Variability and predictability of elite competitive slalom canoe-kayak performance

Little is known about the race performance characteristics of elite-level slalom canoeists or the magnitude of improvement necessary to enhance medal-winning prospects. Final placing in this sport is determined by the aggregate of semi-final and final run times inclusive of penalty times. We therefore used mixed linear modelling to analyse these times for finalists ranked in the top and bottom half in the men's canoe, men's kayak, and women's kayak boat classes at World Cups, World Championships, and Olympic Games from 2000 to 2007. The run-to-run variability for top-ranked athletes at different courses ranged from 0.8% to 3.2% (90% confidence limits ×/÷1.11-1.31), reflecting differences in how challenging these courses were. The race-to-race variability of aggregate run time was 1.2-2.1% (×/÷~1.09); 0.3 of this variability yields the smallest worthwhile enhancement of 0.4-0.6%. The variabilities of bottom-ranked finalists were approximately double those of top-ranked finalists. The home advantage was small (0.3-0.8%), and incurring a penalty had a marginal effect on reducing actual run time (0.2-0.7%). Correlation coefficients for performance predictability within competitions (0.06-0.35), within years (0.12-0.47), and between years (0.12-0.43) were poor. In conclusion, the variability of performance and smallest worthwhile enhancements in slalom canoe-kayaking are larger than those of comparable sports, and race outcomes are largely unpredictable.

Secrecy and human rights abuse in Australia’s offshore immigration detention centres

All asylum seekers who arrive in Australia’s territorial waters by boat are subject to mandatory, indefinite and unreviewable detention on Nauru and Papua New Guinea. This offshore detention regime is characterised by a high degree of secrecy, low levels of transparency and accountability, and few opportunities for external oversight. This has created a closed, controlled environment, in which people are routinely neglected and harmed. To better understand the human impact of Australia’s offshore detention regime, this article draws on research from social psychology regarding human behaviour in closed institutions. This research – which has substantially informed prison policies throughout the Western world – demonstrates the critical importance of external oversight, openness and transparency for the protection of human rights of people in closed institutions. This knowledge has not been applied to Australia’s offshore immigration detention regime. To the contrary: creating a closed, opaque system of detention has been an explicit policy goal of the Australian government. By actively restricting transparency, this research demonstrates that not only are the abuses of detainees’ human rights hidden from the public eye, they are inevitable.