Does the polygraph lead to better risk prediction for sexual offenders?

The polygraph is receiving increased attention surrounding its ability to facilitate more honest disclosures from sexual offenders concerning risk-related information (e.g., historical risk factors and acute-dynamic risk factors). In addition, the polygraph has become accepted as a standard containment tool in the US, although UK professionals appear to have taken a more cautionary approach. The aim of this review is to provide a basic overview of current risk assessment procedure in the absence of the polygraph, and then to investigate studies that use the polygraph to enhance sexual offenders' risk assessments. Specifically, studies examining historical risk factors, stable-dynamic risk factors, and acute-dynamic risk factors are examined and evaluated. We conclude that there is reasonable evidence supporting polygraph use in some areas of risk assessment. However, the vast majority of studies suffers from serious confounds that should be taken into account by professionals who use the polygraph as a standard practice in sexual offender risk assessment and management. Finally, the future of the polygraph is discussed in light of the presented empirical evidence.

Mental health-related risk factors for violence : using the evidence to guide mental health triage decision making

Mental health clinicians working in emergency crisis assessment teams or mental health triage roles are required to make rapid and accurate risk assessments. The assessment of violence risk at triage is particularly pertinent to the early identification and prevention of patient violence, and to enhancing the safety of clinical staff and the general public. To date, the evidence base for mental health triage violence risk assessment has been minimal. This study aimed to address this evidence gap by identifying best available evidence for mental health-related risk factors for patientinitiated violence.We conducted a systematic review based on the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia’s methodology for systematic reviews. A total of 6847 studies were retrieved, of which 326 studies met the study inclusion criteria. Of these studies, 277 met inclusion criteria but failed the quality appraisal process, thus a total of 49 studies were included in the final review. The risk factors that achieved the highest evidence grading were predominantly related to dynamic clinical factors immediately observable in the patient’s general appearance, behaviour and speech. These factors included hostility/anger, agitation, thought disturbance, positive symptoms of schizophrenia, suspiciousness and irritability.

HealthMap: a visual platform for patient suicide risk review

Misjudging suicide risk can be fatal. Risk assessment is complicated by multiplicity of risk factors, none of which individually can reliably predict risk. This paper addresses the need for better clinical support, visualising risk factors scattered in raw electronic medical records. HealthMap is a visual tool that helps clinicians effectively examine patient histories during a suicide risk assessment. We characterise the information visualisation problems accompanying suicide risk assessments. A design driven by visualisation principles was implemented. The prototype was evaluated by clinicians and accepted into daily clinical work-flow.

Healthy revolutions: promoting cycling among women

Issue addressed: Australian women's participation in cycling for transport and recreation is approximately half that of men. These gender differences do not occur in several western European countries. Research is required to investigate the individual, social and environmental determinants of Australian women's participation in cycling for transport and recreation.

Discussion: Few studies have systematically investigated women's perceptions and experiences of cycling and little is known about what motivates and sustains their involvement. Preliminary indications are that, for women, there may be an interest in and capacity to participate in cycling that is not being translated into practice. Safety concerns appear to be a significant deterrent to women cycling. Safety factors have a differential impact on women as they are generally more risk averse than men. Quantitative risk assessments suggest that the risk of injury associated with cycling is small and that the health benefits outweigh the health costs. Cycling promotion campaigns may achieve greater success with women if they enable women to experience cycling in an environment that both is, and is perceived to be, safe and supportive.

Conclusions: Research is needed to determine what strategies are likely to be most effective in promoting cycling among Australian women, as a basis for developing programs, policies and facilities to support women's participation in cycling.

Insurance services in multi-agent systems

In a multi-agent environment, there is often the need for an agent to cooperate with others so as to ensure that a given task is achieved timely and cost-effectively. Present agent systems currently maximizes this through mechanisms such as trust and risk assessments. In this paper, we extend this mechanism by introducing the concept of insurance, in which the insurance agents act as a bridge between agents who require resources from others. Unlike traditional systems, agents purchase insurance so as to guarantee to have the requested resources during the task execution time and thus minimize the risk in task failure. The novelty of this proposal is that it ensures agents continuously to exchange resources and to seek maximum expected utility in a dynamic environment at the same time. Our experimental results confirm the feasibility of our approach.

Mental health diversion courts : some directions for further development

Recent years have seen a growth in the number of specialist courts operating in Australia, including those which aim to address the needs of mentally disordered offenders. This article describes some of the key characteristics of mental health courts, using case studies from the most established court in Australia, the South Australian Magistrates Court Diversion Program (MCDP). This is followed by a consideration of some factors that may affect the future development of this type of program. It is concluded that there is a need to pay careful attention to issues of risk assessment and risk management if the dual goals of improving both the health of individual and the safety of the community are to be realised.

Field evaluation of a suite of biomarkers in an Australian Tropical Reef Species, Stripey Seaperch (Lutjanus carponotatus) : Assessment of Produced Formation water from the Harriet A Platform

There is paucity of data regarding hydrocarbon exposure of tropical fish species inhabiting the waters near oil and gas platforms on the Northwest Shelf of Australia. A comprehensive field study assessed the exposure and potential effects associated with the produced water (PW) plume from the Harriet A production platform on the northwest shelf in a local reef species, Stripey seaperch (Lutjanus carponotatus). This field study was a continuation of an earlier pilot study which concluded that there were “warning signs” of potential biological effects on fish populations exposed to PW. A 10-day field caging study was conducted deploying 15 individual fish into 6 separate steel cages set 1-m subsurface at 3 stations in a concentration gradient moving away from the platform. A battery of biomarkers were evaluated including hepatosomatic index (HSI), total cytochrome P450, bile metabolites, CYP1A-, CYP2K- and CYP2M-like proteins, cholinesterase (ChE) activity, and histopathology of liver and gill tissues. Water column and PW effluent samples was also collected. Results confirmed that PAH metabolites in bile, CYP1A-, CYP2K-, and CYP2M-like proteins and liver histopathology provided evidence of significant exposure and effects after 10 days at the near-field site (~200 m off the Harriet A platform). Hepatosomatic index, total cytochrome P450, and ChE did not provide site-specific differences by day 10 of exposure to PW. CYP proteins were shown by principal component analysis (PCA) to be the best diagnostic tool for determining exposure and associated biological effects of PW on L. carponotatus. Using a suite of biomarkers has been widely advocated as a vital component in environmental risk assessments worldwide. This study demonstrates the usefulness of biomarkers for assessing the Harriet A PW discharge into Australian waters with broader applications for other PW discharges. This approach has merit as a valuable addition to environmental management strategies for protecting Australia’s tropical environment and its rich biodiversity.

Reproduction in five sympatric batoid species (family urolophidae) from south-eastern Australia

This PhD determines the reproductive biology of five stingaree species caught as bycatch from south-eastern Australian commercial fisheries for fisheries stock assessments, ecological risk assessments, and species extinction risk evaluations.

Predicting avian distributions to evaluate spatiotemporal overlap with locust control operations in eastern Australia.

Locusts and grasshoppers cause considerable economic damage to agriculture worldwide. The Australian Plague Locust Commission uses multiple pesticides to control locusts in eastern Australia. Avian exposure to agricultural pesticides is of conservation concern, especially in the case of rare and threatened species. The aim of this study was to evaluate the probability of pesticide exposure of native avian species during operational locust control based on knowledge of species occurrence in areas and times of application. Using presence-absence data provided by the Birds Australia Atlas for 1998 to 2002, we developed a series of generalized linear models to predict avian occurrences on a monthly basis in 0.5 degrees grid cells for 280 species over 2 million km2 in eastern Australia. We constructed species-specific models relating occupancy patterns to survey date and location, rainfall, and derived habitat preference. Model complexity depended on the number of observations available. Model output was the probability of occurrence for each species at times and locations of past locust control operations within the 5-year study period. Given the high spatiotemporal variability of locust control events, the variability in predicted bird species presence was high, with 108 of the total 280 species being included at least once in the top 20 predicted species for individual space-time events. The models were evaluated using field surveys collected between 2000 and 2005, at sites with and without locust outbreaks. Model strength varied among species. Some species were under- or over-predicted as times and locations of interest typically did not correspond to those in the prediction data set and certain species were likely attracted to locusts as a food source. Field surveys demonstrated the utility of the spatially explicit species lists derived from the models but also identified the presence of a number of previously unanticipated species. These results also emphasize the need for special consideration of rare and threatened species that are poorly predicted by presence-absence models. This modeling exercise was a useful a priori approach in species risk assessments to identify species present at times and locations of locust control applications, and to discover gaps in our knowledge and need for further focused data collection.

Testing the focal species approach to making conservation decisions for species persistence

Aim: Most risk assessments and decisions in conservation are based on surrogate approaches, where a group of species or environmental indicators are selected as proxies for other aspects of biodiversity. In the focal species approach, a suite of species is selected based on life history characteristics, such as dispersal limitation and area requirements. Testing the validity of the focal species concept has proved difficult, due to a lack of theory justifying the underlying framework, explicit objectives and measures of success. We sought to understand the conditions under which the focal species concept has merit for conservation decisions. Location: Our model system comprised 10 vertebrate species in 39 patches of native forest embedded in pine plantation in New South Wales, Australia. Methods: We selected three focal species based on ecological traits. We used a multiple-species reserve selection method that minimizes the expected loss of species, by estimating the risk of extinction with a metapopulation model. We found optimal reserve solutions for multiple species, including all 10 species, the three focal species, for all possible combinations of three species, and for each species individually. Results: Our case study suggests that the focal species approach can work: the reserve system that minimized the expected loss of the focal species also minimized the expected species loss in the larger set of 10 species. How well the solution would perform for other species and given landscape dynamics remains unknown. Main conclusions: The focal species approach may have merit as a conservation short cut if placed within a quantitative decision-making framework, where the aspects of biodiversity for which the focal species act as proxies are explicitly defined, and success is determined by whether the use of the proxy results in the same decision. Our methods provide a framework for testing other surrogate approaches used in conservation decision-making and risk assessment. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Guidelines for using movement science to inform biodiversity policy

Substantial advances have been made in our understanding of the movement of species, including processes such as dispersal and migration. This knowledge has the potential to improve decisions about biodiversity policy and management, but it can be difficult for decision makers to readily access and integrate the growing body of movement science. This is, in part, due to a lack of synthesis of information that is sufficiently contextualized for a policy audience. Here, we identify key species movement concepts, including mechanisms, types, and moderators of movement, and review their relevance to (1) national biodiversity policies and strategies, (2) reserve planning and management, (3) threatened species protection and recovery, (4) impact and risk assessments, and (5) the prioritization of restoration actions. Based on the review, and considering recent developments in movement ecology, we provide a new framework that draws links between aspects of movement knowledge that are likely the most relevant to each biodiversity policy category. Our framework also shows that there is substantial opportunity for collaboration between researchers and government decision makers in the use of movement science to promote positive biodiversity outcomes.

Risk assessment of child-victim sex offenders for extended supervision in New Zealand

Recently enacted legislation in New Zealand, the Parole (Extended Supervision) Amendment Act 2004, allows for the imposition of up to 10 years of supervision in the community for child-victim sex offenders following their release from prison. The Act requires reports to be written specifically assessing the risk of sexual re-offending against children. This study examined the application of actuarial measures used by the New Zealand Department of Corrections in these assessments, including a computer-scored instrument based on static factors (the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale; ASRS) and a clinically-based judgement of dynamic risk factors (the SONAR). It was expected that a conservative approach would be taken in making recommendations for or against extended periods of supervision, such that a high score on either measure would predict a recommendation for extended supervision. It was found, however, that a more individualized approach was often taken, whereby a baseline assessment of risk as predicted by the ASRS was adjusted by clinicians based on SONAR ratings. Implications for the practice of risk assessment in sexual re-offending are discussed.

Sex offender risk assessment : consideration of human rights in community protection legislation

ObjectivesRisk assessments provided to judicial decision makers as a part of the current generation of legislation for protecting the public from sexual offenders can have a profound impact on the rights of individual offenders. This article will identify some of the human rights issues inherent in using the current assessment procedures to formulate and communicate risk as a forensic expert in cases involving civil commitment, preventive detention, extended supervision, or special conditions of parole. MethodBased on the current professional literature and applied experience in legal proceedings under community protection laws in the United States and New Zealand, potential threats to the rights of offenders are identified. Central to these considerations are issues of the accuracy of current risk assessment measures, communicating the findings of risk assessment appropriately to the court, and the availability of competent forensic mental health professionals in carrying out these functions. The role of the forensic expert is discussed in light of the competing demands of protecting individual human rights and community protection. ConclusionActuarial risk assessment represents the best practice for informing judicial decision makers in cases involving sex offenders, yet these measures currently demonstrate substantial limitations in predictive accuracy when applied to individual offenders. These limitations must be clearly articulated when reporting risk assessment findings. Sufficient risk assessment expertise should be available to provide a balanced application of community protection laws.

The effect of resistance training on functional capacity and quality of life in individuals with high and low number of metabolic risk factors

OBJECTIVE—There are limited data on the effects of resistance training on the capacity to perform activities of daily living (ADLs) and quality of life (QoL) for individuals with a high number of metabolic risk factors (HiMF). In this study, we examined the effect of resistance training on the capacity to perform ADLs and QoL in individuals with HiMF and compared any benefits with individuals with a low number of metabolic risk factors (LoMF).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—Fifty-five untrained individuals, aged 50.8 ± 6.5 years, were randomized to four groups: HiMF training (HiMFT), HiMF control, LoMF training (LoMFT), and LoMF control. At baseline and after 10 weeks of resistance training, participants underwent anthropometric measurements and assessments of aerobic power (Vo2peak), muscle strength, capacity to perform ADLs, and a self-perceived QoL questionnaire. A repeated-measures ANOVA was used to examine the effect of training over time among groups.

RESULTS—Training increased lean body mass in both HiMFT (P = 0.03) and LoMFT (P = 0.03) groups. Total fat content and Vo2peak improved in the LoMFT group only. Muscle strength improved in both training groups (P < 0.01). Time to complete ADLs was reduced by 8.8% in the LoMFT group (P < 0.01) and 9.7% in the HiMF group (P < 0.01). Only the HiMFT group reported improvement in QoL.

CONCLUSIONS— Resistance training improved muscle strength and the capacity to perform ADLs in individuals with HiMF and LoMF. Resistance training improved QoL for the HiMF group, and this result was independent of changes in body fat content or aerobic power. Longer training regimens may be needed to improve QoL in individuals with LoMF.