What drives stock markets over short horizons? Evidence from emerging markets

The goal of this paper is to examine the importance of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining variations in stock prices for Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea using a trend-cycle decomposition technique. This study is novel in that in measuring the impact of shocks we not only impose common trend restrictions but also common cycle restrictions. We later undertake a post-sample forecasting exercise to confirm the efficiency gains from imposing common cycle restrictions. We find that over short horizons, transitory shocks are the dominant source of variations in stock prices for South Korea, while permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in stock price of Singapore and Taiwan.

Interconnectedness, multiplexity and the global student : the role of blogging and micro blogging in opening students horizons

The authors explore the world of blogging and micro blogging (twitter) as a means of mediating engagement with students, lawyers, academics and other interested and interesting people around the world. Through the use of auto-ethnographic case studies of their own experiences with blogging and micro blogging tools, the authors propose that far from being a distraction from student learning, these tools have the potential to open up an international professional collaborative space beyond the physical classroom, for both academics and our students, from their first year experience through to practical legal training and continuing professional development.

Older women and craft: extending educational horizons in considering wellbeing

While the social work literature is broader and more holistic than many disciplines, we undoubtedly still limit the knowledge we draw upon in ways that stifle our creativity in conceptualising and attempting to facilitate wellbeing, which flows on to limit our teaching. In particular, the significance to wellbeing of place and social space, the value of informal networks to generate support and opportunities for reciprocity, and the inherent therapeutic value of creative activity appears to be neglected. In this paper we draw upon a small Australian research study around older women and craftmaking to explore how learning from diverse disciplines, such as critical gerontology and textile making, can illuminate our understanding of wellbeing. We relate this discussion to examining notions of ageing that go beyond a focus on illness and deterioration, to enhance positive and diverse concepts of health in the context of everyday life. We then discuss the implications for social work education, with particular emphasis on ageing, and argue that by engaging with a diverse range of disciplines, we are able to think about, teach and advocate for wellbeing in more expansive and useful ways.

Hope seen through the eyes of 10 Australian young people

Aim. The aim of this paper is to report the findings of a phenomenological study that explored hope in 10 young people in Australia.

Background. Evidence suggests many Australian young people are in crisis. Examination of key reports that detail the incidence of suicide, early drug-taking behaviours, homelessness, self-harm behaviours, joblessness, depressive disorders, crime statistics and alcohol abuse suggest that many of today's young people have lost resilience as well as vital connections to their community.

Method. Two methods were employed to encourage the participants to reflect on their experiences of hope – what it is and what it meant to them. The first was to supply participants with a disposable colour film camera and ask them to take pictures that, in their view, showed hope. The second was participation in an in-depth interview that was prompted in part, by their photographs. Interview audiotapes were transcribed verbatim and analysis of the text used the Turner method. The data were collected in 2002.

Findings. Four horizons of hope were revealed: at-one-with; a driving force; having choices; and connecting and being connected. These horizons are discussed, showing how, or if, the literature treats these dimensions of hope. Perspectives are offered on how they might be considered by nurses who are charged with caring for today's young people.

Conclusion. Registered Nurses who work with young people must understand the phenomenon of hope from their unique perspective before they can offer appropriate hope-facilitating strategies.

Lower permian oncolites from South China: implications for equatorial sea-level responses to late palaeozoic Gondwanan glaciation

The oncoid-bearing Chuanshan Formation is a regionally extensive carbonate deposit of predominantly Asselian to early Sakmarian (Early Permian) age in South China, occupying an area of some 500,000 km2. Throughout South China, the oncoid-bearing horizons are generally stable and broadly comparable in lithology, fossil content and the morphology of the oncoid grains. Four types of microfacies are recognized from the oncolite succession and overall they suggest a moderate- to high-energy, wave-agitated shallow marine carbonate platform environment. An analysis of the stratigraphic distribution of oncoid grain size, density, thickness and the bedding structures of the oncolite beds and the number of coating laminae indicate the presence of metre-scale cyclothems, suggestive of possible high-frequency cycles of sea-level fluctuation. Compared to carbonate successions above and below that lack oncolites, and in conjunction with evidence from sequence stratigraphic and isotopic geochemical analyses of coeval carbonate deposits in South China and elsewhere, the origin of the Chuanshan oncolites is linked to a drastic drop in global sea-level at the Pennsylvanian–Permian boundary, that can be correlated closely in timing with the zenith of the Late Palaeozoic Gondwanan glaciation. It is further suggested that the eustatic changes apparent from the deposition of the Chuanshan oncolites and similar coeval deposits in lower palaeolatitudes were coupled with, and influenced by, the contemporaneous high-latitude Gondwanan glaciation, the largest and longest known such event in Phanerozoic Earth history.

Can the use of foreign currency derivatives explain variations in foreign exchange exposure? Evidence from Australian companies

We investigate the role of foreign currency derivatives (FCD) in alleviating foreign exchange rate exposure of Australian firms. While there is some evidence that the use of FCD reduces the level of ex-post short-term exposure, such an effect is absent with regard to the degree of foreign operations. Our results support the view that FCDs are used to hedge existing exchange rate exposures and that Australian firms, generally, are extensively exposed to currency fluctuations in the long run. While monthly exposure appears to be a function of a firm's size and financial hedging, exchange rate exposure of shorter horizons (1 and 3 months) appears to be negatively related to a firm's price earnings ratio (proxying growth opportunities)—thereby supporting the ‘underinvestment’ hypothesis. Further, the exposure of longer horizons (12 and 24 months) is positively related to a firm's liquidity, supporting the view that liquidity is a substitute for hedging.

Do retail option traders know better about market volatility?

This paper examines the informational content and predictive power of implied volatility over different forecasting horizons in a sample of European covered warrants traded in the Hong Kong and Singapore markets. The empirical results show that time-series-based volatility forecasts outperform implied volatility forecast as a predictor of future volatility. The finding also suggests that implied volatility is biased and informationally inefficient. The results are attributable to the fact in Hong Kong and Singapore the covered warrants markets are dominated by retail investors, who tend to use covered warrants' leverage to speculate on the price movements of the underlying rather than to express their view on volatility.

Late Paleozoic depositional history of the Tarim basin, northwest China: an integration of biostratigraphic and lithostratigraphic constraints

This study provides the first detailed lithostratigraphic and biostratigraphic constraints for improving stratigraphic resolution for hydrocarbon prospecting and exploration in the Tarim basin. A total of 49 stratigraphic units (38 formations and 11 members), ranging in age from the latest Devonian to Permian, are reviewed or redefined in terms of nomenclatures, lithology, age constraints, and lateral distributions based on the detailed field works or newly published data. Of these, the Piqiang Formation (new formation) is proposed to include the reefal carbonates of Asselian-Sakmarian age from the northern Tarim. The subsurface upper Paleozoic stratigraphic framework of the desert areas of the basin is also established for the first time. The high-resolution, basinwide stratigraphic correlations reveal that the sedimentation of the basin in the late Paleozoic was extremely uneven. Of these, the Famennian to Changhsingian successions are completely recorded in the south-western margin areas of the basin. Here, five eustatic sedimentary cycles are well recognizable, suggesting the sedimentation was more eustatically controlled and little affected by local tectonism. The late Paleozoic successions of both Kalpin and Taklimakan regions are commonly interrupted by major hiatuses at various horizons, suggesting that the sedimentation was apparently modified by local tectonism. Of these, the northward movement of the Tarim block and its subsequent collision with the Yili microcontinent (part of the Kazakhstan plate) may be principally accountable for the discrepancy in the sedimentation of the various regions in the basin in the late Paleozoic.

For goodness sake! Postlogographically de-(dis)positioning education research

How are education researchers and their research now positioned? Where are education research and researchers now positioned in the public/private debate? What is the position of practitioner research in these circumstances? My paper introduces 'post logography' as a researching trope for perturbing structuralist analytic methods towards interpreting post structuralising complexities that challenge the 'positioning' of education/research/researchers.

I discuss interpreting researching with and in (with-in) educating as intertwining ways, for turning the analytical objectivity that 'positions' subjective 'facts' as essentialised 'goods', towards exploring generative states of 'goodness'.

Education and its research are typically cast as separate constructs (like teaching and outcomes) for defining the subjectification of educational objects as valuable 'goods' - especially those with private economic value.

I argue that researched educational 'goods' are mostly teaching and outcomes focussed, and mainly privately positioned, whereas researching with-in educating for 'goodness' concerns a public disposition of exploring-learning-generativity for social knowing-acting.

I am theorising that through postlogographically de-positioning the predominance of 'facts' as private 'goods', and thereby recognising interpretive states concerning and generating 'goodness', the reductive polarisation of education/research, public/private, theorist/practitioner turns towards understanding complex continua for exploring-learning-generativity, which introduce new horizons of significance for social knowing-acting.

Carboniferous brachiopods from the "Levipustula Fauna" in central-western Argentina : biostratigraphic, palaeoclimatic, and palaeobiogeographic implications

The “Levipustula fauna” is a relatively diverse fossil assemblage composed of brachiopods, bivalves, bryozoans, gastropods and crinoids that appears in glaciomarine sequences related to the Carboniferous glacial event that affected the central-western Argentinean basins. Brachiopods that characterize this fauna have been studied in some of the classical localities of the Argentine Precordillera in San Juan province.

In the Hoyada Verde Formation, the “Levipustula fauna” is usually located immediately above the glacial diamictite horizons and appears to be associated with the mudstones facies of the postglacial transgression. From a palaeoecological study, three brachiopod subfaunas are distinguished in this formation: the lower “Neospirifer” (“Trigonotretidae” gen. nov.) subfauna, above which the more diversified Kitakamithyris subfauna occurs, and the upper Levipustula subfauna, with the dominant species being attributed to Levipustula levis Maxwell. The Hoyada Verde fauna, as well those identified in the La Capilla Formation (Cerro El Morado locality), have been proposed as the typical “Levipustula fauna”. However, in the Leoncito Formation, the “Levipustula fauna” occurs in sandstones horizons located below the glacial diamictite beds. This fauna is poorly diversified and the brachiopods are characterized by “Neospirifer” (“Trigonotretidae” gen. nov.)-Septosyringothyris assemblage and Levipustula is not abundant. This fauna has been considered a colder “pre-interglacial fauna”.

The significant taxonomic, palaeoecologic and taphonomic variations of the “Levipustula fauna”, as well as its position in the glacial sequences, suggest an important palaeoenvironmental control related to Carboniferous glacial dynamics. From the palaeobiogeographic viewpoint, this fauna shows the highest affinity with the Eastern Australian basins from where it was previously described.

Common trends and common cycles in per capita GDP : the case of the G7 Countries, 1870-2001

In this paper we analyze per capita incomes of the G7 countries using the common cycles test developed by Vahid and Engle (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 8:341–360, 1993) and extended by Hecq et al. (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 62:511–532, 2000; Econometric Reviews, 21:273–307, 2002) and the common trend test developed by Johansen (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12:231–254, 1988). Our main contribution is that we impose the common cycle and common trend restrictions in decomposing the innovations into permanent and transitory components. Our main finding is permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in incomes for the G7 countries over short time horizons, and is in sharp contrast to the bulk of the recent literature. We attribute this to the greater forecasting accuracy achieved, which we later confirm through performing a post sample forecasting exercise, from the variance decomposition analysis.

An investigation of the behaviour of Australia's business cycle

In this paper we examine the relative importance of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining variations in income, consumption and investment at business cycle horizons for Australia. We use the common trend–common cycle restrictions to estimate a variance decomposition of shocks, and find that over short horizons the bulk of the variations in income and investment are due to permanent shocks, while transitory shocks explain the bulk of the variations in consumption. The former finding is consistent with real business cycle models which attribute business cycles to aggregate supply shocks, while the findings for consumption are consistent with the Keynesian view, which attributes business cycles to aggregate demand shocks.

A structural VAR analysis of electricity consumption and real GDP : evidence from the G7 countries

In this paper, we depart from the literature on electricity consumption–real GDP in that for the first time we examine the reaction of real GDP to shocks in electricity consumption. To achieve this goal, we use the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model and examine the impact of electricity consumption shocks on real GDP for the G7 countries. We find that except for the USA, electricity consumption has a statistically significant positive impact on real GDP over short horizons. This finding implies that except for the USA, electricity conservation policies will hurt real GDP in the G7 countries.