Spiritual direction and survivors of sexual abuse

In recent years, both catholica and protestant churches in Australia, the US and elsewhere have found themselves embroiled in allegations of sexual abuse-allegations which have often been substantiated.  Reports in the secular and the religious press of these allegations have been so numerous as to have become a constant blur on the horizon.  We have heard much about investigations, about the tragedies affecting individuals and communities, about financial settlements, and about clergy being ousted from pastoral roles.  But after the public scandals have died down, the paim for many lives on.

Robust terminal attitude navigation for autonomous vehicles

Here we define the terminal attitude of the pursuer with respect to a target and present a LQR and H¿ control approach to solving the problem of pursuer achieving a desired terminal attack/approach angle. The intercept or engagement criteria is defined in terms of both minimizing the miss distance and controlling the pursuer's body attitude with respect to the target at the terminal point. This approach in comparison to previous approaches consider the relativistic approach of the pursuer with respect to the target as opposed the absolute velocities of the two dynamic bodies, and have possible applications ranging from autonomous vehicle entry in to a mother craft to nossle engagements in on-flight refuelling or even in precision missile guidance. Here we also suitably formulate the H¿ control ideas directly applicable to the underlying problem and presents both state feedback and output feed back results for the case of finite horizon and non-zero initial conditions together with a optimal parameter value to achieve a desired terminal characteristic in terms of the original weighting parameters.

Problem of precision missile guidance: LQR and H‡ control frameworks

Addressed here is the precision missile guidance problem where the successful intercept criterion has been defined in terms of both minimizing the miss distance and controlling the missile body attitude with respect to the target at the terminal point. We show that the H∞ control theory, when suitably modified, provides an effective framework for the precision missile guidance problem. The existence of feedback controllers (guidance laws) is investigated for the case of finite horizon and non-zero initial conditions. Both state feedback and output feedback implementations are explored.

Role of social power relations in gift giving on Valentine's day

This study investigates motives for gift giving by young males on Valentine's Day and advances previous research on this ritual by controlling for the giving context (occasion and relationship). The study is consistent with previous work by Goodwin et al. (1990) which found that motivations based on obligation, self-interest and altruism do indeed exist. More significantly, however, this study points to the finding that individual motivations for the gift-giving ritual on Valentine's Day may be more intricately intertwined and have deeper manifestations in the perceived social power relationship between the genders. The study recommends that marketers delve beyond the immediate horizon of individual motivations and become even more acutely aware of the 'intrinsic social power messages' that arise from the conjoint influences of motivations. This would have great potential for marketing even more meaningful gift products to both givers and receivers.

Optimal lag-length choice in stable and unstable VAR models under situations of homoscedasticity and ARCH

The performance of different information criteria - namely Akaike, corrected Akaike (AICC), Schwarz-Bayesian (SBC), and Hannan-Quinn - is investigated so as to choose the optimal lag length in stable and unstable vector autoregressive (VAR) models both when autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) is present and when it is not. The investigation covers both large and small sample sizes. The Monte Carlo simulation results show that SBC has relatively better performance in lag-choice accuracy in many situations. It is also generally the least sensitive to ARCH regardless of stability or instability of the VAR model, especially in large sample sizes. These appealing properties of SBC make it the optimal criterion for choosing lag length in many situations, especially in the case of financial data, which are usually characterized by occasional periods of high volatility. SBC also has the best forecasting abilities in the majority of situations in which we vary sample size, stability, variance structure (ARCH or not), and forecast horizon (one period or five). frequently, AICC also has good lag-choosing and forecasting properties. However, when ARCH is present, the five-period forecast performance of all criteria in all situations worsens.

Estimating exchange rate responsiveness to shocks

The goal of this paper is to examine the importance of permanent and transitory shocks using a more efficient trend-cycle decomposition of the real exchange rate series. Our main contribution is that in measuring the impact of shocks, we not only impose common trend restrictions but also common cycle restrictions. We later confirm, through a post sample forecasting exercise, the efficiency gains from imposing common cycle restrictions. Our results indicate that permanent shocks are responsible for the bulk of the real exchange rate variations for Japan, Italy, Germany, France, and the UK vis-à-vis the US dollar over short horizons. For Canada, however, transitory shocks are dominant over the short horizon. In sum, while for Japan, France, and Italy, around 15% of the variation in real exchange rate is due to transitory shocks, for Canada, Germany and the UK, over 25% of the variations over the short horizon are due to transitory shocks. Thus, we claim that the role of transitory shocks should not be ignored.

The cost-effectiveness of Australia's active after-school communities program

The objective of this study was to assess from a societal perspective the cost-effectiveness of the Active After-school Communities (AASC) program, a key plank of the former Australian Government's obesity prevention program. The intervention was modeled for a 1-year time horizon for Australian primary school children as part of the Assessing Cost-Effectiveness in Obesity (ACE-Obesity) project. Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) benefits (based on calculated effects on BMI post-intervention) and cost-offsets (consequent savings from reductions in obesity-related diseases) were tracked until the cohort reached the age of 100 years or death. The reference year was 2001, and a 3% discount rate was applied. Simulation-modeling techniques were used to present a 95% uncertainty interval around the cost-effectiveness ratio. An assessment of second-stage filter criteria ("equity," "strength of evidence," "acceptability to stakeholders," "feasibility of implementation," "sustainability," and "side-effects") was undertaken by a stakeholder Working Group to incorporate additional factors that impact on resource allocation decisions. The estimated number of children new to physical activity after-school and therefore receiving the intervention benefit was 69,300. For 1 year, the intervention cost is Australian dollars (AUD) 40.3 million (95% uncertainty interval AUD 28.6 million; AUD 56.2 million), and resulted in an incremental saving of 450 (250; 770) DALYs. The resultant cost-offsets were AUD 3.7 million, producing a net cost per DALY saved of AUD 82,000 (95% uncertainty interval AUD 40,000; AUD 165,000). Although the program has intuitive appeal, it was not cost-effective under base-case modeling assumptions. To improve its cost-effectiveness credentials as an obesity prevention measure, a reduction in costs needs to be coupled with increases in the number of participating children and the amount of physical activity undertaken.

Economic evaluation of a skin cancer prevention program in Australia : past achievements and future prospects

Objectives
Australia has the highest incidence of skin cancer in the world. Skin cancer prevention campaigns have been implemented in Australia for over two decades. The most notable is under the brand name, SunSmart. The aim of the current study is to assess the cost-effectiveness of SunSmart in the past and the potential cost-effectiveness of an ongoing national SunSmart program with optimal investment in the future.

Methods
An economic evaluation from a health sector perspective was conducted using the reduction in skin cancer incidence attributable to the SunSmart program modelled as the primary end-point. Historical SunSmart program expenditures were obtained from three representative states in three latitude zones, covering different levels of UVR exposure. Melanoma incidence rates from the three representative state cancer registers were used to model the health outcomes. Program effectiveness was assessed by the comparison between the well-resourced SunSmart state (Victoria) and the under-invested states (New South Wales and Queensland). Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer (NMSC) was modelled based on national survey results. 2003 was chosen as the reference year and future costs/outcomes over a 20 year time horizon were discounted at 3%.
The future level of investment in a national SunSmart was chosen to strengthen current practice by increasing current investment to a realistic and achievable level. This conservative increase in investment (expressed as ‘$ per capita’) reflected the investment level that has been achieved in Victoria over sustained periods. To model the potential cost-effectiveness of an upgraded national SunSmart program, a conservative approach was taken, whereby the same magnitude of effectiveness from 1988 to 2003 was applied to future skin cancer incidence.

Results
SunSmart in Victoria has saved 22,300 life-years, averted 27,900 disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs)(discounted) since its introduction in 1988 and achieved an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $AUD 680 per life-year saved (LYS) and $AUD 540 per DALY averted. When the cost-offset from the estimated reduction in skin cancer treatment costs were taken into account, SunSmart achieved ‘dominance’. The net cost of SunSmart in the past was an estimated saving of $AUD 93 million. An upgraded national SunSmart for the next 20 years would save 91,000 life-years and avert 122,000 DALYs (discounted), involving an increased investment level from the current $AUD 0.07 per capita to the historical average of $AUD 0.28 per capita. The ICER for the upgraded SunSmart program was estimated at $AUD 940 per LYS and $AUD 700 per DALY averted. When the cost-offset is included, the program achieves dominance with a cost saving of $AUD 115 million – an estimated $AUD 2.32 return for every dollar invested between 2003 and 2022.

Conclusions
This study demonstrates that a sustained modest investment in skin cancer control is likely to be excellent value-for-money. While the available data base is certainly not prefect, key parameters would have to change dramatically for this conclusion to be challenged.

Efficiency and unbiasedness in the Indian stock index futures market

This paper explores potential efficiency and unbiasedness as well as the degree of efficiency in stock index futures of an emerging market using both monthly and daily data. Besides analyzing efficiency and unbiasedness with cointegration and error correction model, the degree of efficiency is further investigated after explicitly modeling the underlying state of the market (expansion or contraction) through the first-order Markov switching set-up. The results show that a relatively longer two-month horizon is more effective in eliminating arbitrage opportunities than the short run (one-month and daily) futures.

Asset-selling problem with an uncertain deadline, quitting offer, and search skipping option

This paper presents a discrete-time sequential stochastic asset-selling problem with an infinite planning horizon, where the process of selling the asset may reach a deadline at any point in time with a probability. It is assumed that a quitting offer is available at every point in time and search skipping is permitted. Thus, decisions must be made as to whether or not to accept the quitting offer, to accept an appearing buyer’s offer, and to conduct a search for a buyer. The main purpose of this paper is to clarify the properties of the optimal decision rules in relation to the model’s parameters.

Dynamically opted protection envelope (DOPE) - A cost-effective strategy of insuring an investment portfolio

Popular ways of hedging downside risk of a stock portfolio is by means of a constant proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI) strategy or by means of an options-based portfolio insurance strategy (OBPI). However both have drawbacks in terms of practical applicability given transaction costs. Moreover they are not useful in times of very low liquidity e.g. in a market crash. Here we shall first review the common portfolio insurance techniques and then posit an alternative approach using a zero-coupon bond to extract downside coverage to the extent desired by an investor. While the posited strategy will not guarantee full downside protection for the entire investment horizon, it is unaffected by transaction costs resulting from need to periodically reallocate funds and is a lot easier to implement practically compared to options-based strategies. Unlike CPPI and OBPI, it will work in a crash situation too.

Profiling contemporary marketing practices in Bangladesh

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore how different types of firms relate to their markets in
terms of contemporary marketing practices (CMP) in an emerging country, Bangladesh. Additionally,
the paper also examines the various marketing performance measures used by Bangladeshi firms.
Design/methodology/approach – The CMP survey was used on 165 marketing managers chosen from
a range of industrial sectors as a basis for data collection. Data were analyzed using cluster analysis and other descriptive statistics.
Findings – The study found that a pluralistic marketing approach is predominant among the majority of
the Bangladeshi firms, while few other firms also practise transactional marketing. Results also reveal
that Bangladeshi firms apply a blend of performance indicators rather than relying on specific financialor
client-based measures to evaluate business success.
Research limitations/implications – The present study provides a benchmark for future studies on
CMP in emerging/developing countries and inspires further research designed to deepen
understanding about how marketing is practised in emerging markets and how they may differ from
developed markets.
Originality/value – Since very few studies have been conducted regarding CMP by incorporating both
business-to-business and consumer goods/services firms for a specific country into an emerging
market, this study adds a new dimension to the horizon of CMPs.

Discovery of Ordovician-Devonian strata in the south of the Qiangtang area, Tibet

Low-grade metamorphic rocks are exposed extensively in the Qiangtang area, Tibet. There is a great dispute about the age of the strata because of no reliable fossil evidence and other chronological evidence. Cephalopods, crinoids, graptolites and tentaculites fossils are discovered at Tashi Hill north of Gangtang Co. Primary identification indicates that the cephalopod is Sinoceras,Michelinoceras, Wennanoceras, Archigeisonoceras etc. and the crinoid is Monograptus. The Sinoceras-Michelinoceras assemblage is the key fossil assemblage of Mid Ordovician Baotaan age, which reflects the Mid Ordovician aspects. There are several tens of meters of fossil-free clastic rocks below the Mid Ordovician cephalopod-bearing horizon, which are probably Ordovician sediments. The discovery of Ordovician-Devonian biotas and strata provide new important evidence for the stratigraphic division and correlation and the study of the tectonic evolution of the Qiangtang area.

Earliest Wuchiapingian (Lopingian, Late Permian) brachiopods in southern Hunan, South China : implications for the Pre-Lopingian crisis and onset of Lopingian recovery / radiation

The uppermost 5-15 m of the Douling Formation in the southern Hunan area. South China, yields a diverse fauna comprised of ammonoids, bivalves, and brachiopods. The brachiopods reported in this paper consist of 51 species in 34 genera and are dominated by the Lopingian (Late Permian) species associated with a few species persisting from the underlying Maokouan (Late Guadalupian). This fauna is of earliest Wuchiapingian in age as precisely constrained by the associated conodont Clarkina postbitteri postbitteri and the Guadalupian-type ammonoid fauna of the Roadoceras-Doulingoceras Zone in the brachiopod horizon. The discovery of the Lopingian species-dominated brachiopod fauna in the earliest Wuchiapingian in southern Hunan suggests a much less pronounced effect of the pre-Lopingian crisis (end-Guadalupian mass extinction) than the end-Changhsingian mass extinction in terms of brachiopods, a contemporaneous onset of the Lopingian recovery/radiation during the pre-Lopingian crisis period, and taxonomic selectivity of the pre-Lopingian crisis in terms of different fossil groups. New taxa are Echinauris doulingensis n. sp., Pararigbyella quadrilobata n. gen. and n. sp. and P. doulingensis n. gen. and n. sp.

Expansion and equity in Australian higher education : three propositions for new relations

This article outlines three broad propositions for student equity in Australian higher education (HE), arising from the Australian Government's recent policy announcement to expand and widen student participation. The first is that a new relationship between student demand for places and their supply is on the horizon, unlike any other in Australia's history. Specifically, demand will struggle to match the intended supply. Given these new arrangements between government, institution and applicant, the article's second proposition is that governments and universities will need to develop a new regard for the people they seek to attract. And, following on from this, they will need to pay more attention to the nature of HE and its appeal to people who traditionally have not been all that interested. Informing this account are an examination of statistical data, analysis of university outreach programs, and a comparison of current principles of effective teaching in HE. The article concludes that advancing student equity in the current context will require new relations between institutions and students, which include a more sophisticated appreciation for the diversity of students and their communities, and for what they potentially contribute to HE.