Prediction intervals for short-term wind farm power generation forecasts

Quantification of uncertainties associated with wind power generation forecasts is essential for optimal management of wind farms and their successful integration into power systems. This paper investigates two neural network-based methods for direct and rapid construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for short-term forecasting of power generation in wind farms. The lower upper bound estimation and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainties associated with forecasts. The effectiveness and efficiency of these two general methods for uncertainty quantification is examined using twenty four month data from a wind farm in Australia. PIs with a confidence level of 90% are constructed for four forecasting horizons: five, ten, fifteen, and thirty minutes. Quantitative measures are applied for objective evaluation and unbiased comparison of PI quality. Demonstrated results indicate that reliable PIs can be constructed in a short time without resorting to complicate computational methods or models. Also quantitative comparison reveals that bootstrap PIs are more suitable for short prediction horizon, and lower upper bound estimation PIs are more appropriate for longer forecasting horizons.

Uncertainty quantification for wind farm power generation

Accurate forecasting of wind farm power generation is essential for successful operation and management of wind farms and to minimize risks associated with their integration into energy systems. However, due to the inherent wind intermittency, wind power forecasts are highly prone to error and often far from being perfect. The purpose of this paper is to develop statistical methods for quantifying uncertainties associated with wind power generation forecasts. Prediction intervals (PIs) with a prescribed confidence level are constructed using the delta and bootstrap methods for neural network forecasts. The moving block bootstrap method is applied to preserve the correlation structure in wind power observations. The effectiveness and efficiency of these two methods for uncertainty quantification is examined using two month datasets taken from a wind farm in Australia. It is demonstrated that while all constructed PIs are theoretically valid, bootstrap PIs are more informative than delta PIs, and are therefore more useful for decision-making.

Wind farm power uncertainty quantification using a mean-variance estimation method

This paper proposes an innovative optimized parametric method for construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for uncertainty quantification. The mean-variance estimation (MVE) method employs two separate neural network (NN) models to estimate the mean and variance of targets. A new training method is developed in this study that adjusts parameters of NN models through minimization of a PI-based cost functions. A simulated annealing method is applied for minimization of the nonlinear non-differentiable cost function. The performance of the proposed method for PI construction is examined using monthly data sets taken from a wind farm in Australia. PIs for the wind farm power generation are constructed with five confidence levels between 50% and 90%. Demonstrated results indicate that valid PIs constructed using the optimized MVE method have a quality much better than the traditional MVE-based PIs.

Wind-thermal systems operation optimization considering emission problem

This paper proposes a hybrid computational framework based on Sequential Quadratic Programming (SQP) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to address the Combined Unit Commitment and Emission (CUCE) problem. By considering a model which includes both thermal generators and wind farms, the proposed hybrid computational framework can minimize the scheduling cost and greenhouse gases emission cost. The viability of the proposed hybrid technique is demonstrated using a set of numerical case studies. Moreover, comparisons are performed with other optimization algorithms. The simulation results show that our hybrid method is better in terms of the speed and accuracy. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a emission unit commitment model integrating with wind energy and combining the SQP and PSO methods to achieve faster and better performance optimization

Hybrid technique of ant colony and particle swarm optimization for short term wind energy forecasting

Wind farms are producing a considerable portion of the world renewable energy. Since the output power of any wind farm is highly dependent on the wind speed, the power extracted from a wind park is not always a constant value. In order to have a non-disruptive supply of electricity, it is important to have a good scheduling and forecasting system for the energy output of any wind park. In this paper, a new hybrid swarm technique (HAP) is used to forecast the energy output of a real wind farm located in Binaloud, Iran. The technique consists of the hybridization of the ant colony optimization (ACO) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) which are two meta-heuristic techniques under the category of swarm intelligence. The hybridization of the two algorithms to optimize the forecasting model leads to a higher quality result with a faster convergence profile. The empirical hourly wind power output of Binaloud Wind Farm for 364 days is collected and used to train and test the prepared model. The meteorological data consisting of wind speed and ambient temperature is used as the inputs to the mathematical model. The results indicate that the proposed technique can estimate the output wind power based on the wind speed and the ambient temperature with an MAPE of 3.513%.

Stability enhancement of DFIG wind turbine using LQR pitch control over rated wind speed

A novel pitch control design method is proposed for the doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) wind turbine (WT) using linear quadratic regulator (LQR). A seven-order model represents the DFIG WT which is linearized by truncated Taylor series expansion. A systematic approach is adopted to determine the weighting matrices in LQR design for the optimal solution. Simulations have been carried out to compare the performance of the proposed LQR pitch control method against a PI pitch control for small and large disturbances. It is shown that the proposed control method enhances low-voltage ride-through capability and improves system damping under large disturbances.

Improving fault ride through capability of DFIG during RSC flashover fault

Wind power generation is growing rapidly. However, maintaining the wind turbine connection to grid is a real challenge. Recent grid codes require wind turbines to maintain connected to the grid even during fault conditions which increases concerns about its sensitivity to external faults. So, researchers have given attention to investigating the impact of various external faults, and grid disturbances such as voltage sag and short circuit faults, on the fault ride through (FRT) capability of the doubly fed induction generator (DFIG). However, no attention has been given to the impact of internal faults on the dynamic performance of the machine when the fault occurs within the voltage source converters (VSCs) that interface the DFIG with the grid. This paper investigates the impact of the rotor side converter (RSC) IGBT flashover fault on the common coupling (PCC) reactive power and the FRT is proposed. The DFIG compliance with numerous and recently released FRT grid codes under the studied fault, with and without the STATCOM are examined and compared. Furthermore, the capability of a proposed controller to bring the voltage profile at the point of PCC to the nominal steady-state level; maintain the unity power factor operation; and, maintain the connection of the wind turbine to the grid are examined

Agent-based smart grid protection and security

The vision of a smart grid is to provide a modern, resilient, and secure electric power grid as it boasts up with a highly reliable and efficient environment through effective use of its information and communication technology (ICT). Generally, the control and operation of a smart grid which integrate the distributed energy resources (DERs) such as, wind power, solar power, energy storage, etc., largely depends on a complex network of computers, softwares, and communication infrastructure superimposed on its physical grid architecture facilitated with the deployment of intelligent decision support system applications. In recent years, multi-agent system (MAS) has been well investigated for wide area power system applications and specially gained a significant attention in smart grid protection and security due to its distributed characteristics. In this chapter, a MAS framework for smart grid protection relay coordination is proposed, which consists of a number of intelligent autonomous agents each of which are embedded with the protection relays. Each agent has its own thread of control that provides it with a capability to operate the circuit breakers (CBs) using the critical clearing time (CCT) information as well as communicate with each other through high speed communication network. Besides physical failure, since smart grid highly depends on communication infrastructure, it is vulnerable to several cyber threats on its information and communication channel. An attacker who has knowledge about a certain smart grid communication framework can easily compromise its appliances and components by corrupting the information which may destabilize a system results a widespread blackout. To mitigate such risk of cyber attacks, a few innovative counter measuring techniques are discussed in this chapter.

A decentralised multi-agent approach to enhance the stability of smart microgrids with renewable energy

This paper presents the impact of large penetration of wind power on the transient stability through a dynamic evaluation of the critical clearing times (CCTs) by using intelligent agent-based approach. A decentralised multi-agent-based framework is developed, where agents represent a number of physical device models to form a complex infrastructure for computation and communication. They enable the dynamic flow of information and energy for the interaction between the physical processes and their activities. These agents dynamically adapt online measurements and use the CCT information for relay coordination to improve the transient stability of power systems. Simulations are carried out on a smart microgrid system for faults at increasing wind power penetration levels and the improvement in transient stability using the proposed agent-based framework is demonstrated.

Performance evaluation of 3D printed miniature electromagnetic energy harvesters driven by air flow

As a renewable and non-polluting energy source, wind is used to produce electricity via large-diameter horizontal or vertical axis wind turbines. Such large wind turbines have been well designed and widely applied in industry. However, little attention has been paid to the design and development of miniature wind energy harvesters, which have great potential to be applied to the HVAC (heating, ventilating and air conditions) ventilation exhaust systems and household personal properties. In this work, 10 air-driven electromagnetic energy harvesters are fabricated using 3D printing technology. Parametric measurements are then conducted to study the effects of (1) the blade number, (2) its geometric size, (3) aspect ratio, presence or absence of (4) solid central shaft, (5) end plates, and (6) blade orientation. The maximum electrical power is 0.305 W. To demonstrate its practical application, the electricity generated is used to power 4 LED (light-emitting diode) lights. The maximum overall efficiency ηmax is approximately 6.59%. The cut-in and minimum operating Reynolds numbers are measured. The present study reveals that the 3D printed miniature energy harvesters provide a more efficient platform for harnessing ‘wind power’.