Comparing different economic linkages among commodity futures

Gasoline (GA) and kerosene (KO) are extracted from crude oil (CO), such that the three fuel commodities share a chemical link. On the other hand, GA also shares an industrial link with natural rubber (NR) and palladium (PA) as complementary commodities that are heavily consumed by the automobile industry. We contrast the information content embedded in the two economic linkages. Focusing on TOCOM futures contracts written on the five commodities and centering on GA, we confirm that incremental information provided by either CO, KO or NR, PA over a buy-and-hold strategy and a naive forecast, are both statistically and economically significant. While the chemical link forecast is more profitable, a double-link forecast generated from a VECM with two cointegrating vectors (KO-GA and GANR prices) outperforms both single-link forecasts based on risk-adjusted profit net of transaction costs. Further comparisons against the profitability of commodity-based momentum strategies documented in Erb and Harvey (2006) and Miffre and Rallis (2007) show that the double-link forecast holds its own against the most profitable of the 75 momentum strategies considered. This strongly suggests that not only are there incremental profits to be gained from harnessing and combining economic links among commodity futures, the resultant incremental profits are economically significant against other proven commodity-based trading strategies in the existing literature.

Volatility linkages and spillovers in stock and bond markets : some international evidence

This study investigates the transmission of market-wide volatility between the equity markets and bond markets of Japan, Germany, the U. K., and the U. S. To measure the volatility transmission, the BEKK- a decomposition approach to the multivariate GARCH (1,1) model, is used to examine the cross-market contemporaneous effect of information arrival. Our results suggest that within the domestic cross markets, the volatility transmission is undirectional from the stock market to the bond market. Evidence from international cross-market analysis is mixed, with strong evidence on volatility spillover among these international stock markets, but weak evidence between international stock and bond markets. In addition, there are significant bi-directional volatility transmissions between stock markets in Germany and the U. K., and between Germany and the U. S. The volatility transmissions among these markets suggest that the international diversification of bonds is not prevalent.

Australian and US interest rate swap markets : comparison and linkages

We investigate and compare the determinants of US and Australian interest rate swap spreads and the linkages between these markets. The slope of the risk-free term structure is the most significant determinant and its importance is greater for longer terms to maturity. Interest rate levels and, in Australia, the default premium also have some impact. The influences of interest rate volatility, the liquidity premium and (in the USA) the default premium are small or negligible. We hypothesise, and our evidence confirms, that the US swap market significantly affects the Australian swap market but not vice-versa.

lnvestigating spatial linkages of construction prices in Australia's regions

Linkages among different construction markets have attracted great of attention from the construction economist. With notable exceptions, most of this infestation has carried out by using input-output analysis. Interactions among regional construction markets have been discussed in few studies and none of them investigate spatial effects on the regional construction markets. This study employed spatial econometric techniques, spatial autocorrelation and convergence tests, to analysis interactions and linkages among construction price indices in Australian six states and two territories. The empirical results indicate the presence of significant positive spatial correlation between the construction prices in Australian eight construction markets and the degree of dependence decrease sufficiently quickly as the space between units increase. The results of convergence test further present evidence on "ripple effect" in the construction prices in Australian regional markets and the changes in regional construction price would positively influence neighboring states first, and then spread out into others, and then the regional prices converge and reach a long-run equilibrium in the following quarters. Urban development policymakers and construction developers could benefit from the analysis of spatial linkages in regional construction markets.

Spatial linkages among Australian construction markets

The linkages among different construction markets have recently attracted much attention from construction economists. The interactions among regional construction markets have been discussed in a few studies, most of which have been carried out by using input-output methods, and none of them investigated spatial effects on the regional construction markets. This study employed spatial econometric techniques, including spatial autocorrelation and convergence tests, to analyse interactions and linkages among construction price indices in Australian six states and two territories. The empirical results indicate the presence of significant positive spatial correlation among the construction prices in Australian eight construction markets and the degree of dependence decreasing sufficiently quickly as the space between regions increases. The results of convergence test further provide evidence of existence of a ripple effect in construction prices among the Australian regional markets and the changes in construction prices in a state would first positively influence neighbouring states, and then spread out into other non-neighbouring states or territories.

A new class of eight-membered Sn2P2O4 heterocycles. Crystal structure and electrolytic dissociation in solution of cyclo-[R2Sn(OPPh2O)2SnR2](O3SCF3)2(R=Me, t-Bu)

The syntheses of cyclo-[R₂Sn(OPPh₂O)₂SnR₂](O₃SCF₃)₂ (R = Me (1), t-Bu (2)) by the consecutive reaction of R₂SnO (R = Me, t-Bu) with triflic acid and diphenylphosphinic acid are presented. In the solid state, 1 and 2 were investigated by ¹¹⁹Sn MAS and ³¹P MAS NMR spectroscopy as well as X-ray crystallography and appear to exist as ion pairs of cyclo-[R₂Sn(OPPh₂O)₂SnR₂]²⁺ dications and triflate anions. In solution, 1 and 2 are involved in extensive equilibria processes featuring cationic diorganotin(IV) species with Sn-O-P linkages, as evidenced by ¹¹⁹Sn and ³¹P NMR spectroscopy, electrospray mass spectrometry, and conductivity measurements.

A linkage measure framework for the real estate sector

Linkage is one of the most important factors for gaining competitive advantage. Information on linkages is essential to understanding the structure of an economy, which is in turn important in formulating industry policies and business strategies. The hypothetical extraction method is used to measure the linkages by extracting a sector hypothetically from an economic system in the literature. In the previous research, however, the internal linkage (linkage within a sector) and sectoral linkages (linkage between two specific sectors) are ignored, and there is not a comprehensive framework to measure the linkages of a specific sector. Using the recently published Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development input-output database at constant prices, this paper aims to resolve these two shortcomings and thereby propose a linkage measure framework to explore the linkages between the real estate sector and other sectors from a new angle. The relative and absolute linkages are termed and the total, backward, forward, internal and sectoral linkage indicators are formulated to investigate the linkages of the real estate sector from all directions. Empirical results show an increasing trend of these linkages, which confirms the increasing role of the real estate sector with economic maturity over the examined period. This framework also can be employed in other sectors.

Economic indicator comparisons of international real estate sectors using the OECD input-output database

With its growing share in national economies, the real estate sector has been considered a vital contributor of economic development. Research efforts are needed in order to gain a better comprehension of the national specificities of the real estate sector and to identify its role in economic development. Due to limited comparable data, the economic indicators of real estate sectors are hard to compare between different countries. This paper aims to explore the quantitative interdependence amongst the real estate sector and other industries in developed economies using input-output analysis, and to investigate their significant linkages. Based on the recently published Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) input-output database at constant prices, the analysis focuses on the real estate's escalating role in terms ofshares in gross output, value added and gross national product. With emphasis on the relative role of manufacturing, construction and services inputs, this paper also highlights the strengths of the push and pull of the real estate sector.

Children's participation in music : connecting the cultural contexts - an Australian perspective

The cultural contexts of home, school and community all have important parts to play in the music education of children, but at present in Australia, these three entities are insufficiently connected on a number of fronts, not the least being an understanding about the purpose(s) of young people's engagement with music. This paper puts forward two specific proposals for action aimed to help build linkages among the three cultural contexts and ensure young people's on-going engagement with music. These proposals, which call on the education sector to assume leadership for action, have implications for policy makers, school personnel, as well as parents, individual artists and community arts organisations.