Does the polygraph lead to better risk prediction for sexual offenders?

The polygraph is receiving increased attention surrounding its ability to facilitate more honest disclosures from sexual offenders concerning risk-related information (e.g., historical risk factors and acute-dynamic risk factors). In addition, the polygraph has become accepted as a standard containment tool in the US, although UK professionals appear to have taken a more cautionary approach. The aim of this review is to provide a basic overview of current risk assessment procedure in the absence of the polygraph, and then to investigate studies that use the polygraph to enhance sexual offenders' risk assessments. Specifically, studies examining historical risk factors, stable-dynamic risk factors, and acute-dynamic risk factors are examined and evaluated. We conclude that there is reasonable evidence supporting polygraph use in some areas of risk assessment. However, the vast majority of studies suffers from serious confounds that should be taken into account by professionals who use the polygraph as a standard practice in sexual offender risk assessment and management. Finally, the future of the polygraph is discussed in light of the presented empirical evidence.

Mortality disparities between geographic regions : results from a risk percentiles model for coronary heart disease

Background: Planning of disease prevention strategies requires information regarding the distribution of absolute risk in the population to allow targeting of people at high disease risk. It is well known that death rates from coronary heart disease (CHD) are higher in remote areas of Australia compared with major cities. Less well understood is the distribution of the absolute risk of CHD death within the different geographic regions. We present a mathematical model of CHD which projects the lifetime risk of death among individuals in different percentiles of CHD risk. We apply this to model the distribution of CHD risk within different geographic regions.

Methods: Using information from the Framingham1, MRFIT2 and AusDiab3 studies, the Australian population was divided into percentiles of CHD risk within age and gender groups by geographic location. Absolute mortality risk was determined at each percentile using current Australian mortality data. Survival curves were generated for each percentile using these risk estimates. Approximate confidence intervals were derived using bootstrap methods.

Conclusions: The difference in life expectancy at age 25 between those in the lowest decile of CHD risk compared to the highest was 5.8 years (95%CI:4.7,6.7) in major cities compared to 8.5 years (95%CI:7.6,9.7) in remote areas. The difference in risk of premature death (before age 75) was 12% (95%CI:10%,14%) in major cities compared to 33% (95%CI:28%,38%) in remote areas.

HealthMap: a visual platform for patient suicide risk review

Misjudging suicide risk can be fatal. Risk assessment is complicated by multiplicity of risk factors, none of which individually can reliably predict risk. This paper addresses the need for better clinical support, visualising risk factors scattered in raw electronic medical records. HealthMap is a visual tool that helps clinicians effectively examine patient histories during a suicide risk assessment. We characterise the information visualisation problems accompanying suicide risk assessments. A design driven by visualisation principles was implemented. The prototype was evaluated by clinicians and accepted into daily clinical work-flow.

Effect of mean stress on multiaxial ratcheting life: a simplified life prediction model based on average equivalent stress amplitude

This article proposes a model to predict uniaxial and multiaxial ratcheting life by addressing the three primary parameters that influence failure life: fatigue damage, ratcheting damage and the multiaxial loading path. These three factors are addressed in the present model by (a) the stress amplitude for fatigue damage, (b) mean stress-dependent Goodman equation for ratcheting damage and (c) an inherent weight factor based on average equivalent stress to account for the multiaxial loading. The proposed model requires only two material constants which can be easily determined from uniaxial symmetric stress-controlled fatigue tests. Experimental ratcheting life data collected from the literature for 1025 and 42CrMo steel under multiaxial proportional and nonproportional constant amplitude loading ratcheting with triangular sinusoidal and trapezoidal waveform (i.e. linear, rhombic, circular, elliptical and square stress paths) have shown good agreement with the proposed model.

The addition of depression to the Framingham Risk Equation model for predicting coronary heart disease risk in women

BACKGROUND: Depression is widely considered to be an independent and robust predictor of Coronary Heart Disease (CHD), however is seldom considered in the context of formal risk assessment. We assessed whether the addition of depression to the Framingham Risk Equation (FRE) improved accuracy for predicting 10-year CHD in a sample of women.

DESIGN: A prospective, longitudinal design comprising an age-stratified, population-based sample of Australian women collected between 1993 and 2011 (n=862).

METHODS: Clinical depressive disorder was assessed using the Structured Clinical Interview for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (SCID-I/NP), using retrospective age-of-onset data. A composite measure of CHD included non-fatal myocardial infarction, unstable angina coronary intervention or cardiac death. Cox proportional-hazards regression models were conducted and overall accuracy assessed using area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS: ROC curve analyses revealed that the addition of baseline depression status to the FRE model improved its overall accuracy (AUC:0.77, Specificity:0.70, Sensitivity:0.75) when compared to the original FRE model (AUC:0.75, Specificity:0.73, Sensitivity:0.67). However, when calibrated against the original model, the predicted number of events generated by the augmented version marginally over-estimated the true number observed.

CONCLUSIONS: The addition of a depression variable to the FRE equation improves the overall accuracy of the model for predicting 10-year CHD events in women, however may over-estimate the number of events that actually occur. This model now requires validation in larger samples as it could form a new CHD risk equation for women.

Parametric conditional frailty models for recurrent cardiovascular events in the lipid study

Background Analysis of recurrent event data is frequently needed in clinical and epidemiological studies. An important issue in such analysis is how to account for the dependence of the events in an individual and any unobserved heterogeneity of the event propensity across individuals.Methods We applied a number of conditional frailty and nonfrailty models in an analysis involving recurrent myocardial infarction events in the Long-Term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease study. A multiple variable risk prediction model was developed for both males and females. Results A Weibull model with a gamma frailty term fitted the data better than other frailty models for each gender. Among nonfrailty models the stratified survival model fitted the data best for each gender. The relative risk estimated by the elapsed time model was close to that estimated by the gap time model. We found that a cholesterol-lowering drug, pravastatin (the intervention being tested in the trial) had significant protective effect against the occurrence of myocardial infarction in men (HR¼0.71, 95% CI0.60–0.83). However, the treatment effect was not significant in women due to smaller sample size (HR¼0.75, 95% CI 0.51–1.10). There were no significant interactions between the treatment effect and each recurrent MI event (p¼0.24 for men and p¼0.55 for women). The risk of developing an MI event for a male who had an MI event during follow-up was about 3.4 (95% CI 2.6–4.4) times the risk compared with those who did not have an MI event. The corresponding relative risk for a female was about 7.8 (95% CI 4.4–13.6). Limitations The number of female patients was relatively small compared with their male counterparts, which may result in low statistical power to find real differences in the effect of treatment and other potential risk factors.Conclusions The conditional frailty model suggested that after accounting for all the risk factors in the model, there was still unmeasured heterogeneity of the risk for myocardial infarction, indicating the effect of subject-specific risk factors. These risk prediction models can be used to classify cardiovascular disease patients into different risk categories and may be useful for the most effective targeting of preventive therapies for cardiovascular disease.

The management of adolescents at risk of suicide by Australian general practitioners: issues in practice and confidence

This study involved an anonymous survey of 41Victorian GPs regarding their diagnostic and treatment practices with adolescent patients with depression and/or suicide ideation. The results indicated that the majority of respondents correctly diagnosed the level of depression and the risk of suicide in a case scenario. Although they commonly asked some of the questions related to an assessment of suicide risk, they rarely conducted a comprehensive risk assessment and the level of referral to telephone and internet crisis services was poor. Most GPs indicated a lack of confidence in their ability to detect and manage depression and suicide in this population and strongly emphasized a need for more training.

Variable definitions: implications for the prediction of pulmonary complications after adult cardiac surgery

Aim: The aim of this paper was to review the implications that variable definitions have for the prediction of post-operative pulmonary complications after cardiac surgery.

Method: A review of the literature from 1980 to 2002. Selected studies demonstrated an original attempt to examine multivariate associations between pre, intra or post-operative antecedents and pulmonary outcomes in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Reports that described the validation of established clinical prediction rules, testing interventions or research conducted in non-human cohorts were excluded from this review.

Results: Consistently, variable factor and outcome definitions are combined for the development of multivariate prediction models that subsequently have limited clinical value. Despite being prevalent there are very few attempts to examine post-operative pulmonary complications (PPC) as endpoints in isolation. The trajectory of pulmonary dysfunction that precedes complications in the post-operative context is not clear. As such there is little knowledge of post-operative antecedents to PPC that are invariably excluded from model development.

Conclusion: Multivariate clinical prediction rules that incorporate antecedent patient and process factors from the continuum of cardiovascular care for specific pulmonary outcomes are recommended. Models such as these would be useful for practice, policy and quality improvement.