The probability model of peer-to-peer botnet propagation

Active Peer-to-Peer worms are great threat to the network security since they can propagate in automated ways and flood the Internet within a very short duration. Modeling a propagation process can help us to devise effective strategies against a worm's spread. This paper presents a study on modeling a worm's propagation probability in a P2P overlay network and proposes an optimized patch strategy for defenders. Firstly, we present a probability matrix model to construct the propagation of P2P worms. Our model involves three indispensible aspects for propagation: infected state, vulnerability distribution and patch strategy. Based on a fully connected graph, our comprehensive model is highly suited for real world cases like Code Red II. Finally, by inspecting the propagation procedure, we propose four basic tactics for defense of P2P botnets. The rationale is exposed by our simulated experiments and the results show these tactics are of effective and have considerable worth in being applied in real-world networks.

Contests with the probability of a draw : a stochastic foundation

This article proposes a stochastic foundation for the contest success function (CSF for short) with a richer structure on the set of possible outcomes of the contest. Specifically, the analysis allows for the possibility of a draw, so that no contestant can claim a victory over all other players. Under plausible conditions, this article not only discovers new functional forms of CSFs, but also shows the newly derived CSFs have very different properties in equilibrium to those of conventional CSFs. For example, in contrast to the CSFs discussed in the contest literature, which always generate a unique pure strategy Nash equilibrium, the newly discovered CSFs admit the possibility of multiple equilibria.

Probability distributions of number of children and maternal age at various order births using age-specific fertility rates by birth order

In this study, a simple analytical framework to find the probability distributions of number of children and maternal age at various order births by making use of data on age-specific fertility rates by birth order was proposed. The proposed framework is applicable to both the period and cohort fertility schedules. The most appealing point of the proposed framework is that it does not require stringent assumptions. The proposed framework has been applied to the cohort birth order-specific fertility schedules of India and its different regions and period birth order-specific fertility schedules, including the United States of America, Russia, and the Netherlands, to demonstrate its usefulness.

Conceptual overlap between moral norms and anticipated regret in the prediction of intention: implications for theory of planned behaviour research

Moral norms and anticipated regret are widely used extensions to the theory of planned behaviour, yet there is some evidence to suggest that these constructs may conceptually overlap as predictors of intention. Two health-related behaviours with distinct moral implications (Study 1: organ donation registration, N = 352 and Study 2: condom usage, N = 1815) were therefore examined to ascertain whether moral norms and anticipated regret are indeed conceptually distinct. While evidence consistent with conceptual overlap was identified in Study 1, the evidence for such overlap in Study 2 was more ambiguous. In Study 3, a meta-analysis of existing literature revealed that the relationship between moral norms and anticipated regret was moderated by the extent of the moral implications arising from the behaviour under examination. Taken together, these findings suggest that conceptual overlap between moral norms and anticipated regret is more likely to occur among behaviours with obvious moral implications. Researchers wishing to examine the predictive utility of moral norms and anticipated regret among such behaviours would therefore be advised to aggregate these measures to form a composite variable (personal norms).

Overlap between autistic and schizotypal personality traits is not accounted for by anxiety and depression.

Autism spectrum and schizophrenia spectrum disorders are classified separately in the DSM-5, yet research indicates that these two disorders share overlapping features. The aim of the present study was to examine the overlap between autistic and schizotypal personality traits and whether anxiety and depression act as confounding variables in this relationship within a non-clinical population. One hundred and forty-four adults completed the Autism Spectrum Quotient and the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales-21. A number of associations were seen between autistic and schizotypal personality traits. However, negative traits were the only schizotypal feature to uniquely predict global autistic traits, thus highlighting the importance of interpersonal qualities in the overlap of autistic and schizotypal characteristics. The inclusion of anxiety and depression did not alter relationships between autistic and schizotypal traits, indicating that anxiety and depression are not confounders of this relationship. These findings have important implications for the conceptualisation of both disorders.

Pan-atlantic analysis of the overlap of a highly migratory species, the leatherback turtle, with pelagic longline fisheries

Large oceanic migrants play important roles in ecosystems, yet many species are of conservation concern as a result of anthropogenic threats, of which incidental capture by fisheries is frequently identified. The last large populations of the leatherback turtle, Dermochelys coriacea, occur in the Atlantic Ocean, but interactions with industrial fisheries could jeopardize recent positive population trends, making bycatch mitigation a priority. Here, we perform the first pan-Atlantic analysis of spatio-temporal distribution of the leatherback turtle and ascertain overlap with longline fishing effort. Data suggest that the Atlantic probably consists of two regional management units: northern and southern (the latter including turtles breeding in South Africa). Although turtles and fisheries show highly diverse distributions, we highlight nine areas of high susceptibility to potential bycatch (four in the northern Atlantic and five in the southern/equatorial Atlantic) that are worthy of further targeted investigation and mitigation. These are reinforced by reports of leatherback bycatch at eight of these sites. International collaborative efforts are needed, especially from nations hosting regions where susceptibility to bycatch is likely to be high within their exclusive economic zone (northern Atlantic: Cape Verde, Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Mauritania, Senegal, Spain, USA and Western Sahara; southern Atlantic: Angola, Brazil, Namibia and UK) and from nations fishing in these high-susceptibility areas, including those located in international waters.