and ~ 10 nm, respectively. The aqueous suspensions of the nanoparticles showed strong absorption in the UV-light range and high transmittance in the visible-light range. Mechanochemical processing offers the possibility of industrial-scale production of transparent UV-shielding ceramic particles for many applications.

Why do Australians, New Zealanders and Americans travel to Fiji? Evidence from cointegration, unit roots and parameter stability tests

The aim of this study was to estimate the demand for Fiji’s tourism from its three main source markets—Australia, New Zealand, and the US—using the bounds testing approach to cointegration. Our main finding was that visitor arrivals to Fiji and its key determinants are cointegrated over the 1970–2000 period. We then used the autoregressive distributed lag model to estimate short-run and long-run elasticities and found that income in origin countries, transport costs, and prices were significant determinants of Fiji’s tourism demand. We also found that coups negatively impact visitor arrivals from all markets. In testing for parameter stability, we established that the series were integrated of order one in the presence of a structural break. We then used the Hansen test for parameter stability and found that the parameters of our long-run model are stable over time.

The saving and investment nexus for China : evidence from cointegration tests

The saving and investment nexus as postulated by Feldstein and Horioka (FH) (1980) is revisited. The saving investment correlation for China is estimated over the periods 1952-1998 and 1952-1994, the latter culminating in a period of fixed exchange rate regime. Amongst the key results, it is found that saving and investment are correlated for China for both the period of the fixed exchange rate and the entire sample period. With high saving-investment correlation, the results suggest that the Chinese economy is in conformity with the FH hypothesis. This is a valid outcome, for in China capital mobility was fairly restricted over the 1952-1994 period as indicated by the relatively low foreign direct investment.

The structure of tourist expenditure in Fiji : evidence from unit root structural break tests

The central aim of this paper is to investigate whether shocks to Fiji's tourism industry have a permanent effect or a transitory effect on tourist expenditure in Fiji. To accomplish this aim the Zivot and Andrews (1992) one break test and the Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) two break tests are used. The one break and two break tests reveal 1987 - the year of the military coups in Fiji - as the year of the break. Moreover, it is possible to reject the unit root null leading to the conclusion that shocks to Fiji's tourism industry have a transitory effect on tourist expenditure in Fiji.

Attendance and pricing at sporting events : empirical results from Granger Causality Tests for the Melbourne Cup

This study applies Granger causality tests to examine the relationship between attendance, admission prices and real income at the Melbourne Cup, which is Australia's premier horseracing event and one of the world's leading handicap races. The motivation for the paper is that while market demand suggests that causation should run from admission price to attendance, it is equally plausible that sporting authorities could alter admission prices in response to a change in demand reflected in attendance. The main findings are that in the short-run there is unidirectional Granger causality running from income to attendance, attendance to admission price and income to admission price, while in the long run both admission price and income Granger cause attendance.

Crime rates, male youth unemployment and real income in Australia: evidence from Granger causality tests

This article applies Granger causality tests to examine the relationship between seven different categories of property crime and violent crime against the person, male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings in Australia from 1964 to 2001 within a cointegration and vector error correction framework. It is found that fraud, homicide and motor vehicle theft are cointegrated with male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings. However, there is no evidence of a long-run relationship between either break and enter, robbery, serious assault or stealing with male youth unemployment and real male average weekly earnings.

Electricity consumption, employment and real income in Australia evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests

This paper examines the relationship between electricity consumption, employment and real income in Australia within a cointegration and causality framework. We find that electricity consumption, employment and real income are cointegrated and that in the long-run employment and real income Granger cause electricity consumption, while in the short run there is weak unidirectional Granger causality running from income to electricity consumption and from income to employment.

Reconstructing the incidence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Hong Kong by using data from HIV positive tests and diagnoses of acquired immune deficiency syndrome

The human immunodeficiency virus–acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV–AIDS) epidemic in Hong Kong has been under surveillance in the form of voluntary reporting since 1984. However, there has been little discussion or research on the reconstruction of the HIV incidence curve. This paper is the first to use a modified back-projection method to estimate the incidence of HIV in Hong Kong on the basis of the number of positive HIV tests only. The model proposed has several advantages over the original back-projection method based on AIDS data only. First, not all HIV-infected individuals will develop AIDS by the time of analysis, but some of them may undertake an HIV test; therefore, the HIV data set contains more information than the AIDS data set. Second, the HIV diagnosis curve usually has a smoother pattern than the AIDS diagnosis curve, as it is not affected by redefinition of AIDS. Third, the time to positive HIV diagnosis is unlikely to be affected by treatment effects, as it is unlikely that an individual receives medication before the diagnosis of HIV. Fourth, the induction period from HIV infection to the first HIV positive test is usually shorter than the incubation period which is from HIV infection to diagnosis of AIDS. With a shorter induction period, more information becomes available for estimating the HIV incidence curve. Finally, this method requires the number of positive HIV diagnoses only, which is readily available from HIV–AIDS surveillance systems in many countries. It is estimated that, in Hong Kong, the cumulative number of HIV infections during the period 1979–2000 is about 2600, whereas an estimate based only on AIDS data seems to give an underestimate.

The Sawankhalok ceramic industry

A techno-historical study of a commercial initiative by 13th century Thai village potters to produce domestic stoneware ceramics. However their enterprise's success attracted the exploitative interest of regional trade entrepreneurs whose specialisation of the industry created a fatal lack of efficiency and flexibility.