Stock return predictability and determinants of predictability and profits

We examine stock return predictability for India and find strong evidence of sectoral return predictability over market return predictability. We show that mean-variance investors make statistically significant and economically meaningful profits by tracking financial ratios. For the first time in this literature, we examine the determinants of time-varying predictability and mean-variance profits. We show that both expected and unexpected shocks emanating from most financial ratios explain sectoral return predictability and profits. These are fresh contributions to the understanding of asset pricing.

Credit quality implied momentum profits for Islamic stocks

Using a sample of Asia-Pacific Islamic stocks we show that momentum profits exist regardless of the credit quality of stocks. A portfolio of low credit quality stocks earns 4.68% per annum more than a portfolio of high credit quality stocks. Market risk factors explain all momentum profits, suggesting that profits are compensation for risks. Post-holding period analysis suggests strong evidence of return reversal, consistent with the behavioral hypothesis. Our main results are also robust to sub-samples of data characterized by the recent global financial crisis and to Islamic and non-Islamic based market risk factors.