Testing for a random walk in Italy's inflation in the post-war period, 1947-1996

This paper investigates the unit root properties of Italy’s inflation rate in the post-war period (1947-1996). To achieve the aim of this study, the Zivot and Andrews (1992) one break test and the Lumsdaine and Papell (1997) two breaks test for unit roots are applied. It is found that inflation for Italy was a non-stationary breakpoint for the period 1947-1996. This result has important implications for econometric modeling and in understanding the behavior of shocks to Italy’s inflation.

Testing for the random walk hypothesis in the case of visitor arrivals : evidence from Indian tourism

Testing for the random walk hypothesis, which asserts that a series is a non-stationary process or a unit root process, in the case of visitor arrivals has important implications for policy. If, for instance, visitor arrivals are characterized by a unit root, then it implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are permanent. However, if visitor arrivals are without a unit root, this implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are temporary. This study provides evidence on the random walk hypothesis for visitor arrivals to India using the recently developed Im et al. (2003) and Maddala and Wu (1999) panel unit root tests. Both tests allow one to reject the random walk hypothesis, implying that shocks to visitor arrivals to India from the 10 major source markets have a temporary effect on visitor arrivals.

Are OECD stock prices characterized by a random walk? Evidence from sequential trend break and panel data models

This paper examines whether stock prices for a sample of 22 OECD countries can be best represented as mean reversion or random walk processes. A sequential trend break test proposed by Zivot and Andrews is implemented, which has the advantage that it can take account of a structural break in the series, as well as panel data unit root tests proposed by Im et al., which exploits the extra power in the panel properties of the data. Results provide strong support for the random walk hypothesis.

Is extrapair mating random? On the probability distribution of extrapair young in avian broods

A dichotomy in female extrapair copulation (EPC) behavior, with some females seeking EPC and others not, is inferred if the observed distribution of extrapair young (EPY) over broods differs from a random process on the level of individual offspring (binomial, hypergeometrical, or Poisson). A review of the literature shows such null models are virtually always rejected, with often large effect sizes. We formulate an alternative null model, which assumes that 1) the number of EPC has a random (Poisson) distribution across females (broods) and that 2) the probability for an offspring to be of extrapair origin is zero without any EPC and increases with the number of EPC. Our brood-level model can accommodate the bimodality of both zero and medium rates of EPY typically found in empirical data, and fitting our model to EPY production of 7 passerine bird species shows evidence of a nonrandom distribution of EPY in only 2 species. We therefore argue that 1) dichotomy in extrapair mate choice cannot be inferred only from a significant deviation in the observed distribution of EPY from a random process on the level of offspring and that 2) additional empirical work on testing the contrasting critical predictions from the classic and our alternative null models is required.

Multilabel classification by BCH code and random forests

This paper uses error correcting codes for multilabel classification. BCH code and random forests learner are used to form the proposed method. Thus, the advantage of the error-correcting properties of BCH is merged with the good performance of the random forests learner to enhance the multilabel classification results. Three experiments are conducted on three common benchmark datasets. The results are compared against those of several exiting approaches. The proposed method does well against its counterparts for the three datasets of varying characteristics.

Dual-random ensemble method for multi-label classification of biological data

This paper presents a dual-random ensemble multi-label classification method for classification of multi-label data. The method is formed by integrating and extending the concepts of feature subspace method and random k-label set ensemble multi-label classification method. Experiemental results show that the developed method outperforms the exisiting multi-lable classification methods on three different multi-lable datasets including the biological yeast and genbase datasets.

Random forest based lung nodule classification aided by clustering

An automated lung nodule detection system can help spot lung abnormalities in CT lung images. Lung nodule detection can be achieved using template-based, segmentation-based, and classification-based methods. The existing systems that include a classification component in their structures have demonstrated better performances than their counterparts. Ensemble learners combine decisions of multiple classifiers to form an integrated output. To improve the performance of automated lung nodule detection, an ensemble classification aided by clustering (CAC) method is proposed. The method takes advantage of the random forest algorithm and offers a structure for a hybrid random forest based lung nodule classification aided by clustering. Several experiments are carried out involving the proposed method as well as two other existing methods. The parameters of the classifiers are varied to identify the best performing classifiers. The experiments are conducted using lung scans of 32 patients including 5721 images within which nodule locations are marked by expert radiologists. Overall, the best sensitivity of 98.33% and specificity of 97.11% have been recorded for proposed system. Also, a high receiver operating characteristic (ROC) A_z of 0.9786 has been achieved.

A triple-random ensemble classification method for mining multi-label data

This paper presents a triple-random ensemble learning method for handling multi-label classification problems. The proposed method integrates and develops the concepts of random subspace, bagging and random k-label sets ensemble learning methods to form an approach to classify multi-label data. It applies the random subspace method to feature space, label space as well as instance space. The devised subsets selection procedure is executed iteratively. Each multi-label classifier is trained using the randomly selected subsets. At the end of the iteration, optimal parameters are selected and the ensemble MLC classifiers are constructed. The proposed method is implemented and its performance compared against that of popular multi-label classification methods. The experimental results reveal that the proposed method outperforms the examined counterparts in most occasions when tested on six small to larger multi-label datasets from different domains. This demonstrates that the developed method possesses general applicability for various multi-label classification problems.

Pharmacy access to the emergency contraceptive pill : a national survey of a random sample of Australian women

Background : The emergency contraceptive pill (ECP) has the potential to assist in reducing unintended pregnancy and abortion rates. Since its rescheduling to pharmacy availability without prescription in Australia in January 2004, there is little information about Australian women's knowledge, attitudes and use of the ECP. The aim of this study was to measure the knowledge about the ECP and sociodemographic patterns of and barriers to use of the ECP.

Study Design : A cross-sectional study, using a computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) survey conducted with a national random sample of 632 Australian women aged 16–35 years.

Results : Most women had heard of the ECP (95%) and 26% had used it. The majority of women agreed with pharmacy availability of the ECP (72%); however, only 48% were aware that it was available from pharmacies without a prescription. About a third (32%) believed the ECP to be an abortion pill. The most common reason for not using the ECP was that women did not think they were at risk of getting pregnant (57%). Logistic regression showed that women aged 20–29 years (OR 2.58; CI: 1.29–5.19) and 30–35 years (OR 3.16; CI: 1.47–6.80) were more likely to have used the ECP than those aged 16–19 years. Women with poor knowledge of the ECP were significantly less likely to have used it than those with very good knowledge (OR 0.28; CI: 0.09–0.77). Those in a de facto relationship (OR 2.21; CI: 1.27–3.85), in a relationship but not living with the partner (OR 2.46; 95% CI 1.31–4.63) or single women (OR 2.40; CI: 1.33–4.34) were more likely to have used the ECP than married women.

Conclusions : Women in Australia have a high level of awareness of the ECP, but more information and education about how to use it and where to obtain it are still needed.

Conjugated polymer−titania nanoparticle hybrid films : random lasing action and ultrasensitive detection of explosive vapors

We have first demonstrated that a random laser action generated by a hybrid film composed of a semiconducting organic polymer (SOP) and TiO₂ nanoparticles can be used to detect 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT) vapors. The hybrid film was fabricated by spin-casting SOP solution dispersed with nanosized TiO₂ particles on quartz glass. The SOP in the hybrid film functioned as both the gain medium and the sensory transducer. A random lasing action was observed with a certain pump power when the size (diameter of 50 nm) and concentration (8.9 - 10¹²/cm³) of TiO₂ nanoparticles were optimized. Measurements of fluorescence quenching behavior of the hybrid film in TNT vapor atmosphere (10 ppb) showed that attenuated lasing in optically pumped hybrid film displayed a sensitivity to vapors of explosives more than 20 times higher than was observed from spontaneous emission. This phenomenon has been explained with the four-level laser model. Since the sensory transducer used in the hybrid polymer/nanoparticles system could be replaced by other functional materials, the concept developed could be extended to more general domains of chemical or environment detection.

Human action categorization using conditional random field

Automatic human action recognition has been a challenging issue in the field of machine vision. Some high-level features such as SIFT, although with promising performance for action recognition, are computationally complex to some extent. To deal with this problem, we construct the features based on the Distance Transform of body contours, which is relatively simple and computationally efficient, to represent human action in the video. After extracting the features from videos, we adopt the Conditional Random Field for modeling the temporal action sequences. The proposed method is tested with an available standard dataset. We also testify the robustness of our method on various realistic conditions, such as body occlusion or intersection.

Assessment of fracture risk : value of random population-based samples - the Geelong Osteoporosis Study

Fracture risk is determined by bone mineral density (BMD). The T-score, a measure of fracture risk, is the position of an individual's BMD in relation to a reference range. The aim of this study was to determine the magnitude of change in the T-score when different sampling techniques were used to produce the reference range. Reference ranges were derived from three samples, drawn from the same region: (1) an age-stratified population-based random sample, (2) unselected volunteers, and (3) a selected healthy subset of the population-based sample with no diseases or drugs known to affect bone. T-scores were calculated using the three reference ranges for a cohort of women who had sustained a fracture and as a group had a low mean BMD (ages 35-72 yr; n = 484). For most comparisons, the T-scores for the fracture cohort were more negative using the population reference range. The difference in T-scores reached 1.0 SD. The proportion of the fracture cohort classified as having osteoporosis at the spine was 26, 14, and 23% when the population, volunteer, and healthy reference ranges were applied, respectively. The use of inappropriate reference ranges results in substantial changes to T-scores and may lead to inappropriate management.