Quantitative evaluation in health promotion : evaluation with confidence

Over the past 10 years or so, confidence intervals have become increasingly recognised in program evaluation and quantitative health measurement generally as the preferred way of reporting the accuracy of statistical estimates. Statisticians have found that the more traditional ways of reporting results - using P-values and hypothesis tests - are often very difficult to interpret and can be misleading. This is particularly the case when sample sizes are small and results are 'negative' (ie P>0.05); in these cases, a confidence interval can communicate much more information about the sample and, by inference, about the population. Despite this trend among statisticians and health promotion evaluators towards the use of confidence intervals, it is surprisingly difficult to find succinct and reasonably simple methods to actually compute a confidence interval. This is particularly the case for proportions or percentages. Much of the data which are analysed in health promotion are binary or categorical, rather than the quantities and continuous variables often found in laboratories or other branches of science, so there is a need for health promotion evaluators to be able to present confidence intervals for percentages or proportions. However, the most popular statistical analysis computer package among health promotion professionals, SPSS does not have a routine to compute a simple confidence interval for a proportion! To address this shortcoming, I present in this paper some fairly simple strategies for computing confidence intervals for population percentages, both manually and using the right computer software.

Peripheral quantitative computed tomography in children and adolescents : the 2007 ISCD pediatric official positions

Peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) has mainly been used as a research tool in children. To evaluate the clinical utility of pQCT and formulate recommendations for its use in children, the International Society
of Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) convened a task force to review the literature and propose areas of consensus and future research. The types of pQCT technology available, the clinical application of pQCT for bone health assessment in children, the important elements to be included in a pQCT report, and quality control monitoring techniques were evaluated. The review revealed a lack of standardization of pQCT techniques, and a paucity of data regarding differences between pQCT manufacturers, models and software versions and their impact in pediatric assessment. Measurement sites varied across studies. Adequate reference data, a critical element for interpretation of pQCT results, were entirely lacking, although some comparative data on healthy children were available. The elements of the
pQCT clinical report and quality control procedures are similar to those recommended for dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Future research is needed to establish evidence-based criteria for the selection of the measurement site, scan acquisition and analysis parameters, and outcome measures. Reference data that sufficiently characterize the normal range of variability in the population also need to be established.

Deterministic versus stochastic quantitative microbial Risk Assessment models for wastewater irrigation of food crops

Reuse of wastewater to irrigate food crops is being practiced in many parts of the world and is becoming more commonplace as the competition for, and stresses on, freshwater resources intensify. But there are risks associated with wastewater irrigation, including the possibility of transmission of pathogens causing infectious disease, to both workers in the field and to consumers buying and eating produce irrigated with wastewater. To manage these risks appropriately we need objective and quantitative estimates of them. This is typically achieved through one of two modelling approaches: deterministic or stochastic. Each parameter in a deterministic model is represented by a single value, whereas in stochastic models probability functions are used. Stochastic models are theoretically superior because they account for variability and uncertainty, but they are computationally demanding and not readily accessible to water resource and public health managers. We constructed models to estimate risk of enteric virus infection arising from the consumption of wastewater-irrigated horticultural crops (broccoli, cucumber and lettuce), and compared the resultant levels of risk between the deterministic and stochastic approaches. Several scenarios were tested for each crop, accounting for different concentrations of enteric viruses and different lengths of environmental exposure (i.e. the time between the last irrigation event and harvest, when the viruses are liable to decay or inactivation). In most situations modelled the two approaches yielded similar estimates of risk (within 1 order-of-magnitude). The two methods diverged most markedly, up to around 2 orders-of-magnitude, when there was large uncertainty associated with the estimate of virus concentration and the exposure period was short (1 day). Therefore, in some circumstances deterministic modelling may offer water resource managers a pragmatic alternative to stochastic modelling, but its usefulness as a surrogate will depend upon the level of uncertainty in the model parameters.

Quantitative assessment of through-thickness crack size based on Lamb wave scattering in aluminium plates

The interaction of Lamb wave modes at varying frequencies with a through-thickness crack of different lengths in aluminium plates was analysed in terms of finite element method and experimental study. For oblique-wave incidence, both numerical and experimental results showed that the wave scattering from a crack leads to complicated transmission, reflection and diffraction accompanied by possible wave-mode conversion. A dual-PZT actuation scheme was therefore applied to generate the fundamental symmetrical mode (S0) with enhanced energy to facilitate the identification of crack-scattered wave components. The relationship between crack length and the reflection/transmission coefficient obtained with the aid of the Hilbert transform was established, through which the crack length was quantitatively evaluated. The effects of wavelength of Lamb waves and wave diffraction on the properties of the reflection and transmission coefficients were analysed.

Investigation of telomere lengths measurement by quantitative real-time PCR to predict age

Currently DNA profiling methods only compare a suspect’s DNA with DNA left at the crime scene. When there is no suspect, it would be useful for the police to be able to predict what the person of interest looks like by analysing the DNA left behind in a crime scene. Determination of the age of the suspect is an important factor in creating an identikit. Human somatic cells gradually lose telomeric repeats with age. This study investigated if one could use a correlation between telomere length and age, to predict the age of an individual from their DNA. Telomere length, in buccal cells, of 167 individuals aged between 1 and 96 years old was measured using real-time quantitative PCR. Telomere length decreased with age (r = −0.185, P < 0.05) and the age of an individual could be roughly determined by the following formula: (age = relative telomere length −1.5/−0.005). The regression (R2) value between telomere length and age was not, vert, similar0.04, which is too low to be use for forensics. The causes for the presence of large variation in telomere lengths in the population were further investigated. The age prediction accuracies were low even after dividing samples into non-related Caucasians, males and females (5%, 9% and 1%, respectively). Mean telomere lengths of eight age groups representing each decade of life showed non-linear decrease in telomere length with age. There were variations in telomere lengths even among similarly aged individuals aged 26 years old (n = 10) and age 54 years old (n = 9). Therefore, telomere length measurement by real-time quantitative PCR cannot be used to predict age of a person, due to the presence of large inter-individual variations in telomere lengths.

Quantitative analysis of research mediums' consious experiences during a discarnate reading versus a control task : a pilot study

Mediums claim to be able to report accurate and specific information about the deceased loved ones (termed discarnates) of living people (termed sitters) even without any prior knowledge about the sitters or the discarnates and in the complete absence of any sensory feedback. Despite recent proof-focused experimental research investigating this phenomenon (e.g., Beischel & Schwartz, 2007), no published studies have attempted to quantify the phenomenological effects of discarnate readings. The aim of the present study was, thus, to investigate experimentally the phenomenological differences that arose psychologically in accordance with the demands of a discarnate reading task versus a control task. Seven mediums were administered counter-balanced sequences of a discarnate reading and control condition. The discarnate reading condition consisted of a phone reading including questions about a discarnate where only a blinded medium and a blinded experimenter were on the phone. The control condition consisted of a phone conversation between the medium and the same experimenter in which the medium was asked similar questions regarding a living person s/he (i.e., the medium) knew. Mediums’ phenomenology during each condition was retrospectively assessed using the Phenomenology of Consciousness Inventory (PCI). Phenomenology associated with the discarnate reading condition appeared to be significantly different from phenomenology associated with the control condition. Future research might use the PCI to address whether the phenomenology reported by mediums during discarnate readings is quantitatively different from their experiences during psychic telepathy readings for the living.

Effect of hydrogen/air flow rates and scan rate on the flame ionisation detection response of phopholipids, and their quantitative and qualitative analysis by Iatroscan (Mark‐6s) TLC‐FID

The combined effect of scan speed, hydrogen and air flow rates on the flame ionization detection (FID) peak response of phospholipid classes has been studied to determine the optimum levels of these parameters. The phospholipid composition of different types of commercial lecithins, as well as lecithins combined with fish oils, has been analyzed by Iatroscan TLC‐FID Mark‐6s under optimized conditions. An air flow rate of 2 L/min, a hydrogen flow rate of 150–160 mL/min, and a scan speed of 30 s/rod seem to be the ideal conditions for scanning phospholipids with complete pyrolysis in the flame in the Mark‐6 model. Increasing the scan speed rapidly decreased the FID response. A hydrogen flow rate as high as 170 mL/min could be used at relatively low air flow rates (&#x003C2 L/min) and the response declined when both air flow rate and hydrogen flow rate increased simultaneously. Both linear and curvilinear relationships had highly significant correlations (p&#x003C0.01) with the sample load. Time course reactions, including the hydrolysis of phosphatidylserine using enzymes, can be successfully monitored by the Iatroscan TLC‐FID Chromarod system.

Bone geometry in response to long-term tennis playing and its relationship with muscle volume : a quantitative magnetic resonance imaging study in tennis players

The benefit of impact-loading activity for bone strength depends on whether the additional bone mineral content (BMC) accrued at loaded sites is due to an increased bone size, volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD) or both. Using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), the aim of this study was to characterize the geometric changes of the dominant radius in response to long-term tennis playing and to assess the influence of muscle forces on bone tissue by investigating the muscle–bone relationship. Twenty tennis players (10 men and 10 women, mean age: 23.1 ± 4.7 years, with 14.3 ± 3.4 years of playing) were recruited. The total bone volume, cortical volume, sub-cortical volume and muscle volume were measured at both distal radii by MRI. BMC was assessed by DXA and was divided by the total bone volume to derive vBMD. Grip strength was evaluated with a dynamometer. Significant side-to-side differences (P < 0.0001) were found in muscle volume (+9.7%), grip strength (+13.3%), BMC (+13.5%), total bone volume (+10.3%) and sub-cortical volume (+20.6%), but not in cortical volume (+2.6%, ns). The asymmetry in total bone volume explained 75% of the variance in BMC asymmetry (P < 0.0001). vBMD was slightly higher on the dominant side (+3.3%, P < 0.05). Grip strength and muscle volume correlated with all bone variables (except vBMD) on both sides (r = 0.48–0.86, P < 0.05–0.0001) but the asymmetries in muscle parameters did not correlate with those in bone parameters. After adjustment for muscle volume or grip strength, BMC was still greater on the dominant side. This study showed that the greater BMC induced by long-term tennis playing at the dominant radius was associated to a marked increase in bone size and a slight improvement in volumetric BMD, thereby improving bone strength. In addition to the muscle contractions, other mechanical stimuli seemed to exert a direct effect on bone tissue, contributing to the specific bone response to tennis playing.

A quantitative approach to analysing reliability of engagement responses to dance

Perhaps one of the most important end products of a dance work is how it  effects its observers (typically its audience, but also the dancers and choreographers). Of the many ways of discussing and analysing dance, one
approach in its infancy is quantification. Our research involves combining continuous response techniques and human response methods to see if we can tease out relationships between continuous, quantitative evaluative responses and the more qualitative choreographer intentions. The aim of this paper is to describe how evaluative responses can be quantified at all, then how they can be related to an unfolding dance work, and finally, how we can isolate ‘meaningful’ or ‘significant’ or ‘reliable’ evaluations of a dance work from those which are no more than a spurious set of not-very-useful numbers presented under the guise of a valid assessment.

Where and when to revegetate : a quantitative method for scheduling landscape reconstruction

Restoration of native vegetation is required in many regions of the world, but determining priority locations for revegetation is a complex problem. We consider the problem of determining spatial and temporal priorities for revegetation to maximize habitat for 62 bird species within a heavily cleared agricultural region, 11 000 km2 in area. We show how a reserve-selection framework can be applied to a complex, large-scale restoration-planning problem to account for multi-species objectives and connectivity requirements at a spatial extent and resolution relevant to management. Our approach explicitly accounts for time lags in planting and development of habitat resources, which is intended to avoid future population bottlenecks caused by delayed provision of critical resources, such as tree hollows. We coupled species-specific models of expected habitat quality and fragmentation effects with the dynamics of habitat suitability following replanting to produce species-specific maps for future times. Spatial priorities for restoration were determined by ranking locations (150-m grid cells) by their expected contribution to species habitat through time using the conservation planning tool, ‘‘Zonation.’’ We evaluated solutions by calculating expected trajectories of habitat availability for each species. We produced a spatially explicit revegetation schedule for the region that resulted in a balanced increase in habitat for all species. Priority areas for revegetation generally were clustered around existing vegetation, although not always. Areas on richer soils and with high rainfall were more highly ranked, reflecting their potential to support high-quality habitats that have been disproportionately cleared for agriculture. Accounting for delayed development of habitat resources altered the rank-order of locations in the derived revegetation plan and led to improved expected outcomes for fragmentation-sensitive species. This work demonstrates the potential for systematic restoration planning at large scales that accounts for multiple objectives, which is urgently needed by land and natural resource managers.