34 resultados para Probabilistic choice models


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This study assesses the relevance of role models, specifically sports role models, and the related concepts of anti-heroes and gender to Generation Y consumers in the older age group of 18-29 year olds. A qualitative study, following a post-positivist inquiry paradigm was conducted. The specific research strategy used was grounded theory, utilising deductive thought processes coupled with the process of constant comparison. A series of semi-structured in-depth interviews were carried out. Results suggest that direct relevance to the subject under investigation is a key determinant of role model choice. Gender is also found to have significant effect, as is media, both in the creation of role models and anti-heroes.

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Different European institutions have developed mathematical models to propose maximum safe levels either for fortified foods or for dietary supplements. The objective of the present study was to compare and check the safety of these different maximum safe levels (MSL) by using a probabilistic risk assessment approach. The potential maximum nutritional intakes were estimated by taking into account all sources of intakes (base diet, fortified foods and dietary supplements) and compared with the tolerable upper intake levels for vitamins and minerals. This approach simulated the consequences of both food fortification and supplementation in terms of food safety. Different scenarios were tested. They are the result of the combination of several MSL obtained using the previous models. The study was based on the second French Individual and National Study on Food Consumption performed in 2006–7, matched with the French food nutritional composition database. The analyses were based on a sample of 1918 adults aged 18–79 years. Some MSL in fortified foods and dietary supplements obtained independently were protective enough, although some others could lead to nutritional intakes above the tolerable upper intake levels. The simulation showed that it is crucial to consider the inter-individual variability of fortified food intakes when setting MSL for foods and supplements. The risk assessment approach developed here by integrating the MSL for fortified foods and dietary supplements is useful for ensuring consumer protection. It may be subsequently used to test any other MSL for vitamins and minerals proposed in the future.

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This study examines whether the structure of share ownership or firm's dividend and debt policies provide explanation for firm performances in Malaysia. Firm performance, measured as Tobin's Q is modelled in a dynamic panel framework to estimate effects of director ownership, family ownership, foreign ownership, and firm's dividend and debt policy. The generalised methods of moments (GMM) method is used to estimated the models for 80 CI components companies listed on Main Board of Malaysia observed from 1999 to 2002. The findings reveal strong evidence of positive impact of firm's dividend and debt policy on firm performance. However, ownership structure seems to be less important for market based performance of Malaysian firms: These results are expected to provide guidelines to the investors regarding the significance of firm dividend policy, leverage policy and market to book value ratio as some of the key sources of value creation for Malaysian listed firms.

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This paper addresses the problem of determining which 3D shape is present, and more importantly, the dimensions of the shape in a scene. This is performed in an active vision system because it reduces the complexity of the problem through the use of gaze stabilization, choice of foveation point, and selective processing by adaptively processing regions of interest. In our case, only a small number of equations and parameters are needed for each shape and these are incorporated into functional descriptions of the shapes.

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Surveillance in wide-area spatial environments is characterised by complex spatial layouts, large state space, and the use of multiple cameras/sensors. To solve this problem, there is a need for representing the dynamic and noisy data in the tracking tasks, and dealing with them at different levels of detail. This requirement is particularly suited to the Layered Dynamic Probabilistic Network (LDPN), a special type of Dynamic Probabilistic Network (DPN). In this paper, we propose the use of LDPN as the integrated framework for tracking in wide-area environments. We illustrate, with the help of a synthetic tracking scenario, how the parameters of the LDPN can be estimated from training data, and then used to draw predictions and answer queries about unseen tracks at various levels of detail.

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This paper describes an approach to representing normal activities in a smart house based on the concept of anxiety. Anxiety is computed as a function of time and is kept low by interactions of an occupant with the various devices in a house. Abnormality is indicated by a lack of activity or the wrong activity which will cause anxiety to rise ultimately raising an alarm, querying the occupant and/or alerting a carer in real-time. Anxiety is formulated using probabilistic models that describe how people interact with devices in combinations. These models can be learnt interactively as the smart house acts pessimistically enquiring of the occupant if what they are doing is normal. Results are presented for a number of kitchen scenarios and for different formulations of anxiety.

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This paper addresses the problem of determening which 3D shape is present, and more importantly, the dimensions of the shape within a scene. This is performed in an active vision system because it reduces the complexity of the problem through the use of gaze stabilisation, choice of foveation point and selective processing by adaptively processing regions of interest. In our case only a small number of equations and parameters are needed for each shape. For example, a container has width and height. These are incorporated into functional descriptions of the shapes.

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Recognising behaviours of multiple people, especially high-level behaviours, is an important task in surveillance systems. When the reliable assignment of people to the set of observations is unavailable, this task becomes complicated. To solve this task, we present an approach, in which the hierarchical hidden Markov model (HHMM) is used for modeling the behaviour of each person and the joint probabilistic data association filters (JPDAF) is applied for data association. The main contributions of this paper lie in the integration of multiple HHMMs for recognising high-level behaviours of multiple people and the construction of the Rao-Blackwellised particle filters (RBPF) for approximate inference. Preliminary experimental results in a real environment show the robustness of our integrated method in behaviour recognition and its advantage over the use of Kalman filter in tracking people.

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In this paper we introduce a probabilistic framework to exploit hierarchy, structure sharing and duration information for topic transition detection in videos. Our probabilistic detection framework is a combination of a shot classification step and a detection phase using hierarchical probabilistic models. We consider two models in this paper: the extended Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model (HHMM) and the Coxian Switching Hidden semi-Markov Model (S-HSMM) because they allow the natural decomposition of semantics in videos, including shared structures, to be modeled directly, and thus enabling efficient inference and reducing the sample complexity in learning. Additionally, the S-HSMM allows the duration information to be incorporated, consequently the modeling of long-term dependencies in videos is enriched through both hierarchical and duration modeling. Furthermore, the use of the Coxian distribution in the S-HSMM makes it tractable to deal with long sequences in video. Our experimentation of the proposed framework on twelve educational and training videos shows that both models outperform the baseline cases (flat HMM and HSMM) and performances reported in earlier work in topic detection. The superior performance of the S-HSMM over the HHMM verifies our belief that duration information is an important factor in video content modeling.

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Background
Previous studies have provided mixed evidence with regards to associations between food store access and dietary outcomes. This study examines the most commonly applied measures of locational access to assess whether associations between supermarket access and fruit and vegetable consumption are affected by the choice of access measure and scale.

Method
Supermarket location data from Glasgow, UK (n = 119), and fruit and vegetable intake data from the 'Health and Well-Being' Survey (n = 1041) were used to compare various measures of locational access. These exposure variables included proximity estimates (with different points-of-origin used to vary levels of aggregation) and density measures using three approaches (Euclidean and road network buffers and Kernel density estimation) at distances ranging from 0.4 km to 5 km. Further analysis was conducted to assess the impact of using smaller buffer sizes for individuals who did not own a car. Associations between these multiple access measures and fruit and vegetable consumption were estimated using linear regression models.

Results
Levels of spatial aggregation did not impact on the proximity estimates. Counts of supermarkets within Euclidean buffers were associated with fruit and vegetable consumption at 1 km, 2 km and 3 km, and for our road network buffers at 2 km, 3 km, and 4 km. Kernel density estimates provided the strongest associations and were significant at a distance of 2 km, 3 km, 4 km and 5 km. Presence of a supermarket within 0.4 km of road network distance from where people lived was positively associated with fruit consumption amongst those without a car (coef. 0.657; s.e. 0.247; p0.008).

Conclusions
The associations between locational access to supermarkets and individual-level dietary behaviour are sensitive to the method by which the food environment variable is captured. Care needs to be taken to ensure robust and conceptually appropriate measures of access are used and these should be grounded in a clear a priori reasoning.

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In this paper, hidden Markov models (HMM) is studied for spike sorting. We notice that HMM state sequences have capability to represent spikes precisely and concisely. We build a HMM for spikes, where HMM states respect spike significant shape variations. Four shape variations are introduced: silence, going up, going down and peak. They constitute every spike with an underlying probabilistic dependence that is modelled by HMM. Based on this representation, spikes sorting becomes a classification problem of compact HMM state sequences. In addition, we enhance the method by defining HMM on extracted Cepstrum features, which improves the accuracy of spike sorting. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method as well as the efficiency.

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Biomedical time series clustering that automatically groups a collection of time series according to their internal similarity is of importance for medical record management and inspection such as bio-signals archiving and retrieval. In this paper, a novel framework that automatically groups a set of unlabelled multichannel biomedical time series according to their internal structural similarity is proposed. Specifically, we treat a multichannel biomedical time series as a document and extract local segments from the time series as words. We extend a topic model, i.e., the Hierarchical probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (H-pLSA), which was originally developed for visual motion analysis to cluster a set of unlabelled multichannel time series. The H-pLSA models each channel of the multichannel time series using a local pLSA in the first layer. The topics learned in the local pLSA are then fed to a global pLSA in the second layer to discover the categories of multichannel time series. Experiments on a dataset extracted from multichannel Electrocardiography (ECG) signals demonstrate that the proposed method performs better than previous state-of-the-art approaches and is relatively robust to the variations of parameters including length of local segments and dictionary size. Although the experimental evaluation used the multichannel ECG signals in a biometric scenario, the proposed algorithm is a universal framework for multichannel biomedical time series clustering according to their structural similarity, which has many applications in biomedical time series management.

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This paper introduces an approach to cancer classification through gene expression profiles by designing supervised learning hidden Markov models (HMMs). Gene expression of each tumor type is modelled by an HMM, which maximizes the likelihood of the data. Prominent discriminant genes are selected by a novel method based on a modification of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Unlike conventional AHP, the modified AHP allows to process quantitative factors that are ranking outcomes of individual gene selection methods including t-test, entropy, receiver operating characteristic curve, Wilcoxon test and signal to noise ratio. The modified AHP aggregates ranking results of individual gene selection methods to form stable and robust gene subsets. Experimental results demonstrate the performance dominance of the HMM approach against six comparable classifiers. Results also show that gene subsets generated by modified AHP lead to greater accuracy and stability compared to competing gene selection methods, i.e. information gain, symmetrical uncertainty, Bhattacharyya distance, and ReliefF. The modified AHP improves the classification performance not only of the HMM but also of all other classifiers. Accordingly, the proposed combination between the modified AHP and HMM is a powerful tool for cancer classification and useful as a real clinical decision support system for medical practitioners.

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In an evolutionary model, players from a given population meet randomly in pairs each instant to play a coordination game. At each instant, the learning model used is determined via some replicator dynamics that respects payoff fitness. We allow for two such models: a belief-based best-response model that uses a costly predictor, and a costless reinforcement-based one. This generates dynamics over the choice of learning models and the consequent choices of endogenous variables. We report conditions under which the long run outcomes are efficient (or inefficient) and they support the exclusive use of either of the models (or their co-existence).