How to find natural reservoir hosts from endemic prevalence in a multi-host population : a case study of influenza in waterfowl

The transmission dynamics of infectious diseases critically depend on reservoir hosts, which can sustain the pathogen (or maintain the transmission) in the population even in the absence of other hosts. Although a theoretical foundation of the transmission dynamics in a multi-host population has been established, no quantitative methods exist for the identification of natural reservoir hosts. For a host to maintain the transmission alone, the host-specific reproduction number (U), interpreted as the average number of secondary transmissions caused by a single primary case in the host(s) of interest in the absence of all other hosts, must be greater than unity. If the host-excluded reproduction number (Q), representing the average number of secondary transmissions per single primary case in other hosts in the absence of the host(s) of interest, is below unity, transmission cannot be maintained in the multi-host population in the absence of the focal host(s).

The present study proposes a simple method for the identification of reservoir host(s) from observed endemic prevalence data across a range of host species. As an example, we analyze an aggregated surveillance dataset of influenza A virus in wild birds among which dabbling ducks exhibit higher prevalence compared to other bird species. Since the heterogeneous contact patterns between different host species are not directly observable, we test four different contact structures to account for the uncertainty. Meeting the requirements of U > 1 and Q < 1 for all four different contact structures, mallards and other dabbling ducks most likely constitute the reservoir community which plays a predominant role in maintaining the transmission of influenza A virus in the water bird population. We further discuss epidemiological issues which are concerned with the interpretation of influenza prevalence data, identifying key features to be fully clarified in the future.

Effects of infection-induced migration delays on the epidemiology of avian influenza in wild mallard populations

Wild waterfowl populations form a natural reservoir of Avian Influenza (AI) virus, and fears exist that these birds may contribute to an AI pandemic by spreading the virus along their migratory flyways. Observational studies suggest that individuals infected with AI virus may delay departure from migratory staging sites. Here, we explore the epidemiological dynamics of avian influenza virus in a migrating mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) population with a specific view to understanding the role of infection-induced migration delays on the spread of virus strains of differing transmissibility. We develop a host-pathogen model that combines the transmission dynamics of influenza with the migration, reproduction and mortality of the host bird species. Our modeling predicts that delayed migration of individuals influences both the timing and size of outbreaks of AI virus. We find that (1) delayed migration leads to a lower total number of cases of infection each year than in the absence of migration delay, (2) when the transmission rate of a strain is high, the outbreak starts at the staging sites at which birds arrive in the early part of the fall migration, (3) when the transmission rate is low, infection predominantly occurs later in the season, which is further delayed when there is a migration delay. As such, the rise of more virulent AI strains in waterfowl could lead to a higher prevalence of infection later in the year, which could change the exposure risk for farmed poultry. A sensitivity analysis shows the importance of generation time and loss of immunity for the effect of migration delays. Thus, we demonstrate, in contrast to many current transmission risk models solely using empirical information on bird movements to assess the potential for transmission, that a consideration of infection-induced delays is critical to understanding the dynamics of AI infection along the entire flyway.

Strong population genetic structure and its management implications in the mud carp Cirrhinus molitorella, an indigenous freshwater species subject to an aquaculture and culture-based fishery

This study investigated population genetic structure and diversity of mud carp Cirrhinus molitorella, a species widely used in aquaculture and culture-based fisheries in China and Mekong River riparian countries. Seven newly developed and one published microsatellite DNA markers were used to analyse samples from six wild locations, four hatchery broodstocks and one farmed site from the Mekong, Red and Pearl Rivers. Significant genetic structure was detected in C. molitorella, with isolation-by-distance being a strong force in the Mekong. Pair-wise F_ST, Fisher's exact tests for population differentiation, permutation tests and individual-based structure analysis all support the recognition of a sample originating from Toul Krasaing Lake (Cambodia) and one between Kratie and Stung Treng (Cambodia) as distinct from the remainder of the sampled range. Samples from the main upper Mekong and the Nam Khan River were significantly differentiated, but on a time scale inferred to be short (i.e. by genetic drift, not sufficient for evolution of new microsatellite alleles). The Mekong stock of C. molitorella was strongly differentiated from those from the Red and Pearl Rivers, inferred to be on an evolutionary time scale. Finer-scale sampling is warranted to further improve the understanding of genetic interactions among fish from the Mekong and its tributaries. Detailed studies on the ecology of C. molitorella (e.g. migration pathways and preferred spawning habitats) would provide useful information to explain the patterns of genetic structure detected here, and deepen insights about evolutionary distinctiveness of the population units.

Our natives and wild blacks : enumeration as a statistical dimension of sovereignty in colonial Western Australia

This paper investigates the Western Australian colonial authorities' attempts at defining and categorising a "politically relevant" Aboriginal population from first settlement in 1829 until 1850. Studies of colonial enumeration allow us to understand how colonial authorities viewed the spaces and boundaries of settlement and beyond, and who would be included as part of the community inhabiting that space. Enumeration of Aboriginal people in this period mirrored the Western Australian colonial authorities' conception of their sovereignty: the territory which they could effectively control was not the entire western third of the continent, as the map dictated, but rather the surveyed country, within the "limits of settlement." While other studies of colonial census making reveal enumeration as an instrument of control, this paper identifies colonial census making about Indigenous Western Australians in this period as an instance of state incapacity to govern and control. While "control" was the colonial authorities' key objective in their enumerations, the census reports reveal their inability to know the Aboriginal population.

Using an Electronic Monitoring System to Link Offspring Provisioning and Foraging Behavior of a Wild Passerine

Although the costs of parental care are at the foundations of optimal-parental-investment theory, our understanding of the nature of the underlying costs is limited by the difficulty of measuring variation in foraging effort. We simultaneously measured parental provisioning and foraging behavior in a free-living population of Zebra Finches (Taeniopygia guttata) using an electronic monitoring system. We fitted 145 adults with a passive transponder tag and remotely recorded their visits to nest boxes and feeders continuously over a 2-month period. After validating the accuracy of this monitoring system, we studied how provisioning and foraging activities varied through time (day and breeding cycle) and influenced the benefits (food received by the offspring) and costs (interclutch interval) of parental care. The provisioning rates of wild Zebra Finches were surprisingly low, with an average of only one visit per hour throughout the day. This was significantly lower than those reported for this model species in captivity and for most other passerines in the wild. Nest visitation rate only partially explained the amount of food received by the young, with parental foraging activity, including the minimum distance covered on foraging trips, being better predictors. Parents that sustained higher foraging activity and covered more distance during the first breeding attempt took longer to renest. These results demonstrate that in some species matching foraging activity with offspring provisioning may provide a better estimate of the true investment that individuals commit to a reproductive attempt.

Personality in captivity: more exploratory males reproduce better in an aviary population

The existence of animal personality is well-established across a wide range of species, with the majority of evidence for this being obtained from individuals held in captivity. However, there has been little work assessing the influence of commonly-measured personality traits on fitness, which is pertinent when the genetic basis of personality is considered. We measured whether the reproductive behaviour and success of zebra finches in a captive mixed-sex aviary environment was influenced by an aspect of their personality, their exploratory behaviour in a single-sex social aviary. We found that more exploratory males made a greater number of breeding attempts and raised more nestlings than less exploratory males. These results were not confounded by extra-pair paternity, which was not related to personality, or by the individuals that did not initiate any reproductive attempts at all. Our work provides evidence that attributes of personality may influence the degree to which individuals cope with, and thrive in a captive environment and this should be accounted for in both experimental design and the interpretation of results. Furthermore, this suggests that there may be selection on these traits as part of the domestication process.

Individual (co)variation in standard metabolic rate, feeding rate, and exploratory behavior in wild-caught semiaquatic salamanders

Repeatability is an important concept in evolutionary analyses because it provides information regarding the benefit of repeated measurements and, in most cases, a putative upper limit to heritability estimates. Repeatability (R) of different aspects of energy metabolism and behavior has been demonstrated in a variety of organisms over short and long time intervals. Recent research suggests that consistent individual differences in behavior and energy metabolism might covary. Here we present new data on the repeatability of body mass, standard metabolic rate (SMR), voluntary exploratory behavior, and feeding rate in a semiaquatic salamander and ask whether individual variation in behavioral traits is correlated with individual variation in metabolism on a whole-animal basis and after conditioning on body mass. All measured traits were repeatable, but the repeatability estimates ranged from very high for body mass (R = 0.98), to intermediate for SMR (R = 0.39) and food intake (R = 0.58), to low for exploratory behavior (R = 0.25). Moreover, repeatability estimates for all traits except body mass declined over time (i.e., from 3 to 9 wk), although this pattern could be a consequence of the relatively low sample size used in this study. Despite significant repeatability in all traits, we find little evidence that behaviors are correlated with SMR at the phenotypic and among-individual levels when conditioned on body mass. Specifically, the phenotypic correlations between SMR and exploratory behavior were negative in all trials but significantly so in one trial only. Salamanders in this study showed individual variation in how their exploratory behavior changed across trials (but not body mass, SMR, and feed intake), which might have contributed to observed changing correlations across trials.

Energy expenditure and personality in wild chipmunks

© 2015, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. According to the “pace-of-life syndrome” concept, slow-fast life-history strategies favored under different ecological conditions should lead to co-adaptations between metabolic rate and personality traits such as activity, exploration, and boldness. Although the relationships between resting metabolic rate (RMR) and personality traits have been recently tested several times, we still do not know whether personality is related to the daily energy expenditure (DEE) of free-living individuals in their natural habitat. The objectives of this study were to assess the links between RMR, DEE, and two personality traits (exploration in an open-field and docility during handling) in wild eastern chipmunks (Tamias striatus). Using a multivariate mixed model, we found that exploration and docility were significantly correlated at the among-individual level, confirming the presence of a behavioral syndrome within our population. We also found that exploration, but not docility, was negatively correlated with DEE. Hence, fast explorers show lower DEE levels than slow explorers, independently of RMR and docility. This result adds to an increasingly large (and complex) literature reporting the impacts of personality traits on the biology, ecology, and physiology of animals in their natural environment.

Population, behavioural and physiological responses of an urban population of black swans to an intense annual noise event

Wild animals in urban environments are exposed to a broad range of human activities that have the potential to disturb their life history and behaviour. Wildlife responses to disturbance can range from emigration to modified behaviour, or elevated stress, but these responses are rarely evaluated in concert. We simultaneously examined population, behavioural and hormonal responses of an urban population of black swans Cygnus atratus before, during and after an annual disturbance event involving large crowds and intense noise, the Australian Formula One Grand Prix. Black swan population numbers were lowest one week before the event and rose gradually over the course of the study, peaking after the event, suggesting that the disturbance does not trigger mass emigration. We also found no difference in the proportion of time spent on key behaviours such as locomotion, foraging, resting or self-maintenance over the course of the study. However, basal and capture stress-induced corticosterone levels showed significant variation, consistent with a modest physiological response. Basal plasma corticosterone levels were highest before the event and decreased over the course of the study. Capture-induced stress levels peaked during the Grand Prix and then also declined over the remainder of the study. Our results suggest that even intensely noisy and apparently disruptive events may have relatively low measurable short-term impact on population numbers, behaviour or physiology in urban populations with apparently high tolerance to anthropogenic disturbance. Nevertheless, the potential long-term impact of such disturbance on reproductive success, individual fitness and population health will need to be carefully evaluated.

The size and composition of social groups in the wild zebra finch

Despite the zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata) being used as a model species in behavioural science, the size and composition of social groups in which individuals typically live in the wild when they are not breeding is not well described. We observed the group size and composition of free-ranging zebra finches during two brief non-breeding periods near semipermanent water sources in the arid zone of Australia. We conducted 15 observation sessions at two artificial dams during late 2011, and five transects in April 2012. We found that individuals most commonly foraged, watered and travelled around the colonies in groups of two, the overwhelming majority of which (94.2%) were mixed-sex, which most likely reflected sexual partnerships, or in larger groups of 3-10 individuals, with few observations of groups larger than this observed. These observations indicate the central importance of the pair bond, even during periods outside of active breeding. We also saw very few single-sex groups, in contrast to the way in which they are often housed in captivity. Our results suggest that researchers working on captive zebra finches should attempt to keep individuals in pairs or small social groups to best emulate the social environment they generally experience in the wild.