Hybrid prediction method for solar power using different computational intelligence algorithms

Computational Intelligence (CI) holds the key to the development of smart grid to overcome the challenges of planning and optimization through accurate prediction of Renewable Energy Sources (RES). This paper presents an architectural framework for the construction of hybrid intelligent predictor for solar power. This research investigates the applicabil- ity of heterogeneous regression algorithms for 6 hour ahead solar power availability forecasting using historical data from Rockhampton, Australia. Real life solar radiation data is collected across six years with hourly resolution from 2005 to 2010. We observe that the hybrid prediction method is suitable for a reliable smart grid energy management. Prediction reliability of the proposed hybrid prediction method is carried out in terms of prediction error performance based on statistical and graphical methods. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid method achieved acceptable prediction accuracy. This potential hybrid model is applicable as a local predictor for any proposed hybrid method in real life application for 6 hours in advance prediction to ensure constant solar power supply in the smart grid operation.

Maximum power point tracking of partial shaded photovoltaic array using an evolutionary algorithm: a particle swarm optimization technique

 Partial shading is one of the unavoidable complications in the field of solar power generation. Although the most common approach in increasing a photovoltaic (PV) array’s efficiency has always been to introduce a bypass diode to the said array, this poses another problem in the form of multi-peaks curves whenever the modules are partially shaded. To further complicate matters, most conventional Maximum Power Point Tracking methods develop errors under certain circumstances (for example, they detect the local Maximum Power Point (MPP) instead of the global MPP) and reduce the efficiency of PV systems even further. Presently, much research has been undertaken to improve upon them. This study aims to employ an evolutionary algorithm technique, also known as particle swarm optimization, in MPP detection. VC 2014 Author(s).

Prediction interval estimation for wind farm power generation forecasts using support vector machines

Accurate forecasting of wind power generation is quite an important as well as challenging task for the system operators and market participants due to its high uncertainty. It is essential to quantify uncertainties associated with wind power generation forecasts for their efficient application in optimal management of wind farms and integration into power systems. Prediction intervals (PIs) are well known statistical tools which are used to quantify the uncertainty related to forecasts by estimating the ranges of the future target variables. This paper investigates the application of a novel support vector machine based methodology to directly estimate the lower and upper bounds of the PIs without expensive computational burden and inaccurate assumptions about the distribution of the data. The efficiency of the method for uncertainty quantification is examined using monthly data from a wind farm in Australia. PIs for short term application are generated with a confidence level of 90%. Experimental results confirm the ability of the method in constructing reliable PIs without resorting to complex computational methods.

Power management and control strategies for efficient operation of a solar power dominated hybrid DC microgrid for remote power applications

In this paper, a hybrid DC microgrid consisting of a diesel generator with a rectifier, a solar photovoltaic (PV) system, and a battery energy storage system is presented in relation to an effective power management strategy and different control techniques are adopted to power electronic interfaces. The solar PV and battery energy storage systems are considered as the main sources of energy sources that supply the load demand on a daily basis whereas the diesel generator is used as a backup for the emergency operation of the microgrid. All system components are connected to a common DC bus through an appropriate power electronics devices (e.g., rectifier systems, DC/DC converter). Also a detailed sizing philosophy of all components along with the energy management strategy is proposed. Energy distribution pattern of each individual component has been conducted based on the monthly basis along with a power management algorithm. The power delivered by the solar PV system and diesel generator is controlled via DC-DC converterand excitation controllers which are designed based on a linearquadratic regulator (LQR) technique as as proportional integral (PI)controllers. The component level power distribution is investigatedusing these controllers under fluctuating load and solar irradiationconditions and comparative results are presented.

Utilising solar energy within conventional coal fired power stations

Although the thermodynamic advantages of using solar energy to replace the bled off steam in the regeneration system of Rankine cycle coal fired power stations has been proven theoretically, the practical techno/economic feasibility of the concept has yet to be confirmed relative to real power station applications. To investigate this concept further, computer modelling software “THERMSOLV” was specifically developed for this project at Deakin University, together with the support of the Victorian power industry and Australian Research Council (ARC). This newly developed software simulates the steam cycle to assess the techno/economic merit of the solar aided concept for various power station structures, locations and local electricity market conditions. Two case studies, one in Victoria Australia and one in Yunnan Province, China, have been carried out with the software. Chapter one of this thesis defines the aims and scope of this study. Chapter two details the literature search in the related areas for this study. The thermodynamic concept of solar aid power generation technology has been described in chapter three. In addition, thermodynamic analysis i.e. exergy/availability has been described in this chapter. The “Thermosolv” software developed in this study is detailed in chapter four with its structure, functions and operation manual included. In chapter five the outcomes of two case studies using the “Thermosolv” software are presented, with discussions and conclusions about the study in chapters 6 and 7 respectfully. The relevant recommendations are then made in chapter eight.

Multi-point and multi-level solar integration into a conventional coal-fired power plant

Solar-aided power generation (SAPG) is capable of integrating solar thermal energy into a conventional thermal power plant, at multi-points and multi-levels, to replace parts of steam extractions in the regenerative Rankine cycle. The integration assists the power plant to reduce coal (gas) consumption and pollution emission or to increase power output. The overall efficiencies of the SAPG plants with different solar replacements of extraction steam have been studied in this paper. The results indicate that the solar thermal to electricity conversion efficiencies of the SAPG system are higher than those of a solar-alone power plant with the same temperature level of solar input. The efficiency with solar input at 330 °C can be as high as 45% theoretically in a SAPG plant. Even the low-temperature solar heat at about 85 °C can be used in the SAPG system to heat the lower temperature feedwater, and the solar to electricity efficiency is nearly 10%. However, the low-temperature heat resource is very hard to be used for power generation in other types of solar power plants. Therefore, the SAPG plant is one of the most efficient ways for solar thermal power generation.

Modelling and power quality analysis of a grid-connected solar PV system

Increased concern about global warming coupled with the escalating demand of energy has driven the conventional power system to be more reliable one by integrating Renewable Energies (RE) in to grid. Over the recent years, integration of solar PV forming a gridconnected PV is considered as one of the most promisingtechnologies to the developed countries like Australia to meet the growing demand of energy. This rapid increase in grid connected photovoltaic (PV) systems has made the supply utilities concerned about the drastic effects that have to be considered on the distribution network in particular voltage fluctuations, harmonic distortions and the Power factor for sustainable power generation. However, irrespective of thefact that the utility grid can accommodate the variability of load or irregular solar irradiance, it is essential to study the impact of grid connected PV systems during higher penetration levels as the intermittent nature of solar PV adversely effects the grid characteristics in meeting the load demand. Hence, keeping this in track, this paper examines the grid-connected PV system considering a residential network of Geelong region (38◦.09' S and 144◦.21’ E) and explores the level of impacts considering summer load profile with a change in the level of integrations. Initially, a PV power system network model is developed in Matlab-Simulink environment and the simulations are carried out to explore the impacts of solar PV penetration at low voltage distribution network considering power quality (PQ) issues such as voltage fluctuations, harmonics distortion at different load conditions.

Short-term load and wind power forecasting using neural network-based prediction intervals

Electrical power systems are evolving from today's centralized bulk systems to more decentralized systems. Penetrations of renewable energies, such as wind and solar power, significantly increase the level of uncertainty in power systems. Accurate load forecasting becomes more complex, yet more important for management of power systems. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in system operations. To quantify potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for the construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly introduced method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied and extended to develop PIs using NN models. A new problem formulation is proposed, which translates the primary multiobjective problem into a constrained single-objective problem. Compared with the cost function, this new formulation is closer to the primary problem and has fewer parameters. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Electrical demands from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia), as well as wind power generation from Capital Wind Farm, are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Comparative results show that the proposed method can construct higher quality PIs for load and wind power generation forecasts in a short time.

Characteristics and applications of energy storage system to power network - A review

Maintaining reliability and stability of a power systems in transmission and distribution level becomes a big challenge in present scenario. Grid operators are always responsible to maintain equilibrium between available power generation and demand of end users. Maintaining grid balance is a bigger issue, in case of any unexpected generation shortage or grid disturbance or integration of any renewable energy sources like wind and solar power in the energy mix. In order to compensate such imbalance and to facilitate more renewable energy sources with the grid, energy storage system (ESS) started to be playing an important role with the advancement of the state of the art technology. ESS can also help to get reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission by means of integrating more renewable energy sources to the grid. There are various types of Energy Storage (ES) technologies which are being used in power systems network from large scale (above 50MW) to small scale (up to 100KW). Based on the characteristics, each storage technology has their own merits and demerits. This paper carried out extensive review study and verifies merits and demerits of each storage technology and identifies the suitable technology for the future. This paper also has conducted feasibility study with the aid of E-SelectTM tool for various ES technologies in applications point of view at different grid locations. This review study helps to evaluate feasible ES technology for a particular electrical application and also helps to develop smart hybrid storage system for grid applications in efficient way.