Are nominal exchange rates and price levels co-integrated? new evidence from threshold autoregressive and momentum-threshold autoregressive models

The goal of this paper is to examine evidence for co-integration between nominal exchange rates for Canada, the UK, Japan, Germany, Italy and France (G6) vis-à-vis the US dollar, and the relative price ratios using monthly data over the period 1973:01 to 1997:04. Motivated by the fact that exchange rate adjustment may be asymmetric, we allowed for asymmetric adjustment in exchange rates by using the threshold autoregressive model and the momentum threshold autoregressive model. We do not find any evidence of a co-integrating relationship; hence, we fail to establish long-run purchasing power parity.

Economic analysis of a community-based falls prevention program

Objectives: To undertake a cost–benefit analysis of ‘Stay on Your Feet’, a community-based falls prevention program targeting older people at all levels of risk in New South Wales, Australia. Hospital separations were monitored in the intervention region, a control region and for the state of New South Wales as a whole. Changing admission patterns over the intervention period were used to assess the impact of the program.

Methods: Cost–benefit analysis compared the costs of the program with two estimates of savings from avoided hospital admissions. The first compared the cost of hospital admissions in the intervention region to a control region of similar demographics, while the second compared hospital utilization in the intervention region with the state of New South Wales as a whole using falls-related hospital diagnosis related group (DRG) codes.

Results: The total direct costs of the program were estimated at A$781 829. Both methods identified clear overall net benefits ranging from A$5.4 million for avoided hospitalizations alone to A$16.9 million for all avoided direct and indirect costs. The confidence intervals around these estimates were small. The average overall benefit to cost ratio for the intervention as a whole was 20.6:1.

Conclusions: These findings suggest that well-designed community-based interventions targeting falls prevention among older people are highly cost effective and a wise investment for all levels of government. The models used are conservative and are likely to underestimate the real benefit of the intervention, which may have lasted for some time beyond the life of the program.

Measuring the economic impact of falls prevention interventions

The objective of this paper is to assess the appropriateness of available health economic models and concepts in the development of a best practice model to assess community based multifactorial falls prevention programs. To this end, a critical review and synthesis of contemporary published and unpublished  methodological approaches to economic evaluation of health initiatives in general and falls prevention initiatives in particular, has been carried out. The review  indicates that costs, time and utility all need to be taken into consideration when economically evaluating a falls prevention program.

A recommended approach that takes into account a full consideration of relevant costs and benefits associated with falls prevention programs is outlined. This approach can help demonstrate the true relative efficacy of preventing falls over the treatment of their consequences.

Crisis in Clio's family : a study of the discipline of Australian economic history 1918-1965

This thesis presents an intellectual history of the historiography of Australian Economic History between 1918 and 1965. More specifically, it is a contribution to a relatively novel area of research into 'disciplinary history’. It takes as its basic analytical material the four books widely used for significant lengths of time for undergraduate teaching during the period of the study. The thesis consists of five main chapters, plus an appendix which surveys the institutional development of Australian Economic History and provides the empirical basis for the selection of the works named above. After a brief introduction and overview, the next four chapters consist of a detailed study of one of these works, the historical context in which each was written, and an intellectual biography. The fifth chapter is largely theoretical and conceptual. It analyses the epistemological bases of History and Economics and explores the implications of different models of knowledge for the relationship between Economic History and its two antecedent disciplines, History and Economics. Current perceptions of the state of the discipline in Australia and overseas are also examined. There are three main propositions advanced and their implications explored in the fifth chapter. First, that changes which occurred in Australian Economic History during the period 1918-1965 shifted the discipline from the broad area of History to the broad area of Economics. Second, that the inherent tension and fundamental differences between the two disciplinary areas of History and Economics have profound and complex implications for Australian Economic History at a number of levels and in a number of areas. The third proposition posits that the paradigm shift of the 1950s/1960s in Australian Economic History, and the paradigm shift of the 1960s/1970s in Economic History respectively have resulted in crisis. The final part of the chapter summarises the contents of the preceding chapters, and draws some conclusions based on those detailed studies.

Dynamic interactions in models with Kaleckian lags

Provides a careful assessment of previous research on lags in economic models. Several interesting lines of research are opened up. Chief among them is the analysis of bubbles and their bursting in the financial components of economic models.

Simulation models of obesity : a review of the literature and implications for research and policy

Simulation models (SMs) combine information from a variety of sources to provide a useful tool for examining how the effects of obesity unfold over time and impact population health. SMs can aid in the understanding of the complex interaction of the drivers of diet and activity and their relation to health outcomes. As emphasized in a recently released report of the Institute or Medicine, SMs can be especially useful for considering the potential impact of an array of policies that will be required to tackle the obesity problem. The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of existing SMs for obesity. First, a background section introduces the different types of models, explains how models are constructed, shows the utility of SMs and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. Using these typologies, we then briefly review extant obesity SMs. We categorize these models according to their focus: health and economic outcomes, trends in obesity as a function of past trends, physiologically based behavioural models, environmental contributors to obesity and policy interventions. Finally, we suggest directions for future research.

Why has the rising economic tide failed to float the disability employment boat? A call to action : business,community, government and people power

It is well established that people with disabilities are under-represented in the workforce. Disability labour market scholars agree that there is a significant gap between labour market participation of people with disabilities and people without disabilities, with on-going labour market disadvantage widely reported. All indicate that notwithstanding the recent economic growth of Western economies, the employment rate for people with disabilities has not improved. This paper draws on the findings of three recent research projects on disability employment in Australia and on data from contemporary literature on workplace discrimination and proposes that a combination of more robust social inclusion policies and legislation, revitalised supported employment models, intensive social marketing, and radical disability advocacy is required.

An economic analysis of construction industries producer prices in Australia

Research on construction prices is significant for contractors and traders. A comprehensive understanding of construction prices may influence crucial decisions in business operation and arbitrage activities. This study focuses on the cointegration relationships of regional construction prices in Australia by using a range of econometric techniques including the stationarity test, the Engle-Granger cointegration approach and error correction model. The cointegration relationships amongst the regional construction prices are detected in this study. The application of the Engle-Granger cointegration approach examines the long run equilibrium relationships within the regional markets, and the error correction models explore the short run disequilibrium relationships. Results of this study suggest that the economic system in which construction industry participants operate is characterised by a highly competitive integrated marketplace. Furthermore, the causalities and diffusion patterns among the construction price indices in six states and two territories of Australia are drawn by the cointegration analysis. These outcomes reveal a pattern of diffusion paths and network linkages among the six states and two territories, and then expose the regional price linkages.

Designing adaptive artificial agents for an economic production and conflict model

Production and conflict models have been used over the past 30 years to represent the effects of unproductive resource allocation in economics. Their major applications are in modelling the assignment of property rights, rentseeking and defense economics. This paper describes the process of designing an agent used in a production and conflict model. Using the capabilities of an agent-based approach to economic modelling, we have enriched a simple decision-maker of the kind used in classic general equilibrium economic models, to build an adaptive and interactive agent which uses its own attributes, its neighbors’ parameters and information from its environment to make resource allocation decisions. Our model presents emergent and adaptive behaviors than cannot be captured using classic production and conflict agents. Some possible extensions for future applications are also recommended.

Trade and industrial policy in developing countries : what scope for interfaces between agent-based models and computable-general equilibrium models

How best to assess trade and industrial policy in developing countries is a controversial question that unlocks a host of modelling complexities. Large computable general-equilibrium (CGE) models dominate many economic policy debates, but recent developments in the field have demonstrated that it is by no means clear that they give reliable results to questions of how trade reforms affect the poor. Over the last decade or so, a new approach to modelling complex systems has emerged using agent-based models (ABMs). This paper explores the question of whether ABMs are useful for economic policy-makers seeking to quantitatively model the effects of trade and industrial policies and whether constructive interfaces could be developed between CGE models and ABMs. The paper argues that in developing economic policy, ABMs can and should be used in conjunction with CGE models and that there is much to be gained from a greater understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different modelling approaches, and what domains are most appropriate for their use. It concludes with some reflections on the reasons for the success of CGE approaches and ways in which ABMs could be made more widely understood and used among economists.

Building an economic case for food interventions in the pacific

Diet-related health problems are a major issue throughout the Pacific region. Micronutrient deficiencies are widespread and rates of non-communicable diseases are increasing. There is a need for food-related policy interventions to improve the quality of the food supply and to enhance access to a healthy diet. To support the promotion and eventual implementation of these interventions, it is vital that the costs and impacts of the interventions are known. This paper outlines a project being undertaken in the region to develop cost-effectiveness models for food interventions in order to help build the case for action.

The societal benefits of reducing six behavioural risk factors : an economic modelling study from Australia

Background
A large proportion of disease burden is attributed to behavioural risk factors. However, funding for public health programs in Australia remains limited. Government and non-government organisations are interested in the productivity effects on society from reducing chronic diseases. We aimed to estimate the potential health status and economic benefits to society following a feasible reduction in the prevalence of six behavioural risk factors: tobacco smoking; inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption; high risk alcohol consumption; high body mass index; physical inactivity; and intimate partner violence.
Methods
Simulation models were developed for the 2008 Australian population. A realistic reduction in current risk factor prevalence using best available evidence with expert consensus was determined. Avoidable disease, deaths, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and health sector costs were estimated. Productivity gains included workforce (friction cost method), household production and leisure time. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and correction for the joint effects of risk factors on health status were undertaken. Consistent methods and data sources were used.
Results
Over the lifetime of the 2008 Australian adult population, total opportunity cost savings of AUD2,334 million (95% Uncertainty Interval AUD1,395 to AUD3,347; 64% in the health sector) were found if feasible reductions in the risk factors were achieved. There would be 95,000 fewer DALYs (a reduction of about 3.6% in total DALYs for Australia); 161,000 less new cases of disease; 6,000 fewer deaths; a reduction of 5 million days in workforce absenteeism; and 529,000 increased days of leisure time.
Conclusions
Reductions in common behavioural risk factors may provide substantial benefits to society. For example, the total potential annual cost savings in the health sector represent approximately 2% of total annual health expenditure in Australia. Our findings contribute important new knowledge about productivity effects, including the potential for increased household and leisure activities, associated with chronic disease prevention. The selection of targets for risk factor prevalence reduction is an important policy decision and a useful approach for future analyses. Similar approaches could be applied in other countries if the data are available.

The economic benefits of reducing physical inactivity : an Australian example

Background: Physical inactivity has major impacts on health and productivity. Our aim was to estimate the health and economic benefits of reducing the prevalence of physical inactivity in the 2008 Australian adult population. The economic benefits were estimated as ‘opportunity cost savings’, which represent resources utilized in the treatment of preventable disease that are potentially available for re-direction to another purpose from fewer incident cases of disease occurring in communities.
Methods: Simulation models were developed to show the effect of a 10% feasible, reduction target for physical inactivity from current Australian levels (70%). Lifetime cohort health benefits were estimated as fewer incident cases of inactivity-related diseases; deaths; and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) by age and sex. Opportunity costs were estimated as health sector cost impacts, as well as paid and unpaid production gains and leisure impacts from fewer disease events associated with reduced physical inactivity. Workforce production gains were estimated by comparing surveyed participation and absenteeism rates of physically active and inactive adults, and valued using the friction cost approach. The impact of an improvement in health status on unpaid household production and leisure time were modeled from time use survey data, as applied to the exposed and non-exposed population subgroups and valued by suitable proxy. Potential costs associated with interventions to increase physical activity were not included. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and univariate sensitivity analyses were undertaken to provide information on the strength of the conclusions.
Results: A 10% reduction in physical inactivity would result in 6,000 fewer incident cases of disease, 2,000 fewer deaths, 25,000 fewer DALYs and provide gains in working days (114,000), days of home-based production (180,000) while conferring a AUD96 million reduction in health sector costs. Lifetime potential opportunity cost savings in workforce production (AUD12 million), home-based production (AUD71 million) and leisure-based production (AUD79 million) was estimated (total AUD162 million 95% uncertainty interval AUD136 million, AUD196 million).
Conclusions: Opportunity cost savings and health benefits conservatively estimated from a reduction in population-level physical inactivity may be substantial. The largest savings will benefit individuals in the form of unpaid production and leisure gains, followed by the health sector, business and government.

Intellectual property, creativity and innovation : IP models and the political economy of developing Asia

In advanced capitalist societies, intellectual property laws protecting such subject matter as copyright and patents are justified by a combination of theories, which include the provision of economic incentives to foster creativity and innovation and the prevention of unfair competition. IP academics and policy makers have differing views about the appropriate balance between these objectives and public interest considerations such as health, education and the protection of the environment. These different views entered the policy debate in Asian developing countries in connection with an unprecedented introduction and expansion of IP laws over the last 25 years. This paper will use case studies of law reform from Asia, in particular Southeast Asia, to show that the policy considerations of governments in reforming their laws were often quite different from the standard rationale mentioned above. As much of the IP was, at least initially, held by foreigners and introduced to attract foreign investment, national development considerations were joined with the more commonly quoted objectives to promote the rights, creativity and innovation of individuals. Such national development objectives at times coincided and at other times collided with official explanations and received wisdom about the effects of stronger IP rights.

Especially in the early postcolonial period, copyright laws and other IP laws were frequently restricted or simply not implemented, if they conflicted with development policies in areas such as education or public health. Such policies were slowly changing in the wake of WTO-TRIPS and other international agreements. Nevertheless, the implementation and enforcement of the IP laws has been uneven. Specialised institutions such as courts and IP administering agencies compete with other branches of government and administration for limited funding and a rich repertoire of informal dispute settlement procedures has kept the number of court cases relatively low. In some countries, censorship laws have influenced freedom of expression and led to quite idiosyncratic interpretations of intellectual property laws. Governments often also retain a role in the assessment of licensing and technology transfer contracts. And while there are many programs to foster individual creativity, in most cases R & D activities are still largely taking place in government institutions and this has influenced the thinking about intellectual property rights and creativity in the context of employment.

The paper uses a few case studies to examine the implementation of IP laws in selected Asian developing countries to point to the quite different institutional setting for IP law reform in comparison to European or American models. It reaches some tentative conclusions as to the likely effects on creativity and innovation under these different circumstances.

Accounting for the multidimensional nature of the relationship between adult obesity and socio-economic status : the French second National Individual Survey on Food Consumption (INCA 2) dietary survey (2006–07)

The objective was to study the multidimensional nature of the relationship between adult obesity (OB) and socio-economic status (SES),
using comprehensive indices of SES taken separately or synthesised in an overall index. A nationally representative sample of adults aged
18–79 years was taken from the French second National Individual Survey on Food Consumption (INCA 2) dietary survey (2006–07).
Weight and height were measured and OB defined as BMI $ 30 kg/m². SES variables were reported in questionnaires and included
occupation, education and characteristics of household wealth. Composite indices of SES (household wealth and overall SES indices)
were computed by correspondence analysis, and relationships with OB were investigated with logistic regression analysis. In total, 11·8
(95% CI 10·1, 13·4) % of French adults were obese, without significant difference by sex. While no significant relationship was observed
in men, all SES indicators were inversely correlated to OB in women. Both education and the household wealth index were retained in the
stepwise multivariate model, confirming that different socio-economic variables are not necessarily proxies of each other regarding the OB
issue. On the other hand, ‘controlling for SES’ while including several measures of SES in multivariate models may lead to collinearity, and
thus over-adjustment. A more integrative approach may be to derive a synthetic index by including the SES factors available in a given
study. Beyond this methodological perspective, understanding how OB is related to the different dimensions of SES should help to
target the more vulnerable groups and increase the effectiveness of prevention.